[ExI] Oil will never run out
kevinfreels at insightbb.com
Fri Jun 27 19:12:24 UTC 2008
I want to take a moment to oficially revise my former position that one day the oil will run out and we had better have an alternative ready.
It was very foolish of me to think this. The infrastructure in place and all the manufacture and existing machines that all require gasoline are almost impossibly expensive to replace - espcially in a short 10-20 year period.
Instead, the easier approach will have to take place. Finding a way to make gasoline and jet fuel that is easier and less expensive than getting it out of the ground and refining it while making it out of something fairly renewable that can be sustained over a long term.
As soon as I started looking for such things I found dozens of companies already on track to do this. There is no reason why it can't be done. Oil itself already has been made by accident in nature. Making something better faster is only a matter of determination and money. With the current gas prices, suddenly there are both.
I now think that sooner rather than later, someone will have a readily available alternative way to manufacture gasoline and jet fuel that will work on existing equipment and engines without any modification. The fuel will be made from readily available waste - ie lawn clippings, garbage, industrial waste, etc. The cost will be far less than standard production techniques.
Doe to the low production cost the techniques will spread rapidly. The right genetically engineered organisms may very well make their way into an "open source gas production" type of system and many will be able to make their own gas in their own homes. Others who don't want to go through that trouble will be able to buy it dirt cheap. And rather than using up the very last of the oil in the fields, the remaining oil will be left forever in the wells no more useful or necessary than all the trees.
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