[ExI] Probability of being affected by terrorism [WAS Re: Mass transit]

[Anders Sandberg]

spike wrote:

> I hope you are right Anders.  I dread the day when terrorists discover the
> multiplier effect of triggering a panicked stampede, by setting off three
> relatively small explosions in succession in a stadium for instance,

Yup. That would achieve a great multiplier effect. Not to mention the 
psychological extra impact of affecting an environment most people have 
been in, triggering thoughts of "I could have been there".

But this kind of planning is rare. Delayed explosives for when medics 
arrive seem to be more common. Generally terrorism planning seems to be 
bad and conservative, which is good. That fact that it looks like 
anybody with a cool head and no heart could come up with absolutely 
devastating attacks with a bit of (untraceable) planning implies either 
that it is much harder than it looks, or that there are strong 
countervailing reasons in the terrorist community for aiming at maximal 
damage.

So this means we should be more concerned about non-standard terrorists 
than standard ones. Dark greens who think civilization must be 
sabotaged, new ideological groupings that have no ties to the old ways 
of doing terrorism, visionaries trying out "new media" for terrorism - 
these might lack whatever limitations hold standard terrorists back. The 
biggest problem with them is that they will likely not be on the radar 
for the agencies efficiently trying to stop terrorism (and of course, 
they will be completely beyond the security theatre and efforts to meet 
specific threats - while they are looking at passenger shoes, the 
airborne prions are quietly seeping through the terminal...)

Still, first things first. Ageing is a far more important problem than 
people trying to make us feel insecure.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute 
James Martin 21st Century School 
Philosophy Faculty 
Oxford University