[ExI] Computer power needed for AGI [WAS Re: Hard Takeoff-money]

[Samantha Atkins]

On Nov 17, 2010, at 6:51 AM, Richard Loosemore wrote:

> Samantha Atkins wrote:
>> On Nov 16, 2010, at 9:41 AM, Richard Loosemore wrote:
>>> Samantha Atkins wrote:
>>>>>> But wait.  The first AGIs will likely be ridiculously
>>>>>> expensive.
>>>> Keith Henson wrote:
>>>>> Why?  The programming might be until someone has a conceptual
>>>>> breakthrough.  But the most powerful super computers in the
>>>>> world are _less_ powerful than large numbers of distributed
>>>>> PCs.  see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS
>>>> Because: a) it is not known or much expected AGI will run on conventional computers; b) a back of envelop calculation of equivalent processing power to the human brain puts that much capacity, at great cost, a decade out and two decades or more out
>>>> before it is easily affordable at human competitive rates; c) we
>>>> have not much idea of the software needed even given the
>>>> computational capacity.
>>> Not THIS argument again!  :-)
>>> If, as you say, "we do not have much idea of the software needed"
>>> for an AGI, how is it that you can say "the first AGIs will likely
>>> be ridiculously expensive"....?!
>> Because of (b) of course.  The brute force approach, brain emulation
>> or at least as much processing power as step one, is very expensive
>> and will be for some time to come.
> 
> There are a whole host of assumptions built into that statement, most of them built on thin air.
> 
> Just because whole brain emulation seems feasible to you (... looks nice and easy, doesn't it?  Heck, all you have to do is make a copy of an existing human brain!  How hard can that be?) ... does not mean that any of the assumptions you are making about it are even vaguely realistic.

The human brain is the only working general intelligence of sufficient power to be interesting that we have.  Thus it is logical to think about what general intelligence might require in terms of attempts to calculate the processing power of the human brain.  Whether you believe brain emulation is feasible or not this is a reasonable back of envelope calculation.  Which is all I claimed.  As you are a working AGI researcher I don't think that I am saying anything you aren't aware of.  So why are you kicking up this kind of fuss?  

> 
> You assume feasibility, usability, cost....   You also assume that in the course of trying to do WBE we will REMAIN so ignorant of the thing we are copying that we will not be able to find a way to implement it more effectively in more modest hardware....
> 

I presume nothing more than the paucity of evidence for what might be required as is generally available.  That's all.  I can't estimate anything on future hypothetical breakthroughs and understandings.  Many current researchers who say they are aiming for AGI make the same estimates or much higher ones of early model costs and processing power required.  So again, why are you making this fuss?


> But from out of that huge pile of shaky assumptions you are somehow able to conclude that this WILL be the most likely first AGI and this WILL stay just as expensive at now seems to be.
> 

This is not worth my time.  Later.   

- samantha