[ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 57, Issue 25
soenja lammers
soenjalammers at hotmail.com
Sun Jun 29 21:12:05 UTC 2008
hello ?
----------------------------------------
> From: extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org
> Subject: extropy-chat Digest, Vol 57, Issue 25
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 20:55:26 +0000
>
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> Today's Topics:
>
> 1. Re: putative quantum computing breakthrough (Lee Corbin)
> 2. Re: Oil will never run out (hkhenson)
> 3. Re: putative quantum computing breakthrough (Lee Corbin)
> 4. "Martian Soil Appears Able to Support Life" (Amara Graps)
> 5. Re: Prufrock (Damien Broderick)
> 6. Etna, silhouetted by a dawn sky (Amara Graps)
> 7. Re: Oil will never run out (Kevin Freels)
> 8. Re: putative quantum computing breakthrough (scerir)
> 9. Re: putative quantum computing breakthrough (spike)
> 10. Re: Oil will never run out (Dagon Gmail)
> 11. Re: Oil will never run out (Damien Broderick)
> 12. Re: Prufrock (BillK)
> 13. Re: Prufrock (Damien Broderick)
> 14. Re: Oil will never run out (hkhenson)
> 15. Re: Oil will never run out (Mike Dougherty)
> 16. Re: Oil will never run out (spike)
> 17. Re: Oil will never run out (Lee Corbin)
> 18. Re: Oil will never run out (MB)
> 19. Re: Prufrock (Jeff Davis)
> 20. Re: Oil will never run out (hkhenson)
> 21. Re: Oil will never run out (Kevin Freels)
> 22. Re: Oil will never run out (Bryan Bishop)
> 23. Re: Oil will never run out (Bryan Bishop)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:51:09 -0700
> From: "Lee Corbin"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] putative quantum computing breakthrough
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="Windows-1252";
> reply-type=original
>
> Jeff writes
>
>
>> The weirdness of quantum phenomena still puzzles and disorients me.
>> Occasionally though, within the shifting mists of Maya, I glimpse
>> something that gives me hope of someday making sense of it all,
>> whatever "it all" is. Then, just as quickly, the something disappears
>> back into the mist, and I'm left as if standing alone at night on a
>> country road, the stillness returning, the car that roared by now just
>> the glow of a couple of fire flies in formation chasing a fleeting
>> phantom into the distant silence.
>
> Yes! I've had this same sensation of "bait and snatch". I dunno
> what's wrong---expectations set too high or what.
>
> You write that poem? It's pretty good, at any rate.
>
> Lee
>
>> No doubt the next gen, less burdened by an iconic habit of classicism,
>> will stumble a bit closer to an answer.
>>
>> LET us go then, you and I,
>> When the evening is spread out against the sky
>> Like a patient etherised upon a table;
>> Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
>> The muttering retreats 5
>> Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
>> And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
>> Streets that follow like a tedious argument
>> Of insidious intent
>> To lead you to an overwhelming question ? 10
>> Oh, do not ask, "What is it?"
>> Let us go and make our visit.
>>
>> Indeed. Let us go and make our visit.
>>
>> Best, Jeff Davis
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 2
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:29:07 -0700
> From: hkhenson
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 12:59 PM 6/27/2008, Bryan Bishop wrote:
>>On Friday 27 June 2008, Kevin Freels wrote:
>
> snip
>
> I wish that the knowledge of first semester thermodynamics and high
> school chemistry were universal on this list.
>
> It's not a big deal to make hydrocarbons out of biomass or even to
> use CO2 pulled out of the air. All it takes is industrial plant and
> *lots* of energy. On an industrial scale, you can make gasoline for
> about a dollar a gallon from electric power at a penny a kWh, or ten
> dollar a gallon gasoline out of 10 cents a kWh power. Do a bit of
> research on Wikipedia or Google. Read
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_monoxide
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boudouard_reaction
>
> http://www.doitpoms.ac.uk/tlplib/ellingham_diagrams/index.php
>
> Click on The interactive Ellingham diagram, click on oxide, click on
> carbon, click on "see"
>
> I.e., if you have carbon and carbon dioxide you can make carbon
> monoxide if the conditions are hot enough. You can also directly
> react C02 and hydrogen.
>
> You need to know that the reaction of steam and carbon is endothermic
> (absorbs energy) so this is a place where low cost electrical energy
> could be fed into a synthetic fuels process.
