[ExI] Status as human motivator

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Wed Apr 27 10:58:16 UTC 2011

On Wed, Apr 27, 2011 at 12:37:46PM +0200, Jones Murphy wrote:
> Shorting is not based on exact predictions at all. All you need to be
> right about is that the stock goes down at some point in the future.
> That's it. If the market is as irrational as you claim, it must
> eventually collapse. All irrationality must collide with reality
> sooner or later.

Such periodic readjustments happen. We're overdue for a big one.

Trying to predict a particular time point of a market collapse
is a fool's game, as you well know. Just knowing that it will
happen eventually is not a particularly useful bit of information,
unless you use it to minimize your exposure to consequence of

The causes have been analyzed by many people, so I see no point
in reiterating why we're overdue for a Big One. If you don't know
by now no amount of evidence will convince you.

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