[ExI] Computer power needed for AGI [WAS Re: Hard Takeoff-money]

[Richard Loosemore]

Samantha Atkins wrote:
>>> But wait.  The first AGIs will likely be ridiculously expensive.

> Keith Henson wrote:
>> Why?  The programming might be until someone has a conceptual 
>> breakthrough.  But the most powerful super computers in the world
>> are _less_ powerful than large numbers of distributed PCs.  see 
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS
> 
> Because: a) it is not known or much expected AGI will run on
> conventional computers; b) a back of envelop calculation of
> equivalent processing power to the human brain puts that much
> capacity, at great cost, a decade out and two decades or more out
> before it is easily affordable at human competitive rates; c) we have
> not much idea of the software needed even given the computational
> capacity.

Not THIS argument again!  :-)

If, as you say, "we do not have much idea of the software needed" for an 
AGI, how is it that you can say "the first AGIs will likely be 
ridiculously expensive"....?!

After saying that, you do a back of the envelope calculation that 
assumes we need the same parallel computing capacity as the human 
brain..... a pointless calculation, since you claim not to know how you 
would go about building an AGI, no?

Those of us actually working on the problem -- actually trying to build 
functioning, safe AGI systems -- who have developed some reasonably 
detailed architectures on which calculations can be made, might deliver 
a completely different estimate.  In my case, I have done such estimates 
in the past, and the required HARDWARE capacity comes out at roughly the 
hardware capacity of a late 1980s-era supercomputer....

If you want to know what the corresponds to in today's terms, you do the 
math.....

(Hint:  I have about that much in my barn).

;-)



Richard Loosemore