thespike at satx.rr.com
Fri Jul 2 20:26:51 UTC 2010
On 7/2/2010 3:03 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> ### Enough to move the existence-meter from ??% to ??% ?
I was already convince psi is real (but usually, like Goering's balls,
rather small) so I didn't change anything in particular--I was looking
for a way to *use* psi, but it turns out the stochastic jitter is too
great for any simple application based on gaming populations. Linear
regression helped a bit, but not enough to clear away the noise of
shifting biases. (Example: it is demonstrable that the vote for any
given number changes in immediately subsequent draws--because many
punters are superstitious. Of course one can then ask "Does it change in
the predicted direction *more* when a given number is a winner twice in
row than when it's not?" and the overall mean answer is yes.)
> BTW, I am sure there are employees at lotteries who can and did look
> at much more data than you can access .... men with great statistical
> expertise .... in hundreds of independent organizations ...
This seems very likely, but I was astonished at how little the guys at
Tattslotto cared about the kinds of small effects I anticipated. They
just couldn't be bothered following it up (or so they said). Like JKC,
they were "realists" who knew what's what, so that psi BULLSHIT just
wasn't worth considering.
> and no
> published reports on psi from them .... what could this imply?
As far as I know, here haven't been any or many reports from the Sony
ESPER psi lab either; they announced as it was shut down in 1998
(following Masaru Ibuka's death) that yes, they had found such effects,
but they weren't large enough to impact their company's program. One
might expect them to admit it if the thing was a washout, but maybe that
would imply public disrespect for their sainted co-founder. Realpolitik
is a real fucker when you're going after the mysterious...
Then again, perhaps it's all gone deepest black (as I expect) and is
attended by disinformation projects, as is known to have happened with
many sightings of highly classified aircraft and spy balloons.
Realpolitik is a real fucker...
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