[ExI] Inevitability of the Singularity (was Re: To Max, re Natasha and Extropy (Kevin Haskell)

[Tomasz Rola]

On Thu, 14 Jul 2011, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> On Tue, Jul 12, 2011 at 8:45 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
[...]
> 
> > I have serious issues with people dismissing some potential
> > two billion loss to starvation and war as no big deal.
> 
> It isn't so much that it is a small thing, it's just the sort of thing
> we have solved on a regular basis for many years in the face of many
> threats. How much did we spend in WWII to solve the Hitler problem? A
> lot. We had a big problem and we solved it.

This is not the best example, really. Actually it is a half-example, at 
best. US spent a lot on WW2 and I don't deny it. On the other hand, US 
gained much more than they spent. Literally tons of German know-how (and 
some from other countries) had been transported to US, as well as 
thousands of scientists, engineers and other specialists (Operation 
Paperclip). Next, impending phantom of Soviet invasion asked for US 
military assistance in Western Europe - this was very good for Western 
Europe and even better for US, IMHO. Last but not least, a great number of 
folks running away from Hitler (and later, even years after the war, from 
living in communism, however good this could have been), mostly educated 
(we've got education thing right in this part of the world, event thou it 
undergoes a lot of downprovement recently). They all went mostly to US 
(including maybe half of my fellow students during first half of the 
90-ties - all with technical masters degrees).

Now, to make it all clear - I don't blame US for being US. However I think 
there is nasty tendency to constantly rewrite and reinterpret history 
along ideallistic-idyllic lines. I mean, do whatever you do, just make an 
effort and stick to the facts (this can be also called honesty - but 
of course I don't accuse you [Kelly] of not being honest). On the other 
hand, if US folk en masse chooses living in their own dream about the 
world, well, not quite my problem.

Overally, what US gained during WW2 has kept them running for at least 
fifty years. Just my holy opinion.

> If global warming becomes
> as big an issue as Hitler's Germany, we will then apply the resources
> necessary to overcome the problem. By then, however, it may be very
> late to do anything useful. However, we'll have a lot more
> intellectual resources to attack the problem than we do now.

I'm too afraid of betting on future history, but I can bet they will make 
a number of Oscar winning films after that (with blood and shit 
censored, so as to not scare away families from the cinemas, or whatever 
they will call those places then).

> > Extremely unlikely stability. We're up to our ears in alligators for the
> > foreseeable future.
> 
> We have enjoyed unusual climatic stability in the last 10,000 years.
> It is unreasonable to assume that would continue forever in any
> case...
> 
> In Risk assessment, you address the risks in order of ((threat
> potential damage * threat probability) / cost to address). Global
> warming doesn't come close to the top 20 global risks when you apply
> this formula. For example, the threat of dirty water is a daily
> reality in the lives of about a billion people. The cost to fix that
> problem is approximately 20 billion dollars, world wide. The
> probability of the problem is 1. So this is a threat we should address
> immediately, aggressively. Likewise, malaria. See the activities of
> the the Gates foundation.

Yes, let's hope they do something positive. Even if at the same time they 
evade taxes (don't know if they do), if this ends malaria I can accept it.

Regards
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **