From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 02:01:21 2012
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sat, 31 Mar 2012 22:01:21 -0400
Subject: [ExI] 5th Grade Science Fair -- Evolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaUY-yXYfGB08ykteu21r-PSXG4qz2zFr1eC1q0+YB9EA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwacbOK+NMwErk9xLKWK=LjJMJfePfPd_SKUN728o7-oYg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKPwdFkqDifXgJaE3A3ATJb7X9S5eW2B0_kLC-1rdCKBg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Mar 30, 2012 at 10:55 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> To make this experiment mean something over the long term, we would
> need to have more mutations... can anyone think of a sure fire way to
> create mutations in fruit flies...

If comic books are a source of any insight, all you have to do is put
the boring old fruit flies near some radioactive sludge and you get
superhero fruit flies.  (that's a big IF however)

"Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana"


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Apr  1 02:01:25 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 04:01:25 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhHqKeXp3D-Vmv9GySadCLb=eAOShz9xxH04srsywoOVw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
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On Sat, 31 Mar 2012, BillK wrote:

> On Sat, Mar 31, 2012 at 8:57 PM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> > Database sizes are irrelevant, you're running a highly specialized system,
> > not stock Oracle.
> >
> > It's perfectly possible to keep ~PByte/rack online, and I would put
> > the limit at 10^4 racks/facility. So in practice you're looking at
> > ~10 EByte/facility. It's probably more ~1 EByte/facility.
> >
> >
> 
> 
> kilobyte (kB) 	10^3 	
> megabyte (MB) 	10^6 	
> gigabyte (GB) 	10^9 	
> terabyte (TB) 	10^12
> petabyte (PB) 	10^15
> exabyte (EB) 	10^18
> zettabyte (ZB) 	10^21
> yottabyte (YB) 	10^24
> 
> The original article says 'as a 2007 Department of Defense report puts
> it, the Pentagon is attempting to expand its worldwide communications
> network, known as the Global Information Grid, to handle yottabytes
> (1024 bytes) of data.'
> 
> Wikipedia says:
> In January 2012, Cray began construction of the Blue Waters
> Supercomputer, which will have a capacity of 500 petabytes making it
> the largest storage array ever, if realized.
> ------------

I think there needs to be made a distinction between:

- storage array - based on multiple hard drives - good for example, to 
process grandiose matrixes... lets say square matrixes having 10^8 rows 
and columns of double precision floats and you want to multiply two of 
them... a trivial algorithm wouldn't fit into any supercomputer memory, 
AFAIK (K-computer has about 1,3PB of RAM = 80000 nodes * 16GB RAM each, 
by wikipedia). I'm not sure if there is any better than trivial for this. 
Anyway, by definition of matrix *, you need to go through one matrix many, 
many times. One such matrix takes 8 bytes per doublefloat * (10^8)^2 = 
80PB = 80000 * 1TB disk... But perhaps it could be done with tapes, I 
really don't know. I mean, without burning them.

- tape library - is made of tapes, plus enclosure (possibly hermetic) plus 
some robots inside - good if you have a Library of Congress and you want 
to count word occurance frequency. You only need to go throu the whole 
data once and you are done.

> So for yottabytes the NSA must either be thinking years in the future,
> or planning many separate but linked data centres.

Ehem, something like, say, 1000 DCs each having 1000EB capacity - and 
considering 1EB = 10^6 * 1TB, I wonder if world's combined tape production 
capacity can deliver this much - and how quickly. For perspective, before 
2011 flood in Thailand took about 1/3 of capacity, hard drive production 
was about +650 million pieces annually. So, about one data center in two 
years, assuming they all have 1TB drives and suck whole world's 
production for themselves. All in all, a hell of rare elements ore is 
needed. I mean, I guess.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 07:55:15 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 01:55:15 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120329085759.GV14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAPoR7a4zAHiE-LZSqX4MZ7ZowN7gc5v4H-ATecs+dxFecosW7g@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbZbRN9oFB_QJcPBSdWoppwZJqsRMbqiJnM4grSVmnvzQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 29, 2012 at 2:57 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Wed, Mar 28, 2012 at 09:16:44AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> In the LONG term, isn't absolute complete transparency of everyone and
>> everything the only real answer? The trend seems to be away from
>
> No. Because it asymmetrically empowers the bad guys. Sharing is
> a voluntary act. You need to work to share. In order to retain
> your secrets, you do nothing.

Sharing with my friends, and keeping such things secret from the bad
guys... That requires effort. More and more effort every day. And I
don't think it's going to get any easier.

> Think secrecy is bad? Abolish anonymous voting, then.

That is an interesting point. And perhaps we should, but how would you
guarantee no blow back... that's a tough one. Of course anyone with a
third of a brain could figure out who I'm not going to vote for.

> Military intelligence data and Apple campus should be open to
> everybody. Members of Congress should be fine with 24 hour
> video surveillance, with full GPS track, and IDs of whatever
> people they interacted with. Everybody should know what
> the Lawrence Livermore guys are cooking. I mean, everybody
> should have access to the plans and the plutonium storage
> facility. Nuclear weapons want to be free, and so want human
> pathogens.

In the future, despite our best efforts, such technological secrets
will be available to everyone. No matter what we do now. That's the
point.

>> personal privacy, away from government secrecy, towards open sharing.
>> Is this trend something that can be stopped? Is it something that
>
> I don't know which universe you live in, but I see the exact opposite.
> *This* trend needs to be stopped.

I'll give you a counter example. IF my medical records were not
protected by HIPPA laws, I would be able to get better medical care.
If my medical data were available publicly in a database, then smart
bots could electronically "screen" me for various medical problems,
and I might be made aware of an illness way ahead of time.

>> SHOULD be stopped? When individuals obtain the requisite technology to
>> wipe out all intelligent life, is privacy sustainable?
>
> Have you ever tried to account for fissibles in a processing facility?
> And transport? They do transport plutonium in unmarked trucks, on public
> roads. I think everybody should know the exact transport route. Just to
> prevent that plutonium falls in the wrong hands. (The only right hands
> are *mine*).

Don't be silly. I'm not saying that there isn't anything that
shouldn't be kept private for a period of time... Where the plutonium
trucks are NOW should be hard to find out. Where the plutonium trucks
have been... there's a good argument to be made that everyone should
know that. Maybe.

>> Asking it a different way. If everyone in the world had a button, that
>> if pushed would end the world, how long would the world last? Knowing
>> that the answer is "seconds, if that long"... and knowing that
>> individuals will likely obtain such technology some day in the not too
>> distant future... Could privacy survive in such a world? Should
>> privacy be allowed to survive in such a world?
>
> Why do you want to live as Vinge's Emergents? You yearn to become
> human automation?
>
>> My motto, "Privacy is dead, get over it."
>
> If you think that, you're not just one of the useful idiots.
> You're actually the enemy. You're the enabler. Worse, you're
> a hypocrite. Because you will not give up your SS number, your
> banking details and your tax returns (the real ones, not the
> ones you filed), your medical record including full DNA
> sequence (your insurance would dearly love that), full multimedia
> coverage of your sex acts and all your transactions, in full video and
> audio.

The world isn't enabled to handle all of those details today. However,
if they were, I have no problem sharing all of those things. And I do
file my taxes fairly, other than one year when I got bad tax advise,
and then I payed too much.

>> If DCFS would install and monitor cameras in every room of my house, I
>> would let them. Why? Because it would protect me from their wild
>> imaginations! I'd rather let them in on all my so called "secrets"
>
> You realize that burglars would pay money to have access to that
> data?

Of course. Maybe you are convincing me that some things should be kept
private. However, I think that where we have those lines now is just
silly towards too much privacy.

>> than have them assume that I have secrets that I don't possess in
>> actuality. That's because they have absolute power over everything I
>> really care about, my family. I might request that I have my own
>> little private space for bathing and personal time... but eventually,
>
> Not granted.
>
>> I think I could get over even that. Look at how quickly people on
>> reality TV get used to the cameras and just get on with their lives.
>> We'll ALL be reality TV stars in the future is my prediction.
>
> Please kill me now.

Look, here is the bottom line. If you live long enough, eventually
there will be some part of the future that you REALLY don't like. It
is one reason why so many old people are grumpy about the way things
are now. If you want LONG life, you're going to have to adjust and
give up some (and eventually most) of what you think is important
today.

>> In no way would I give up rights, but I don't see privacy as an
>> absolute right. Then maybe we'll get over this idea that we're not
>> just smart bipedal apes, but rather somehow special.
>
> I think you might have a cordyceps infestation. We need to dump this
> fellow, quick, before he sprouts spores!

Look. You brought up the thing about burglars, right? Well, if the
burglars don't have any privacy either, then they are going to be damn
easy to catch. Maybe burglary will become a thing of the past. I don't
want burglars to know about my habits today because they still have
privacy rights. When they don't, then I don't need privacy rights to
protect myself from them. At least the need is lessened.

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 08:20:38 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 02:20:38 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <1333022374.63992.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <201203241528.q2OFStlk023463@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20120324154627.GL9891@leitl.org>
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 <CAPoR7a4zAHiE-LZSqX4MZ7ZowN7gc5v4H-ATecs+dxFecosW7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <201203241725.q2OHP6Ve010600@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaZishWV7Q=z-vffPWGSvxgC3of_U=sY+=191kS9BU31Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 29, 2012 at 5:59 AM, The Avantguardian
<avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> No. The real answer in the long term is to spread ourselves across so many star systems that NOBODY can kill all of us with weapons of mass destruction. We need?multiple offsite backups of the species or of individuals, it doesn't matter.
>

Well, yeah, that is the ultimate solution in one sense.

> Select individuals have had the power to destroy civilization with the push of a button for over fifty years now. What is it about THOSE people that make them so much more special or trustworthy than you or me? That at the time, someone paid millions to put them into high office to make sure special favors were done in return?
>

Hopefully, and so far, the process keeps complete lunatics from
getting access to those buttons. Should the launch codes be kept
secret? You bet. At least for now. We don't have any way of protecting
ourselves at this point. My assertion that privacy may not last
forever is based on technologies that don't exist now. These
technologies will make privacy a quaint memory, I'm afraid. And while
they will allow the powerful to peer in at the less powerful, the
reverse is likely also going to be true. I don't like the asymmetric
application of privacy any better than today's class warfare. Both are
really bad.

> You ask if privacy is sustainable in?such a world where individuals can wipe out all intelligent life? I ask you is individuality or intelligent life itself sustainable in?such a world?

Maybe not. It would sure answer the question "Why is there nobody out there?"

> And furthermore, why?does a?society of beings so powerful that the lowest amongst them can extinguish them all, insist upon?treating their lowest so shabbily that they would want to extinguish all their fellows?

You are forgetting about mental illness. Though with enough
technology, maybe we can defeat mental illness along with poverty and
the scourge of crazy ass religions. But it won't be easy.

> Have?we learned nothing from?over 5000 years of recorded history??What goes around comes around so I assure you the end of oppression will be the end of fear.
>

Sorry, what historical events lead you to THAT conclusion?

>>Asking it a different way. If everyone in the world had a button, that
>>if pushed would end the world, how long would the world last? Knowing
>>that the answer is "seconds, if that long"... and knowing that
>>individuals will likely obtain such technology some day in the not too
>>distant future... Could privacy survive in such a world? Should
>>privacy be allowed to survive in such a world?
>
> More people have the nuke now then ever. I know how much you loved how special it made America feel for something like 50 years now. I enjoyed it too. But it's time to let it go and come up with the next big thing. America cannot be the goose that lays golden eggs if we obsess over any one egg. The world never will be safe no matter how much freedom or dignity you sacrifice to the government. We just have to learn to cope with risk as we go, rather than using it as an excuse never to leave the cave.
>

You know, I think Ron Paul makes a pretty good argument when he says
"let the Iranians have the bomb." At least it's worth thinking about
seriously.

>>My motto, "Privacy is dead, get over it."
>
> That sounds a little like "Mao won the Cold War" to me.
>
>>If DCFS would install and monitor cameras in every room of my house, I
>>would let them. Why? Because it would protect me from their wild
>>imaginations! I'd rather let them in on all my so called "secrets"
>>than have them assume that I have secrets that I don't possess in
>>actuality. That's because they have absolute power over everything I
>>really care about, my family.
>
> Let no parent come between the state and its future voters. They are
> no longer your children. They are now "children of the sun".

If you think our children belong to us today, then you are living in a
happy dream world. The world I lived in before DCFS came in and
started trying to ruin my life. I have lost 7 of my children to those
bastards having done not one damn thing wrong to those kids. So don't
go trying to tell me that we live in some kind of free country. Those
freedoms are already dead and buried.

> I heard that one before only it was in a different language. So why would you tolerate anybody having absolute power over your family?

Why would the East Germans tolerate the police state? Because it WAS,
and there wasn't a damn thing they could do about it.

> And if you are going to tolerate someone having absolute power over your family, why would you choose a faceless beauracracy? I mean if a person abuses power, you can always guilotine them. When a bureaucracy abuses power, they just lose the paperwork, and you don't even know who to blame.
>

Welcome to my life. You don't CHOOSE this. They choose YOU. You get in
the bureaucrat's sights, and you are toast. I can not live where I
want to live because there are bureaucrats who would make sure I lost
the kids I do have now if I moved back into that jurisdiction. But, if
they knew the truth because they had 24/7 video and audio of my life,
then I would have a chance to fight the bastards.

> I might request that I have my own
>>little private space for bathing and personal time... but eventually,
>>I think I could get over even that. Look at how quickly people on
>>reality TV get used to the cameras and just get on with their lives.
>>We'll ALL be reality TV stars in the future is my prediction.
>
> Yes, we will all be humiliated on television?before the rest of the world so that society can find its one true winner. Until next season of course.
>

Look. You pick your nose... we all masturbate from time to time... we
have weird sexual fantasies and activities... if we all knew that we
all had these weird things that we ALL do... wouldn't it help us to be
more naturally human? I think the bonobos have it right sometimes.

>>In no way would I give up rights, but I don't see privacy as an
>>absolute right. Then maybe we'll get over this idea that we're not
>>just smart bipedal apes, but rather somehow special.
>
> Huh? I quote The Constitution:
>
> "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."
>

OK, you may have me there. My right to privacy from the government is
a right. My privacy from other citizens? Not so sure about that...
Nevertheless, the trend sure seems to be towards less privacy, and I
don't think we'll be able to reverse that trend.

> Are not my?words and my deeds?truly mine? If not, then?why hold me?responsible for them? If so, then why?seize them?and search?them unreasonably without a warrant? Spies are powerful weapons of war. Why does my government make war against me?
>

My government, or at least little parts of it, are at war against me.
And I against them. They know I'm after them, and they fear me. And I
fear them. It's not pretty. War never is. It is an asymmetric war, and
I have few weapons... only that there are a few checks and balances
left in government.

-Kelly



From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 08:26:47 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 09:26:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbZbRN9oFB_QJcPBSdWoppwZJqsRMbqiJnM4grSVmnvzQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a4zAHiE-LZSqX4MZ7ZowN7gc5v4H-ATecs+dxFecosW7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <201203241725.q2OHP6Ve010600@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CALAdGNQggXL-R64g64mwLKGeZgXw=Rjfo0dUYBP-iHggBUoREA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwbtAVMNzqONE--hXciR7AAX3URP_pesFXHBRV5wc8uvWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120325090553.GI9891@leitl.org> <4F70671A.5060600@aleph.se>
 <CAPoR7a4TKNAe6wyGXJcMjG-+7BxX+6usjxkV-Oiy3DE58mr4qA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120327095723.GC17245@leitl.org>
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 <CAPy8RwaQXt9WYtEXr5vwGNVb7jLzf45vRetQe3RLT2sR=N02wg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armhNj+MsEcA7smDxXByXL5Xka_OEqbvxvV7dd9UQTouqSg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 8:55 AM, Kelly Anderson wrote:
<snip>
> Look, here is the bottom line. If you live long enough, eventually
> there will be some part of the future that you REALLY don't like. It
> is one reason why so many old people are grumpy about the way things
> are now. If you want LONG life, you're going to have to adjust and
> give up some (and eventually most) of what you think is important
> today.
>

Disagree.  LONG life gives you time to prepare your life just the way
you want it.
Especially if you don't have the physical and mental failings, aches,
pains and diseases of old age that is the main thing that makes old
folk grumpy.

Every stage of society has fashions, fads, customs, but people don't
have to join in with everything. As just one example, today there are
still people who don't have a mobile phone by choice and feel they
have a better life without one. (Or only have an emergency phone that
is mostly switched off).


> Look. You brought up the thing about burglars, right? Well, if the
> burglars don't have any privacy either, then they are going to be damn
> easy to catch. Maybe burglary will become a thing of the past. I don't
> want burglars to know about my habits today because they still have
> privacy rights. When they don't, then I don't need privacy rights to
> protect myself from them. At least the need is lessened.
>
>


I think Eugen is making the point that privacy at present is not equal
for everyone.
Today there are lambs surrounded by wolves.
Share everything, go with the flow --- makes you into one of the
lambs, ready to be fleeced.

But protecting against wolves takes effort. On a sliding scale, from
simple easy basic steps to setting up as advanced security systems as
you want to spend time on.

Don't try to live in the future too soon! Protect against today's
problems and aim for the future.


BillK


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 08:27:25 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 02:27:25 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <004101cd0dbb$53ac7930$fb056b90$@att.net>
References: <201203241528.q2OFStlk023463@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <20120324154627.GL9891@leitl.org>
 <201203241613.q2OGDuc6013513@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAPoR7a4zAHiE-LZSqX4MZ7ZowN7gc5v4H-ATecs+dxFecosW7g@mail.gmail.com>
 <201203241725.q2OHP6Ve010600@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CALAdGNQggXL-R64g64mwLKGeZgXw=Rjfo0dUYBP-iHggBUoREA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbyvAg7EoiP4f9c1NrL0V5-RFzmA47L_VEVaa3HMtZ5FA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 29, 2012 at 8:50 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Stuart, you had me at "The right of the people..." ?Thanks man.

Yah. Embarrassing to be that wrong. But I don't ask for privacy to
protect me from that level of embarrassment. :-)

> Of course the constitution applies only to what the federal government can
> do to us. ?But they don't care, their concern is only about getting their
> share of tax revenue. ?They don't much care how we get our money, so long as
> they get their cut.

The current Supreme Court decision on Obamacare seems like a kind of
"last stand" for constitutional rights. If they get a 5-4 on this one,
then I fear that our days as a semi-free country are numbered.

