[ExI] peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Lee Corbin]

Kevin writes

> John Grigg wrote:
> 
>> What about the supposedly monstrous offshore oil reserves Russia will
>> be privy to when national coastal boundaries are expanded?  The U.S.
>> may have to deal with a resurgent Russian superpower...this will fill to
>> near bursting the coffers of Russia.

Oh yes. The Russians are back to their very big and very imposing
military parades for May Day. All it took was enough oil money,
and they're back to their big scary bad selves. 

The book "The Bottom Billion" (highly recommended by almost
everybody) describes how mineral wealth hurts nations in the 
long run. Today the Arab petrostates are the prime example.
Their economies (along with that of Venezuela) are noticeable
retarded *because* of oil wealth. Paul Collier makes the argument
impeccably.

I wonder if it's really so different from Spain's mineral wealth in
the 16th and 17th centuries. Mining mineral wealth doesn't seem
to count for the kind of *real* wealth creation that ultimately
benefits nations.

> Don't worry so much John. It's just war and power.
> Humanity always seems to find a way to muddle through.
> Russians with money don't really scare me. They need it
> and with their history, they deserve a break.

I agree that it's always war and power. (I've been reading
the history of Catherine the Great and her contemporaries
in Jay Winik's absolutely fabulous book "The Great Upheaval" 
http://www.amazon.com/Great-Upheaval-America-Modern-1788-1800/dp/0060083131
That'll dispel any lingering idealism one has about great power behavior.

No, the Russians are *not* getting a break. Quite the reverse.
Their vast oil wealth is only making them more corrupt,
making them more miserable in the long run, retarding
their economy, and, if all that wasn't bad enough, turning
them back into a frightening menace.

I hope you all don't get to see what Russia or China will
do as the world's sole superpower. Then you'll long for
the good old days of intolerable U.S. domination.

Lee