[ExI] "recession is going to end in about 6 weeks"

scerir scerir at libero.it
Wed May 6 17:23:11 UTC 2009

Imagine we had a bet for, oh, let's say $1000, the issue being 
whether the recession (measured by per capita GDP) ends before 
the end of 2009 or not? How would you bet?


Wasn't this (so they were saying) the worst recession 
in the last 70 years? I would say that if this recession 
will be over in 6 months it wasn't so bad :-)

But there are chances the recovery will be slow, and 
there are chances the inflation will be much higher 
in the future (this seems quite obvious to me, since 
governments have injected trillions of dollars into the systems),
and there are chances the oil will be more expensive again,
and there are chances our economies will be more dependent
of China, etc.

So, the stock market has bet - since March, 9 - for 
the recession to be over in few months, but I think
the dynamics could be chaotic.

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