[ExI] israelis defeat physics

[John Grigg]

Spike wrote:
Now of course, if Iran and Israel go at
each other with nukes, we can argue that had Iran fought Iraq in 2003, then
Iran would be in no condition to take on Israel today.
>>>

I tend to think a second Iran and Iraq war (and no US invasion of
Iraq) would have been another ugly and bloody eventual stalemate.  But
then again the internal problems that had weakened Iran's military in
the first conflict were probably long since fixed, and so the nod
toward any sort of real victory might have gone to Iran.  In the first
war it was a fairly professional Iraqi military with a numerically
superior but weakened (due to internal purges and supplies for
American weapon systems cut off) Iran fighting them.

I'm not so sure that even a major war between Iran and Iraq would have
seriously slowed Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.  I tend to think
they would have "Nazi Germany" style trudged on successfully with
their work using underground and scattered around facilities.

But taking on *Israel* is a whole different matter.  Their "Samson
Option" is extremely powerful and the number and accuracy of their
nukes makes them almost a mini United States.  And I have read they
have used their best minds to deploy and even try to improve American
anti-missle technology.  And so Israel would have at least somewhat of
a anti-missle shield (Iran having none) and far more numerous and
accurate nukes than Iran.

A nuclear exchange could result in a seriously injured Israel but an
Iran with every city, military base and industrial center vaporized.
And I suspect Israel also has a superior array of highly tailored bio
and chemical weapons to finish the work of any earlier nuclear
strikes.

A heavily nuked and dying State of Israel (should their enemies REALLY
luck out) might decide to (akin to Samson of old) launch nuclear,
biological and chemical strikes against *all* Muslim/Arab/Persian
middle eastern nations so there will be no potential enemy intact to
celebrate the destruction of Israel.

Israel is a relatively tiny strip of land and is surrounded by
outright enemies or those who might easily return to that state of
mind.  Despite the industry, discipline and intelligence of the
citizens of Israel (and a powerful friend from across the sea), they
have their longterm work cut out for them in staying alive and
independent.  I tend to think of their Muslim enemies as "the gang
that could never shoot straight" but in time that might change.

May we never see such horrible scenarios ever come to be.

John