>
> H2O + C -->> H2 + CO
> Delta H = 131 kJ/mol
>
> You should read up on:
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol
>
> Which are about how to convert syngas to liquid fuels. There are
> other ways as well; some people are proposing to feed syngas to
> bacteria that convert it to ethanol.
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasification
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_arc_gasification
>
> http://www.plascoenergygroup.com/
>
> A 400 ton/day plant is being scaled up from a 100 ton per day
> demonstration plant. Any readers in Canada, they are looking for a
> bunch of people to staff the new operation Ottawa, Ontario.
>
> There are a number of difficult problems with processing trash. It's
> really variable. It has chlorinated stuff in it like PVC
> plastics. (That's where the salt comes from, I suspect they add
> sodium carbonate to wash out the HCl.)
>
> Now as an exercise, figure out how much synthetic gasoline per day
> could be made using the syngas from this operation?
>
> Keith
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 3
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 02:18:02 -0700
> From: "Lee Corbin"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] putative quantum computing breakthrough
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="Windows-1252";
> reply-type=original
>
> Oh no! Jeff points out that I had failed to recognized
> "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock".
>
> Well, it's to be expected. :-( The only line I remember
> from seeing that thing in college is the one that makes
> me damn glad that Eliot lived in the 1920s and not the 1990s.
>
> For, otherwise, we would all know
>
> "The women come and go,
> speaking of fellatio."
>
> Lee
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lee Corbin"
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Sent: Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:51 AM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] putative quantum computing breakthrough
>
>
>> Jeff writes
>>
>> You write that poem? It's pretty good, at any rate.
>>
>> Lee
>>
>>> No doubt the next gen, less burdened by an iconic habit of classicism,
>>> will stumble a bit closer to an answer.
>>>
>>> LET us go then, you and I,
>>> When the evening is spread out against the sky
>>> Like a patient etherised upon a table;
>>> Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
>>> The muttering retreats 5
>>> Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
>>> And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
>>> Streets that follow like a tedious argument
>>> Of insidious intent
>>> To lead you to an overwhelming question ? 10
>>> Oh, do not ask, "What is it?"
>>> Let us go and make our visit.
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 4
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 10:04:01 -0600
> From: Amara Graps
> Subject: [ExI] "Martian Soil Appears Able to Support Life"
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" ; format="flowed"
>
> From the hyperbolic press release:
>
>> "It is the type of soil you would probably have in your back yard,
>> you know, alkaline. You might be able to grow asparagus in it really
>> well. ... It is very exciting for us."
>
>
> MB:
>>Interesting. Most everyplace I've lived has somewhat acidic soil....
>
> Also in Antarctica.. which is sometimes used as Mars analogs.
>
> Amara
>
> --
>
> Amara Graps, PhD www.amara.com
> Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boulder, Colorado
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 5
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 11:42:51 -0500
> From: Damien Broderick
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Prufrock
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 02:18 AM 6/28/2008 -0700, Lee wrote:
>
>>"The women come and go,
>>speaking of fellatio."
>
> Actually no, that is The Love That Cannot Speak Its Name.
>
> Damien Broderick
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 6
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 10:54:38 -0600
> From: Amara Graps
> Subject: [ExI] Etna, silhouetted by a dawn sky
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org, wta-talk at transumanism.org,
> act at lists.crackmuppet.org
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" ; format="flowed"
>
>
> In the last days I put in a marathon effort to finish the latest and,
> hopefully, near-last, revisions of my popsci article 'how did Earth get
> its water ?' story. While the answer is complicated, one of the
> processes to release the volatiles to the atmosphere has been known for
> a long time- volcanoes.
>
> However, we can view the role of volcanoes in a more primordial way.
>
> What we witness in a volcanic eruption is the energy left from the
> formation of the Earth and the subsequent meteoritic impacts.
>
>
> Etna, silhouetted by a dawn sky, June 28, 2008
>
> The Earth is breathing.
>
> Here we have opposite views on the same flow, silhouetted by a dawn sky.
> At times it is difficult to know where the clouds begin and end.
>
>
> View the images below as a set of pairs, one "a" photo in one window,
> and the corresponding "b" photo in an adjacent window.
>
> This is a mini-time series, from the top down, with the dawn breaking
> in blues and grays, initially, and then opening up the sky and mixing
> with the gas and dust from Etna: yellows and oranges.
