[ExI] solar is looking better all the time: was RE: Efficiency of wind power

[Eugen Leitl]

On Sun, Apr 17, 2011 at 10:04:22PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> > I pointed out the reason why Moore scales that way
> > and why solar doesn't. USD/Wp is subject to world demand, USD/Wp
> > installed is a lot higher, since inverters don't follow the same
> > price curve, installation costs are basically constant, and grid
> > upgrade costs are also nothing like that.
> 
> Agreed. Nanosolar takes the position that solar installations should
> not be per house, but per neighborhood or small city, thus reducing
> the per household cost of the inverters. I disagree that installation

Inverters are still power electronics, and inverters don't upgrade
the grid so it can deal with multiple, variable points of power
injection. It is the grid that is keeping us down at the moment.
Alternatively, large scale electrochemical energy storage, which
allows to keep the power local so the grid needs less capacity.

> costs are constant, particularly with the Nanosolar approach of using
> farming implements to install huge arrays of PV panels at the speed of
> plowing. That would be MUCH cheaper than putting solar panels on each
> roof. Installation costs in space are also much different set of cats

Roofs need to be put up no matter what. Factoring in PV at
design stage results only in minor incremental costs.

> to skin than one per roof.

In densely populated places free space is a premium.
 
> > Kurzweil said he expects 100% of renewable *total* power,
> > world wide. This means a substitution rate of 1 TW/year, for
> > the next 20 years. As the current substution rate is negligible,
> > and he believes in linear semilog plots, this means most of
> > substution will happen in the last 1-2 years.
> 
> Yeah, RK has trouble sometimes differentiating between PURE

Sometimes always.

> information technologies, and those that are also tied to
> infrastructure. His continued failure to predict when we all talk to
> our computers rather than type is typical of this blind spot. Not
> everyone has four walls around them, or is comfortable talking to
> their machine.
> 
> >> it's size. The period of halving the price is estimated at around 3
> >> years.
> >
> > Germany doubled PV from 1% to 2% within about a year. Will this year
> > double it to 4%? Unfortunately, probably not. Will the next year see it
> > to 8%? Definitely not. The year after to 16%? The next, to 32%? And then,
> > to 64%, and then to 128%?
> 
> RK's halving claim is only the price of the PV, I don't think it has

No, Ray claims that in 20 years the world will be powered by 100%
solar energy, total.

http://www.psfk.com/2011/02/kurzweil-predicts-100-solar-power-in-20-years.html

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_energy_usage_width_chart.svg

It's 100x since 1970 for sure, but it's still only 0.04% of total.
So if it doubles every two years, that's

2010 0.04%
2012 0.08%
2014 0.16%
2016 0.32%
2018 0.64%
2020 1.28%
2022 2.56%
2024 5.12%
2026 10.2%
2028 20.5%
2030 51.2%
2032 100%

Total demand should be a lot more than 15 TW by then, but
that's close enough. Just check above numbers ever two years,
and see how the prediction fares.

> anything to do with the installation rate, unless I missed that claim.
> I suppose that he believes if it is cheaper, it will be installed
> quickly, which has a certain logic, but we can't all become solar
> installers unless the installation process becomes much easier.
> Perhaps RK thinks all the solar will be installed by robots... :-)

It's pretty much how it has to happen in order for it to become
reality. Including robotic electricians upgrading the grid.
 
> > Singularity is sure quicker, but Singularity in 20 years? It's always
> > 20, 30 years away.
> 
> Depends on which definition of Singularity you choose, I suppose. If
> your definition is the year that without computers we would have
> something close to an extinction event for humanity, then perhaps we
> are already there... ;-)

The interesting threshold is when people cease to matter, both
as planners and as executing agents.

Schedule an gedanken rapture every year, how long until everything
grinds to a halt? We know we're making progress if the clock continues
ticking longer and longer every year.

Needless to say, right now we don't look very good.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE