[ExI] Proactionary was Cryo-optimism/was Re: Silly
hkhenson at rogers.com
Wed May 6 16:35:16 UTC 2009
At 07:45 AM 5/6/2009, Dan wrote:
>I'm not gloomy, but I am questioning your being overly
>optimistic. Death has not been conquered yet -- if it ever will be
>conquered. And cryonics has yet to be proved. So, it's a bit early
>to be touting cryonics or any similar thing as a proven solution to dying.
It is the nature of cryonics that when it is proven to work, the
knowledge will have no value, because surely it will be more
difficult to revive the cryonics patients than keeping people from
dying in the first place. We are, as Dr. Ralph Merkel points out,
running an experiment where those who get frozen are the experimental
group and those who die and are not preserved are the control
group. It's not that we experimental subjects are particularly
optimistic, it's just that at present we lack alternate courses of action.
>That doesn't mean I'm against it; I was trying to inject some
>reasonableness into the discussion.
I was trying to point out that a discussion on inheritance isn't an
>Recall, earlier, you wrote: "In a post nanotech world death should
>be rare indeed." Well, we don't live in that world yet and many us
>might not -- even with cryonics -- make it to that world. So don't
>celebrate victories until the battle is won. (And believe you me, I
>hope it is won -- and won during all of our lifetimes.)
There are two main models of the world future, the limits to growth
model and the singularity model. The latter is based on long range
trends of increases in computer power and the assumption that AI will
emerge when hardware is powerful enough to permit it and that human
level computation rates are enough are enough (by example) to support
an AI. This date centers in the mid 2040s.
The limits to growth model predicts a population crash starting much
sooner and based to a substantial extent on failing energy
supplies. The diversion of food (corn, soybean oil) into bio fuels
may bring the crash closer by a number of years.
The proactionary principle says extropians should be concerned about
this. Do you have any suggestions?
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