[ExI] The sky is falling!

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Fri Mar 27 15:42:51 UTC 2009

2009/3/27 John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>:
> Rafal wrote:
> ### Futures are an aggregate measure of guesses by people who are
> willing to put their cash on the table, therefore their guesses can be
> taken more seriously than the solar-pie-in-orbit stuff. People in the
> know know that oil won't run out anytime soon. As for the longer term
> predictions, we know that available oil and oil alternatives are
> present in sufficient quantity to last at least 300 to 400 years at
> current consumption levels. In other words, the likelihood that humans
> will run out of oil is nil, since in 300 years there will be most
> likely no humans left anyway.
> 300 to 400 hundred years worth of oil left at current consumption levels?
> Please provide links supporting this claim.

### It was "oil and oil equivalents" - meaning coal, natural gas,
shale oil, methane hydrate, all the stuff you can easily and
economically transform into oil at prices only mildly higher than
recent prices, meaning that we can drive and keep our system running
with no significant disruption. Do I need to give you links to coal
and methane reserve estimates?

> Keith has talked about humanity running out of "cheap fossil fuels" and that
> is different from having centuries worth of the much harder to reach and/or
> refine oil ($$$) to survive on.
> Why can't we agree on anything? LOL!
### Define "cheap fossil fuels". For me it means oil at no more than
250$/barrel, give or take a few, inflation adjusted to 2009.
Significantly above that, in the absence of increases in overall
incomes, there would be need to economize.


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