>
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_a1_28June08.jpg
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_b1_28June08.jpg
>
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_a2_28June08.jpg
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_b2_28June08.jpg
>
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_a3_28June08.jpg
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_b3_28June08.jpg
>
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_a7_28June08.jpg
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/etna_sunrise_b7_28June08.jpg
>
>
> I can't wait until my unborn is born and big enough to
> introduce him/her to these volcanoes. :-)
>
> http://www.amara.com/volcanoes/volcanoes.html
>
>
> Amara
>
> --
>
> Amara Graps, PhD www.amara.com
> Research Scientist, Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Boulder, Colorado
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 7
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 12:02:06 -0500
> From: Kevin Freels
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
>
>
>>
>> It's not a big deal to make hydrocarbons out of biomass or even
>> to
>> use CO2 pulled out of the air. All it takes is industrial
>> plant and
>> *lots* of energy. On an industrial scale, you can make
>> gasoline for
>> about a dollar a gallon from electric power at a penny a kWh, or
>> ten
>> dollar a gallon gasoline out of 10 cents a kWh power.
>
> So the price of the gas could be related to the price of electricity and NOT based on the amount of oil in the ground. So the solution here is more cheap electricity which I think is a much simpler solution than developing an entirely new infrastructure to support new technologies for transportation.
>
> Here's some links to efforts that are up and coming...
>
> http://www.ls9.com/
> http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1979Sci...206...57W
> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11653571/ Gasoline from cattle dung.... Hope my car doesn't run like crap!
>
> There are a lot of companies working on this and I think it's just a matter of time before it happens. And it's not 10, 20, or 30 years into the future. It's a few years away. By 2039 when some suggest we'll be out of oil, people most companies won't want to waste the money it costs to drill, pump, transport, and refine the "real" stuff.
> No doubt the development costs will keep these people from releasing their gen en bacteria to the general population for my "open source gas factories" but never underestimate the the ingenuity of human beings. Espionage, the balck market for trade secrets and other such things will cause this little germ to eventually venture out into the world. Trade Secrets tend not to remain trade secrets for very long. I do hope they make their money back and a decent profit before this happens though.
> -------------- next part --------------
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> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 8
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 19:37:38 +0200
> From: "scerir"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] putative quantum computing breakthrough
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252"
>
> The weirdness of quantum phenomena still puzzles
> and disorients me. Occasionally though, within
> the shifting mists of Maya, I glimpse something
> that gives me hope of someday making sense of it all,
> whatever "it all" is.
>
>
> # Jeff, this "hope of someday making sense of it all,
> whatever 'it all' is" seems to be the essence of all
> quantal mysteries.
>
> Whatever the nature of QT (epistemic, physical,
> subjective, a syntax, an operating system, all
> of these) it is interesting to ask if a sort of
> 'quantum interrogation' could explain, in the far
> future, all those mysteries.
>
> I mean, could QT explain itself
> to us, via 'quantum interrogation'?
> http://www.physorg.com/news11087.html
>
> (Are there SF stories with the above?)
>
> s.
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 9
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 11:11:48 -0700
> From: "spike"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] putative quantum computing breakthrough
> To: "'Lee Corbin'" , "'ExI chat list'"
>
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
>
>
>> Jeff writes
>>
>>
>>> The weirdness of quantum phenomena still puzzles and disorients me.
>>> Occasionally though, within the shifting mists of Maya, I glimpse
>>> something that gives me hope of someday making sense of it all,
>>> whatever "it all" is. Then, just as quickly, the something
>> disappears
>>> back into the mist, and I'm left as if standing alone at night on a
>>> country road, the stillness returning, the car that roared
>> by now just
>>> the glow of a couple of fire flies in formation chasing a fleeting
>>> phantom into the distant silence.>> Best, Jeff Davis
>>
> ...
>>
>> You write that poem? It's pretty good, at any rate... Lee.
>
>
> Ja our own Jeff Davis has offered an occasional modest glimpse at his
> literary prowess. The quantum weirdness paragraph soars with eagles. Jeff
> we are lucky to have you among us bud. Between you and Damien, the ExI list
> could accept writing challenge the English majors club might want to name.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 10
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 20:58:07 +0200
> From: "Dagon Gmail"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> I want to take a moment to oficially revise my former position that one day
> the oil will run out and we had better have an alternative ready.
>>
>>
>> It was very foolish of me to think this. The infrastructure in place and
>> all the manufacture and existing machines that all require gasoline are
>> almost impossibly expensive to replace - espcially in a short 10-20 year
>> period.
