[ExI] Tipler on hurricanes and IPCC

Damien Broderick thespike at satx.rr.com
Thu Feb 25 02:42:55 UTC 2010



<This is the essence of the IPCC Assessment Report 4 (WG1 chapter 3) 
executive summary on hurricanes:

     Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased since about 1970. … 
Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show 
a significant upward trend since the mid-1970s, with a trend towards 
longer lifetimes and greater storm intensity. … These relationships have 
been reinforced by findings of a large increase in numbers and 
proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 globally. … numbers 
of hurricanes in the North Atlantic have also been above normal (based 
on 1981–2000 averages) in 9 of the last 11 years, culminating in the 
record-breaking 2005 season.

In reality, hurricanes, in both strength and in frequency, have been 
decreasing over the past four years. Ryan Maue of the Center for 
Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State 
University, a hurricane researcher, has shown that “global and Northern 
Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity remains near 30-year historical 
lows — three years in a row now of considerably below-average activity 

See graphs etc at site.

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