-Kelly



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 08:46:36 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 02:46:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhNj+MsEcA7smDxXByXL5Xka_OEqbvxvV7dd9UQTouqSg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a4zAHiE-LZSqX4MZ7ZowN7gc5v4H-ATecs+dxFecosW7g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <20120329085759.GV14482@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaERVo0trFh7YPtqVMpgqFbtg-2hbpCaTJtbMwRZw744w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 2:26 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 8:55 AM, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> <snip>
>> Look, here is the bottom line. If you live long enough, eventually
>> there will be some part of the future that you REALLY don't like. It
>> is one reason why so many old people are grumpy about the way things
>> are now. If you want LONG life, you're going to have to adjust and
>> give up some (and eventually most) of what you think is important
>> today.
>>
>
> Disagree. ?LONG life gives you time to prepare your life just the way
> you want it.

While I would love to live in a world similar to today's world for
hundreds of thousands of years, I am also prepared to accept that I
may beg for death in 100 years if things change too much and in ways
I'm not prepared to deal with. It could easily go either way.

> Especially if you don't have the physical and mental failings, aches,
> pains and diseases of old age that is the main thing that makes old
> folk grumpy.

I know that is a major source of grumpiness... however, things being
different than they used to be is also a major contributor.

> Every stage of society has fashions, fads, customs, but people don't
> have to join in with everything. As just one example, today there are
> still people who don't have a mobile phone by choice and feel they
> have a better life without one. (Or only have an emergency phone that
> is mostly switched off).

I may not be required to have a tongue ring, but that doesn't mean I
can always avoid the Walmart cashier that has one... kwim?

>> Look. You brought up the thing about burglars, right? Well, if the
>> burglars don't have any privacy either, then they are going to be damn
>> easy to catch. Maybe burglary will become a thing of the past. I don't
>> want burglars to know about my habits today because they still have
>> privacy rights. When they don't, then I don't need privacy rights to
>> protect myself from them. At least the need is lessened.
>
> I think Eugen is making the point that privacy at present is not equal
> for everyone.

I think we would agree that there is much about the current world that
is FAR from utopian.

> Today there are lambs surrounded by wolves.
> Share everything, go with the flow --- makes you into one of the
> lambs, ready to be fleeced.

I prefer not to be a lamb. Had a very bad dream about that last night,
which I would prefer to keep private thanks. :-)

> But protecting against wolves takes effort. On a sliding scale, from
> simple easy basic steps to setting up as advanced security systems as
> you want to spend time on.

Yes. There is that. I hate worrying about junk like that, but I have
already set up some certain helpful software. As Spike's experience
shows, just participating in a list like this is enough to get the
ball rolling for people who want to get inside our heads. Isn't that
kind of what we're trying to do though, is get into each other's
heads, or at least the parts they want us to get into.

> Don't try to live in the future too soon! Protect against today's
> problems and aim for the future.

I'm pragmatic. Notice that I'm not posting my social security
number... even though the founder of lifelock did just that.

-Kelly



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 09:16:22 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 03:16:22 -0600
Subject: [ExI] wastefulness, was: RE: shelf life of drugs
In-Reply-To: <006c01cd0dc9$9dfe51d0$d9faf570$@att.net>
References: <004801cd0dbf$7052c680$50f85380$@att.net>
 <201203291611.q2TGBxn3011410@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <006c01cd0dc9$9dfe51d0$d9faf570$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaCYVntLenjeeHWLUBM_5Mq_D9RutfkP_nWq3fWXFE3JQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Mar 29, 2012 at 10:33 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> My point is that our legal system charges taxes and license fees per
> vehicle, as opposed to a more reasonable approach, charge per driver.
> Regardless of how many ape haulers we own, we can only drive one at a time.
> So have two. ?Or more. ?Keep that good old 4x4 for when you need it to visit
> your buddy down the dirt road, have a second light single seat car which you
> use when conditions allow. ?Pay only once for both.

I think that we should pay for roads at the gas pump. Bigger cars that
burn more gas wear the roads out faster. It's the only really fair way
to do it. I don't even mind giving the electric cars a break for a few
years.

-Kelly



From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Apr  1 09:21:10 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 11:21:10 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>

On Sat, Mar 31, 2012 at 11:37:29PM +0200, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> Keep in mind I am not talking about what is going to be possible. It will 

I am only talking about what is feasible. NSA is a pretty conservative
shop, so I don't think they'd be pushing the envelope. They're going to
have several approaches, including running Oracle on a cluster. 

But, if you're pushing the envelope, you can e.g. put up plenty of
low-power SATA on trays with an ARM SoC + mesh (GBit/s Ethernet or
custom), and hook it up via InfiniBand, and fill up several tennis
courts with these.

> be or it will be not. I believe only in shop inventory and numbers. There 
> is exabyte tape library being sold by Oracle and there is about 20Tbps in 

I wouldn't bother with tape libraries with bulk data. Arguably, I wouldn't
bother with tape libraries at all but push to remote rotating spindles.

> transatlantic cables combined, with plans to extend this by maybe 300% 

Nobody is going to fill up that space overnight. If you want to fill up
things quickly, you wouldn't bother with fiber but synchronize shipping
container data centers locally and ship them. You can fit about 24 k 3.5"
disks inside -- 10 PBytes/day is a lot of bandwidth, though the latency
would suck.

> *which are plans*:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_communications_cable
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exabyte
> 
> One exabyte library, which has to be maintained (as you said: energy, 
> housing, but also active checking for errors in data made by bit rot). It 

zfs scrubs fine weekly with consumer drives or monthly with SAS.

> will at best store surv data for 100 thousand heads (based on Anders' 
> estimate of 10TB/year/head which is equivalent to 2Mbps a-v stream, if I 
> am right). Two such libraries if you want to have any significant error 
> protection.

You'd do well enough with raidz2 or raidz3 over mirrored pools 
at disk tray level. Remember these are bulk data. The important hot 
spots are all multiply redundant.
 
> Data transmission from sensors in the field to any kind of storage you 

The most abundant sources of data would be from layer 7 interception in the
telco data centers. This is collected near the edge of the network, so easy to
deal with. 

> want, because you do want to store this data somewhere? It is easy to 
> connect cities with hi-speed net, it is easy to create metropolitan 
> network, but it is not easy to deliver hi speed to every place on the map:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_mile
> 
> The last mile problem remains a problem, no matter if you want to deliver 
> data down to enduser or up from enduser to central hub. There is going to 
> be central hub, either global one or many locals. The problem remains.

You would be running the data mining where the data is, and pool the
results where the analysts are. A smart approach would be to cluster
data spatially and temporally, so that you could limit the query scope
to particular hardware region.


From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Apr  1 09:50:35 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 11:50:35 +0200
Subject: [ExI] wastefulness, was: RE: shelf life of drugs
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaCYVntLenjeeHWLUBM_5Mq_D9RutfkP_nWq3fWXFE3JQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <004801cd0dbf$7052c680$50f85380$@att.net>
 <201203291611.q2TGBxn3011410@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <006c01cd0dc9$9dfe51d0$d9faf570$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwaCYVntLenjeeHWLUBM_5Mq_D9RutfkP_nWq3fWXFE3JQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120401095035.GX14482@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 03:16:22AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> I think that we should pay for roads at the gas pump. Bigger cars that
> burn more gas wear the roads out faster. It's the only really fair way

The wear scales exponentially with mass. This is why ultra-heavy trucks
shouldn't exist.

> to do it. I don't even mind giving the electric cars a break for a few
> years.

The killer argument for EVs is that your carport or your parking lot
is your refuelling station. 


From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Sun Apr  1 10:08:47 2012
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 03:08:47 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
Message-ID: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

All this talk about privacy becoming a thing of the past seems rather silly to me.? Our whole society (and, some people think, even the evolution of our big brains) is dependent on deception and concealing information.  To say that we would 'adapt' to having utterly no privacy, no ability to hide or misdirect, due to technology, is like expecting cats to stop chasing birds if you feed them only carrots.

Forcibly try to take away people's privacy, and they will only value it more, and figure out ways to preserve it.  As surveillance technology becomes more powerful and sophisticated, so will anti-surveillance tech.  

It's just another arms race, like parasites and immune systems (both biological and digital), ads and ad-blockers, spam and anti-spam systems, etc.

The real value of a thread like this is to alert people to the size and nature of the conflict, not to prepare them for an inevitable defeat.

We need more practical advice, like Matthew's* obfuscation strategy, information on how to use things like TOR and personal encryption, and how to achieve deniability, and less rolling over and playing dead. Oh, wait, that's a deception strategy.  OK, less bending over and pulling down of pants.


Ben Zaiboc
(or someone else posting under his name)

*May not be the person's real name



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 13:02:48 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 15:02:48 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>

On 1 April 2012 12:08, Ben Zaiboc <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:

> All this talk about privacy becoming a thing of the past seems rather
> silly to me.  Our whole society (and, some people think, even the evolution
> of our big brains) is dependent on deception and concealing information.
>

Perhaps, and by the increasingly monumental failure in the attempt of doing
so.

What kind of privacy have men, be they chiefs or subjects, ever enjoyed in
history but in the framework of urban life, in some restricted areas,
during the last couple of centuries?

My objection is simply that we should not parochially take for granted or
for the "normal state of things" what has actually been nothing but a very
transient and limited evolutionary stage of our own civilisational model.
And that efforts at least nominally aimed at protecting it invariably end
up in *additional*, not reduced, social control (more laws to be enforced
to the detriment of citizens' liberties).

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sun Apr  1 13:36:00 2012
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sun, 01 Apr 2012 09:36:00 -0400
Subject: [ExI] wastefulness, was: RE: shelf life of drugs
In-Reply-To: <20120401095035.GX14482@leitl.org>
References: <004801cd0dbf$7052c680$50f85380$@att.net>
 <201203291611.q2TGBxn3011410@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <006c01cd0dc9$9dfe51d0$d9faf570$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwaCYVntLenjeeHWLUBM_5Mq_D9RutfkP_nWq3fWXFE3JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120401095035.GX14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <201204011336.q31Da8qE022867@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Eugen wrote:

>The wear scales exponentially with mass. This is why ultra-heavy trucks
>shouldn't exist.

When I lived in Israel, the main road from Tel Aviv to Haifa was at
the end of our driveway. Asphalt on top of a route that has been
used for at least five thousand years. In the first days of the Yom
Kippur War, trucks were used to transport hundreds of tanks up to
the Golan Heights (probably from the Central Command, since
Jordan wisely stayed out of the war).

It was cool watching them go by, but the trucks left ~5" ruts behind
on the northward side of the road. Getting them to the front ASAP
was worth the damage; they took a slower, less destructive way
back when the war was over.


-- David.



From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Sun Apr  1 14:39:01 2012
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 07:39:01 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Health and Nutrition
In-Reply-To: <mailman.249.1333270006.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1333291141.14678.YahooMailClassic@web114417.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

An interesting article from the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, "Origins and evolution of the Western diet: health implications for the 21st century":

http://www.ajcn.org/content/81/2/341.full

If you start getting cross-eyed, skip to the summary.

It's encouraging that mainstream nutritionists are starting to wake up to the idea that the standard western diet is terribly bad for us, and why.


Also:
Have any of you heard of Dave Asprey before?:
http://www.bulletproofexec.com/

Another twist on the palaeolithic diet, but it seems more accessible than most.  
I'm not so sure about the putting of butter into coffee, though!


Ben Zaiboc



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 17:49:36 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 11:49:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] wastefulness, was: RE: shelf life of drugs
In-Reply-To: <20120401095035.GX14482@leitl.org>
References: <004801cd0dbf$7052c680$50f85380$@att.net>
 <201203291611.q2TGBxn3011410@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <006c01cd0dc9$9dfe51d0$d9faf570$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwaCYVntLenjeeHWLUBM_5Mq_D9RutfkP_nWq3fWXFE3JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120401095035.GX14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZJ=vjMprtF=RBNq0XffYHns2My2F8X3vBKm+zsivbacw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 3:50 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 03:16:22AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> I think that we should pay for roads at the gas pump. Bigger cars that
>> burn more gas wear the roads out faster. It's the only really fair way
>
> The wear scales exponentially with mass. This is why ultra-heavy trucks
> shouldn't exist.

Really good point. However, it would destroy the American economy
temporarily, until adjustments (appropriate adjustments) were made.
The entire cost of oil needs to be paid for at the pump including the
cost of the oil wars. It will push America in the direction that it
needs to go. Taxes would need to be reduced to compensate. This would
be "repressive" in the sense that the rich would be unfairly
advantaged compared to where they are now, so something would have to
be done in terms of further reducing taxes on the poor to compensate,
but I feel this is a plan that really ought to be given a try. I think
Eugen is right that some of the cost (the part that goes to actually
repair roads, not to fight wars and buy space, for example) should
have an exponential component for heavy vehicles. I think multi-axel
vehicles already are taxed at a higher rate.

>> to do it. I don't even mind giving the electric cars a break for a few
>> years.
>
> The killer argument for EVs is that your carport or your parking lot
> is your refuelling station.

The killer argument eventually (I hope) will be that with fewer moving
parts they'll actually be cheaper in the long run. Eventually, they'll
have to pay road use tolls as well, of course.

-Kelly


From max at maxmore.com  Sun Apr  1 18:35:27 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 11:35:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Health and Nutrition
In-Reply-To: <1333291141.14678.YahooMailClassic@web114417.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.249.1333270006.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1333291141.14678.YahooMailClassic@web114417.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wXi9auveOGz=X_d7H7V4XPz_cVMkG_OVgEciAKctSVQgA@mail.gmail.com>

Cordain's new book, The Paleo Answer, has much fresh information and plenty
of references. It's a bit repetitive in places (e.g. coming back to the
effects of lectins from the POVs of various foods), but very informative.
It's a convenient place to look into recent studies of paleo diets,
including the only four (so far) direct comparisons of paleo with other
diets, including the Mediterranean and diabetes diets. (Paleo comes out
well in all comparisons).

http://www.amazon.com/The-Paleo-Answer-Weight-Great/dp/1118016084/ref=sr_1_9?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1333305066&sr=1-9

Warning: The Kindle edition is not well produced and looks rushed. While I
now prefer electronic books, I would have preferred to buy this in the old
format. There is no easy way to jump back and forth between the main text
and the references.

--Max


On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 7:39 AM, Ben Zaiboc <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:

> An interesting article from the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition,
> "Origins and evolution of the Western diet: health implications for the
> 21st century":
>
> http://www.ajcn.org/content/81/2/341.full
>
> If you start getting cross-eyed, skip to the summary.
>
> It's encouraging that mainstream nutritionists are starting to wake up to
> the idea that the standard western diet is terribly bad for us, and why.
>
>
> Also:
> Have any of you heard of Dave Asprey before?:
> http://www.bulletproofexec.com/
>
> Another twist on the palaeolithic diet, but it seems more accessible than
> most.
> I'm not so sure about the putting of butter into coffee, though!
>
>
> Ben Zaiboc
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Apr  1 19:27:30 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 21:27:30 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204011823050.10163@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sun, 1 Apr 2012, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> On Sat, Mar 31, 2012 at 11:37:29PM +0200, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> 
> > Keep in mind I am not talking about what is going to be possible. It will 
> 
> I am only talking about what is feasible. NSA is a pretty conservative
> shop, so I don't think they'd be pushing the envelope. They're going to
> have several approaches, including running Oracle on a cluster. 

Actually, I was addressing only idea of total surveillance. That NSA has 
been gathering all kind of info, this I realised long ago. And I am a bit 
indifferent to this, because I am not a gangster, not even a politician or 
banker. Spying on me is waste of resources, but who I am to tell them how 
to spend their money :-). I understand they may be somewhere ahead of us 
mortals, but not necessarily in a "revolutionary ahead" manner.

So, all my number juggling relates only to the idea of doing total 24/7 
surveillance and not some possible data center. If I ever was to do such 
thing myself, I would probably go with enormous tape library for longterm 
storage and one of those hippy supercomputating storage array to fetch 
data from tapes and crunch it, and store the outcomes.

> But, if you're pushing the envelope, you can e.g. put up plenty of
> low-power SATA on trays with an ARM SoC + mesh (GBit/s Ethernet or
> custom), and hook it up via InfiniBand, and fill up several tennis
> courts with these.

You see, I could push the envelope however I wanted, but this does not 
change simple facts:

- total annual production of harddrives is, say 650 million unit

- if you want to store 10TB/year/head you need:

[16]> (defconstant +zeta+ (expt 10L0 21))
+ZETA+

[17]> (defconstant +exa+ (expt 10L0 18))
+EXA+

[18]> (defconstant +peta+ (expt 10L0 15))
+PETA+

[19]> (defconstant +tera+ (expt 10L0 12))
+TERA+

[20]> (defconstant +million+ (* 1000 1000))
+MILLION+

[21]> (defconstant +billion+ (* 1000 +million+))
+BILLION+

[22]> (/ (* 10 +tera+ 8 +billion+) +exa+)
80000.0L0

[23]> (/ (* 10 +tera+ 8 +billion+) +zeta+)
80.0L0

That's 80 ZB every year, and almost yottabyte after ten years. Or, if you 
prefer, this is 80 billion 1TB discs. Or 20 billion of 4TB discs. Or 30 
years of worldwide _official_ harddrive production. Every year. Assuming 
you will want 4TB discs, which will have 4 or 5 platters and so will be 
more prone to mechanical failure than 1-platter/1TB ones. AFAIK.

And if you wanted to go with 1TB/1-platters, this is 123 years of 
harddrive production, which you will have to make and buy every year.

In other words, if you want total surveyance:

- one 3.5'' hard disc measurements is 101.6 mm x 25.4 mm x 146 mm

- how much volume is needed to store 80 billion of 1TB discs?

[28]> (defconstant +millimetre+ 1L-3)

[32]> (let ((hddv (* 1016L-1 +millimetre+ 254L-1 +millimetre+ 146L0 
+millimetre+)) (units1TB (* 10L0 8 +billion+)) ) (* units1TB hddv))

3.0141875199999999995L7 ;; it is this many m^3, 3*10^7 or...

[38]> (let ((hddv (* 1016L-1 +millimetre+ 254L-1 +millimetre+ 146L0 
+millimetre+)) (units1TB (* 10L0 8 +billion+)) ) (exp (/ (log (* units1TB 
hddv)) 3)))

311.21230183789613968L0 ;; it means a cube having 311m size or...

[39]> (/ 311.212 24)

12.967167

It means you need to fill a cube that is 13 times longer side of tennis 
court in every direction. That's a huge bit more than just a few courts.

For perspective, it means you need to build equivalent of

[41]> (/ 3L7 2.5L6)

12.0L0

So, twelve Great Piramids of Giza, filled with discs or similar data 
storage form factor. Every year. Plus some cabling and power, and some 
staff to keep it running.

Or, if you wanted to go flat, you would need

[44]> (* 311.212 (expt 0.311212 2))

30.14179

So, 30km^2 of land, 1/3 of Manhattan Island every year.

In my previous "calculatron email" I have used units based on power of 2 
instead of 10. The difference is that, for example, 1 zebibyte = 1 ZiB = 
2^70 =~ 1.2*10^21 = 1.2 ZB (zettabyte). This changes numbers a bit but I 
don't think there is any significant difference. In this email, I decided 
to go with SI units and name 2-based units explicitly, if I need this.

