[ExI] Some thoughts on the ecopocalypse - the argument fordomestic ground based solar.

[Eugen Leitl]

On Fri, Nov 27, 2009 at 11:03:55AM -0600, Max More wrote:

> and supplied links to the Oil Drum. Peak oil claims are not 

One thing about the Oil Drum is that they provide a lot of
numbers. It is very difficult to argue with numbers, especially
numbers which over the years seem to tell a story which 
rhymes with reality. I wish somebody would create an
anti-peakist site with similiar extent and coverage scope, and
we would see a dialogue develop. The story is not a very
happy one, so of course I would like it not to be true.

> compelling to me, and I think these claims for (anytime soon) peak 

Do you discount the EROEI analysis, and the empirical graphs
over time? 

> uranium make some of the same mistakes. A crucial one being to assume 
> that current sources and current methods of extraction are all that's 

The problem is that they're covering all aspects (finds, estimates
of finds, ore quality over time, EROEI, current fuel reserves,
reprocessing, required capacity growth) so it is difficult to show
something they overlooked. I keep looking, but the detractor's
story keeps getting weaker and weaker, and theirs stronger.

And consider what happens if the critics are correct, and what
happens if TOD is correct. The severity of the outcome is just not
comparable. Even if you can't tell the probability, the amplitude
of the outcome is sufficiently high so that you have to consider
it. We just have to cover our asses, just in case.

> possible. The history of oil extraction shows how silly that assumption is.
> 
> A more balanced assessment can be found here:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium

I am sorry, I do not consider Wikipedia a useful resource. It's
being gamed ten times to Sunday. I hope the forthcoming
fork (Levitation + git) will happen soon.
 
> That source does distinguish between different grades of uranium and 
> notes the potential (terribly underutilized) of reprocessing.

Pick all the points from Wikipedia, and go through their treatment
on TOD. Draw your own conclusions. I did.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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