[ExI] Inevitability of the Singularity (was Re: To Max, re Natasha and Extropy (Kevin Haskell)

[Kelly Anderson]

On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 8:32 AM, Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 5 July 2011 17:55, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
>> My point is that what people perceive currently to be in their self
>> interest is unlikely to turn on a dime.
>
> I am not sure I understand the idiom, but my point is that perceived
> self-interest may equally create a "market demand" for Singularity as
> for regression to paleolithic scenarios...

An ocean liner cannot turn on a dime, but a Segway can. It refers to
the speed of change a system is capable of. Economics is not a system
that can be quickly ditched. We do see some movement away from money
driven economics in Wiki...Land and the Open Source movement, but
those are merely growing niches for the moment. I see the market
demand pushing much more in the direction of the Singularity than in
the direction of neopaleolithic scenarios.

>> The thing is that by the time the meme is widespread enough to prevent
>> the Singularity, it will already be too late for most people to change
>> their minds.
>
> Let us hope so. My concern is that contrary to the opinion widespread
> in the H+ circles the momentum of change is not that of an object
> merrily flying in intergalactic space out of any resisting influence,
> is actually more similar to that of a man trying to run in quicksand.
> A constant, overhuman effort is required to keep it up.

OK.

> Past success (sometimes against all bets...) may be an encouragement,
> but has no predictive value as to what is going to happen in the
> future. Especially if we chose to rest on our great past laurels and
> expect Kurzweil's curves to land automagically a Singularity or
> another on our lap.

We do have to keep working at it, for sure. And until someone comes up
with a different rationale, I'll stick with Kurzweil as a first
approximation to what is likely to happen. Perhaps, you'll just have
to call it faith in human nature.

-Kelly