[ExI] "Reality Check," a book of predictions

[John Grigg]

I came across "Reality Check," a book published by Wired in 1996, and
written by Brad Wieners and David Pescovitz, with a foreward by Bruce
Sterling.  These are the predictions within their timeline...

Bruce Sterling writes, "This book, despite it's out-there graphic design, is
all-too-comprehensible.  It's not the future, because it can't be, but it is
a whole sizzling stack of today's sexist ideas about the future, and hunt as
you might, you won't find a better treatment of these ideas."

I'm not so sure if even back in '96, if this was the best treatment for
these ideas.  As an example, short of a full-blown singularity, I find it
unlikely that anyone is going to be coming back from cryonic suspension (as
compared to suspended animation) in 2043...  And I'm sure a number of you
will enjoy looking at the pre-2011 predictions to see how accurate they
turned out to be.  I realize some of these have more to do with the
political will of the U.S., than merely technological progress.

Have fun!

John  : )


1996  Genetically engineered weapons of war
1997  Affordable home cd recorders
         Movies on demand
         Intelligent Agents
1998  E-cash gets real
         First virtual graduating class
         Flat rate phone service
1999  Male birth control pill
         Overnight custom clothing
2000  Gene therapy for cancer
2001  Solar powered automobiles
         Fortune 500 virtual corporation
         Global wireless telephone number
2002  Aids vaccine available
         Computer handwriting recognition
         Fat-destroying pill
         Remote-controlled surgery
2003  Universal picture phones
         One-fifth of U.S. workers telecommute
2004  Commercially viable nanotech
         Solar power to the people
         Most U.S. produce genetically engineered
2005  Computer defeats human chess master
         Universal organ donor animal
         Housecleaning robot
         Software superdistribution
2006  Self-cleaning toilets hit home
         Effective hair-loss prevention
         One-fourth of U.S. homes get smart
2007  Fiber in the home
         Smart fabrics go mainstream
         Online mass retailer as big as Sears
2008  Hemp-based auto fuel
         20 percent of U.S. consumers tele-grocery shop
2009  VR sunglasses
         Orgasmotron
2010  Smart Drugs
         Robot surgeon in a pill
         Audio cd becomes a format of second choice
2013  The book goes digital
2014  Supersonic flight for the masses
         Online advertising eclipses TV commercials
         Aquaculture provides a majority of U.S. seafood
2015  Food tablets provide complete nutrition
2016  Holophone
         First large, public virtual library
2017  Automated highway systems in U.S. cities
2019  Decriminalization of drugs in the U.S.
         Self-driving vehicles
         Interoperable objects
2020  Humans on Mars
         "Sober up" drug
2021  Commercially viable magnetic levitation trains in the United States
2022  Entirely ex utero fetal development
2023  Tricorder
2025  Contact with extraterrestrial intelligence
2029  Cell repair technology
2034  More than 50 percent drive electric cars
2036  Teledildonics
2043  First cryonic reanimation
2044  Self-replicating robot
2047  C3P0 becomes a reality
2051  Most U.S. food grown hydroponically
2055  Virtual sex slave
2225  "Dial a mood" (I don't understand the date given)

Unlikely  End of two party system in the United States
Unlikely  Jetpacks for personal transportation
Unlikely  Orbiting solar power plant

Never  An interactive tv in every home (they admit it may come to be)
Never  The paperless office (the same thing)
Never  Human clones (the ethical problems)
Never  Virtual war (cyberwar yes, but real world conflict will always be
there, they claim)
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