[ExI] Machine Intelligence Survey

[Anders Sandberg]

Amara D. Angelica wrote:
>
> I just posted a news item on this:
>
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-will-achieve-human-level-intelligence-in-the-2028-to-2150-range-poll. 
>
>
> Please feel free to comment.
>
>  
>
Cool!

Coincidentally, I put up some extra diagrams and a blog post analysing 
people's probability distribution a bit more here today:

http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/04/ai_overlords_and_their_deciles.html
http://www.flickr.com/photos/arenamontanus/sets/72157626583204714/with/5657887546/

Maybe more of interest for the statistics nerds among us, although the 
overall diagram of inferred probability of human level AI
http://www.flickr.com/photos/arenamontanus/5657887546/in/set-72157626583204714
looks rather nice. Note that the mode (the peak) occurs earlier than the 
actual mean or median - essentially the data predicts the 2030's to be 
potentially dynamic. This might of course represent people's personal 
mental horizon rather than anything real :-)


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute 
James Martin 21st Century School 
Philosophy Faculty 
Oxford University