[ExI] Proactionary was Cryo-optimism/was Re: Silly

[hkhenson]

At 07:45 AM 5/6/2009, Dan wrote:

snip

>I'm not gloomy, but I am questioning your being overly 
>optimistic.  Death has not been conquered yet -- if it ever will be 
>conquered.  And cryonics has yet to be proved.  So, it's a bit early 
>to be touting cryonics or any similar thing as a proven solution to dying.

It is the nature of cryonics that when it is proven to work, the 
knowledge will have no value, because surely it will be more 
difficult to revive the cryonics patients than keeping people from 
dying in the first place.  We are, as Dr. Ralph Merkel points out, 
running an experiment where those who get frozen are the experimental 
group and those who die and are not preserved are the control 
group.  It's not that we experimental subjects are particularly 
optimistic, it's just that at present we lack alternate courses of action.

>That doesn't mean I'm against it; I was trying to inject some 
>reasonableness into the discussion.

I was trying to point out that a discussion on inheritance isn't an 
extropian topic.

>Recall, earlier, you wrote:  "In a post nanotech world death should 
>be rare indeed."  Well, we don't live in that world yet and many us 
>might not -- even with cryonics -- make it to that world.  So don't 
>celebrate victories until the battle is won.  (And believe you me, I 
>hope it is won -- and won during all of our lifetimes.)

There are two main models of the world future, the limits to growth 
model and the singularity model.  The latter is based on long range 
trends of increases in computer power and the assumption that AI will 
emerge when hardware is powerful enough to permit it and that human 
level computation rates are enough are enough (by example) to support 
an AI.  This date centers in the mid 2040s.

The limits to growth model predicts a population crash starting much 
sooner and based to a substantial extent on failing energy 
supplies.  The diversion of food (corn, soybean oil) into bio fuels 
may bring the crash closer by a number of years.

The proactionary principle says extropians should be concerned about 
this.  Do you have any suggestions?

Keith