> > be or it will be not. I believe only in shop inventory and numbers. There 
> > is exabyte tape library being sold by Oracle and there is about 20Tbps in 
> 
> I wouldn't bother with tape libraries with bulk data. Arguably, I wouldn't
> bother with tape libraries at all but push to remote rotating spindles.

The problem with this is spindles rotate and eat power even when one does 
not need them. Unless you implement aggressive power management, in which 
case they will still eat more than resting tapes.

> > transatlantic cables combined, with plans to extend this by maybe 300% 
> 
> Nobody is going to fill up that space overnight. If you want to fill up
> things quickly, you wouldn't bother with fiber but synchronize shipping
> container data centers locally and ship them. You can fit about 24 k 3.5"
> disks inside -- 10 PBytes/day is a lot of bandwidth, though the latency
> would suck.

Yes. But most of the time you would just store this data and never have 
any need to go back to it. In such case, bad latency is ok, I think.

> > *which are plans*:
> > 
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_communications_cable
> > 
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exabyte
> > 
> > One exabyte library, which has to be maintained (as you said: energy, 
> > housing, but also active checking for errors in data made by bit rot). It 
> 
> zfs scrubs fine weekly with consumer drives or monthly with SAS.

Maybe it does, but does it help in case of mechanical failure? With 80 
billion units of anything, mechanical fail is not a possibility but a 
certainty.

> > will at best store surv data for 100 thousand heads (based on Anders' 
> > estimate of 10TB/year/head which is equivalent to 2Mbps a-v stream, if I 
> > am right). Two such libraries if you want to have any significant error 
> > protection.
> 
> You'd do well enough with raidz2 or raidz3 over mirrored pools 
> at disk tray level. Remember these are bulk data. The important hot 
> spots are all multiply redundant.

The idea is, one needs multiple the volume of storage to be safer (but 
never safe). We seem to agree here.

> > Data transmission from sensors in the field to any kind of storage you 
> 
> The most abundant sources of data would be from layer 7 interception in the
> telco data centers. This is collected near the edge of the network, so easy to
> deal with. 

In the case of tot-sur scenario, one is transmitting 2Mbps from every 
sensor. One spies on physical human bodies, not on their 
tele-communications (which I think is being spied nowadays just fine with 
existing means).

> > want, because you do want to store this data somewhere? It is easy to 
> > connect cities with hi-speed net, it is easy to create metropolitan 
> > network, but it is not easy to deliver hi speed to every place on the map:
> > 
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_mile
> > 
> > The last mile problem remains a problem, no matter if you want to deliver 
> > data down to enduser or up from enduser to central hub. There is going to 
> > be central hub, either global one or many locals. The problem remains.
> 
> You would be running the data mining where the data is, and pool the 
> results where the analysts are. A smart approach would be to cluster 
> data spatially and temporally, so that you could limit the query scope 
> to particular hardware region. 

This spatial-temporal clustering is very nice idea. However, I am afraid 
you would end up with multitude of highly sophisticated nodes scattered on 
the face of Earth. And you would have to go around repairing failing 
equipment all the time, thus ending one problem gives rise to another. And 
it is possible you would also betray location of nodes to local mobs.

But, actually, the whole point of mine is to illustrate something: I don't 
know if tot-sur is feasible (I would have to know classified tech for 
this) but trying to do it with current tech would have been very 
frustrating, IMHO. And I don't think we are in the area of "double every 
year", not anymore. So I guesstimate, ten years from now tech will not 
improve by factor of 1000, but I can believe it may improve by factor of 
100. However, if I had to bet my own money, I would bet it would be better 
than factor of 50 but not much over that. And even this may prove to be 
overly optimistic, you might want to see this:

[57]> (let ((years 10) (inum 20)) (dotimes (i inum) (let ((x (+ 1 (/ (+ i 
1.0) inum)))) (format t "~A years by ~A growth: ~A~%" years x (expt x 
years)))))

10 years by 1.05 growth: 1.6288936
10 years by 1.1 growth: 2.593743
10 years by 1.15 growth: 4.045558
10 years by 1.2 growth: 6.1917367
10 years by 1.25 growth: 9.313226
10 years by 1.3 growth: 13.785842
10 years by 1.35 growth: 20.106564
10 years by 1.4 growth: 28.925459
10 years by 1.45 growth: 41.08471
10 years by 1.5 growth: 57.66504
10 years by 1.55 growth: 80.04182
10 years by 1.6 growth: 109.9512
10 years by 1.65 growth: 149.56822
10 years by 1.7 growth: 201.59943
10 years by 1.75 growth: 269.3894
10 years by 1.8 growth: 357.0466
10 years by 1.85 growth: 469.58838
10 years by 1.9 growth: 613.1065
10 years by 1.95 growth: 794.9618
10 years by 2.0 growth: 1024.0

Sorry for the clumsy formatting of the above.

However, 50 or even 100-times improvement merely brings us on the edge of 
"technically feasible", but nowwhere near "effortlessly feasible", so even 
after 10 years, doing this will mean great expenditure and probably 
necessity to build whole parallel industries dedicated only to this one 
thing. And there are quite a few things that need to improve by a factor 
of 100+. But I can smell that improvement is actually slowing down. Of 
course there are many promising breakthroughs in the labs, and it will 
take years to see in the shop what we read about today.

Translating this to the speak of hard drives, I think I will be able to 
buy 10TB/1-platter disc, maybe even 20TB/1-platter, in 2022, but I don't 
count very much on 1PB or even 60TB discs (even thou they are "promised" 
by some web news). Sorry. But I would like to be wrong, you can be sure of 
it.

If we extend window to twenty years, this is probably very different 
story. Twenty years from now, I might be delighted by a prospect of being 
constantly watched over. Who knows. In twenty years, tech might improve 
even by factor of 150 times, speed of improvement still slowing down, 
however. I didn't calculate so I may be off by a digit, but I don't think 
I am wrong on magnitude.

If you have better numbers, I will be happy to see them. Really.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Apr  1 21:25:35 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 23:25:35 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204011823050.10163@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204011823050.10163@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204012315570.10163@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sun, 1 Apr 2012, Tomasz Rola wrote:

[...]
> - one 3.5'' hard disc measurements is 101.6 mm x 25.4 mm x 146 mm
> 
[...]
> [44]> (* 311.212 (expt 0.311212 2))
> 
> 30.14179
> 
> So, 30km^2 of land, 1/3 of Manhattan Island every year.

Aha! I have erred! High time it was. All those numbers and me, and no 
error, highly unlikely.

[60]> (/ (let ((hddarea (* 1016L-1 +millimetre+ 146L0 +millimetre+)) 
(units1TB (* 10L0 8 +billion+)) ) (* units1TB hddarea)) 1L6)

1186.688L0

So, if we lay the harddrives one by another, like we usually put them into 
computers (i.e. flat), they would cover 1186 square kilometers. 
Unbelievable. I wonder if I made it this time :-).

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 22:30:24 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 16:30:24 -0600
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1959/1

Robert Bigelow, founder of Bigelow Aerospace, believes that China is
secretly preparing, or at least positioning themselves to not only go
to the moon, which is publicly acknowledged by the Chinese, but also
that they will withdraw from the 1967 space treaty (Section 16 allows
them to do so with one year notice) and claim real estate on the moon
through the same centuries old processes that has been used to claim
land here on earth.

Even if they aren't planning on doing so at this point, they are
making moves that will lead them to being able to do so. The
temptation for them to do it eventually may be too great for them to
ignore.

I (Kelly) think that they may use their financial power over the west
to force the issue in a manner similar to the Louisiana Purchase.
Thomas Jefferson took advantage of the screwed up French internal
affairs in the early 1800s, and bought much of the USA for $7 million
dollars. Will the Chinese offer us debt forgiveness in exchange for
the moon? I always figured they would end up with California (somewhat
tongue in cheek) but the moon is a real possibility. Our economic
dependence upon China both for goods and debt service sets the US up
to not being able to stop the Chinese should they attempt to do this.

The potential value of the moon is something close to
$1,000,000,000,000,000 (Quadrillion) according to Bigelow.

The good news, if there is any in this, is that if China claims the
moon, it may prompt us to get off our asses and claim Mars, if we
still have any economic ability remaining at that point. Mars is
likely worth many times the value of the moon. Will we see a replay of
Sputnik kick the American people into action?

I don't remember discussing this here, maybe before I was here... but
it's a big deal that we should consider on this list.

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 22:55:53 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 16:55:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/1 Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com>:
> On 1 April 2012 12:08, Ben Zaiboc <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:
>> All this talk about privacy becoming a thing of the past seems rather
>> silly to me.? Our whole society (and, some people think, even the evolution
>> of our big brains) is dependent on deception and concealing information.
>
> Perhaps, and by the increasingly monumental failure in the attempt of doing
> so.

Yes, it is an arms race. But, like the war on drugs, is it a fight
worth fighting? Yes, drugs are bad. Yes, loss of privacy is bad. But
is fighting against it worth the cost? Will it still be perceived as
worth the cost by the next generation? Those are the interesting
questions.

When we are no longer the most intelligent and important species on
the planet, our privacy will not be any more important than that of a
gorilla in the zoo. The privacy of the new big dogs will likely still
be important.

Any technology for encryption only slows the other side down. When you
encrypt something, you aren't hiding it forever, just until the
technology exists to decrypt it. And it always will. So think of it
like they rate safes. Some safes are rated for 5 minutes, others for
ten hours, big ones at the bank for a few days. Nothing can stop you
when you are determined, only slow you down. So if you have something
you want kept secret forever, then you had better not put it into
electronic form, talk over the phone about it, or anything. Just keep
it to yourself. Always. Consistently. But this is not the normal way
we think of things.

-Kelly



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sun Apr  1 23:40:04 2012
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sun, 01 Apr 2012 19:40:04 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <201204012340.q31NeCfS016506@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Eugen wrote:

>I am only talking about what is feasible. NSA is a pretty conservative
>shop, so I don't think they'd be pushing the envelope. They're going to
>have several approaches, including running Oracle on a cluster.
         :
>I wouldn't bother with tape libraries with bulk data. Arguably, I wouldn't
>bother with tape libraries at all but push to remote rotating spindles.

Tape doesn't require energy sitting on a rack, but it does have to
be exercised or data will be lost. Our practice when I was at Livermore
was to move the data to a new tape once a year. And it's useless for
analysis sitting on a rack.

No one has particularly mentioned the world of bigdata.

(Some of you know all this. Some of you don't. So we're all on a
similar page: )

There are an assortment of projects about, some in heavy production
use, to build massive databases and file systems out of commodity
hard disks, with the expectation that at any time something will be
broken.

Google File System keeps files in 64 MB chunks, spread across a
server cluster so that there are at least three copies of each. Individual
files are commonly over 1 GB. Google has been using this for about a
decade. They won't say precisely how much is in it, but it's admitted to
be at least 50,000 servers with tens of petabytes (PB) in all. There are
rumors it's much larger than that.

Then they built Bigtable on top of the file system. Many internal projects
are over 1 TB; at least one of them is over 1 PB.

The Apache Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) is an open source
copy of the Google File System. Facebook uses it, and announced in
July they had 30 PB of data in it.

Other projects are similar in scope. Amazon isn't saying what the design
or capacity of S3 is, but they do admit to hosting about a trillion data
objects, each of which could be up to 5 TB. IBM's GPFS has been
tested up to 4 PB.

Given the need to redundantly store data against equipment failure,
state-of-the-art commercial sites today can handle about a thousand
person-years at Anders' figure of 10 TB/year. Facebook could handle
about fifteen people's lifetime surveillance with their current capacity.


-- David.



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 03:25:54 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 21:25:54 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
References: <201203172251.q2HMphhn024879@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZa6Wnt7f7M-uk_isvUUKWKyjt78BB1Hr7d9yvkjLNkKQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 3:21 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> I am only talking about what is feasible. NSA is a pretty conservative
> shop, so I don't think they'd be pushing the envelope.

I'm honestly a little confused by this statement Eugen... The NSA
employs the top graduates in mathematics, computer science and
cryptography. They likely have the most advanced super computers in
the world.
http://www.ltionline.com/news/nsa-to-use-latest-supercomputing-capabilities-to-combat-threats-to-u-s/

They are rumored to build their own hardware when the occasion
warrants. They have one of, if not the largest database on the planet.
They almost certainly have the best decryption software. They have
leading edge technology to analyze billions of satellite photographs
from the best spy satellites out there, taking pictures with less than
6 inches of resolution (some say much less). If that's not leading
edge, I don't know what is.

So how is it that you can say they are "conservative" and not "pushing
the envelope"? It just seems like a rather outlandish claim...

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 03:33:23 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 21:33:23 -0600
Subject: [ExI] experiment regarding ethical behaviors vs status
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy2-vgmKNKbOWeF1EkVnp7k1X1Msjq=9JGqHLgvNU_0dsA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000001cd0b65$002e7720$008b6560$@att.net>
 <4F70EABB.5050708@aleph.se>
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 <CAPy8Rwa2-McMVVe9H+E2uXXg0wCdZwnv-siYfXj5KpGXo=VtCg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGSKFy2-vgmKNKbOWeF1EkVnp7k1X1Msjq=9JGqHLgvNU_0dsA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaYZ2cACFw8CzfrwUr+prQfSrbAxz7ukQv==ZNMjk9R_g@mail.gmail.com>

2012/3/27 John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>:
> I really enjoyed reading The Millionaire Mind and The Millionaire Next Door,
> which strongly supported how being able to defer gratification, save &
> invest?money, not get divorced, buy used, and?live relatively simply, are
> all key factors to becoming wealthy.

Don't forget the experiment they did on 4 year olds where if they
could wait a few minutes before eating a piece of candy they got two
pieces... and doing a long term study, they found that those who could
wait the few minutes to get the two pieces of candy did overwhelmingly
better in life. Fascinating study, heard about it in a TED talk, I
think.

> Kelly Anderson:
>> As both a rich person and as a poor person, I always buy used. I
>> always pay cash. That's because I'm smart, and not stuck on the status
>> issue. Then again, maybe if I had a better car in college, I would
>> have attracted a saner girl, and that would have helped an awful
>> lot... LOL...
>
> Hmmm....? I knew of a guy in college who drove an extremely expensive luxury
> car, and women would routinely leave notes on it, giving their names and
> digits, with a message that he should call them up and arrange a date! lol
> But were these quality gals?? And in another instance, an ex-gf's mother
> married her husband in college,?because he promised her that he was going
> places and would eventually become rich!? Well, he did get a PhD in
> economics, but never really became wealthy (just borderline upper
> middleclass), and she has spent the past forty years years making his life
> highly unpleasant, in part because of his "broken" promise...

Well, if there is anything that I truly KNOW, it is that I have not
had a stellar record in choosing good women to marry. I'm an expert at
picking out REAL WINNERS... let me tell you. So, while I don't know if
a sexy car would have changed anything, if it was just a random throw
of the dice different, it might have worked out quite differently. Of
course, then I would have probably been a Mormon bishop by now... LOL.

-Kelly



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Apr  2 06:31:20 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 08:31:20 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 04:30:24PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> I don't remember discussing this here, maybe before I was here... but
> it's a big deal that we should consider on this list.

There's the only way to claim land: ability to defend it. I don't
see how can any state attempt to claim the whole of the Moon, if anything,
it would be some strategic locations (area at the poles, some mineral
deposits, etc).

I don't see how US in a position to barter away something that isn't 
theirs.

A kind of a testing ground is Antarctica. If mining moves there and 
somebody contests the 1959 treaty then we'll likely see the same pattern
on the Moon.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Apr  2 06:52:54 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 08:52:54 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120402065254.GH14482@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 04:55:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> Yes, it is an arms race. But, like the war on drugs, is it a fight

So far, the situation wouldn't even exist if people would pick up
the arms and munitions laying on the very ground before them.

> worth fighting? Yes, drugs are bad. Yes, loss of privacy is bad. But

I think you must be on drugs in order to equate the war on (some)
drugs with the desire to protect one's privacy and the right to
be anonymous in some transactions. Like the fucking vote, you know.

> is fighting against it worth the cost? Will it still be perceived as

*Which cost*? The cost of your freedom?

> worth the cost by the next generation? Those are the interesting
> questions.

Yes, these are extremely interesting questions. And especially,
the people who hold them. Very interesting. In the clinical sense.
 
> When we are no longer the most intelligent and important species on
> the planet, our privacy will not be any more important than that of a
> gorilla in the zoo. The privacy of the new big dogs will likely still

Do you really want to be that gorilla? I mean, right now? You're certainly
awfully accepting of being locked up in a panopticon. I hear lots of
municipalities run for-profit prisons. As in forced inmate labor. 
It would be very easy to get in there, just get rid of your privacy.
The average US American commits some 3 felonies a day.

> be important.
> 
> Any technology for encryption only slows the other side down. When you

No offense, but you seem to have little clue about cryptography, especially
the economics of it.

> encrypt something, you aren't hiding it forever, just until the
> technology exists to decrypt it. And it always will. So think of it

So why don't they just store the entire Internet traffic, you think?

> like they rate safes. Some safes are rated for 5 minutes, others for

Try 15-20 years. In case of one-time pads, infinity.

> ten hours, big ones at the bank for a few days. Nothing can stop you
> when you are determined, only slow you down. So if you have something
> you want kept secret forever, then you had better not put it into
> electronic form, talk over the phone about it, or anything. Just keep

So why do politicians use crypto phones, you think?

> it to yourself. Always. Consistently. But this is not the normal way
> we think of things.




From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 07:32:30 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 00:32:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 11:31 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 04:30:24PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>> I don't remember discussing this here, maybe before I was here... but
>> it's a big deal that we should consider on this list.
>
> There's the only way to claim land: ability to defend it. I don't
> see how can any state attempt to claim the whole of the Moon, if anything,
> it would be some strategic locations (area at the poles, some mineral
> deposits, etc).

Set up guns.  (Railguns, possibly.)  Shoot anything that gets too close.
As expensive as it is to send things up now, requiring armor - or
powerful enough engines to dodge - would make it far more expensive.
If you claim the entire Moon, you don't have to worry about whether
anything incoming is going to land in your part or not.


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 09:29:14 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 10:29:14 +0100
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjULzqVO_fJiH7Zim6y=jKggN73=N4fFKJLmjQ7Y0trxg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Adrian Tymes  wrote:
> Set up guns. ?(Railguns, possibly.) ?Shoot anything that gets too close.
> As expensive as it is to send things up now, requiring armor - or
> powerful enough engines to dodge - would make it far more expensive.
> If you claim the entire Moon, you don't have to worry about whether
> anything incoming is going to land in your part or not.
>


Heh!  :}
That only works if you are self-supporting and live on the moon and
don't have any assets elsewhere that can be attacked.

Good ploy for the Pirate Party though.