>>
>> Instead, the easier approach will have to take place. Finding a way to make
>> gasoline and jet fuel that is easier and less expensive than getting it out
>> of the ground and refining it while making it out of something fairly
>> renewable that can be sustained over a long term.
>>
>> As soon as I started looking for such things I found dozens of companies
>> already on track to do this. There is no reason why it can't be done. Oil
>> itself already has been made by accident in nature. Making something better
>> faster is only a matter of determination and money. With the current gas
>> prices, suddenly there are both.
>>
>> I now think that sooner rather than later, someone will have a readily
>> available alternative way to manufacture gasoline and jet fuel that will
>> work on existing equipment and engines without any modification. The fuel
>> will be made from readily available waste - ie lawn clippings, garbage,
>> industrial waste, etc. The cost will be far less than standard production
>> techniques.
>>
>> Doe to the low production cost the techniques will spread rapidly. The
>> right genetically engineered organisms may very well make their way into an
>> "open source gas production" type of system and many will be able to make
>> their own gas in their own homes. Others who don't want to go through that
>> trouble will be able to buy it dirt cheap. And rather than using up the
>> very last of the oil in the fields, the remaining oil will be left forever
>> in the wells no more useful or necessary than all the trees.
>>
>>
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escapism
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stupidity
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> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 11
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 14:34:54 -0500
> From: Damien Broderick
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 08:58 PM 6/28/2008 +0200, Dagon wrote:
>>
>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking
>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial
>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escapism
>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stupidity
>
> Very likely, but http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulverism
>
> Damien Broderick
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 12
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:05:22 +0100
> From: BillK
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Prufrock
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=WINDOWS-1252
>
> On Sat, Jun 28, 2008 at 5:42 PM, Damien Broderick wrote:
>> At 02:18 AM 6/28/2008 -0700, Lee wrote:
>>
>>>"The women come and go,
>>>speaking of fellatio."
>>
>> Actually no, that is The Love That Cannot Speak Its Name.
>>
>
>
> Strewth! I think you need an explanatory chapter to your witty references. :)
>
> I eventually found the quote from Kenneth Tynan:
> Fellatio: the sin that cannot speak its name, because its mouth is full.
>
> There is also:
> Necrophilia: The Love That Cannot Speak its Name. (Especially if
> You're the Dead One).
>
> I also found
> The love that dare not speak its name is the final line from the poem
> "Two Loves" by Lord Alfred Douglas, published in 1894. It was
> mentioned at Oscar Wilde's gross indecency trial, and it is
> classically interpreted as a euphemism for homosexuality.
>
> But then I googled on "That dare not Speak Its Name" only,
> and got 146,000 hits. The phrase is so good that it has been attached
> to many, many things.
>
> I especially liked:
>
> Shitterton: The village that dare not speak its name
> This isn't the only place in Britain proudly to wear the Shit? prefix
> ? an unholy trinity is formed with Shittlehope and Shitlington Crags,
> both in the North-east of England ? but Shitterton is the only one of
> the three actually to be named after excrement. According to the
> mathematician Keith Briggs, who keeps an informative website on this
> burning topic, the name is probably derived from a river called
> Shiter, "a brook used as a privy".
> -----------
>
>
> BillK
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 13
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 15:38:01 -0500
> From: Damien Broderick
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Prufrock
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 09:05 PM 6/28/2008 +0100, BillK wrote:
>
>>Strewth! I think you need an explanatory chapter to your witty
>>references. :)
>
> Drat, I'd hoped it was self-evident.
>
>>Kenneth Tynan:
>>Fellatio: the sin that cannot speak its name, because its mouth is full.
>
> Just so. He was a witty feller.
>
>>The love that dare not speak its name is the final line from the poem
>>"Two Loves" by Lord Alfred Douglas, published in 1894. It was
>>mentioned at Oscar Wilde's gross indecency trial, and it is
>>classically interpreted as a euphemism for homosexuality.
>
> Well, yes. I didn't think it would be necessary to footnote that. Ah well.
>
>>Shitterton: The village that dare not speak its name
>
> That's hilarious! Omg.
>
> Damien Broderick
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 14
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 14:22:50 -0700
> From: hkhenson
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 10:02 AM 6/28/2008, Kevin wrote:
>
> snip
>
>>So the price of the gas could be related to the price of electricity
>>and NOT based on the amount of oil in the ground. So the solution
>>here is more cheap electricity which I think is a much simpler
>>solution than developing an entirely new infrastructure to support
>>new technologies for transportation.
