[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"
pharos at gmail.com
Sun May 3 21:21:49 UTC 2009
On 5/3/09, Damien Broderick wrote:
> At 01:59 PM 5/3/2009 -0400, Rafal wrote:
> > ### According to many economic indicators, the recession is going to
> > end in about 6 weeks
> Could you elaborate on these economic indicators? (Not being snarky here,
> I'll really like to know.)
As a general rule, the bust takes about the same amount of time as the boom.
So. you get a quick boom, followed by a quick bust and then recovery.
Unfortunately, this last boom was the biggest bubble ever, and in all
the world economies at the same time, so we are now in unknown
territory. As trillions of free money, in all currencies, has been
produced out of thin air, I would expect this to have some effect.
(Exactly what effect, nobody knows). But as I see it, a quite likely
scenario is a mini-recovery accompanied by shouts of 'Free money!',
then an absolutely horrendous crash. Mainly because none of the
underlying problems have yet been fixed.
I shall be most surprised if the solution to debt problems caused by
spending money that you don't have is to spend trillions more money
that you don't have.
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