[ExI] psi yet again

[Damien Broderick]

On 6/29/2010 12:55 AM, John Clark wrote:

>>> Damien does that book explain how in the past 20 years those lotteries
>>> have somehow managed to produce huge and CONSISTENT profits

>> >Yes.

> Delightful, I wait with eager anticipation reports of venture
> capitalists, those most pragmatic of human beings, having invested
> billions of dollars in new start up psi profit making companies, or even
> millions of dollars, or even thousands of dollars, or even hundreds of
> dollars, or even one dollar.

Do concentrate, John. I just agreed that lotto companies manage to be 
very profitable, despite the reality of psi. I was hoping you'd explain 
to me how and why you thought it would be otherwise.

Here are some clues:

<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/gamble/odds/house.html>

"If $20 million is bet on a Lotto jackpot, the state will take between 
40 and 50 percent out of that figure immediately. From the half left, 
smaller prizes are deducted. In most cases, you're left something like 
$5 to $8 million for winning a 14 million to 1 bet."

So up to half the money goes in taxes *immediately*. How could psi 
winners modify that?

Additionally, the companies take out their share *from the top*. How 
could psi winners modify that?

Eventually, you might suggest this: if everyone has amazing psi powers 
and always guesses the right winning numbers, then everyone will share 
the major prize, which will (by design) pay only some 40 or 50% or less 
of what each ticket cost. So people will stop betting, and the companies 
will have to close. Boo hoo.

Because we live in the real world, we actually can tell fairly easily 
that this story doesn't make any sense. Everyone *can't* predict the 
winning numbers all the time. Does this prove that psi does not exist, 
and in fact is impossible?

Do some calculations. Think for a moment about what would be involved if 
such an impossible skill as precognition actually existed. How would a 
thing like that modify your betting behavior?

Suppose you have to guess 6 numbers out of 44 or 49. Suppose psi 
enhances one guess in 1000, and either confirms your choice or causes 
you to switch to another number. How many extra division one winners 
would you expect to see in any draw? For full credit, please show your work.

Damien Broderick