[ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled

Christopher Luebcke cluebcke at yahoo.com
Tue Mar 2 22:19:21 UTC 2010


> Let's turn this around: What do you think is the case here? What do think will 
> happen? What do you think should be done?


I think that there will probably be some fairly serious ecological disruptions over the next several decades; the root issues will be sea level rise and ecosystem disruption. Sea level rise has obvious consequences, not just for the people and agriculture displaced, but for the people uphill--imagine a few million starving Bangladeshis overwhelming your border, for example. Beyond sea level, the other changes are generally tied to weather system disruption, and result in threats to water security, crop failures and changes in migratory patters (for fish, game and fowl). 

If the ecological changes are a real possibility, and most climatologists think they are, there's actually probably not that much that can be done about it. I mean, we shouldn't just say to hell with it and double down on greenhouse gas emission, but it's not like we can just turn the thermostat down once we agree to. The recent and rapid changes in Arctic ice cover alone are probably enough to eventually cause or contribute to some fairly serious climate disruptions, and there probably isn't anything that can be done about it.

So what do we do?

- Develop cheap, renewable, and distributed sources of energy. We need electrification of the developing world to happen the way communication technology is spreading--not with massive infrastructure projects (e.g. land lines), but by developing inexpensive, individually-ownable, mass-producible systems (e.g. cell phones). Wind, solar, fuel cell, hydrodynamic, whatever--power to the people, literally, and power they can take with them if they have to move around.
- Continue the already promising development of crops that are resistant to various environmental risks (e.g. drought-resistant grains, salt-resistant rice, etc). Agriculture they can take with them if they have to move around.
- Water security is a very serious concern. Given the proximity of most of the world's population to oceans that are probably coming up to meet them, I'd say investment in (small, distributable) desalinization technology would probably be a good move as well.
- Encourage economic development and education. This is what will create cultures of people who can be self-sufficient and adaptable even in trying times.

Those are the types of things that I think ought to happen. I'm not suggesting who's responsible, who should pay for them, who should execute them.

I also think that those types of developments, should they happen, would turn out to be a boon if in fact no GW scenarios come to pass.

Thanks for asking.




________________________________
From: Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tue, March 2, 2010 1:03:54 PM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled


I was merely responding to the "bring civilization to its knees" comment made earlier. And I do not mean to make light of the fact that any disruption in ecosystems might cause suffering -- to humans and non-humans. But my point was more that such disruptions have happened before and ask why this alledged one is different and needs special attention? (I use "alleged" because there's much uncertainty here -- and the doom and gloom predictions have often not panned out. This is even leaving aside the "climategate" scandal.)
 
Let's turn this around: What do you think is the case here? What do think will happen? What do you think should be done?
 
Regards,
 
Dan


From: Christopher Luebcke <cluebcke at yahoo.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tue, March 2, 2010 3:10:35 PM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled


I don't know of anybody who seriously contents that global warming is a threat to the survival of the species.

But significant disruptions to ecosystems tend to cause a lot of suffering. That's where my concern lies.


From: Dan <dan_ust at yahoo.com>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tue, March 2, 2010 6:48:05 AM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled

If we look at the long course of human civilization and even humans before civilization, both human civilization and humans have gone through lots of drastic changes in climate. So, like you, I don't see the big deal for adapting. I suppose food production might have to change over decades to adapt to different conditions -- maybe by changing the ranges and times for crops or by changing the types of crops grown.

Also, if we just look at the last two or three centuries, we see a huge shift in where and how people live and how they get their food. This shift hasn't taken place as much in the Third World -- but that's mostly because of bad policies that can easily be changed. (How? Simply turn over policy makers and enforcers to me for re-education.)

This is, of course, assuming that global warming has merit and that at least some of the projected climatic shifts will take place.

Regards,

Dan

----- Original Message ----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net>
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Tue, March 2, 2010 12:39:28 AM
Subject: Re: [ExI] Phil Jones acknowledging that climate science isn'tsettled

> ...On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
... 
> science isn'tsettled
> 
> On Mon, Mar 1, 2010 at 10:45 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> > I often see stuff like this, but it is always puzzling.  
> Can someone 
> > explain why the average temperature increasing by a degree 
> or two or 
> > half a degree in a human lifetime would bring civilization to its 
> > knees?  Are we really that delicate and non-adaptable?
> 
> My theory supposes linear growth of 1 degree per year 
> wouldn't be so bad if not for the anecdote about boiling a 
> frog to death... Conversely at >1 degree per year as input to my weather 
> model... The observation of <1 degree per year of temperature increase 
> to this weather model...Mike

Mike's post makes my point better than I did.  We are so very accustomed to
thinking of something per year, a few percent a year, another birthday per
year and so forth.  The climatologists are offering numbers that look like a
degree per century.  We just are not used talking about anything per
century, so confusion results.  A lot of teens somehow jump to the
stunningly illogical conclusion that this two degree change we are trying to
stop will show up in a few years or any day now since the Copenhagen flop.

This causes what I call the Russians vs Germans effect.  During WW2, the
Germans had better technology, so in the summers when the days were long and
warm, they beat back their foes and drove deep into Russia, but when the
vicious November storms hit, the German tanks were ill suited to the cold,
the tracks were glued to the ground in the freezing mud, the engines guzzled
fuel since they had to be left running to prevent freezing etc.  So in the
winter the Russians had the clear advantage, and drove the Germans all the
way back.  

In the global warming debate, the proposed change is very slow, but human
lifetimes are very short.  We end up with the global warming people, like
the Germans, having the advantage in the summer, but every winter, they give
up the ground they gained because people still die from the cold.  Then the
global warming ridiculers, like the Russians, regain lost ground.  The
battle surges back and forth every year, with tragic results.

spike
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