BillK



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 13:08:29 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 15:08:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 April 2012 00:55, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

> Yes, it is an arms race. But, like the war on drugs, is it a fight
> worth fighting? Yes, drugs are bad. Yes, loss of privacy is bad. But
> is fighting against it worth the cost? Will it still be perceived as
> worth the cost by the next generation? Those are the interesting
> questions.
>

Do not take me wrong. I am more than happy with any *practical* measures
aimed at protecting one's secrets, and/or any non-secret data or
communication to avoid red-flagging secret ones, even though I suspect that
technology is going shift the balance away from the period of relative
privacy we enjoyed in the last couple of centuries (much less so since
WWII, for that matter).

What is OTOH detrimental to civil liberties and political change is giving
to governments more powers, more money, more enforcement tools, more rights
of inspection, more opportunities for blackmail, to... prevent privacy
breaches.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  2 15:35:04 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 08:35:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again:  was RE:  The silent PV revolution
Message-ID: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>


>...From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
...

>...Do you think after the road is glass-smooth there will be any issue
keeping the cars in the lane, especially during wet/winter conditions?...

Glass smooth was  a bad choice of words on my part.  The surface finish is
the same as we have now on new pavement, still gravel in a tar matrix.  What
I meant was to provide a smoother lane by staing on top of any flaws in
pavement by frequent resurfacing to accommodate smaller diameter wheels.

Even this may be unnecessary.  Yesterday I was at the San Jose Tech Museum.
They have a new display about high efficiency ape haulers.  One of their
ideas is a three wheeled single seater, two wheels forward, one aft.  It
still used standard mass production tires, so if we accept the weight
penalty and rolling drag penalty of those wide tires, then current standard
road surfaces would still work.

Regarding Mikes point about bobsled courses, I have a notion that we would
put the low speed lane on the right, with a wall on the pokey-man's left but
none to his right.  It would take most of the space we currently think of as
the break-down lane, however we could arrange a way to still have a
breakdown lane, to the right of the pokey-lane.  The divider wall would need
to be intermittent, with a space about ten paces in length every 100 paces.
That way if some silly prole manages to run her Detroit out of fuel, she
could still coast to a gap, cross the slow lane and get over to the
breakdown space.  It isn't an ideal solution, but it has an advantage of not
requiring any new pavement.

Another alternative is to take the paved surfaces currently being converted
from carpool to toll lanes, use that for low-speed lanes.  I am imagining a
series of overpasses at each freeway exit which lift the low-weight narrow
vehicles over the exiting and entering high-speed traffic.  That would also
allow the use of bicycles on the freeways and autobahns of the world.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 16:24:53 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 17:24:53 +0100
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
References: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhUvzdwDafzp0GUnzsOWh8EZiHv1m9mSE=E6hfbGNi0wQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 4:35 PM, spike wrote:
> Even this may be unnecessary. ?Yesterday I was at the San Jose Tech Museum.
> They have a new display about high efficiency ape haulers. ?One of their
> ideas is a three wheeled single seater, two wheels forward, one aft. ?It
> still used standard mass production tires, so if we accept the weight
> penalty and rolling drag penalty of those wide tires, then current standard
> road surfaces would still work.
>
> Another alternative is to take the paved surfaces currently being converted
> from carpool to toll lanes, use that for low-speed lanes. ?I am imagining a
> series of overpasses at each freeway exit which lift the low-weight narrow
> vehicles over the exiting and entering high-speed traffic. ?That would also
> allow the use of bicycles on the freeways and autobahns of the world.
>
>


Or alternatively you could have your three-wheeler car and make it fly as well!!

<http://pal-v.com/>

The PAL-V ONE is a two seat hybrid car and gyroplane: a personal air
and land vehicle. What makes the PAL-V ONE attractive is the
convenience of fully integrated door-to-door transportation.

On the ground this slim, aerodynamic, 3-wheeled vehicle has the
comfort of a car with the agility of a motorcycle thanks to its
patented, cutting-edge, ?tilting? system. The single rotor and
propeller are unfolded to make the PAL-V ONE ready to fly.

The PAL-V ONE has a very short take off and landing capability, making
it possible to land practically anywhere. When not using controlled
airspace, you can take off without filing a flight plan. Flying a
PAL-V is like a standard gyrocopter. It is quieter than helicopters
due to the slower rotation of the main rotor. It takes off and lands
with low speed, cannot stall, and is very easy to control. The
gyroplane technology means that it can be steered and landed safely
even if the engine fails, because the rotor keeps auto rotating.
-----------

They have just completed flight tests - see press release.


BillK



From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 16:29:20 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 09:29:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjULzqVO_fJiH7Zim6y=jKggN73=N4fFKJLmjQ7Y0trxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjULzqVO_fJiH7Zim6y=jKggN73=N4fFKJLmjQ7Y0trxg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ6Q1oh=kT-XTVehUfgQ=LwteLPOdsaQOe2oft4yK43AA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 2:29 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Adrian Tymes ?wrote:
>> Set up guns. ?(Railguns, possibly.) ?Shoot anything that gets too close.
>> As expensive as it is to send things up now, requiring armor - or
>> powerful enough engines to dodge - would make it far more expensive.
>> If you claim the entire Moon, you don't have to worry about whether
>> anything incoming is going to land in your part or not.
>
> Heh! ?:}
> That only works if you are self-supporting and live on the moon and
> don't have any assets elsewhere that can be attacked.

Or if your assets elsewhere are sufficiently defended, as is the case
with China, and your lunar guards can distinguish desirable incomings
from undesirable.  (Which isn't hard: they can see where on the
Earth things launch from - or at least, China can time its Moon-bound
launches so they're visible to the Moon , so just classify anything that
does not launch from China as undesirable.)



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 16:36:59 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 10:36:59 -0600
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbVxYpQ63SzEDxcfAx-Coz+BFJDM8QMkHB10eP6ae0A3A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 12:31 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 04:30:24PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>> I don't remember discussing this here, maybe before I was here... but
>> it's a big deal that we should consider on this list.
>
> There's the only way to claim land: ability to defend it.

You don't see the third way... China won't need to defend it if the US
is not in a position to function independently of China. Are we going
to go to war to defend our right to the moon? Are we going to risk not
having Chinese goods on our shelves? That seems like a difficult
political play. For one thing, we would lose short of firing off our
nukes and everyone looses then. Short of going to war, what are we
going to do? Stop buying Chinese goods? Unlikely. By 2025, we'll be
further in debt to China, they'll have a bigger cash reserve than they
do today. Their population will be larger and much more educated than
ours. We will have no way to stop them. The international court system
might find against China, but what would they do? What remedy would
there be?

If you think Treaties protect you, you might want to take a quick look
at US history with regards to Native Americans... Just saying...

> I don't
> see how can any state attempt to claim the whole of the Moon, if anything,
> it would be some strategic locations (area at the poles, some mineral
> deposits, etc).

I'm sure they will begin by claiming a portion, but if we don't object
to that, they'll just claim the whole thing. If we do object to it,
they will probably still claim the whole thing. China is one of the
few nations on earth that could stand entirely on its own even if
there were a world wide embargo against them... there would be a
little pain, but it would hurt the rest of us just as much as it would
hurt them.

The surface area of the moon is equivalent to the land mass of North
and South America put together. That's a LOT of real estate. It's
worth a Quadrillion dollars for heck sake!

> I don't see how US in a position to barter away something that isn't
> theirs.

All we have to barter is OUR claim to the moon. If China claims the
moon, and the US gives up it's claim to it, then who will step up and
say, "Hey, part of that should be ours!"????

> A kind of a testing ground is Antarctica. If mining moves there and
> somebody contests the 1959 treaty then we'll likely see the same pattern
> on the Moon.

I am not intimately familiar with the Antarctic treaty, but one huge
difference is that China is not even a signatory to that treaty.

Here's the Antarctic Treaty:
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_antarctica/geopolitical/treaty/update_1959.php

And the Space Treaty:
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/STSPACE11E.pdf

By the way, the United States (and everyone else) has violated
"Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space" a
number of times by launching secret spy satellites.

Article XVI (Of the Space Treaty)
Any State Party to the Treaty may give notice of its withdrawal from
the Treaty one year after its entry into force by written notification
to the Depositary Governments. Such withdrawal shall take effect one
year from the date of receipt of this notification.

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 16:42:08 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 10:42:08 -0600
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ6Q1oh=kT-XTVehUfgQ=LwteLPOdsaQOe2oft4yK43AA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjULzqVO_fJiH7Zim6y=jKggN73=N4fFKJLmjQ7Y0trxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ6Q1oh=kT-XTVehUfgQ=LwteLPOdsaQOe2oft4yK43AA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaLih68ydO-7NDg7zj3uP8K-X4iymoA4Nj6_DFTgNCq1A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 10:29 AM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 2:29 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Adrian Tymes ?wrote:

> Or if your assets elsewhere are sufficiently defended, as is the case
> with China, and your lunar guards can distinguish desirable incomings
> from undesirable. ?(Which isn't hard: they can see where on the
> Earth things launch from - or at least, China can time its Moon-bound
> launches so they're visible to the Moon , so just classify anything that
> does not launch from China as undesirable.)

I'm going to go out on a limb here and actually predict that China
will claim the moon by 2030... Anyone want to place a bet with Long
Now? I just don't see any way to stop them, and no reason for them not
to want to do so.

As for China going an mining in Antarctica, I don't know enough to say
there... However, Chinese fishermen troll the seven seas... sometimes
venturing into territorial waters of others... I'm just saying a
billion mouths is a LOT to feed.

-Kelly



From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 18:27:01 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 12:27:01 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
Message-ID: <CAMd8APzSj1fWNugrK=d2OdYU0Uj_CqAMx_NYhiyDLJj4MSRTMA@mail.gmail.com>

Hello,

My latest animation The Programmer is full of binary code and questionable
creators - it's the stuff that life is made of, maybe...

http://vimeo.com/37152806

If you don't want to read the spoiler below the video before you watch it,
click the full screen icon to the right.

Kind regards,
Gina "Nanogirl" Miller
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From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Sun Apr  1 21:37:29 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 15:37:29 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Test
Message-ID: <CAMd8APxarXtcCsF6N66214dQzB+hudOFOBPhoL07qEXo-8sL-Q@mail.gmail.com>


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From cvanderwall14 at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 02:49:30 2012
From: cvanderwall14 at gmail.com (Christian Vanderwall)
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2012 19:49:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI]  Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
Message-ID: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>

Very cool article about transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and
its possible applications and moral consequences written by Sally Adee, a woman
who has actually tried it.

"they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the
current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've
found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide
range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship."


http://theweek.com/article/index/226196/how-electrical-brain-stimulation-can-change-the-way-we-think/1

-- Christian
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From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 15:52:19 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 09:52:19 -0600
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
References: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAMd8APyk5g_=xzWjbnRatw8j3DghmGJz0EuMCDiUDvwrnS_5ig@mail.gmail.com>

Test

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 9:35 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >...From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike
> Dougherty
> ...
>
> >...Do you think after the road is glass-smooth there will be any issue
> keeping the cars in the lane, especially during wet/winter conditions?...
>
> Glass smooth was  a bad choice of words on my part.  The surface finish is
> the same as we have now on new pavement, still gravel in a tar matrix.
>  What
> I meant was to provide a smoother lane by staing on top of any flaws in
> pavement by frequent resurfacing to accommodate smaller diameter wheels.
>
> Even this may be unnecessary.  Yesterday I was at the San Jose Tech Museum.
> They have a new display about high efficiency ape haulers.  One of their
> ideas is a three wheeled single seater, two wheels forward, one aft.  It
> still used standard mass production tires, so if we accept the weight
> penalty and rolling drag penalty of those wide tires, then current standard
> road surfaces would still work.
>
> Regarding Mikes point about bobsled courses, I have a notion that we would
> put the low speed lane on the right, with a wall on the pokey-man's left
> but
> none to his right.  It would take most of the space we currently think of
> as
> the break-down lane, however we could arrange a way to still have a
> breakdown lane, to the right of the pokey-lane.  The divider wall would
> need
> to be intermittent, with a space about ten paces in length every 100 paces.
> That way if some silly prole manages to run her Detroit out of fuel, she
> could still coast to a gap, cross the slow lane and get over to the
> breakdown space.  It isn't an ideal solution, but it has an advantage of
> not
> requiring any new pavement.
>
> Another alternative is to take the paved surfaces currently being converted
> from carpool to toll lanes, use that for low-speed lanes.  I am imagining a
> series of overpasses at each freeway exit which lift the low-weight narrow
> vehicles over the exiting and entering high-speed traffic.  That would also
> allow the use of bicycles on the freeways and autobahns of the world.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  2 17:04:00 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 10:04:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] gina's test post: was RE: ape haulers again: was RE: The
	silent PV revolution
Message-ID: <00c201cd10f2$99c07770$cd416650$@att.net>

 

Gina's baaaaack!

 

spike

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Gina Miller
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2012 8:52 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution

 

Test

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 9:35 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

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From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 17:39:04 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 11:39:04 -0600
Subject: [ExI] gina's test post: was RE: ape haulers again: was RE: The
 silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <00c201cd10f2$99c07770$cd416650$@att.net>
References: <00c201cd10f2$99c07770$cd416650$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAMd8APybzEhR1eJT6NsJTFWRTbEZkHU6s3aBRePezZyOnrqnXg@mail.gmail.com>

Thanks Spike. Glad to be back!

Gina "Nanogirl" Miller

2012/4/2 spike <spike66 at att.net>

> ** **
>
> Gina?s baaaaack!****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:
> extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *Gina Miller
> *Sent:* Monday, April 02, 2012 8:52 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution**
> **
>
> ** **
>
> Test****
>
> On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 9:35 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:****
>
> ** **
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 17:41:24 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 11:41:24 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
Message-ID: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>

Hello,

My latest animation "The Programmer" is full of binary code and
questionable creators - it's the stuff that life is made of, maybe...

If you don't want to read the spoiler below the video before you watch it,
click the full screen icon to the right.

http://vimeo.com/37152806

Kind regards,
Gina "Nanogirl" Miller
www.nanogirl.com
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 17:14:24 2012
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 12:14:24 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfG8Rvap-si0Dps1BB11eA73d46HuatpHx=ekLqATRuzA@mail.gmail.com>

Hi Christian,
This is an interesting coincidence because I just finished to attend a
session of tDCS at the Cognitive Neuroscience Society conference in
Chicago. This topic is very interesting to me. Most talks indeed talked
about improvement in performance but the improvement is more something like
15-20 % than 100 % that you mentioned.
I'm not aware of any work that demonstrate such huge effect.
Giovanni


On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM, Christian Vanderwall <
cvanderwall14 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Very cool article about transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS)
> and its possible applications and moral consequences written by Sally
> Adee, a woman who has actually tried it.
>
> "they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the
> current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've
> found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide
> range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship."
>
>
>
> http://theweek.com/article/index/226196/how-electrical-brain-stimulation-can-change-the-way-we-think/1
>
> -- Christian
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From kanzure at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 18:12:26 2012
From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 13:12:26 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CABaSBax0rck5udPykSVzw-+C57F+3ZRiN6JXwL=dg9ZGbcAk8g@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/1 Christian Vanderwall <cvanderwall14 at gmail.com>

> Very cool article about transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS)
> and its possible applications and moral consequences written by Sally
> Adee, a woman who has actually tried it.


tDCS doesn't seem specific enough to me. Even the arrayed tDCS paper had
really horrible targetting capability. I think transcranial ultrasound
still proves to have better targeting. First everyone was up in arms about
rTMS, which has a few centimeters in targeting, then tDCS again which has
somewhat *less* resolution, but whatever. Phased ultrasound arrays seems
like a better plan, because stimulating smaller regions of the brain gives
you more specific control instead of generic new-ageist "wave therapy".

- Bryan
http://heybryan.org/
1 512 203 0507
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 18:49:11 2012
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 13:49:11 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CABaSBax0rck5udPykSVzw-+C57F+3ZRiN6JXwL=dg9ZGbcAk8g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CABaSBax0rck5udPykSVzw-+C57F+3ZRiN6JXwL=dg9ZGbcAk8g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfeGPV01RTgdzMMCORtcCp+cT8_z3W_pdpyuXgtPogLwA@mail.gmail.com>

Yea, I love the ultrasound approach, very promising but so far all the
experiments are limited to animals, I don't think it has passed safety
trials yet.
I have used myself auditory pulses to enhance slow wave sleep, with pretty
good results.
Giovanni

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 1:12 PM, Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> wrote:

> 2012/4/1 Christian Vanderwall <cvanderwall14 at gmail.com>
>
>> Very cool article about transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS)
>> and its possible applications and moral consequences written by Sally
>> Adee, a woman who has actually tried it.
>
>
> tDCS doesn't seem specific enough to me. Even the arrayed tDCS paper had
> really horrible targetting capability. I think transcranial ultrasound
> still proves to have better targeting. First everyone was up in arms about
> rTMS, which has a few centimeters in targeting, then tDCS again which has
> somewhat *less* resolution, but whatever. Phased ultrasound arrays seems
> like a better plan, because stimulating smaller regions of the brain gives
> you more specific control instead of generic new-ageist "wave therapy".
>
> - Bryan
> http://heybryan.org/
> 1 512 203 0507
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  2 19:28:54 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 12:28:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAHUTwkNy7MRabkHEnBz6XiQSRXM4L8y5FnVzqUHWxjCTahi_Xw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRzbvDqzj_4FgFJEuSkR4naWdXwZvuoD4v_ArdarquZNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJUeD7j1_sks0mTjmfQQPH=Mp-GrODswBQuVzzfNrz4raOdvYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120330065442.GM14482@leitl.org>
 <CAJUeD7hxwN8N5TZsnu3NXU5wS4ajxkr3qWkTxvkpezf3gmR41Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgQ3HwO6eyD_+T4iNti=2tz-HmHU8=orW2_2N1M9P22nw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120330123656.GD14482@leitl.org> <008201cd0e9a$4d12c2c0$e7384840$@att.net>
 <CAM5aL2dMzwgw+AdhW5z7RMpJhYi4ZxFhTO_b5hdjeA0kx_qT-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a301cd0ea2$c576cb00$50646100$@att.net>
 <CAM5aL2e_Ri9ofHukUyU3ZCH16B2CieRp_jnPN_o_xPdK0Lc2gw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c601cd0ead$259f4b60$70dde220$@att.net>
 <CAHUTwkNy7MRabkHEnBz6XiQSRXM4L8y5FnVzqUHWxjCTahi_Xw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <011e01cd1106$d81b34b0$88519e10$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Jeff Davis
Subject: Re: [ExI] The silent PV revolution

2012/3/30 spike <spike66 at att.net>:

>>...these are made for racing and can handle the torque from a racing tuned
1000 liter 4 cylinder engine.

>Yee hah!  I want one of those.  With bore and stroke the same, those
pistons are over a foot across.  Best, Jeff Davis


Haarrrrararararrrrr...

