[ExI] Did Hugo de Garis leave the field?

[Stefano Vaj]

On 24 April 2011 15:26, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> Fusion might be similar - unlike AI it has some very firm theory underlying
> the field, all the problems are in engineering. Yet hot fusion seems to have
> the same perennial optimism without radical progress as AI.

Extrapolations assume that techical skills, interest, mobilisation,
creativity, lateral thinking and breakthrough capabilities, invested
resources, risk propension, paradigm shift pace, etc. remain the same
or increase with time.

In retrospect, I am inclined to believe on the contrary that what the
nice Kurzweilian S-shaped curves really describe are a few
exceptionally "magic" periods on a background of substantial
stagnation, the most important of which is probably that from 1860 to
1960.

Now, my personal assumption is that, be it space, AI, nuclear fusion
or radical genetic engineering, what is actually lacking for the
relevant promises to be kept is the appropriate cultural and societal
background. Were this in place, I suspect that science and engineering
would take care of themselves.

-- 
Stefano Vaj