[ExI] Two Paths to Further Shrink Computer Chips
sjatkins at mac.com
Tue Sep 7 08:34:26 UTC 2010
On 9/2/10 3:47 PM, John Grigg wrote:
> Tomasz Rola wrote:
> This sounds nice, gives hopes that one day building a 1000-core cpu will
> be trivial (and I feel pervert pleasure thinking I would one day buy it
> used from internet for the cost of pocket radio).
> My question to everyone here... How many years until we have a
> 1000-core cpu (or something equivalent) as a household desktop
> computer? My optimistic estimate is within ten years or by 2020. And
> what exactly would the number crunching/calculating power of a
> 1000-core cpu be?
About 5 years would be my guess. Sooner in GPUs. Which are probably
part of the development path to such but made fit for more general
> I thought at first such a machine would simply be 500 times more
> powerful than let's say a current dual processor computer, but
> considering each individual processor may easily be a hundred times as
> powerful as a cpu now, I would think this hypothetical machine would
> literally be thousands of times more powerful than an average pc from
> today. Oh, and what about price?
I doubt you will get both at the same time in that timeframe. Massively
more cores seems to be the current direction rather than much faster
clock rate. I think it will take longer to get things like hyperfast
graphene transistors out of the lab and into consumer chips. I do
think you will see massive static memory chips for very cheap in about
about the same time frame and a couple of orders of magnitude faster.
> I'm looking forward to being gee-wowed!!! : )
Most of the software you run will probably bloat to match. :P
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