[ExI] Hard Takeoff

[spike]

On Behalf Of The Avantguardian
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hard Takeoff

> > 
> > Michael Anissimov writes:
> > 
>> > We have real, evidence-based arguments for an abrupt takeoff.  One 
>> > is that the human speed and quality of thinking is not necessarily any
sort of 
>> > optimal thing, thus we shouldn't be shocked if another intelligent 
>> > species can easily surpass us as we surpassed others...

Samantha writes:
 
>> There is sound argument that we are not the pinnacle of possible
intelligence.
...

>Samantha, this sounds like you agree with me about my general criticism of
hard takeoff, even if you have quibbles about the specifics of my argument.
 >Software optimizing itself to its full existing potential is one thing
but reseting its existing potential to an even higher potential is unlikely
on such a short >time scale. Too much innovation would be required
especially for such a short time period...Stuart LaForge

The human brain has some inherent limitations, most specifically that we get
tired, and there are not enough of us.  Consider top level chess.  Human
elite players, top 100 in the world, can still play a competitive game
against ordinary 100 dollar chess programs running on an ordinary 500 dollar
laptop computer, but they must invest really intense concentration for about
four hours, after which they are exhausted.  The computer on the other hand
is immediately ready for another game, and can run two or more high quality
games simultaneously, it can run day and night, it can replicate itself
arbitrarily many times, all while the six billion strong human race is stuck
right at around 100 or so players (and declining) capable of such
concentration, at a rate of one game a day at most.  Silicon based recursive
self-improvement is implemented by this ability to laser focus on the same
problem over indefinite periods, in arbitrary numbers.

If we continue with the chess analogy, the human race has been playing the
game in its current form for right at 500 years.  Many very focused players
have dedicated their lives to this tragically wasteful preoccupation, and
recorded their findings.  Chess playing software can re-derive that
half-millennium of chess theory and surpass it in just a few days, or
shorter if the task is spread over a sufficient number of processors.

spike