It isn't so much a three-order of magnitude error as an omission of the one
little prefix milli.  But what's three orders of magnitude between friends.

{8^D

s
 



From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Mon Apr  2 20:03:21 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 14:03:21 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Test
Message-ID: <CAMd8APyQFuovOK+2o0mXXKha+2yjwS7vYn7Fd_+E3et+-1=hJA@mail.gmail.com>

Test
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  2 22:51:44 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 15:51:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000e01cd1123$2d896900$889c3b00$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Kelly Anderson
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1959/1

>... the Chinese, but also that they will ...and claim real estate on the
moon through the same centuries old processes that has been used to claim
land here on earth...I don't remember discussing this here, maybe before I
was here... but it's a big deal that we should consider on this list.
-Kelly
_______________________________________________

Actually it was discussed here extensively about ten years ago, and formed
one of the few areas of general consensus: regardless of nationality down
here, whoever gets there first with the means to defend it at the site owns
the moon.

Spike







From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  2 23:35:27 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2012 16:35:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPfG8Rvap-si0Dps1BB11eA73d46HuatpHx=ekLqATRuzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPfG8Rvap-si0Dps1BB11eA73d46HuatpHx=ekLqATRuzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000901cd1129$4905f170$db11d450$@att.net>

My fault, I had guests this weekend and got a little behind on the moderator
duties.  When stuff comes in on 1 April, we know to beware, but it was
delayed a day because of me, so this came thru this morning, apologies.
spike

 

 

On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM, Christian Vanderwall
<cvanderwall14 at gmail.com> wrote:

Very cool article about transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and
its possible applications and moral consequences written by Sally Adee, a
woman who has actually tried it.

 

"they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the current
flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've found
that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide range
of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship."



http://theweek.com/article/index/226196/how-electrical-brain-stimulation-can
-change-the-way-we-think/1 

 

-- Christian


_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 06:40:16 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 07:40:16 +0100
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhUvzdwDafzp0GUnzsOWh8EZiHv1m9mSE=E6hfbGNi0wQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhUvzdwDafzp0GUnzsOWh8EZiHv1m9mSE=E6hfbGNi0wQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg2dCc+Rx_c3VCxMf+ByVxZ4=7CnUxxcEY2Q4z1hotcTQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 5:24 PM, BillK  wrote:
> Or alternatively you could have your three-wheeler car and make it fly as well!!
>
> <http://pal-v.com/>
>
> The PAL-V ONE is a two seat hybrid car and gyroplane: a personal air
> and land vehicle. What makes the PAL-V ONE attractive is the
> convenience of fully integrated door-to-door transportation.
>
>

Now  watch the test flight video...... 1.5 minutes

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SgHSaNtAMjs>
<http://www.gizmag.com/pal-v-flying-car/22032/>


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr  3 07:28:18 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 09:28:18 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZa6Wnt7f7M-uk_isvUUKWKyjt78BB1Hr7d9yvkjLNkKQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZa6Wnt7f7M-uk_isvUUKWKyjt78BB1Hr7d9yvkjLNkKQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120403072818.GL14482@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 09:25:54PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 3:21 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > I am only talking about what is feasible. NSA is a pretty conservative
> > shop, so I don't think they'd be pushing the envelope.
> 
> I'm honestly a little confused by this statement Eugen... The NSA
> employs the top graduates in mathematics, computer science and

Those top graduates who would work for that particular employer.
So far Wall Street has proved to be a far more reliable attractor
of top talent, since paying top salaries. The patriot card is 
unlikely the draw the best and brightest.

> cryptography. They likely have the most advanced super computers in
> the world.

Anyone with the budget can order the most advanced supercomputer.
Many on http://www.top500.org/ do have that budget.

> http://www.ltionline.com/news/nsa-to-use-latest-supercomputing-capabilities-to-combat-threats-to-u-s/
> 
> They are rumored to build their own hardware when the occasion

You can build your own hardware. Just submit a VHDL specification
to a fab. 

You will not be able to beat the likes the Intel and AMD, or even ARM
at their game. Guess what, neither does the NSA. They're just a customer.

> warrants. They have one of, if not the largest database on the planet.

So does Google and Facebook.

> They almost certainly have the best decryption software. They have

If NSA wouldn't lead the field in cryptoanalysis one would wonder
what their reason to exist are. But in practice nobody works through
a strong cryptosystem. One works around it.

> leading edge technology to analyze billions of satellite photographs
> from the best spy satellites out there, taking pictures with less than
> 6 inches of resolution (some say much less). If that's not leading
> edge, I don't know what is.

I grant you that they have definitely the lead in automatic image
analysis.
 
> So how is it that you can say they are "conservative" and not "pushing
> the envelope"? It just seems like a rather outlandish claim...

Why is NSA a conservative shop? Because they're a government organization
that can't afford to fail spectacularly. In fact, they always failed the
best when straying from the their competency too much.

And if you read Bamford religiously, you'd *know* that they're not
into the bleeding edge.

http://www.amazon.com/James-Bamford/e/B000APPIUM/


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr  3 07:39:03 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 09:39:03 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <201204012340.q31NeCfS016506@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CAM5aL2dXQdi8Kdm+TkHPi6Rqzus0uB9c5xubvJB5rw544rd=0g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a40aLY09gmJh8N59y08pWQ70V25ENaEdazTZRGmnumfSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fp77OtogSLfJ9s2wxKpuF1LnfS7yhfk8ZXnh2zUGrepA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a5F80+CXiinanZjTiBSKcWf7xNA3Vp_TuT0MLe2DsS=jw@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F6DBFE3.9070109@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203311911390.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120331195747.GR14482@leitl.org>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1203312313290.29936@tau.ceti.pl>
 <20120401092110.GW14482@leitl.org>
 <201204012340.q31NeCfS016506@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <20120403073903.GM14482@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 07:40:04PM -0400, David Lubkin wrote:

> Tape doesn't require energy sitting on a rack, but it does have to
> be exercised or data will be lost. Our practice when I was at Livermore

Same thing with drives. You have to scrub periodically (I scrub weekly,
with SAS I'd scrub monthly) in order to combat bit rot.

> was to move the data to a new tape once a year. And it's useless for
> analysis sitting on a rack.

Exactly. You'd keep most of your important data in RAM, and everything
else few 10 ms away. Tape would as well be not there. Besides, it's 
hard to beat 4 TByte/3.5" (eventually, at least 60 TByte/3.5").

> No one has particularly mentioned the world of bigdata.
>
> (Some of you know all this. Some of you don't. So we're all on a
> similar page: )
>
> There are an assortment of projects about, some in heavy production
> use, to build massive databases and file systems out of commodity
> hard disks, with the expectation that at any time something will be
> broken.

Many people work with PByte scale data. It's nothing unusual.

http://blog.backblaze.com/2009/09/01/petabytes-on-a-budget-how-to-build-cheap-cloud-storage/

http://archive.org/web/petabox.php

> Google File System keeps files in 64 MB chunks, spread across a
> server cluster so that there are at least three copies of each. Individual

Google have specific requirements -- incidentally, some of it could
match the NSA's user profile.

I personally would use a network file system over zfs as back end.

> files are commonly over 1 GB. Google has been using this for about a
> decade. They won't say precisely how much is in it, but it's admitted to
> be at least 50,000 servers with tens of petabytes (PB) in all. There are
> rumors it's much larger than that.
>
> Then they built Bigtable on top of the file system. Many internal projects
> are over 1 TB; at least one of them is over 1 PB.

Meh, we work with 20 TByte data sets, a small shop of 25 people.
My next personal project is a 10 TByte data set.

> The Apache Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) is an open source
> copy of the Google File System. Facebook uses it, and announced in
> July they had 30 PB of data in it.

Just 30 racks. Given how many systems they and Google have, they likely
have a lot more than that.

> Other projects are similar in scope. Amazon isn't saying what the design
> or capacity of S3 is, but they do admit to hosting about a trillion data
> objects, each of which could be up to 5 TB. IBM's GPFS has been
> tested up to 4 PB.
>
> Given the need to redundantly store data against equipment failure,
> state-of-the-art commercial sites today can handle about a thousand
> person-years at Anders' figure of 10 TB/year. Facebook could handle
> about fifteen people's lifetime surveillance with their current capacity.

Given that NSA already dropped the ball on 9/11 because they focused on
sigint too much they will do nothing like that.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr  3 08:44:00 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 10:44:00 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120403084400.GO14482@leitl.org>

On Mon, Apr 02, 2012 at 03:08:29PM +0200, Stefano Vaj wrote:

> Do not take me wrong. I am more than happy with any *practical* measures
> aimed at protecting one's secrets, and/or any non-secret data or

There are plenty of practical measures around. But it doesn't help
if most of them are being made illegal. E.g. masked demonstration?
Illegal.

> communication to avoid red-flagging secret ones, even though I suspect that
> technology is going shift the balance away from the period of relative
> privacy we enjoyed in the last couple of centuries (much less so since

Why would one tolerate video with integrated biometric collection?
Or warrantless collection of cellular position information? The people
who ordered this need to go to jail for a long time.

How do you combat this with countermeasures on user's end? You can't.
You need to made them illegal. It *is* very simple.

> WWII, for that matter).
> 
> What is OTOH detrimental to civil liberties and political change is giving
> to governments more powers, more money, more enforcement tools, more rights
> of inspection, more opportunities for blackmail, to... prevent privacy
> breaches.

Don't forget big data collection agencies like Google and Facebook.
Anything they have NSA does. Via a covenient API, too.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr  3 09:00:44 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 11:00:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again:  was RE:  The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
References: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20120403090044.GP14482@leitl.org>

On Mon, Apr 02, 2012 at 08:35:04AM -0700, spike wrote:

> Even this may be unnecessary.  Yesterday I was at the San Jose Tech Museum.
> They have a new display about high efficiency ape haulers.  One of their
> ideas is a three wheeled single seater, two wheels forward, one aft.  It
> still used standard mass production tires, so if we accept the weight
> penalty and rolling drag penalty of those wide tires, then current standard
> road surfaces would still work.

We need in-hub motors with less than 20 kg unsprung mass. 
This might be synergistic with airless wheels. 

This allows you to get rid of the transmission and to use
drive by wire which prepares the ground for autonomous
vehicles.


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr  3 14:21:25 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 07:21:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg2dCc+Rx_c3VCxMf+ByVxZ4=7CnUxxcEY2Q4z1hotcTQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <006f01cd10e6$2d46ce70$87d46b50$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhUvzdwDafzp0GUnzsOWh8EZiHv1m9mSE=E6hfbGNi0wQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armg2dCc+Rx_c3VCxMf+ByVxZ4=7CnUxxcEY2Q4z1hotcTQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007101cd11a5$0da7f700$28f7e500$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of BillK
>...Subject: Re: [ExI] ape haulers again: was RE: The silent PV revolution

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 5:24 PM, BillK  wrote:
> Or alternatively you could have your three-wheeler car and make it fly as
well!!
>
>...Now  watch the test flight video...... 1.5 minutes

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SgHSaNtAMjs>
<http://www.gizmag.com/pal-v-flying-car/22032/>  BillK
_______________________________________________


Very cool, thanks BillK.  For a long time I have been convinced that if we
get flying cars, they will be autogyros like this one.  This one combines
autogyro with a notion I have long thought practical, the three wheel
leaner.  

The leaning three wheeler has several of the advantages of a motorcycle but
solves two big problems: weather exposure and the helmet requirement.  The
weather exposure problem is obvious, but the helmet thing is bigger than we
boys realize: the ladies don't like to put their hair in a helmet before
work.  Fully enclosed vehicles generally do not require helmets.

spike



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 15:42:51 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 17:42:51 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7Y4hS0LQhCGQMFEozpmiToxLwy9uRCoR5Gh3zJpBwOKA@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/2 Christian Vanderwall <cvanderwall14 at gmail.com>

> "they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the
> current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've
> found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide
> range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship."
>

"and, if you raise the voltage enough, you will also enjoy the additional
benefits of old-fashioned electroshock". :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 15:51:12 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 17:51:12 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120403084400.GO14482@leitl.org>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120403084400.GO14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6AXyUeaGzMBAzkN7d4U_Da9Q23A30P5eaxND62H9KpsA@mail.gmail.com>

On 3 April 2012 10:44, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> There are plenty of practical measures around. But it doesn't help
> if most of them are being made illegal. E.g. masked demonstration?
> Illegal.
>

We are on the same line here. I do not trust legal remedies to protect my
privacy, but I certainly oppose any legal/administrative/governmental
policies and statutes aimed at outlawing even the attempt.


> Why would one tolerate video with integrated biometric collection?
> Or warrantless collection of cellular position information? The people
> who ordered this need to go to jail for a long time.
>

Beware, you might be put to jail on such accusations yourself (unless of
course you belong to a public agency of a politically-correct government
and do everything according to the rules, in which case all is fine and
dandy).


> Don't forget big data collection agencies like Google and Facebook.
> Anything they have NSA does. Via a covenient API, too.
>

Yes, absolutely. I do not know whether it is just an urban legend that FB
was created as a consequence of the failure of traffic analysis tools in
the nineties, but certainly it has been a dream come true for certain
agencies.

However, FB is a case in point. The reason why people publish
semi-sensitive stuff there is because they are deliberately lulled in a
confidence that they are in control of which data are going to accessed by
whom.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr  3 15:50:45 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 08:50:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>

Greetings all,

 

Gina is having trouble receiving her own posts.  Did anyone here not see
this come thru yesterday?  My first idea is that her spam filter is somehow
trashing her own posts, but that isn't it.  

 

spike

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Gina Miller
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2012 10:41 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer

 

Hello, 

 

My latest animation "The Programmer" is full of binary code and questionable
creators - it's the stuff that life is made of, maybe...

 

If you don't want to read the spoiler below the video before you watch it,
click the full screen icon to the right. 

 

 <http://vimeo.com/37152806> http://vimeo.com/37152806

 

Kind regards, 

Gina "Nanogirl" Miller

www.nanogirl.com 

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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr  3 16:41:13 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 03 Apr 2012 18:41:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>

I'm unsure if I'm seeing my own posts too.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 17:02:25 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 18:02:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>
 <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 5:41 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> I'm unsure if I'm seeing my own posts too.
>
>


I don't think anybody receives their own posts. Otherwise you would
have two copies of all your own posts in your mailer.

You can check in the archives to see if your post has been received
and sent to the rest of the list.

<http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/>

BillK


From sparge at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 16:59:06 2012
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 12:59:06 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6AXyUeaGzMBAzkN7d4U_Da9Q23A30P5eaxND62H9KpsA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120403084400.GO14482@leitl.org>
 <CAPoR7a6AXyUeaGzMBAzkN7d4U_Da9Q23A30P5eaxND62H9KpsA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2d3_7b-arkK3VnuZnhOjuy=AY=GfU_iwg_uBPyX96g_xw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 11:51 AM, Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:

> However, FB is a case in point. The reason why people publish
> semi-sensitive stuff there is because they are deliberately lulled in a
> confidence that they are in control of which data are going to accessed by
> whom.


I'm under no such delusion. I don't post anything to FB or g+ that I
*really* don't want to be public, even if I "limit" it to a subset like
friends or family. Same goes for e-mail.

-Dave
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From kryonica at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 15:47:34 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 16:47:34 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a7Y4hS0LQhCGQMFEozpmiToxLwy9uRCoR5Gh3zJpBwOKA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7Y4hS0LQhCGQMFEozpmiToxLwy9uRCoR5Gh3zJpBwOKA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <236F17B8-290A-4385-9B37-B0666691CF85@gmail.com>


On 3 Apr 2012, at 16:42, Stefano Vaj wrote:

> 2012/4/2 Christian Vanderwall <cvanderwall14 at gmail.com>
> "they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship." 

The problem seems to be that the effect only lasts about a couple of hours.  Which may be a good thing should things go wrong, but I wouldn't mind keeping the benefits.
> 
> "and, if you raise the voltage enough, you will also enjoy the additional benefits of old-fashioned electroshock". :-)
> 
> -- 
> Stefano Vaj
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr  3 18:18:46 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 11:18:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net> <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <012a01cd11c6$361d0240$a25706c0$@att.net>

Anders I get this one but haven't seen anything else from you since the
27th.  Anyone else not seeing their own posts?  spike

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 9:41 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Programmer

I'm unsure if I'm seeing my own posts too.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Apr  3 18:38:20 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 20:38:20 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net> <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 3 Apr 2012, BillK wrote:

> On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 5:41 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> > I'm unsure if I'm seeing my own posts too.
> >
> >
> 
> 
> I don't think anybody receives their own posts. Otherwise you would
> have two copies of all your own posts in your mailer.

I do receive two copies, exactly what I intended.

I also received mails from Gina.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 18:48:17 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 19:48:17 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>
 <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 7:38 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> I do receive two copies, exactly what I intended.
>
> I also received mails from Gina.
>
>

OK. I've just checked. It is an option on your list subscription profile.

You can choose whether or not to receive your own posts.


BillK


From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 19:11:07 2012
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 14:11:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <236F17B8-290A-4385-9B37-B0666691CF85@gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7Y4hS0LQhCGQMFEozpmiToxLwy9uRCoR5Gh3zJpBwOKA@mail.gmail.com>
 <236F17B8-290A-4385-9B37-B0666691CF85@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPeiKOVMt9aiPcKdUjP8=vuBuxerziqeJK0kD9V7r5Qo4w@mail.gmail.com>

No, that is not true either. Some effects can last weeks.
Like improvement in memory.
Giovanni

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM, Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On 3 Apr 2012, at 16:42, Stefano Vaj wrote:
>
> 2012/4/2 Christian Vanderwall <cvanderwall14 at gmail.com>
>
>> "they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the
>> current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've
>> found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide
>> range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship."
>>
>
> The problem seems to be that the effect only lasts about a couple of
> hours.  Which may be a good thing should things go wrong, but I wouldn't
> mind keeping the benefits.
>
>
> "and, if you raise the voltage enough, you will also enjoy the additional
> benefits of old-fashioned electroshock". :-)
>
> --
> Stefano Vaj
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 19:14:16 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 13:14:16 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net>
 <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAMd8APwXGEaZTS3FfWa+iW2nQ-5oi0VgYNcd-moMSG1iRJfgvg@mail.gmail.com>

Where is that?

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 12:48 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 7:38 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> > I do receive two copies, exactly what I intended.
> >
> > I also received mails from Gina.
> >
> >
>
> OK. I've just checked. It is an option on your list subscription profile.
>
> You can choose whether or not to receive your own posts.
>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr  3 20:39:31 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 03 Apr 2012 22:39:31 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <236F17B8-290A-4385-9B37-B0666691CF85@gmail.com>
References: <CAPHAwR=Xpp+FV_=hebb9p50VPfbUUERu+3pKkHuxbFZr-tvp-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7Y4hS0LQhCGQMFEozpmiToxLwy9uRCoR5Gh3zJpBwOKA@mail.gmail.com>
 <236F17B8-290A-4385-9B37-B0666691CF85@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F7B6003.8060704@aleph.se>

On 2012-04-03 17:47, Kryonica wrote:
> The problem seems to be that the effect only lasts about a couple of
> hours. Which may be a good thing should things go wrong, but I wouldn't
> mind keeping the benefits.

