[ExI] singularity thru simulation of evolution

[JOSHUA JOB]

On Nov 15, 2009, at 6:20 PM, spike wrote:

> What I do mean is this: what is your mental picture or roadmap,  
> however
> fuzzy, to the singularity?

> ......Is there an alternate path to the singularity that does not  
> require a deep
> understanding of how intelligence came about to start with?  Is  
> there any
> path to the singularity that does not require an understanding deep  
> enough
> to create a simulation which successfully demonstrates the evolution  
> of
> intelligence?  If so, do share.
While I don't believe in some kind of Singularity (with a capital  
"s"), I do think that there are going to be a series of major changes  
over the next hundred years, and I think any one of them may deserve  
to be called singularities of some form or another.

My singularities are:
1. Radical life extension and the achievement of so-called longevity  
or actuarial escape velocity (just for clarity, when we increase life  
expectancy by one year every year). This will totally transform human  
civilization. The path to get there is through developments in  
biotechnology and eventually nanotechnology. Of course, mind uploading  
would also be a good way to get to this point, but I think that will  
come along after we achieve biological indefinite lifespan.

2. Nanotechnology, specifically molecular manufacturing along  
Drexlerian lines, either through assemblers or nanofactories. This  
will fundamentally alter our economic situation, allowing for the  
effective end of scarcity and poverty on Earth, even without advances  
in AI. Will also be immensely helpful for development and growth of  
human-level and above AI, and for the development of mind uploading.

3. The development of human level AI. This will change our society by  
challenging its laws, transforming its economy, and affecting our  
culture. This could easily fuel either of the two other singularities,  
or either of them may help fuel this one.

I think the likely path to the singularity is the development of  
advances in biotech, which will extend longevity enough to where we  
get, say, halfway to LEV. At that point, all those Baby Boomers will  
invest absurdly large amounts of money into life extension research,  
including large amounts into nanotech, which will push us rapidly  
toward LEV. Around the same time, advances in nanotechnology will  
enable major medical advances, allowing us to achieve LEV, at least  
for the world's wealthy (e.g. middle class Americans and up).

The money from longevity research will round out any problems  
nanotechnologists haven't been able to solve with molecular  
manufacturing (since it will likely be necessary for the mass- 
production of the more rigorous and effective longevity and medical  
techniques and technologies).

And also around this time, the advancement of computer power and  
neuroscience will allow us to use the nanobots and the like we are  
using to extend our lives to also investigate the brain, allowing us  
to put the finishing touches on our computer models of brain function,  
and molecular manufacturing will allow us to mass produce our most  
advanced computer systems with little input cost, ushering in a new  
era of indefinite lifespan, scarce scarcity, and human-level and above  
artificial intelligence (soon followed by mind uploading). On time  
scale, I'd say that we reach halfway to LEV by 2030 at the latest, and  
put the finishing touches on our multiple singularities by 2060 or so  
(around when high-power computers are currently expected to be able to  
handle the most extravagant estimates for processing power needed to  
emulate the brain.

In regards to your evolutionary approach spike, I'm not sure its  
necessary at all. We don't even need to understand intelligence or  
consciousness in order to recreate it. All that's necessary is to  
emulate the actual physical processes going on in the brain. That will  
likely come along far sooner than a full and complete description of  
the computational processes occurring in the brain, and the  
foundations of consciousness. Evolution is more of an explanatory  
theory than a predictive one (even if we know the end result), and  
trying to postdict the evolution of organisms in the past is likely to  
prove an enormously more difficult task than the above "singularities."


Joshua Job
nanite1018 at gmail.com