[ExI] Hard Takeoff

[Natasha Vita-More]

Michael wrote: 

> What I find is that people don't like the *connotations* of AI and are
much more concerned about the possibility  
> of THEM PERSONALLY sparking the Singularity with intelligence enhancement,
so therefore they underestimate  
> the probability of the former simply because they never care to look into
it very deeply. "
 
This is probably true because most people don't understand strong AI or what
a Singularity (whether one big event or a series of surges forming a big
event over time.) 
 
> There is also a cultural dynamic in transhumanism whereby interest in hard
takeoff AGI is considered  
> "SIAI-like" and implies that one must be culturally associated with SIAI.
" 
 
Well let's look at your last statement. Diverse views about a hard takeoff
were around before SIAI.  You are correct that SIAI is one well-known
organization within transhumanism, but the Singularity is larger than SIAI
and has many varied views/theories which are addressed by transhumanists and
nontranshumanists.  
 
I don't associate with any one line of thinking on the Singularity.  I
pretty  much stick with Vinge and have my own views based on my own research
and scenario development.  I think SIAI has done great work and has produced
amazing events.  The only problem I have ever had with SIAI is that it does
not include women like me -- women who have been around for a long time and
could contribute something meaningful to the conversation, outside of Eli's
dismissal of women and/or media design as a substantial field o of inquiry
and consequential to our future of AGIs.  But you and I have had this
conversation several time before and I see nothing has changed.
 
By the way, since you applauded a guy who dissed me a couple of years ago
for my talk at the Goertzel's AI conference, I thought you might like to
know that Kevin Kelly has a new book out _What Technology Wants_, which
addresses technology from a similar thematic vantage as I addressed the
Singularity and AI in my talk about what AGI wants and its intended
consequences.
 
Nevertheless, you are one of my favorite transhumanists and I admire your
work. 
 
By the way, this list's discussion on the Singularity was too focused on Eli
and in a disparaging way.  I support and encourage more discussion from
varied perspectives and I think that Stefano did a good job at this
objectively presenting his own views, whether I agree with him or not they
are far better than attacking Eli.
 
Best,
Natasha
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