[ExI] Mining the Sky SL Talk I gave today

samantha sjatkins at mac.com
Tue Apr 27 19:35:55 UTC 2010


Adrian Tymes wrote:
> --- On Tue, 4/27/10, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>> I see little
>> justification for dropping down into the gravity well to
>> collect interest on
>> it, instead of going straight to the solar sails now.
> 
> Because very few people want solar sails now.  But lots of
> people want platinum down in the gravity well now.

No reason to not do both in the proportions that make sense based on demand.

> 
> Again, it's not like there is a severely limited supply of
> it out there.  There is a larger supply than can be used
> in the next century - by which time, we will hopefully
> have access to an even larger supply (Kuiper Belt/Oort
> Cloud) - which means we can act as if there is an infinite
> supply in practice.  Dropping platinum into the gravity
> well does not prevent grabbing another asteroid and making
> solar sails out of it.

There is a larger supply in Aten asteroids than we are likely to use in 
a century or this side of full MNT and/or AGI.

> 
> It is true that at any given time, only a finite amount of
> platinum will have been harvested.  Those that do the
> harvesting have first say in how it gets used, by how and
> where they give it to others.  Presently, that means this
> will be dictated by those who fund the operation.

Which will themselves decide based on a mix of what they want to 
accomplish and what is the most profitable use.

> Which
> of these is easier: finding someone who will fund
> harvesting asteroids for solar sails, or finding someone
> who will fund harvesting asteroids for use on Earth?
> 

Perhaps neither.  The first country/corporation/group that gather space 
material and builds out useful space infrastructure will be at the 
center of everything that happens for quite some time.  To me the very 
best use of the material is in space to build out capacities and 
habitats.   Yes I also want to build out space based solar to solve 
energy problems on earch and I want to drop resources down the gravity 
well.  But the true future is in space.


> It is a lot harder to fund the former than the latter,
> and not just the "if something is worth doing" type of
> "harder".  Instead, funding the former is practically
> impossible at the present time, while the latter is at
> least potentially possible currently, and the latter can
> eventually make the former possible. 

How much?  How much money and what kind of personnel and other resources 
are needed to fund and flesh out early NEO asteroid mining?   That is 
the first critical question.  Given the numbers then figure out how to 
get the funding.  Guessing beforehand what is and is not a good pitch is 
likely not the best use of our time.


- s



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