[ExI] [wta-talk] Richard Lindzen on climate hysteria
spike66 at att.net
Sat Aug 1 05:42:51 UTC 2009
> ...On Behalf Of Max More
> I just can't see climate modeling as having attained the
> status of a hard science at this stage... Max
Max, there is a lot of really interesting science going on having to do with
the fact that solar cycle 24 is wacky low: there are waaay fewer sunspots
than there should be at this point, leading some to conjecture that we could
be starting a new Dalton minimum.
This would be a bad thing indeed, however it is probably too early to really
get worried. Last time it happened, early 1800s, there was a mini ice age.
I track this as part of my job. I recently stopped using the NASA 50
percentile forecast and started using the 5 percentile forecast for the 10.7
cm radiation rise in cycle 24. The 5 percentile forecast is still too high
for the number of sunspots and F10.7 we are seeing currently. I fear there
is as much as a 10% chance we could suffer a mini ice age in the next 30
years. If so, I doubt that carbon dioxide emissions will do much to spare
our species a great deal of suffering.
More information about the extropy-chat