[ExI] The Climate Science Isn't Settled [was: Re: climategateagain]

[spike]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org 
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Emlyn
> Sent: Tuesday, December 01, 2009 6:36 PM
> To: ExI chat list
> Subject: Re: [ExI] The Climate Science Isn't Settled [was: 
> Re: climategateagain]
> 
> How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic
> Coby Beck
> 
> http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how_to_talk_to_a
> _sceptic.php
> 
> "Below is a listing of all the articles to be found in the 
> "How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic" guide...
> Emlyn


Thanks Emlyn.  The problem I have with this approach is that it is about
denial that climate change exists or doesn't.  But the real question in
light of the recent revelations about CRU is not philosophical, but rather:
how much is climate changing?  Is it really a tenth of a degree C per
decade?  Or a hundredth?

Regarding the notion of resurrecting the raw temperature data from all those
stations, it occurred to me that even if we manage to do it, that probably
will make the picture even murkier.  I had entertained the notion of getting
the orginal data and examining the computer code that CRU used to reduce
their data.  But a thought occurred to me that makes me now doubt this
approach.

Weather stations everywhere that were set up a long time ago would naturally
show an increase in temperature because of urbanization.  Cities are warmer
than rural areas, because there are heat sources everywhere.  Practically
every long-operational station would see that effect, so the science
community must figure out a way to compensate for that.  If we had just the
raw data and no compensation model, we would vastly overestimate the warming
of the planet.  So if the CRU guys were either intentionally or mistakenly
exaggerating the warming, it could be from undercompensating for
urbanization.

Without knowing how much the actual temperatures are changing, it doesn't
look to me like we are ready for *any* action on an international scale.

This problem will not be at all easy to untangle.

spike