The trick is that during those hours you have increased plasticity. So 
learning (or unlearning) something might stick much better later. This 
is likely why Roi Cohen Kadosh's number learning experiment worked even 
after six months.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Apr  3 20:45:38 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 22:45:38 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <CAMd8APwXGEaZTS3FfWa+iW2nQ-5oi0VgYNcd-moMSG1iRJfgvg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net> <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAMd8APwXGEaZTS3FfWa+iW2nQ-5oi0VgYNcd-moMSG1iRJfgvg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032241530.18034@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 3 Apr 2012, Gina Miller wrote:

> Where is that?
> 
> On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 12:48 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 7:38 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> > > I do receive two copies, exactly what I intended.
> > >
> > > I also received mails from Gina.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > OK. I've just checked. It is an option on your list subscription profile.
> >
> > You can choose whether or not to receive your own posts.
> >
> >
> > BillK
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

You need to get to web page whose address is above, or on the bottom of 
every message from the list:

http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

There, scroll to the bottom and fill in your email in text field next to 
"unsubscribe or edit" button. You'll be asked for password, click "remind 
me" to get it via email.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr  3 21:33:45 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 14:33:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Programmer
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APw5siHB-hYaLWVOS9K_y=RkX=O4=swJ-3HqzZV6K2P0sQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a901cd11b1$88a487a0$99ed96e0$@att.net> <4F7B2829.9010201@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armimpHF3XnPZwmJPZX8Gg98VCXMkjcWh6EGhre9AGS8vxw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204032037140.18034@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAL_armiwsmA-OiuCjdteJMGhNqn=AY2198GQYSM1CA9N010iCg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01a201cd11e1$737f2a80$5a7d7f80$@att.net>

OK, Gina, your account looked OK, but as a diagnostic I set it to send you a
receipt if the server gets a message from you, and also turned off your
no-duplicates filter.  My reasoning is that if for some reason you had
accidentally set your email account to email yourself, the ExI-chat server
might somehow be interpreting your messages as duplicates of your messages
to you, and decide to stop spamming you with your own words.  Or something.

Actually if I had thought that through more carefully, I would have changed
only one thing at a time, but if that fixes the problem and you are OK with
it like that, I suggest we just leave it that way, ja?

Anders, I will try a similar approach to your account.

spike

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 11:48 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Programmer

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 7:38 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> I do receive two copies, exactly what I intended.
>
> I also received mails from Gina.
>
>

OK. I've just checked. It is an option on your list subscription profile.

You can choose whether or not to receive your own posts.


BillK
_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr  3 22:09:19 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 04 Apr 2012 00:09:19 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Re:  Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <4F7A064D.80405@aleph.se>
References: <4F7A064D.80405@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <4F7B750F.8090309@aleph.se>

(Repost?)

On 2012-04-02 20:12, Bryan Bishop wrote:
>  tDCS doesn't seem specific enough to me. Even the arrayed tDCS paper had
>  really horrible targetting capability.

To really work well one should use fMRI targeting, but it is a tad
tricky to do in a general setting. I suspect that even if you could get
ultrasound to stimulate with pinpoint precision you would still need
something like that because of the variability of brains. In fact, the
more precise the stimulation, the more likely it is that you miss the
proper target.

tDCS is interesting because it is so general, but it is also slightly
tricky because you need to figure out what areas to excite or inhibit.
Some memory studies have shown that the optimal effect is
stage-dependent, with inhibition of left DLPFC during encoding and
excitation during retrieval produces the best results. Inhibiting some
regions can enhance other tasks, and so on.

The ethics paper mentioned in the article is from down the hallway; "The
neuroethics of non-invasive brain stimulation. I couldn't find a free
copy online, but here are some interview:
http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/science_blog/brainboosting.html
Generally a sensible paper, mainly worried about the temptation to
prematurely apply it to young brains before we know enough about its
effects.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr  3 22:09:58 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 04 Apr 2012 00:09:58 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se>
References: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>

(Repost?)

On 02/04/2012 09:32, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>  On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 11:31 PM, Eugen Leitl<eugen at leitl.org>   wrote:
>>
>>  There's the only way to claim land: ability to defend it. I don't
>>  see how can any state attempt to claim the whole of the Moon, if anything,
>>  it would be some strategic locations (area at the poles, some mineral
>>  deposits, etc).
>  Set up guns.  (Railguns, possibly.)  Shoot anything that gets too close.
>  As expensive as it is to send things up now, requiring armor - or
>  powerful enough engines to dodge - would make it far more expensive.
>  If you claim the entire Moon, you don't have to worry about whether
>  anything incoming is going to land in your part or not.

It is not the moon end where force is relevant, it is in near Earth
orbit and launch/reentry. A moonbase is nothing if it cannot get
supplies or deliver whatever valuable is there down to Earth. Things in
the stratosphere and low orbit can be hit (as demonstrated by the
Chinese, and implicit in the ABM system). The problem is that defense is
hard while offense is easy: armor is not feasible when you have to
struggle against the rocket equation or re-entry aerodynamics, and
anything at orbital velocity is already nearly a railgun bullet.

My guess is that any attempt at owning the moon requires having *all*
powers able to wreck your expensive space infrastructure agree that it
is OK.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University




From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 22:16:25 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 16:16:25 -0600
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <000e01cd1123$2d896900$889c3b00$@att.net>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <000e01cd1123$2d896900$889c3b00$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYuhWWXPmSbc8n0JF=-XT5oY684UNUZHe=A_Cge2V8fbA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 4:51 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Actually it was discussed here extensively about ten years ago, and formed
> one of the few areas of general consensus: regardless of nationality down
> here, whoever gets there first with the means to defend it at the site owns
> the moon.

Good to know we are that far ahead of the curve. What do you think
about it being China specifically?

-Kelly


From ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 23:10:02 2012
From: ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com (Gina Miller)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 17:10:02 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Test
Message-ID: <CAMd8APwt2xY3xEk0VcsX4OsHtBVWk3h=hN5jS6FMpJRMUrjv0A@mail.gmail.com>


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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 23:14:22 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 17:14:22 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <20120402065254.GH14482@leitl.org>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402065254.GH14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwbd+YOW_FBQpVKc49Z3oHRnxoRNmc_h33AoSBQU7YzAOQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 2, 2012 at 12:52 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 01, 2012 at 04:55:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> Yes, it is an arms race. But, like the war on drugs, is it a fight
>
> So far, the situation wouldn't even exist if people would pick up
> the arms and munitions laying on the very ground before them.

I have to admit that you've got me thinking. I've begun looking at
Tor, bitcoin and even learned about Silk Road... all very interesting
stuff.

>> worth fighting? Yes, drugs are bad. Yes, loss of privacy is bad. But
>
> I think you must be on drugs in order to equate the war on (some)
> drugs with the desire to protect one's privacy and the right to
> be anonymous in some transactions. Like the fucking vote, you know.

I am not on drugs. However, the war on some (most, including
prescription) drugs and the war on some privacy are pretty similar in
some important ways. Selectivity for one thing. People have the choice
to give up their privacy voluntarily. I do so every time I post to
this list, for example. People have a choice to take drugs illegally,
but they will go to jail if they are caught. Both are choices. Both
are kinda dumb to do voluntarily.

>> is fighting against it worth the cost? Will it still be perceived as
>
> *Which cost*? The cost of your freedom?

I like freedom. I like privacy. I just don't feel like in the big bad
world full of big bad things that it's anywhere near the top of my
priority list. I'll probably still be saying that when they haul me
off to the big house.

>> worth the cost by the next generation? Those are the interesting
>> questions.
>
> Yes, these are extremely interesting questions. And especially,
> the people who hold them. Very interesting. In the clinical sense.

I find it strange that people will give away all their secrets on
youtube and facebook, I really do. But the next generation seems to
have less shame (which may be a good thing in some ways) and care very
little about privacy in many cases. With these trends, I can't see
privacy being held together for us old timers...

>> When we are no longer the most intelligent and important species on
>> the planet, our privacy will not be any more important than that of a
>> gorilla in the zoo. The privacy of the new big dogs will likely still
>
> Do you really want to be that gorilla? I mean, right now?

No, certainly not. But what I want, and what WILL happen... aren't
necessarily the same thing are they?

> You're certainly
> awfully accepting of being locked up in a panopticon. I hear lots of
> municipalities run for-profit prisons. As in forced inmate labor.
> It would be very easy to get in there, just get rid of your privacy.
> The average US American commits some 3 felonies a day.

Of that I'm certain. The issue there, however, is too many stupid
laws. There isn't enough educational bandwidth to know what the law
is, so how can you keep it? It's ridiculous.

>> be important.
>>
>> Any technology for encryption only slows the other side down. When you
>
> No offense, but you seem to have little clue about cryptography, especially
> the economics of it.

I took a class in college. We did all the math. I passed. It was a
long time ago... but I think the principles are essentially constant.

>> encrypt something, you aren't hiding it forever, just until the
>> technology exists to decrypt it. And it always will. So think of it
>
> So why don't they just store the entire Internet traffic, you think?

Did you not read the article? That's essentially what they are going
to do. And anything protected by Tor, they'll keep twice as long, just
in case. Safer for nondescript activity to go about in clear text,
like this email.

>> like they rate safes. Some safes are rated for 5 minutes, others for
>
> Try 15-20 years. In case of one-time pads, infinity.

One time pads are unusual, and unbreakable. Most commercial grade
encryption can be broken in a couple of months with a room full of
PCs. The NSA has FAR more at their disposal than that.

>> ten hours, big ones at the bank for a few days. Nothing can stop you
>> when you are determined, only slow you down. So if you have something
>> you want kept secret forever, then you had better not put it into
>> electronic form, talk over the phone about it, or anything. Just keep
>
> So why do politicians use crypto phones, you think?

So that they won't be found out until they are out of office.

>> it to yourself. Always. Consistently. But this is not the normal way
>> we think of things.

Look, I like privacy. I like being drug free. I just don't like the
inefficiencies of HIPPA and other super stupid laws that keep me and
my doctor away from my own damn information. I don't like the
government snooping on it's own citizens... As a computer scientist,
I'm constantly confounded by how difficult it is to get reasonable
data that would keep me from wasting people's time. If I knew you were
a lesbian, I could cease marketing certain irritating things to you...
When there is no privacy, SOME things actually do get nicer. It is a
tradeoff. One that I make in the direction of privacy today, but one
that I expect the zeitgeist will sweep away over the next 100 years.
It will be like living in a small town where everyone knows about
everyone... We'll go back to that way, which is the way humans have
been for most of our history. Probably time to get back to normal a
bit more.

-Kelly


From kanzure at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 22:56:55 2012
From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 17:56:55 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Re: Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
In-Reply-To: <4F7B750F.8090309@aleph.se>
References: <4F7A064D.80405@aleph.se>
	<4F7B750F.8090309@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CABaSBax-cyu=wShL2yJh859LBwaWsDte8X-qz5iknBWZE5A8xw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 5:09 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2012-04-02 20:12, Bryan Bishop wrote:
>
>>  tDCS doesn't seem specific enough to me. Even the arrayed tDCS paper had
>>  really horrible targetting capability.
>>
>
> To really work well one should use fMRI targeting, but it is a tad
> tricky to do in a general setting. I suspect that even if you could get
> ultrasound to stimulate with pinpoint precision you would still need
> something like that because of the variability of brains. In fact, the
> more precise the stimulation, the more likely it is that you miss the
> proper target.
>

you only need your mri map once to figure out your particular brain
structure. Per-individual details are harder but less important at the
moment.

- Bryan
http://heybryan.org/
1 512 203 0507
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Apr  3 23:48:20 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 16:48:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Test
In-Reply-To: <CAMd8APwt2xY3xEk0VcsX4OsHtBVWk3h=hN5jS6FMpJRMUrjv0A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMd8APwt2xY3xEk0VcsX4OsHtBVWk3h=hN5jS6FMpJRMUrjv0A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSdCJPGwZ-5aVPsfAuwZtAvUqTKV3F8JZN-K=dTbo61Uw@mail.gmail.com>

Test received.

On Tue, Apr 3, 2012 at 4:10 PM, Gina Miller
<ginakathleenmiller at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Apr  4 03:35:08 2012
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2012 20:35:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Further work on the clinic seed story
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB56wgjz=fYnD-RQcyzZHWpsX9HDSPWtZAg7nD=Gp-T+dA@mail.gmail.com>

I have a couple of more chapters, one 35 pages on space elevators,
power sats and asteroid mining and another 5 pages on the main line of
the holiday train trip.

If any of you want to read and comment on them, ask for copies.   They
are still in draft and your comments/editorial thoughts may be
incorporated.

Keith


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Apr  4 06:29:39 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 08:29:39 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>
References: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se> <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20120404062939.GY14482@leitl.org>

On Wed, Apr 04, 2012 at 12:09:58AM +0200, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> It is not the moon end where force is relevant, it is in near Earth
> orbit and launch/reentry. A moonbase is nothing if it cannot get
> supplies or deliver whatever valuable is there down to Earth. Things in

The first resource will be polar cryotrap volatiles for fuel, the
second mined material to be launched into the Earth-Moon system
initially to produce power, but also routing/computing/storage
facilities (where the cloud was supposed to be all along: over
our heads). 

At self-rep closure over unity the new player no longer needs
the Earth, anyway. Arguably, at that stage you have solid-state
beings, so the Earth is no longer relevant, anyway.

> the stratosphere and low orbit can be hit (as demonstrated by the
> Chinese, and implicit in the ABM system). The problem is that defense is

If you have launching facilities you can retaliate by a hail of
tungsten at high Mach. 

And since having the Moon means having access to the entire
Solar system you could go out, and divert something bigger.
Like few km boulders, precision-guided, or even a 10 or 100 km
object.

> hard while offense is easy: armor is not feasible when you have to
> struggle against the rocket equation or re-entry aerodynamics, and
> anything at orbital velocity is already nearly a railgun bullet.
>
> My guess is that any attempt at owning the moon requires having *all*
> powers able to wreck your expensive space infrastructure agree that it
> is OK.


From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Wed Apr  4 08:49:57 2012
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 01:49:57 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <mailman.302.1333495373.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1333529397.55569.YahooMailClassic@web114404.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> declared:

> If I knew you were
> a lesbian, I could cease marketing certain irritating things to you...
> When there is no privacy, SOME things actually do get nicer. It is a
> tradeoff. One that I make in the direction of privacy today, but one
> that I expect the zeitgeist will sweep away over the next 100 years.
> It will be like living in a small town where everyone knows about
> everyone... We'll go back to that way, which is the way humans have
> been for most of our history. Probably time to get back to normal a
> bit more.


I'm sorry, but to me, this seems so wrong-headed I don't even know where to start.

I have to disagree with - literally - every single thing you said, there, except for "which is the way humans have been for most of our history".  That's true enough (if you replace "small town" with "small tribe").  Human lives have also been 'brutish, nasty and short' for most of our history.  The past is somewhere I have no interest in going back to.


Ben Zaiboc



From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Apr  4 09:43:14 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 10:43:14 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <1333529397.55569.YahooMailClassic@web114404.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.302.1333495373.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1333529397.55569.YahooMailClassic@web114404.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjgkgG2nd+=Q7GivxEJguCgjoeW-=XmEAd49n9eAepmTQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Apr 4, 2012 at 9:49 AM, Ben Zaiboc wrote:
> Kelly Anderson  declared:
>> If I knew you were
>> a lesbian, I could cease marketing certain irritating things to you...
>> When there is no privacy, SOME things actually do get nicer. It is a
>> tradeoff. One that I make in the direction of privacy today, but one
>> that I expect the zeitgeist will sweep away over the next 100 years.
>> It will be like living in a small town where everyone knows about
>> everyone... We'll go back to that way, which is the way humans have
>> been for most of our history. Probably time to get back to normal a
>> bit more.
>
>
> I'm sorry, but to me, this seems so wrong-headed I don't even know where to start.
> I have to disagree with - literally - every single thing you said, there, except for
> "which is the way humans have been for most of our history". ?That's true enough
> (if you replace "small town" with "small tribe"). ?Human lives have also been 'brutish,
> nasty and short' for most of our history. ?The past is somewhere I have no interest in going back to.
>
>


I agree with Ben.   I would prefer that you didn't do any marketing AT
ALL to me. That's why I run AdBlock, etc, to block advertising  and
make the web more user friendly. And don't whine at me that if I block
ads you won't be able to support your site. I don't care. There are
over 100 million other sites that I will never have time to visit
either.

And you need other defensive software as well, as many web sites treat
visitors as willing victims who don't mind being tracked and getting
stuff installed on their computer. Not always malicious sites either.
Ordinary sites are often hacked by criminals and used to infect
visitors computers without the site owner realising what is going on.

It's a jungle out there. Think self preservation.


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Wed Apr  4 12:46:30 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:46:30 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <20120404062939.GY14482@leitl.org>
References: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se> <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>
 <20120404062939.GY14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F7C42A6.1050308@aleph.se>

On 2012-04-04 08:29, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> If you have launching facilities you can retaliate by a hail of
> tungsten at high Mach.

Note that retaliation ground-orbit and ground-ground is actually easier 
than orbit-ground, since you need to provide enough delta-v to make an 
Earth-intersecting orbit (and in orbit you will tend to be reaction-mass 
poor). You don't drop things from orbit, you have to throw them very hard.


> And since having the Moon means having access to the entire
> Solar system you could go out, and divert something bigger.
> Like few km boulders, precision-guided, or even a 10 or 100 km
> object.

Big boulders are hard to accelerate, so you will throw them at normal 
orbital speeds closely along their natural orbits. This means they will 
take years to arrive.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Apr  4 12:56:10 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 14:56:10 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <4F7C42A6.1050308@aleph.se>
References: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se> <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>
 <20120404062939.GY14482@leitl.org> <4F7C42A6.1050308@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20120404125610.GO14482@leitl.org>

On Wed, Apr 04, 2012 at 02:46:30PM +0200, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2012-04-04 08:29, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>> If you have launching facilities you can retaliate by a hail of
>> tungsten at high Mach.
>
> Note that retaliation ground-orbit and ground-ground is actually easier  
> than orbit-ground, since you need to provide enough delta-v to make an  
> Earth-intersecting orbit (and in orbit you will tend to be reaction-mass  
> poor). You don't drop things from orbit, you have to throw them very 
> hard.

Moon-Earth transfer via linear mass driver at multiple lunar
escape velocity. Your biggest problem will be your tungsten
roads surviving reentry.