>
> That's what I have been talking about here for months. But making
> huge amounts of cheap electricity is not a small problem. Even if
> the cost per kWh is low, setting up to manufacture (for example)
> space based solar power plants is on a par with the Iraq war.
>
>>Here's some links to efforts that are up and coming...
>>
>>http://www.ls9.com/
>>http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1979Sci...206...57W
>>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11653571/
>>Gasoline from cattle dung.... Hope my car doesn't run like crap!
>>
>>There are a lot of companies working on this and I think it's just a
>>matter of time before it happens. And it's not 10, 20, or 30 years
>>into the future. It's a few years away. By 2039 when some suggest
>>we'll be out of oil, people most companies won't want to waste the
>>money it costs to drill, pump, transport, and refine the "real" stuff.
>>No doubt the development costs will keep these people from releasing
>>their gen en bacteria to the general population for my "open source
>>gas factories" but never underestimate the the ingenuity of human
>>beings. Espionage, the balck market for trade secrets and other such
>>things will cause this little germ to eventually venture out into
>>the world. Trade Secrets tend not to remain trade secrets for very
>>long. I do hope they make their money back and a decent profit
>>before this happens though.
>
> The energy problem is dominated not be trade secrets, but by hard
> chemical and physical laws. Oil is energy dense. In the best cases
> it takes little processing before you can use it for transportation
> fuel. I know about this, not only from studying chemistry since
> junior high school, but from having worked in a refinery that
> processed several percent of the oil the US was using around 1980.
>
> Take that 400 ton per day trash to energy plant. How much does 480
> MWh amount to in gasoline? There is about 38 kWh in a gallon of
> gasoline. At 100% you could make 480,000/38 or about 12,600 gallons
> a day. That's enough for a 15 gallon fill up for 840 people every
> day. Because there are about 840,000 people in Ottawa you could get
> one fill up per person about every 3 years.
>
> Another way to look at it is US gasoline consumption of 386 million
> gallons a day. 386,000,000/12,600 is around 30,000. At 400 tons per
> day, these plants would process about 4,500 million tons of waste a
> year--which is about 18 times the trash we actually generate.
>
> I hope these numbers gives you a feel for the scale of the energy problem.
>
> Keith
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 15
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:14:41 -0400
> From: "Mike Dougherty"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> On Sat, Jun 28, 2008 at 5:22 PM, hkhenson wrote:
>
>> Another way to look at it is US gasoline consumption of 386 million
>> gallons a day. 386,000,000/12,600 is around 30,000. At 400 tons per
>> day, these plants would process about 4,500 million tons of waste a
>> year--which is about 18 times the trash we actually generate.
>>
>
> So you're saying we need to generate 18 times more trash? It may take some
> work, but I think Americans are up to the challenge.
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> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 16
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 22:23:27 -0700
> From: "spike"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: "'ExI chat list'"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
>
>
>
>> ...On Behalf Of hkhenson
> ...
>>
>> The energy problem is dominated not be trade secrets, but by
>> hard chemical and physical laws. Oil is energy dense...
>> 840,000 people in Ottawa you could get one fill up per person
>> about every 3 years... I hope these numbers gives you a feel for the scale
> of the energy problem... Keith
>
>
> Thanks for pointing this out Keith. The next few years will surely give the
> masses a hard education in physics and engineering. We will come to
> understand comments such as a politician's recent assertion that we could
> have cars that get 100 mpg, had we invested sufficient billions of dollars
> in research. The fact remains that we don't need research, we can already
> build cars that get 100 mpg. But they don't look much like what we
> currently think of as cars. They would carry only one passenger, almost no
> cargo, top speed of about 30 miles per hour and would take a good while to
> get to that speed. There is no magic needed. Only plenty of patience.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 17
> Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:43:03 -0700
> From: "Lee Corbin"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1";
> reply-type=original
>
> Kevin writes
>
>> By 2039 when some suggest we'll be out of oil,
>> people most companies won't want to waste
>> the money it costs to drill, pump, transport, and
>> refine the "real" stuff.
>
> Would someone mind explaining to me how this
> can *ever* happen? That is, short of a dictatorship
> forcing the price of oil to remain very low, and forcing
> people to continue to use it up, just how is it that the
> price wouldn't necessarily rise the way that any other
> desired item does in a free market?
