[ExI] I love the world. =)

[Keith Henson]

On Mon, Nov 8, 2010 at 5:00 AM,  Charlie Stross
<charlie.stross at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On 8 Nov 2010, at 00:20, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 3) we will continue to advance according to our own programming.
>> Mostly that frightened monkey programming that kept us from being
>> eaten by primordial predators will make us just as likely to hit the
>> computronium monsters with a proverbial rock or (as recently
>> discussed) a burning branch.  Once the threat becomes possible, expect
>> to see right next to the firehose something like "in case of hard
>> takeoff, break glass to employ EMP."  In a not-quite-worst-case
>> scenario we are forced to Nuke the Internet and revert back to
>> Amish-level technologies.  Not a pretty situation, but humanity would
>> adapt.
>
> Humanity *in the abstract* might adapt; but if we have to go there, you and I, personally, are probably going to die. Even today, all our supply chains have adapted to just-in-time production and shipping, relying on networked communications to ensure that stuff gets where it's needed; we can't revert to doing things the old way -- the equipment has long since been scrapped -- and we'd rapidly starve. Your average big box supermarket only holds about 24-48 hours worth of provisions, and their logistics infrastructure is highly tuned for efficiency. Now add in gas stations, railroad signalling, electricity grid control ... If we have to Nuke The Net Or Die, it'll mean the difference between a 100% die-back and a 90% die-back.

I understand that just losing GPS will make hash of the banking
industry (timestamps).

> Meanwhile, the Mormons, with their requirement to keep a year of canned goods in the cellar, will be laughing. (Well, praying.)

I thought you are out of date on this since our Mormon neighbors got
rid of their year of food back in the late 80s.  But it seems like
this is still part of Mormon culture, though it may be followed by a
minority of them.

Could we get through a loss of the net and not loose most of the
population?  At this point "the net" and phone service is largely the
same thing, at least outside a LATA.  I think that might be possible
today, enough people remember old ways of doing things.  Ten years
from now?  20?  30?  Perhaps, but it gets harder and harder as time
goes on and dependency on the net increases.  Losing process control
computers would be really bad.  There are processes that can't be run
by hand at all, they are unstable and people are too slow.

I wonder if there was any consideration for the possible consequences
before this started?

Keith