>
>> And since having the Moon means having access to the entire
>> Solar system you could go out, and divert something bigger.
>> Like few km boulders, precision-guided, or even a 10 or 100 km
>> object.
>
> Big boulders are hard to accelerate, so you will throw them at normal  
> orbital speeds closely along their natural orbits. This means they will  
> take years to arrive.

Of course it's a long campaign. Your best targets would be natural
close flyby candidates which you nudge into intercepting orbits.
Low-albedo stuff coming out of the Sun will be hard to spot until
it's too late.

Anyone commanding the Moon as high ground will have strategic
advantage, all things being equal.


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Apr  4 14:58:31 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 07:58:31 -0700
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <4F7C42A6.1050308@aleph.se>
References: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se> <4F7B7536.8060407@aleph.se>
 <20120404062939.GY14482@leitl.org> <4F7C42A6.1050308@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00eb01cd1273$671598a0$3540c9e0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
...

>...Note that retaliation ground-orbit and ground-ground is actually easier
than orbit-ground, since you need to provide enough delta-v to make an
Earth-intersecting orbit (and in orbit you will tend to be reaction-mass
poor). You don't drop things from orbit, you have to throw them very hard.
-- Anders Sandberg

Ja, this is what shaped the notion of brilliant pebbles.  The initial idea
was to have a body to body contact vehicle in orbit to knock out missiles
during the fly-out, which is a fourth category not mentioned above, an
orbit- orbit defense.  After all the calculations were done, it turned out
ground to orbit defense was by far the most practical, and the only concept
that survived, in the form of THAAD and others.  THAAD uses a brilliant
pebble on a ground-based missile.  This is the system that our current
leader (whose name I cannot recall) is plotting with the Russians to
eliminate after his re-election.  It works.

spike



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Wed Apr  4 15:43:32 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2012 17:43:32 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The NSA's new data center
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2d3_7b-arkK3VnuZnhOjuy=AY=GfU_iwg_uBPyX96g_xw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1333274927.4772.YahooMailClassic@web114420.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAPoR7a7MKTHJTzeBV1tNo1BP29YsVuMOcoGwF7LKGUaNSviTGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ=bBZuiFOTuHJFwGXstF8i6px-j6Q5Ry5aJz-jJFYeJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a4FB=V0MTL2CoVgFWd=K80+d_zN_ubdXCxiLV1rRPMn3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120403084400.GO14482@leitl.org>
 <CAPoR7a6AXyUeaGzMBAzkN7d4U_Da9Q23A30P5eaxND62H9KpsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2d3_7b-arkK3VnuZnhOjuy=AY=GfU_iwg_uBPyX96g_xw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7eLiZOQaFaLsGQGJ5W_kKpc6AWaE7RA_h4fS6wSjnbLA@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/3 Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com>

> I'm under no such delusion. I don't post anything to FB or g+ that I
> *really* don't want to be public, even if I "limit" it to a subset like
> friends or family. Same goes for e-mail.
>

Personally, I prefer to keep everything in the open, to accept absolutely
everyone who wants to be connected, to make very few, and rather random,
invitations myself, and make available all and only the kind of things I
would share on a personal, commercial Web site.

BTW, this approach thwarts at least to some extent the very spirit and
purpose of social networking, and this is what I like best about it. :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Apr  5 12:42:29 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 05 Apr 2012 14:42:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>

Il 31/03/2012 20:39, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Sat, Mar 31, 2012 at 12:26:32PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

>> It is nearly as bad to subsidize solar as it is to subsidize big oil.
>> In 50 years, people will be complaining about subsidies for BIG SOLAR.

> In <10 years, *I* will be complaining about solar tax (as in: tax on Wp of
> output) and pork-barrel government guaranteed buy quota for big monopoly
> solar projects like Desertec.  

Maybe not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/q-cells-files-for-insolvency-as-solar-bankrupcties-rise.html
Q-Cells Files for Insolvency as Solar Bankrupcties Rise

http://www.rischiocalcolato.it/2012/04/gotterdammerung-la-germania-barcolla-sotto-il-fallimento-q-cells.html

This is the end, my friend. (please put The Doors "The End" song in
background)

Mirco


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Apr  5 13:43:47 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2012 06:43:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
Message-ID: <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
...

>...http://www.rischiocalcolato.it/2012/04/gotterdammerung-la-germania-barco
lla-sotto-il-fallimento-q-cells.html

Mirco
_______________________________________________

Mirco, the link is to an article in one of them furrin European languages.
But the similarities with English are just enough that I think I can get the
drift of the article.  For instance, if I were a UN translator, my best
guess at their headline would go as follows:

G?tterd?mmerung. La Germania barcolla sotto il fallimento Q-Cells.

Goddammit.  The German barfly and drunken sot which has fallen mentally ill
is Q-Cells.

{Or something like that.  Translation approximate, if in doubt, do consult
actual UN translators for clarification.}

Har.  I am worried that various governments including the US, have
subsidized too many solar cells into existence and now they will inevitably
starve as the markets are not ready to support them.  In my own neighborhood
I see Solyndra, which made a rookie error: started up a factory in a state
in which the labor is unionized.  How hard is it to see that isn't going to
work?

spike

 




From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Apr  5 14:21:55 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2012 15:21:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Apr 5, 2012 at 2:43 PM, spike wrote:
> Har. ?I am worried that various governments including the US, have
> subsidized too many solar cells into existence and now they will inevitably
> starve as the markets are not ready to support them. ?In my own neighborhood
> I see Solyndra, which made a rookie error: started up a factory in a state
> in which the labor is unionized. ?How hard is it to see that isn't going to
> work?
>
>

Not quite.  Western governments first subsidised *usage* of PV to
encourage people and companies to install solar panels to help the
move away from fossil fuels.

They forgot that the panels were supposed to be bought from China
(like everything else) where Western production has been moved to over
the last 20 years. Because the West now has a huge unemployment
problem and there was a large pork barrel of newly printed money
available, the government subsidised PV startup companies to create
jobs.  As soon as the new money was spent, the startups went bust due
to cheaper panels arriving from China.   Quite obvious really.

But they can easily print more billions. No problem.   ?????? Really ???????

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Thu Apr  5 14:41:54 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2012 07:41:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] The silent PV revolution

On Thu, Apr 5, 2012 at 2:43 PM, spike wrote:
> >... ?How hard is it  to see that isn't going to work?


>...As soon as the new money was spent, the startups went bust due to
cheaper panels arriving from China.   Quite obvious really.  But they can
easily print more billions. No problem.   ?????? Really ???????  BillK

_______________________________________________

Ja, the  US has formed a most puzzling quasi-symbiotic relationship with
China.  They keep loaning us money so we can keep buying their manufactured
goods which keeps their people employed and being paid using their money.
It isn't clear why they don't just keep their own stuff and cut the US out
of the loop as unnecessary and redundant.  There are plenty of consumers in
China, they don't need us.

I see something unsettlingly analogous in the relationship between Germany
and Greece: the krauts keep loaning money to Greece so the togas can keep
buying those really cool German sports cars, with no reasonably logical
means of ever reaching an equilibrium.  Gene what is the end game of that?

spike




From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Apr  5 15:10:13 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 05 Apr 2012 17:10:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F7DB5D5.8010802@libero.it>

Il 05/04/2012 16:41, spike ha scritto:

> Gene what is the end game of that?

Inflation OR default. Or both.

The symbiotic, but parasitic is better, relation exist because both of
them are using fiat money they can and will print.

If they stop printing, there would be some equilibrium in the
import/export. They would only bankrupt the government, the banks (Am I
repeating myself?) and many others indebted people.

Mirco


From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Apr  5 15:02:51 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 05 Apr 2012 17:02:51 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>

Il 05/04/2012 15:43, spike ha scritto:
>> ... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato

> How hard is it to see that isn't going to work?

But it worked, for a time, and filled the pocket of many connected
people for a long time. The others be damned and teh future with them.

Mirco


From mrjones2020 at gmail.com  Thu Apr  5 22:21:42 2012
From: mrjones2020 at gmail.com (J.R. Jones)
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2012 18:21:42 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Apr 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:

> Il 05/04/2012 15:43, spike ha scritto:
> >> ... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
>
> > How hard is it to see that isn't going to work?
>
> But it worked, for a time, and filled the pocket of many connected
> people for a long time. The others be damned and teh future with them.
>

 By the time the world catches onto the game, they've skimmed
billions/trillions off of all us pawns.  While the world burns around them,
they and theirs ride it out in Patagonia or somewhere insulated.  In a
couple/few generations, we will have forgotten or died off, and they and
theirs can repeat the cycle once again.
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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Thu Apr  5 22:58:17 2012
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2012 15:58:17 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <4F7DB5D5.8010802@libero.it>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net> <4F7DB5D5.8010802@libero.it>
Message-ID: <1333666697.47505.YahooMailNeo@web164501.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

----- Original Message -----
> From: Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Thursday, April 5, 2012 8:10 AM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
> 
> Il 05/04/2012 16:41, spike ha scritto:
> 
>> Gene what is the end game of that?
> 
> Inflation OR default. Or both.
> 
> The symbiotic, but parasitic is better, relation exist because both of
> them are using fiat money they can and will print.

But last I heard, the Chinese government?sets the value of its currency so the U.S. money is fiat and the Chinese money is something else.

> If they stop printing, there would be some equilibrium in the
> import/export. They would only bankrupt the government, the banks (Am I
> repeating myself?) and many others indebted people.

The system we have allows the market to set the relative?prices of the world's?currencies except for China, North Korea, etc. So make up your mind, is the market good or bad? How would switching to a currency backed by a rare commodity change that except by inflating the price of the commodity and?deflating the currency in question??Imagine that China switched to using gold coins tomorrow, how would that affect Italy, Brazil, or the U.S.? 


Stuart LaForge
?
"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides.



From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Apr  6 08:40:08 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 10:40:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org>

On Thu, Apr 05, 2012 at 06:21:42PM -0400, J.R. Jones wrote:
> On Thu, Apr 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:
> 
> > Il 05/04/2012 15:43, spike ha scritto:
> > >> ... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
> >
> > > How hard is it to see that isn't going to work?
> >
> > But it worked, for a time, and filled the pocket of many connected
> > people for a long time. The others be damned and teh future with them.
> >
> 
>  By the time the world catches onto the game, they've skimmed
> billions/trillions off of all us pawns.  While the world burns around them,
> they and theirs ride it out in Patagonia or somewhere insulated.  In a
> couple/few generations, we will have forgotten or died off, and they and
> theirs can repeat the cycle once again.

Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the
gullible?


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Apr  6 09:44:06 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 11:44:06 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20120406094406.GB14482@leitl.org>

On Thu, Apr 05, 2012 at 07:41:54AM -0700, spike wrote:

> I see something unsettlingly analogous in the relationship between Germany
> and Greece: the krauts keep loaning money to Greece so the togas can keep

The bailout money never reaches the people in the street. Somebody is
really trying to hard to get people mad enough that it will take
tanks to stop them. Why do you think Pirates are at 10-12% in Krautlandia
now?

> buying those really cool German sports cars, with no reasonably logical
> means of ever reaching an equilibrium.  Gene what is the end game of that?

In absence of ability to do massive financial support to weaker
regions while enforce policy changes (like it works in the US,
with one common currency across economically very different
regions) the only way is breaking up the region into several
(2-4) tiers, each with their own currency (EUR0, EUR1, EUR2 etc.)
capable to free-float in respect to each other.




From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Apr  6 14:04:15 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 15:04:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Medical "research"?
Message-ID: <CAL_armhuNdZw+Y06O6rn3zyWSYqQtN40Ze2gNKbQOYABTnA3BQ@mail.gmail.com>

In cancer science, many "discoveries" don't hold up
By Sharon Begley, Reuters
Mar. 28, 2012 11:09AM PDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former researcher at Amgen Inc has found that
many basic studies on cancer -- a high proportion of them from
university labs -- are unreliable, with grim consequences for
producing new medicines in the future.

During a decade as head of global cancer research at Amgen, C. Glenn
Begley identified 53 "landmark" publications -- papers in top
journals, from reputable labs -- for his team to reproduce. Begley
sought to double-check the findings before trying to build on them for
drug development.

Result: 47 of the 53 could not be replicated. He described his
findings in a commentary piece published on Wednesday in the journal
Nature.

<http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/nm/in-cancer-science-many-discoveries-don-t-hold-up>

Scientists at Bayer did not have much more success. In a 2011 paper
titled, "Believe it or not," they analyzed in-house projects that
built on "exciting published data" from basic science studies. "Often,
key data could not be reproduced," wrote Khusru Asadullah, vice
president and head of target discovery at Bayer HealthCare in Berlin,
and colleagues.

Of 47 cancer projects at Bayer during 2011, less than one-quarter
could reproduce previously reported findings, despite the efforts of
three or four scientists working full time for up to a year. Bayer
dropped the projects.

------------

The problem goes beyond cancer.

On Tuesday, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences heard
testimony that the number of scientific papers that had to be
retracted increased more than tenfold over the last decade; the number
of journal articles published rose only 44 percent.

Ferric Fang of the University of Washington, speaking to the panel,
said he blamed a hypercompetitive academic environment that fosters
poor science and even fraud, as too many researchers compete for
diminishing funding.

"The surest ticket to getting a grant or job is getting published in a
high-profile journal," said Fang. "This is an unhealthy belief that
can lead a scientist to engage in sensationalism and sometimes even
dishonest behavior."

------------------


BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Apr  6 15:03:36 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 16:03:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120406094406.GB14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net>
 <20120406094406.GB14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh6aRYut_ykuxg6Gydf3o_=UrfM5j3=BBpcwKhStY7hDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 10:44 AM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> The bailout money never reaches the people in the street. Somebody is
> really trying to hard to get people mad enough that it will take
> tanks to stop them. Why do you think Pirates are at 10-12% in Krautlandia
> now?
>

Bailouts are not for the people.
It is the bankers who made bad loans that have to be bailed out.


> In absence of ability to do massive financial support to weaker
> regions while enforce policy changes (like it works in the US,
> with one common currency across economically very different
> regions) the only way is breaking up the region into several
> (2-4) tiers, each with their own currency (EUR0, EUR1, EUR2 etc.)
> capable to free-float in respect to each other.
>
>


You mean like Euros, Drachmas, Pesetas, Lira.....


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Apr  6 16:49:37 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 18:49:37 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh6aRYut_ykuxg6Gydf3o_=UrfM5j3=BBpcwKhStY7hDQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net> <20120406094406.GB14482@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armh6aRYut_ykuxg6Gydf3o_=UrfM5j3=BBpcwKhStY7hDQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120406164937.GH14482@leitl.org>

On Fri, Apr 06, 2012 at 04:03:36PM +0100, BillK wrote:
> On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 10:44 AM, Eugen Leitl  wrote:
> > The bailout money never reaches the people in the street. Somebody is
> > really trying to hard to get people mad enough that it will take
> > tanks to stop them. Why do you think Pirates are at 10-12% in Krautlandia
> > now?
> >
> 
> Bailouts are not for the people.
> It is the bankers who made bad loans that have to be bailed out.

Of course. Pretty much everyone is now aware of that,
and this is what makes people hopping mad. At some point
they will get mad enough to get out into the streets,
and with predictable push-back the situation will escalate.

Why do you think we're getting the pattern of legislation
and preparations for deployment of the military inland?
 
> > In absence of ability to do massive financial support to weaker
> > regions while enforce policy changes (like it works in the US,
> > with one common currency across economically very different
> > regions) the only way is breaking up the region into several
> > (2-4) tiers, each with their own currency (EUR0, EUR1, EUR2 etc.)
> > capable to free-float in respect to each other.
> >
> >
> 
> 
> You mean like Euros, Drachmas, Pesetas, Lira.....

No, I definitely do not mean national currencies. I mean permeable
tiers of economically roughly equivalent partners, called EUR0, EUR1,
EUR2 and so on. It's obvious that Liechtenstein, Monaco, Luxembourg, 
Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Holland and Austria aren't
playing in the same league like Moldova, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Kosovo,
Ukraine, Albania, Macedonia and so on.


From max at maxmore.com  Fri Apr  6 21:18:42 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 14:18:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>

I'm finding it surprisingly difficult to find a good source of historical
prices for a few commodities. I'm particularly interested in figuring out
the real price changes in the five metals involved in the Julian Simon-Paul
Ehlich bet since 1980. Those are copper, tin, nickel, tungsten, and
chromium.

General price inflation since 1980 has been 176.3%. So it's important that
historical price sources state whether the prices are nominal or
inflation-adjusted.

None of the sources I've come across are adequate for this task. Among
those I've tried:
http://www.basemetals.com/

http://metals.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://miner
als.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/metal_prices/

http://www.itri.co.uk/index.php?option=com_mtree&task=att_download&link_id=49605&cf_id=24

http://www.aisgroup.com/Reports/CalyonSpeechSlides041207.pdf  (page 7)

I'm also interested in price changes over longer periods and for other
commodities.

Any suggestions?

--Max

-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Apr  6 21:51:33 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 15:51:33 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Medical "research"?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhuNdZw+Y06O6rn3zyWSYqQtN40Ze2gNKbQOYABTnA3BQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhuNdZw+Y06O6rn3zyWSYqQtN40Ze2gNKbQOYABTnA3BQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZtSRhvmrzj3iMpQW_k-p39uRjwPR_-0oSfRuFO_9Lvbg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 8:04 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> In cancer science, many "discoveries" don't hold up
> By Sharon Begley, Reuters
> Mar. 28, 2012 11:09AM PDT
>
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former researcher at Amgen Inc has found that
> many basic studies on cancer -- a high proportion of them from
> university labs -- are unreliable, with grim consequences for
> producing new medicines in the future.

Quoting:
Fuzzy Thinking: The New Science of Fuzzy Logic
by Bart Kosko

Theme 4:
Don't Confuse Science with Scientists

""Scientists have in large part treated fuzzy theory and fuzzy
theorists badly. Some of us asked for it. All of us got it. In the end
that process strengthens fuzzy theory and fuzzy theorists. Adversity,
like muscle stress, works that way.
In the meantime many of us lost our faith in science. That was a deep
disappointment for those of us who had earlier lost faith in religion
and government. Science was not salvation. Career science, like career
politics, depends as much on career maneuvering, posturing, and
politics as it depends on research and the pursuit of truth. Few know
that when they start the game of science. But they learn it soon
enough.
The hardest things I learned in my fuzzy quest were that modern
science does not welcome a truly new idea. And it makes mistakes even
at the "self-evident" level of logic and math.
Science prefers small steps to large creative leaps. Modern science
often behaves no better with new ideas than the Roman Catholic Church
behaved when it forced Galileo to renounce his belief that the Earth
rotates about the Sun. Unlike the church, modern bivalent science does
not claim to possess all knowledge. It claims to follow the only road
to knowledge.""

An interesting book... about much more than it's subject matter. It
doesn't surprise me in the least that scientific results are hard to
duplicate. Yet the scientific method requires that results be
duplicated. Nobody of course will publish duplicate work unless you do
a hell of a lot of it, like these companies did.