>
> Now this is quite apart from the serious contention
> by a number of people that oil and natural gas are
> produced abiotically. I posted this link before:
> http://www.questionsquestions.net/docs04/peakoil1.html
>
> And the wikipedia article continues to become more and
> more elaborate (remaining quite balanced, as expected):
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin
>
> So if y'all have even heard of this debate, it might be
> polite, when you're discussing "peak oil" or "when the
> last drop of oil on Earth is used up", to parenthetically
> mention "(pace the abiotic theory)" or something.
>
> Lee
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 18
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 07:07:16 -0400 (EDT)
> From: "MB"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain;charset=utf-8
>
>> We will come to
>> understand comments such as a politician's recent assertion that we could
>> have cars that get 100 mpg, had we invested sufficient billions of dollars
>> in research. The fact remains that we don't need research, we can already
>> build cars that get 100 mpg.
>
> [snip]
>
> For sure true. My 1989 Geo Metro (the 4 door mini-stationwagon one) easily got more
> than 55 mpg on the highway when I went (alone) to visit my son in college in another
> state. And 50 mpg around here in my daily driving.
>
> My understanding is that since that time "they" have fussed around with what is in
> the gasoline (for emission control, not efficiency) so now such mileage is not
> possible for my little Geo, but it still is doing better than the Honda Hybrid I was
> looking at the other day. The owner of the Honda was quite dissapointed to hear
> that, you can be sure. ;)
>
> I realize safety features are heavy and sacrifice efficiency, but my aim is to NOT
> get into a wreck in the first place. Been there once, don't want to do it again. A
> little flimsy car is an eye opener folks, kinda like riding a bicycle on a busy
> road. You get to pay attention to the driving, not talk on the phone!
>
> Regards,
> MB
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 19
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:18:04 -0700
> From: "Jeff Davis"
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Prufrock
> To: "ExI chat list"
> Message-ID:
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
>
> When Lee wrote:
>
>>>"The women come and go,
>>>speaking of fellatio."
>
> I experienced a spasm of fussiness. The rhythm/meter is
> unsatisfying,... not quite in correspondence to the original:
>
> ...speaking of Michaelangelo.
>
> Lee, for his part, was no doubt faithfully reproducing the variant of
> the phrase as he had encountered it. But I thought it sad, because it
> was, to my way of thinking, an entirely unnecessary defect. For
> instance, it could have employed the original "Mi" of Michaelangelo
> and, preserved the meter with:
>
> "Speaking of my fellatio."
>
> A bit too personal, that first person? Then it could have been:
>
> "Speaking of thy fellatio."
>
> Or,
>
> "Speaking of 'Cry fellatio!'"
>
> referring perhaps to a campaign of the anti-war activism where "Cry
> 'Havoc!' and release the dogs of war" is countered with
> "Cry 'Fellatio!' and release the bawds galore."
>
> Or perhaps
>
> "...Try fellatio." A campaign to broaden sexual horizons. Or
>
> "Speaking of sly fellatio." Moving beyond the vanilla version, or
>
> "...High Fellatio." Enhanced, documented, and certified by the
> F?d?ration Internationale pour le Sexualit?. Or
>
> "Buy fellatio.", the world's oldest advertising slogan. Or
>
> "Buy fellatio!" As in "Buy American!" Or
>
> "Bi-fellatio". Vive le diversit?! (Not to mention "tri-fellatio"
> with the rich complexity implied by the state-space intersection of
> geometric and human morphologic possibility). Or
>
> "...fly fellatio.", if the women in question were nerdy collegiate
> entomology majors.
>
> At which point I concluded that I had way too much time on my hands
> and left off the poetical(sic) musings to go power wash doggie rugs
> and otherwise spiff up the house for our upcoming July 4th "Great
> Satan Triumphant" party.
>
> ************************************
>
> I met a traveller from an antique land
> Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
> Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
> Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
> And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
> Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
> Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
> The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
> And on the pedestal these words appear:
> `My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
> Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
> Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
> Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
> The lone and level sands stretch far away."
>
> ***********************
>
> Best, Jeff Davis
>
> "And I think to myself, what a wonderful world!"
> Louie Armstrong
>
>
> On Sat, Jun 28, 2008 at 9:42 AM, Damien Broderick wrote:
>> At 02:18 AM 6/28/2008 -0700, Lee wrote:
>>
>>>"The women come and go,
>>>speaking of fellatio."
>>
>> Actually no, that is The Love That Cannot Speak Its Name.
