[ExI] Limiting factors of intelligence explosion speeds

[Keith Henson]

On Thu, Jan 20, 2011 at 5:00 AM,  Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

snip

> Some factors that have been mentioned in past discussions:
>    Economic growth rate
>    Investment availability
>    Gathering of empirical information (experimentation, interacting
> with an environment)
>    Software complexity
>    Hardware demands vs. available hardvare
>    Bandwidth
>    Lightspeed lags
>
> Clearly many more can be suggested. But which bottlenecks are the most
> limiting, and how can this be ascertained?

There is a historical example, almost 10 years old now, that combines
several of these considerations.

Go to slide #13 here:

http://www.slidefinder.net/w/worms_adapted_vitaly_shmatikov_austin/24249603

An initial doubling time of 8.5 seconds was mentioned.  "Slammer" more
or less took down the Internet in 30 minutes.

Keith

PS

The paranoid among us might want to consider the possibility that
runaway machine intelligence has already happened.  (Ghod knows what
goes on in unused cloud computing capacity.)  The question is how we
might recognize it?  Would things start happen?  What?  Anything?
Would machine intelligence stay where it was unnoticed?