[ExI] Usages of the term libertarianism

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Sat Jun 4 09:04:39 UTC 2011

On Fri, Jun 03, 2011 at 04:23:19PM -0700, Damien Sullivan wrote:
> On Fri, Jun 03, 2011 at 11:58:28AM +0200, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> > In 2009, the energy tally was
> > 
> > Oil 34.6%
> > Natural gas 21.7%
> > Lignite 11.4%
> > Bituminous coal 11.1%
> > Nuclear power 11.0%
> > Hydro and wind power 1.5%
> > Others 9.0%
> > 
> > Puts these 17% of renewable electricity production in perspective.
> > I estimated nuclear to be 9% of electricity at the moment, due to 
> > 7 GW capacity.
> The number in all the articles is nuclear 22% of electricity, renewables

There are 5 (could be 4 even) of total 17 reactors operating
at the moment, producing maximum 7 GW, according
to http://www.heise.de/tp/artikel/34/34773/2.html
As you see the conventional power production had to
rarely to cover more than 45 GW, while solar PV
alone peaks at 14 to 15 GW.

Would this stay that way nuclear would be at about 9%
(check my math).

Power isn't additive, so if you can match peak most
of the time you can build back plants with high
termal inertia and substitute them with agile 
high-efficieny (gas turbine (up 60%), micro 
co-gen (>80%) swarm) producers which would ramp
up quickly but needed very rarely at full capacity. 
You must do this to be able to cover worst-case as 
long as you can't store or transport power long-distance.

> 17%, having climbed from 6% a decade go.

Unfortunately, of these 17% (2009, data should
be visibly better in 2011) you've got

40.4% wind
20.3% hydro
19.8% biomass
11.8% biogas
 6.6% solar


Both hydro and biomass are mature and should shrink proportionally.
Wind won't (shouldn't) grow nearly so fast, so the
brunt should be taken by PV. The yellow-blacks don't
like PV and are actively killing it:



The plan is pretty obviously limiting renewable growth,
postpone nuclear exit until 2022 sharp, then suddenly switch
off everything and produce artificial shortages. Meanwhile,
the large operators are suing and will likely win and be
compensated by the taxpayer, or lose, and be compensated by
their customers by jacking up prices, again.

As you see, these people are not stupid, and they're not
our friends.

The only good thing is that time for such shenanigans is
coming to a close as PV in Germany should cross over with
residential rates within a decade or less, and if they can't
launch Desertec with taxpayer-backed power purchase
guarantees the individual users will start bypassing the
grid even if FITs are down to zero.

Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
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