>>
>> Damien Broderick
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 20
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:41:59 -0700
> From: hkhenson
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
>
> At 10:23 PM 6/28/2008, spike wrote:
>
> snip
>
>>Thanks for pointing this out Keith. The next few years will surely give the
>>masses a hard education in physics and engineering.
>
> It is very likely the masses (and us too) will experience hard times
> over the next few decades. It might get as bad as 100 million a year
> starving. A few decades of that will reduce the size of the problem
> engineers need to solve. :-( On the other hand, it's partly the
> fault of the engineers and other science types that we have the huge
> and hard to sustain populations.
>
> But the masses becoming educated in physics and engineering? I am
> skeptical. Even on this list there are probably more people into
> magical thinking than there are who can understand the scale of the
> energy problems or can evaluate proposed solutions for being
> physically and economically realizable.
>
> Speaking of lists, any suggestions as to ones that deal with energy
> physics and engineering details?
>
> Keith
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 21
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:45:51 -0500
> From: Kevin Freels
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: hkhenson
> Date: Saturday, June 28, 2008 16:50
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
>
>> At 10:02 AM 6/28/2008, Kevin wrote:
>>
>> snip
>>
>>>So the price of the gas could be related to the price of
>> electricity
>>>and NOT based on the amount of oil in the ground. So the
>> solution
>>>here is more cheap electricity which I think is a much simpler
>>>solution than developing an entirely new infrastructure to
>> support
>>>new technologies for transportation.
>>
>> That's what I have been talking about here for months.? But
>> making
>> huge amounts of cheap electricity is not a small problem.?
>> Even if
>> the cost per kWh is low, setting up to manufacture (for example)
>> space based solar power plants is on a par with the Iraq war.
>>
>>>Here's some links to efforts that are up and coming...
>>>
>>>http://www.ls9.com/
>>>http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1979Sci...206...57W
>>>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11653571/
>>>Gasoline from cattle dung.... Hope my car doesn't run like crap!
>>>
>>>There are a lot of companies working on this and I think it's
>> just a
>>>matter of time before it happens. And it's not 10, 20, or 30
>> years
>>>into the future. It's a few years away. By 2039 when some
>> suggest
>>>we'll be out of oil, people most companies won't want to waste
>> the
>>>money it costs to drill, pump, transport, and refine the "real"
>> stuff.>No doubt the development costs will keep these people
>> from releasing
>>>their gen en bacteria to the general population for my "open
>> source
>>>gas factories" but never underestimate the the ingenuity of
>> human
>>>beings. Espionage, the balck market for trade secrets and other
>> such
>>>things will cause this little germ to eventually venture out
>> into
>>>the world. Trade Secrets tend not to remain trade secrets for
>> very
>>>long. I do hope they make their money back and a decent profit
>>>before this happens though.
>>
>> The energy problem is dominated not be trade secrets, but by
>> hard
>> chemical and physical laws.? Oil is energy dense.? In
>> the best cases
>> it takes little processing before you can use it for
>> transportation
>> fuel.? I know about this, not only from studying chemistry
>> since
>> junior high school, but from having worked in a refinery that
>> processed several percent of the oil the US was using around 1980.
>>
>> Take that 400 ton per day trash to energy plant.? How much
>> does 480
>> MWh amount to in gasoline?? There is about 38 kWh in a
>> gallon of
>> gasoline.? At 100% you could make 480,000/38 or about
>> 12,600 gallons
>> a day.? That's enough for a 15 gallon fill up for 840
>> people every
>> day.? Because there are about 840,000 people in Ottawa you
>> could get
>> one fill up per person about every 3 years.
>>
>> Another way to look at it is US gasoline consumption of 386
>> million
>> gallons a day.? 386,000,000/12,600 is around 30,000.?
>> At 400 tons per
>> day, these plants would process about 4,500 million tons of
>> waste a
>> year--which is about 18 times the trash we actually generate.
>>
>> I hope these numbers gives you a feel for the scale of the
>> energy problem.
>>
>> Keith
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
> I fully understand the enormity of the problem but that doesn't change my opinion of the direction of things to come. I am insulted that some of you would simply reply with links to definitions of "wishful thinking" or state that I don't understand rudimentary thermodynamics or physics.? I understand just as well as anyone the hurdles that need to be overcome. I understand that there is no "easy" solution either. But I also have great faith in human ingenuity and a firm grasp on history. History is filled with naysayers and doomsayers. People have said "It can't be done" so many time I wonder why people continue to use that phrase.
