[ExI] Michael Nielsen on Singularity

[Adrian Tymes]

On Thu, Jan 13, 2011 at 8:59 AM, Richard Loosemore <rpwl at lightlink.com> wrote:
> scerir wrote:
>>
>> What should a reasonable person believe about the Singularity?
>>
>> http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/what-should-a-reasonable-person-believe-about-the-singularity/
>
> I posted the following reply to Michael Nielsen's essay:

I posted something similar.  MN seemed to discount the first anon's rather
correct summary of his thoughts.  Yes, the Singularity would require a series
of steps to occur.  No, you can't just blindly slap a "reasonable" range of
probabilities on each step, multiply them together (assuming the same null
hypothesis in each case: if any one of those steps fails, the world
remains as it
is today), and be done with it.