[ExI] Power sats and technological emigration

[Keith Henson]

On Thu, Jan 1, 2009 at 12:33 PM, John David Galt
<jdg at diogenes.sacramento.ca.us> wrote:
>>>> It also only makes
>>>> sense for a traffic model of a million tons per year or more.
>
>>> I see a disconnect.
>
>> Why?  The analysis is easy.  We have to replace a minimum of 500
>> GW/year for the next 30 years.  That's a hundred 10 to 20 thousand ton
>> power sats per year.  1-2 million tons a year.
>
> Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but why do we need to replace
> 500 GW/year for 30 years?  Do you expect that many existing power
> plants to break down, lose their fuel supplies, or be shut down for
> political reasons, or do you expect that much new demand for power?
> Such a forecast for any of these reasons, or even some of each,
> sounds farfetched to me.
>
> [Go ahead and quote me to list if you like.]

http://www.afstrinity.com/worldoil.htm

The world uses about 15 TW of energy in all forms.  Between the
decline of fossil fuels and the need for more energy for countries
such as China and India, we need to replace or build new sources of
about the same size as we now have.  If you replace 15 TW over 30
years, that's 500 GW/year.  The installation might be somewhat larger
if we want to put carbon back in the ground or use higher energy per
capita.

It's a big market.

Keith