[ExI] global warming again

[Damien Broderick]

At 02:01 PM 3/15/2009 -0700, Spike wrote:

>It is so puzzling.  What happens if we keep taking measuring and find that
>the recent climate data indicates the globe is actually cooling?

Or what if the earth is actually flat? Or rhomboid?

Quote from below: "Eleven of the last 12 years 
(1995-2006) rank among the warmest years in 
global surface temperature since 1850."

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2009/03/a-predicted-glo.html

World Population Devastated if a Predicted Global 
Warming Increase of 9 Degrees F Occurs

By Casey Kazan
Daily Galaxy Editorial Staff

On the closing day of the Congress on Climate 
Change held last week in Copenhagen, one of the 
world's leading experts, Hans Joachim 
Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam 
Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, 
said that if the buildup of greenhouse gases and 
its consequences pushed global temperatures 9 
degrees Fahrenheit higher than today - well below 
the upper temperature range that scientists 
project could occur from global warming - Earth's 
population would be devastated.

"In a very cynical way, it's a triumph for 
science because at last we have stabilized 
something -- namely the estimates for the 
carrying capacity of the planet, namely below 1 billion people."

Schellnhuber's comments at the Copenhagen 
conference underscore that, given high rates of 
observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario 
trajectories are unfoldinmg. For many key 
parameters, the climate system is already moving 
beyond the patterns of natural variability within 
which our society and economy have developed and 
thrived. These parameters include global mean 
surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and 
ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and 
extreme climatic events. There is a significant 
risk that many of the trends will accelerate, 
leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Recent observations show that societies are 
highly vulnerable to even modest levels of 
climate change, with poor nations and communities 
particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C 
will be very difficult for contemporary societies 
to cope with, and will increase the level of 
climate disruption through the rest of the century.

It is important for people to understand that the 
warming the IPCC talks about is not hypothetical. 
Eleven of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank 
among the warmest years in global surface 
temperature since 1850. Glaciers and snow cover 
have declined, and ice sheets from Greenland and 
parts of Antarctica are melting. The ocean has 
been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to 
the climate system, yet the average temperature 
of the ocean has increased up to a depth of 3,000 
meters, causing seawater to expand and contributing to sea level rise.

Schellnhuber, citing his own research, said that 
at certain "tipping points," higher temperatures 
could cause areas of the ocean to become 
deoxygenated, resulting in what he calls "oxygen 
holes" between 600 and 2,400 feet deep. These are 
areas so depleted of the gas that they would badly disrupt the food chain.

Unabated warming would also lead to "disruption 
of the monsoon, collapse of the Amazon rain 
forest and the Greenland ice sheet will meltdown," he said.

Scientists must make clear the disastrous effects 
of climate change so the world takes action now 
to cut carbon emissions, leading economist 
Nicholas Stern said on told the gathering of 2,000 scientists.

"You have to tell people very clearly and 
strongly just how difficult (a temperature rise 
of) four, five, six or seven degrees Celsius is," he said.

"Billions of people would have to move and there 
would be very severe conflict," said Stern, a 
professor at the London School of Economics and a 
former British Treasury economist.

"That's a story that must be told to persuade 
people it's a very bad idea to go anywhere near 
five degrees. This is not a black swan, this is a 
big probability of a devastating outcome," he

Posted by Casey Kazan

Sources:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/
http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Schellnhuber-PNAS-2008.pdf
http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/get-informed/news/scientists-deliver-politicians-key-messages-for-copenhagen-climate-talks.html
http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/get-informed/news/clear-and-present-danger-a-conversation-with-nobel-laureate-steve-chu-on-the-risks-of-climate-change.html
http://in.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idINTRE52B37Q20090312?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0