[ExI] The sky is falling!

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Fri Mar 27 03:19:32 UTC 2009

On Thu, Mar 26, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Stathis Papaioannou
<stathisp at gmail.com> wrote:
> 2009/3/27 Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>:
>>> That there is a glut now does not necessarily mean there will always
>>> be a glut. It is possible that production of a commodity outstrips
>>> demand this year even though the commodity will completely run out
>>> next year.
>> ### If there was even the remote possibility of this happening in the
>> foreseeable future (i.e. before the singularity wipes us out), oil
>> futures would be shooting through the roof, and they aren't.
> Futures contracts are an aggregate measure of traders' guesses on
> where the price will be up to a several years from now. They don't
> look more than a decade ahead. In any case, by citing this as an
> argument you are essentially saying, People don't act as if they
> believe the oil will run out soon, therefore the oil won't run out
> soon.

### Futures are an aggregate measure of guesses by people who are
willing to put their cash on the table, therefore their guesses can be
taken more seriously than the solar-pie-in-orbit stuff. People in the
know know that oil won't run out anytime soon. As for the longer term
predictions, we know that available oil and oil alternatives are
present in sufficient quantity to last at least 300 to 400 years at
current consumption levels. In other words, the likelihood that humans
will run out of oil is nil, since in 300 years there will be most
likely no humans left anyway.


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