[ExI] China model vs. US model

[Kelly Anderson]

2011/11/10 John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>:
> On Thu, Nov 10, 2011 at 8:38 PM, Joseph Bloch
> <seculartranshumanist at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
> As I looked over the audience I notice very few people in their twenties or
> even thirties. I found this both sad and astonishing, since young people are
> the ones who will have to deal with this coming of age rival superpower that
> within 15 years will outstrip us economically. I could have been visiting a
> retirement home...

I was under the impression that China would have the world's largest
economy by 2017... what is this 15 year thing? Is that when they
outstrip us on a per capita basis?

It is hardly arguable that the overall Chinese system is better than
the US system at this moment in history. The US system is over
burdened by unnecessary bureaucracy in the form of OSHA, FDA, EPA, and
a dozen other like departments. I rather doubt that the government in
China consists of 15% of the overall economy, but I don't know for
sure about that.

We are also held back by years of idiotic bargaining with unions that
were hell bent on delivering the goods today, to hell with tomorrow.
When large car companies make more money off of their retirement funds
than from building cars, there's a problem.

We also have the entitlement issue which is truly the third rail of
American politics. Nobody wants to deal with that mess in a sane
fashion.

We also have one of the most complex tax systems ever conceived of by
man. When you only get the right answer to your question 30% of the
time when you call the IRS itself, there's something wrong.

None of this makes me a communist, of course... I see long term
problems facing China. Once they have a generation of spoiled only
children with concentrated wealth, the political climate will change,
and those spoiled children will be asking for more political freedoms.

The five year plans have been working for China, but that doesn't
guarantee that they will continue to work. They have computers and
better data than the old Soviet planners, and so they are likely to
make better decisions... and maybe they'll turn the whole economy over
to an advanced AI system at some point and really go crazy good.

Can America compete? Sure, we can. But the last three years have
really pushed us in the direction of ineffectiveness by the immense
power grab in Washington. I'm sure there's some parallel to the senate
in Rome, prior to Augustus... and perhaps America is ripe for a
dictator to do a power grab. If not now, maybe in another decade of
decline such a monster will arise. At that point, I'll be glad if I
can get myself and my family out of here. It won't be pretty if that
is the future we face. Just imagine a dictator with direct power over
as much of the economy as we've put into the hands of government. It
could be a bumpy ride kids!

-Kelly