>
> People who can't solve a problem often assume that solution doesn't exist. I assume that everyone here is aware that scientific theories and facts are often being refined and occasionally changed as new discoveries are made. Often things that we think we know are partially wrong and it's silly to think that somehow we are immune to this.
>
> So I have to work from the position that in a few years we will learn some things that we don't know now. We will find some things we thought we knew wrong.
>
> As many have pointed out to me, the problem here is indeed enormous. But that is not an argument against what I have proposed. In fact, it's an argument in FAVOR of it. Here's why:
>
> I am going to go on a leap of faith and assume that the problem will be solved. If it isn't, the only real alternative is economic collapse of the world and a reversal of hundreds of years of progress and the singularity pushed off indefinitely.
>
> So with the problem enormous and the civilized world at stake, and a free market ruling, I can only assume that the solution will follow the path of least resistance.
>
> So the alternatives are:
>
> 1.) Replace everything that runs on gas with stuff that runs on batteries
> 2.) Replace the entire infrastructure with an alternative fuel
> or
> 3.) Find a better way to get the fuel we're already using.
>
> There are just too many devices out there owned and operated that use gas. Replacing them with batteries that offer the same range, power, and abilities, or some kind of alternative fuel will require all kinds of infrastructure changes. Not just new manufacture techniques, but everything to get it from the plant to the customer has to change. And that's just for the fuel side. Then there's the manufacture of the devices themselves. We're talking about retooling every machine shop that makes any part for any device that previously used a biofuel or that used parts that were made from machines that used biofuels to run. As if that weren't enough, we're talking about the loss of billions of dollars of assets that run on biofuels. How much to replace all the jets? The trucks? The trains? Am I just going to accept that my cars that cost me thousands of dollars will just sit and rot? I know we're talking about the future, but there are still cars on the roads now from the 40s, 50s!
> , and 60s. Is everyone going to accept that they just can't get fuel for them anymore? Are people going to park their 69 Stingrays in the garage and never drive them again? Even if we had thousands of nuclear power plants with plenty of electricity, a change to an electric replacement for gasoline would be very destabilizing unless it happened over a long period of time - longer than we have.
>
> Unfortunately, I think this is the only end result of any direction other than remaining with gasoline for at least the next 50-100 years. Since there is not 50-100 years of gasoline left, and no one is going to accept the above, and because failure and economic collapse is not an option there is only one solution that will really work. A replacement for gasoline that does not require oil out of the ground.
>
> Now how this is accomplished I admit, I am not sure. I see many promising concepts. Many may not scale up easily, but when the choices are economic collapse, a completely replaced infrastructure and manufacturing base with devalued assets for everyone, or overcoming a problem with scaling up, I put my money on the ability to find solutions to scaling up.
>
> So if you disagree, that's fine. But don't insult me as if I'm a fool. I understand the problem. I just wanted it on record so that when it happens I can look back and laugh at a the fearmongers. No doubt many of you who are so much smarter than me were the same people that have been proposing high-speed rail in the US for many years and still don't understand why it hasn't happened. The real world isn't just about efficiency. It's about people and understanding the power of the status quo.
>
>
>
>
>
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> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 22
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:57:27 -0500
> From: Bryan Bishop
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> On Sunday 29 June 2008, hkhenson wrote:
>> Speaking of lists, any suggestions as to ones that deal with energy
>> physics and engineering details?
>
> I have a list of mailing lists that I recommend:
> http://heybryan.org/mailing_lists.html
>
> You want arocket for anything related to aerospace engineering, and to
> some extent power engineering, but they don't do much else around those
> parts. You might be able to find some interested individuals on
> piclist, but don't count on it.
>
> Another option is forums:
> http://heybryan.org/forums.html
> ... like the chemical engineering forums.
>
> - Bryan
> ________________________________________
> http://heybryan.org/
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 23
> Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:59:32 -0500
> From: Bryan Bishop
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Oil will never run out
> To: ExI chat list
> Message-ID:
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> On Sunday 29 June 2008, Kevin Freels wrote:
>> I am going to go on a leap of faith and assume that the problem will
>> be solved. If it isn't, the only real alternative is economic
>> collapse of the world and a reversal of hundreds of years of progress
>> and the singularity pushed off indefinitely.
>
> I fail to see why the singularity would need the economies we see in the
> world around us today. I may or may not comment on the rest of your
> email, but it seems like you're just repeating yourself.
>
> - Bryan
> ________________________________________
> http://heybryan.org/
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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