[ExI] Meat v. Machine

[Eugen Leitl]

On Fri, Dec 31, 2010 at 05:06:55AM -0800, Samantha Atkins wrote:

> > We're only trying to deliver a number of small parcels.
> > Each smaller than the one before.
> 
> Not if you want to do any space or lunar processing 

You need very little yeast to make a big vat of wine.

> and manufacturing or house any human crews at all.

Planes fly, pilots stay on the ground.

> > It doesn't matter if you lose some parcels.
> 
> I don't understand what you are talking about.  

You don't need to man-rate your lifters,
and no need for mourning ceremony if you
lose a few (but the flight people will mourn
for sure).
 
> > Do you expect military ecovorous self-replicators 
> > to be a serious problem, in that time frame?
> 
> No.  I expect us to suffer the Great Whimper, 

That is a reasonable worry.

> or if we have a bit more gumption, throw the war 
> or series of wars that wipes out our technological 

I though we've been doing it for a while. None of
them serious, more skirmishes.

> basis sufficiently to doom the species in that timeframe 
> UNLESS we find and do the necessary things in the 
> next decade, two at the outside.  

Prognosis is poor, as few see the writing on the
wall yet.

We might have bit more time than 10-20 years.
Probably less than 50, though.