[ExI] cure for global warming is working

spike spike66 at att.net
Tue Dec 21 23:49:26 UTC 2010

On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] cure for global warming is working

On 2010-12-21 17:36, spike wrote:
>> But Anders, I am so puzzled.  We were assured the science was 
>> *settled* on all this.  When I looked at it, the science sure as hell 
>> didn't look settled to me.  Doesn't still now.

>Yup... professor Steve Rayner: "The climate models are crappy. [succinct
rant about their main failures] However, as decision-making aids they have
been *better* than the kind of input we accept as relevant input for
business decisions since the middle 90's."

Ja.  The critical aspect of comparing climate models with business models is
that the business investors rely on the uncertain models to risk *their own*
money as opposed to someone else's.

>...The fact that the politicized climate industry is going to go on raving
about how settled things are is irrelevant...

Ja.  Anders I am thankful for you pal.  Your even-handed approach to this is
as refreshing as a cool breeze on a scorching summer day. {8-]

>... I find it more interesting to talk to the real climate scientists and
discuss real science with them...

Me too.  This whole field seems hopelessly mired in a morass of controversy
from which extrication appears impossible.

>...They do have some pretty nifty forecasting methods, a lot of knowledge
of different kinds of uncertainty and their individual problems, even some
very cool large-scale simulation tools. Very useful for completely different

If it sells, may they prosper and grow.

>...An interesting issue is that the markets do not seem to be pricing like
they expect climate to be a big problem...

Ja.  Governments seem slow to grasp this.

>... Either they are very shortsighted, investors are mis-investing, or they
do not "believe" (as information markets) in major climate change. Either
way, there is likely arbitrage to be made.  --Anders Sandberg

As I see it, the question is much bigger than the mere possibility of
disrupting centuries old agriculture techniques, mass starvation, collapse
of civilization and the risk of rendering the planet uninhabitable by all
presently-known organisms.  We face a far more critical question: how much
authority do we entrust to our national governments to act on this.  Our
consistent answer: not much, and less as in the future.


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