-Kelly


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Fri Apr  6 22:00:35 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 00:00:35 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204062355460.30397@tau.ceti.pl>

On Fri, 6 Apr 2012, Max More wrote:

> I'm finding it surprisingly difficult to find a good source of historical
> prices for a few commodities. I'm particularly interested in figuring out
> the real price changes in the five metals involved in the Julian Simon-Paul
> Ehlich bet since 1980. Those are copper, tin, nickel, tungsten, and
> chromium.
> 
[...]
> I'm also interested in price changes over longer periods and for other
> commodities.
> 
> Any suggestions?
> 
> --Max

I am sure those things have been printed on paper, say, on a monthly 
basis, in periodicals addressed to folks trading those commodities. I 
would try to find them in some library.

Yes, I know this sounds so terrible. No way to copy paste, unless you come 
to them with handheld scanner.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Apr  6 21:59:02 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 15:59:02 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/6 Max More <max at maxmore.com>:
> I'm finding it surprisingly difficult to find a good source of historical
> prices for a few commodities. I'm particularly interested in figuring out
> the real price changes in the five metals involved in the Julian Simon-Paul
> Ehlich bet since 1980. Those are copper, tin, nickel, tungsten, and
> chromium.
>
> General price inflation since 1980 has been 176.3%. So it's important that
> historical price sources state whether the prices are nominal or
> inflation-adjusted.

Why does inflation of the US dollar relate to the bet? Was the bet
about how these metals would perform in dollars?

> None of the sources I've come across are adequate for this task. Among those
> I've tried:
> http://www.basemetals.com/
>
> http://metals.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/metal_prices/
>
> http://www.itri.co.uk/index.php?option=com_mtree&task=att_download&link_id=49605&cf_id=24
>
> http://www.aisgroup.com/Reports/CalyonSpeechSlides041207.pdf? (page 7)
>
>
> I'm also interested in price changes over longer periods and for other
> commodities.
>
> Any suggestions?

Good data is hard to come by. However, I think you might be able to
normalize it all to gold. Get the spot price for gold and copper on a
given day, and you should have a "value" that is real in some sense.

The problem is what is the best measure of value, the US dollar? Gold?
The Euro? What question is it that you're actually trying to answer?

I'm sure you have looked at the chart here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

-Kelly



From max at maxmore.com  Fri Apr  6 23:28:43 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 16:28:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>

Both the chart on Wikipedia (which is helpful) and this...
http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data

... give data only up to around 2002. I'll have a closer look at the
sources for the minerals.usgs report.

Kelly, what I'm looking to establish is the change in real (not nominal)
costs of those and other commodities from 1980 to the present (and for
longer time frames).

--Max


On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> 2012/4/6 Max More <max at maxmore.com>:
> > I'm finding it surprisingly difficult to find a good source of historical
> > prices for a few commodities. I'm particularly interested in figuring out
> > the real price changes in the five metals involved in the Julian
> Simon-Paul
> > Ehlich bet since 1980. Those are copper, tin, nickel, tungsten, and
> > chromium.
> >
> > General price inflation since 1980 has been 176.3%. So it's important
> that
> > historical price sources state whether the prices are nominal or
> > inflation-adjusted.
>
> Why does inflation of the US dollar relate to the bet? Was the bet
> about how these metals would perform in dollars?
>
> > None of the sources I've come across are adequate for this task. Among
> those
> > I've tried:
> > http://www.basemetals.com/
> >
> >
> http://metals.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/metal_prices/
> >
> >
> http://www.itri.co.uk/index.php?option=com_mtree&task=att_download&link_id=49605&cf_id=24
> >
> > http://www.aisgroup.com/Reports/CalyonSpeechSlides041207.pdf  (page 7)
> >
> >
> > I'm also interested in price changes over longer periods and for other
> > commodities.
> >
> > Any suggestions?
>
> Good data is hard to come by. However, I think you might be able to
> normalize it all to gold. Get the spot price for gold and copper on a
> given day, and you should have a "value" that is real in some sense.
>
> The problem is what is the best measure of value, the US dollar? Gold?
> The Euro? What question is it that you're actually trying to answer?
>
> I'm sure you have looked at the chart here:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
>
> -Kelly
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Apr  7 00:05:57 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 18:05:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZP7YHtz-CC+yx6Ggi0RF1CqX538UKd95dq_qqDQFWKWQ@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/6 Max More <max at maxmore.com>:
> Both the chart on Wikipedia (which is helpful) and this...
> http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data
>
> ... give data only up to around 2002. I'll have a closer look at the sources
> for the minerals.usgs report.
>
> Kelly, what I'm looking to establish is the change in real (not nominal)
> costs of those and other commodities from 1980 to the present (and for
> longer time frames).

It's still not entirely clear to me what "real" costs are in this
context. What is it that you would like to determine exactly?

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Apr  7 00:07:20 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 18:07:20 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZUJs_iRiXqaeRiSVTouA9zq6Qiq=DciUCKw6E9VT=CpA@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/6 Max More <max at maxmore.com>:
> Both the chart on Wikipedia (which is helpful) and this...
> http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data

By the way, this is also some pretty good data. Love it. Thanks for the pointer.

-Kelly


From max at maxmore.com  Sat Apr  7 00:18:04 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 6 Apr 2012 17:18:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZUJs_iRiXqaeRiSVTouA9zq6Qiq=DciUCKw6E9VT=CpA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZUJs_iRiXqaeRiSVTouA9zq6Qiq=DciUCKw6E9VT=CpA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wU+Of9Rx3HsCCdJb_=swkzhoaDfRvStFyRmBiPsV5puMg@mail.gmail.com>

That was given to me in a private response (hence my not mentioning who).
If anyone find good sources of date for the last decade, I'd be grateful to
hear about it.

The historical data is a good starting point for discussing long-term
trends and forecasts of commodity costs, but leaves plenty to argue about
in considering the popular view that "it really is different this time".

--Max


On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 5:07 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> 2012/4/6 Max More <max at maxmore.com>:
> > Both the chart on Wikipedia (which is helpful) and this...
> > http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data
>
> By the way, this is also some pretty good data. Love it. Thanks for the
> pointer.
>
> -Kelly
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Apr  7 07:43:27 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 07 Apr 2012 09:43:27 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Medical "research"?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZtSRhvmrzj3iMpQW_k-p39uRjwPR_-0oSfRuFO_9Lvbg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhuNdZw+Y06O6rn3zyWSYqQtN40Ze2gNKbQOYABTnA3BQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZtSRhvmrzj3iMpQW_k-p39uRjwPR_-0oSfRuFO_9Lvbg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F7FF01F.2080609@aleph.se>

On 2012-04-06 23:51, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Fri, Apr 6, 2012 at 8:04 AM, BillK<pharos at gmail.com>  wrote:
>> In cancer science, many "discoveries" don't hold up
>> By Sharon Begley, Reuters
>> Mar. 28, 2012 11:09AM PDT
>>
>> NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former researcher at Amgen Inc has found that
>> many basic studies on cancer -- a high proportion of them from
>> university labs -- are unreliable, with grim consequences for
>> producing new medicines in the future.

Bismark's quote about sausages and politics (you are better off not 
knowing how they are made) is of course true for a lot of science too. 
An annoyingly large amount is done shoddily, or suffers from inherent 
uncertainty that makes individual studies very weak in guiding us 
towards truth.

 > It
 > doesn't surprise me in the least that scientific results are hard to
 > duplicate. Yet the scientific method requires that results be
 > duplicated. Nobody of course will publish duplicate work unless you do
 > a hell of a lot of it, like these companies did.

Yup. The current setup of rewards in academia is known to be broken. It 
produces a positive publication bias (findings that something works are 
published in favor of negative findings), discourages replication, 
favors writing lots of papers over writing good papers, retraction or 
marking of erroneous results not clearly done, calls for 
interdisciplinary work yet does not give it funding, funding biases 
research, gripe gripe gripe...

Case in point: the multiple failed replications of Bem's claims of ESP 
had a very hard time getting published, despite the high profile of the 
original claim. (And of course, even after they got published normal 
media did not care to mention it - there is another slew of biases in 
how science is presented to the public and policymakers. See
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/08/media-risk-bias.html
)

Note that not all attempts at reducing bias or uncertainty will work 
well either. In many domains having more studies just produces extra 
confusion (since they produce fairly random results): what is needed is 
very big interventional studies, something that is rarely done since it 
1) costs a lot, 2) might have ethical problems, and 3) requires 
competing research groups to join forces or get kicked out of funding by 
the leading coalition. As I calculated at the end of this post
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/supping_with_th.html
reducing biasing funding (say from tobacco companies) might also reduce 
progress, since now there are fewer (if less biased) studies.

Inventing better ways of doing science should be a high priority.


> Bart Kosko:
> ""Scientists have in large part treated fuzzy theory and fuzzy
> theorists badly. Some of us asked for it. All of us got it. In the end
> that process strengthens fuzzy theory and fuzzy theorists. Adversity,
> like muscle stress, works that way.

Of course, a lot of that has to do with the fact that fuzzy logic is not 
a panacea to handling uncertainty, while its adherents claimed it was. 
It is not obvious that there is any benefit over a Bayesian treatment, 
and the latter has the advantage of being more mathematically stringent.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr  7 08:49:08 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 09:49:08 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wU+Of9Rx3HsCCdJb_=swkzhoaDfRvStFyRmBiPsV5puMg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZUJs_iRiXqaeRiSVTouA9zq6Qiq=DciUCKw6E9VT=CpA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wU+Of9Rx3HsCCdJb_=swkzhoaDfRvStFyRmBiPsV5puMg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjKvkvkks5AM9aF29z5dy_dM2Y1FugEgfYJAofwq44y8A@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/7 Max More wrote:
> The historical data is a good starting point for discussing long-term trends
> and forecasts of commodity costs, but leaves plenty to argue about in
> considering the popular view that "it really is different this time".
>
>

"popular" view???

Certainly the world has never before seen world-wide fiat currency
debt burdens on the scale we see today.

Some form of total collapse seems certain. When and what happens is
anybody's guess.

At present my opinion is going towards inflation for consumables and
deflation for assets.
Which makes for pretty miserable outcomes for the general public.

5 million USD for a loaf of bread and, No I don't want to buy your
house or a gold bar.

BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Apr  7 09:10:01 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 11:10:01 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjKvkvkks5AM9aF29z5dy_dM2Y1FugEgfYJAofwq44y8A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJX-7wXSk4sbaGbwLTsWs5xWYL9=__Padvrsdh5uA1LYR6APVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ8PagdapOTXWc4mKNG-VYM8T7b0Cg7jSVXg3a+j5cX9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wVfzZKc=n1572gQfc_dkgnMccGrxgkQdzNw4-DBvtLqmg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZUJs_iRiXqaeRiSVTouA9zq6Qiq=DciUCKw6E9VT=CpA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wU+Of9Rx3HsCCdJb_=swkzhoaDfRvStFyRmBiPsV5puMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjKvkvkks5AM9aF29z5dy_dM2Y1FugEgfYJAofwq44y8A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120407091001.GX14482@leitl.org>

On Sat, Apr 07, 2012 at 09:49:08AM +0100, BillK wrote:

> 5 million USD for a loaf of bread and, No I don't want to buy your
> house or a gold bar.

The most amazing part is that increasingly many seem to think
that the stock market is safe again.


From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Sat Apr  7 11:55:08 2012
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 04:55:08 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Further work on the clinic seed story
In-Reply-To: <mailman.339.1333754933.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1333799708.18194.YahooMailClassic@web114410.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:

> I have a couple of more chapters, one 35 pages on space
> elevators,
> power sats and asteroid mining and another 5 pages on the
> main line of
> the holiday train trip.
> 
> If any of you want to read and comment on them, ask for
> copies.???They
> are still in draft and your comments/editorial thoughts may
> be
> incorporated.


Yes, please!
Happy to do a bit of proof-reading.

I enjoyed the story when I first read it, and found it thought-provoking.  Always good to get somebody else's perspective on what a singularity might mean.


Ben Zaiboc



From painlord2k at libero.it  Sat Apr  7 15:57:07 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sat, 07 Apr 2012 17:57:07 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <1333666697.47505.YahooMailNeo@web164501.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiWKvChxarQEyo-ihdwOUu2YH2MTJR482a+arMDm3KJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009a01cd133a$3f1f9e00$bd5eda00$@att.net> <4F7DB5D5.8010802@libero.it>
 <1333666697.47505.YahooMailNeo@web164501.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <4F8063D3.5000302@libero.it>

Il 06/04/2012 00:58, The Avantguardian ha scritto:

> But last I heard, the Chinese government sets the value of its
> currency so the U.S. money is fiat and the Chinese money is something
> else.

The Renmimbi is pegged to the US$ so China try to devaluate as much as
the US devaluate the $ printing more Fed. Notes.


>> If they stop printing, there would be some equilibrium in the 
>> import/export. They would only bankrupt the government, the banks
>> (Am I repeating myself?) and many others indebted people.

> The system we have allows the market to set the relative prices of
> the world's currencies except for China, North Korea, etc. So make up
> your mind, is the market good or bad?

The market is good when people are not forced to use legal tender in
form of fiat money. If I'm forced (as in "I shot you") to use US$ or ?
to be paid and pay and someone else is able to print them from thin air,
there is not a real free market. Because there is a player able to
obtain a mean of exchange free in whatever quantities he like to have.
So we have the ECB printing one trillion ? to loan at 1% at the banks at
no cost (not even the need to print paper). But I (and  all others) must
work my ass off for hours for few ? and compete with them in the market.

> How would switching to a
> currency backed by a rare commodity change that except by inflating
> the price of the commodity and deflating the currency in question?
> Imagine that China switched to using gold coins tomorrow, how would
> that affect Italy, Brazil, or the U.S.?

I already wrote this.
This would force a balanced budget for the government, a balanced
import/export account, more prudence in investments.
This would force higher interest rates and support accumulation of
capital for all and not speculations.
In the not long run it would reduce unemployment.
It would force government to revise their absurd legislations and
abrogate large chunks of them.

Mirco



From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk  Sat Apr  7 20:44:26 2012
From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell)
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2012 21:44:26 +0100 (BST)
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <mailman.339.1333754933.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.339.1333754933.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1333831466.40896.YahooMailNeo@web132103.mail.ird.yahoo.com>

With a few minutes of the modern art of google fu, I found this -?http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1304428586133/PINK_DATA.xlsx
this will download an excel spreadsheet of World Bank data in nominal US dollars, monthly series from 1960 month 1(or January, as we call it) to 2012 month 3.
Copper is column BK, tin BM, nickel BN. Found on world bank webpage?http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,contentMDK:21574907~menuPK:7859231~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html))

Checking for chromium and tungsten,?http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/?isn't completely up-to-date, as Max said.
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/180798.pdf? states that "Trade journal prices for chromium metal go?back only to 1964. ?Thus, chromite ore is the only chromium?commodity for which the reported historical trade journal?price and U.S. import value series is long." (that PDF contains annual figures from 1940 to 1998, nominal US$)

Bah, chromium may be tricky. Searching further for recent chromium and tungsten prices, there's a few companies offering free price charts for these for the last 5 years, but I can't see the underlying data eg?http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/

http://www.itia.info/tungsten-prices.html?has a chart, they got the data from Metal Bulletin,?http://www.metalbulletin.com. They offer a 7 day free trial which allows you to chart and compare up to 5 price series - so presumably you'd need to know exactly *which* tungsten or chrome price you needed.


Anyway, researching the above was a lot easier than trying to find medieval salt prices, which I tried the other day. I raise my hat to Gregory Clark, for not only is "A Farewell to Alms" a good read, but his economic history team have researched some ludicrously difficult parts of economic history, such as comparing Ancient Babylonian grain prices to English Industrial Revolution prices.

Tom
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From painlord2k at libero.it  Sun Apr  8 15:16:42 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:16:42 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>

Il 06/04/2012 10:40, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Thu, Apr 05, 2012 at 06:21:42PM -0400, J.R. Jones wrote:
>> On Thu, Apr 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:
>>
>>> Il 05/04/2012 15:43, spike ha scritto:
>>>>> ... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
>>>
>>>> How hard is it to see that isn't going to work?
>>>
>>> But it worked, for a time, and filled the pocket of many connected
>>> people for a long time. The others be damned and teh future with them.
>>>
>>
>>  By the time the world catches onto the game, they've skimmed
>> billions/trillions off of all us pawns.  While the world burns around them,
>> they and theirs ride it out in Patagonia or somewhere insulated.  In a
>> couple/few generations, we will have forgotten or died off, and they and
>> theirs can repeat the cycle once again.
> 
> Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the
> gullible?

I think so.

A very large chunk of the renewables are simply a scam of the rich,
connected, informed against the poor, unconnected and uninformed.
Every one pushing for an investment needing subsides to return a profit
is, effectively, pushing for a scam. And scam have a bitter end, like a
bust, default, bankrupt declaration.

The rest of the chit chat is only a distraction.

I want see how the German economy will fare when they will close down
their nuclear power (not only talk about it). I want see how many jobs
will flee to some saner place (like Poland). I want see how you will be
able to keep the heavy industry going without nuclear energy. Maybe with
coal?

Your solar cell industry is bust, legally dead. The brains are leaving
for China or somewhere else.
It is not profitable and it never was. And it was unable to compete
against asian low cost jobs and more efficient resources allocation.
I want to see how much the PV incentives will stay, without a national
industry to receive the benefit of this policy and advocating for it.

Mirco




From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Apr  8 15:49:51 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 8 Apr 2012 17:49:51 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
Message-ID: <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 08, 2012 at 05:16:42PM +0200, Mirco Romanato wrote:

> > Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the
> > gullible?
> 
> I think so.
> 
> A very large chunk of the renewables are simply a scam of the rich,
> connected, informed against the poor, unconnected and uninformed.

So you think we don't need renewables? That peak fossil does
not happen in reality? It's an interesting theory. Do you have evidence
for your theory?

> Every one pushing for an investment needing subsides to return a profit
> is, effectively, pushing for a scam. And scam have a bitter end, like a
> bust, default, bankrupt declaration.

Well, we now have grid parity in California. I would call that as
a resounding success of when governmental interventions work --
by bootstrapping a market.
 
> The rest of the chit chat is only a distraction.
> 
> I want see how the German economy will fare when they will close down
> their nuclear power (not only talk about it). I want see how many jobs

You don't sound informed. Please do look at the numbers. Both in
Germany, and in Japan.

> will flee to some saner place (like Poland). I want see how you will be

The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.

> able to keep the heavy industry going without nuclear energy. Maybe with
> coal?

Again, youre confabulating something. Go get the numbers. They'll tell
you the real story.
 
> Your solar cell industry is bust, legally dead. The brains are leaving
> for China or somewhere else.

I'm not sure what drugs you're on.

> It is not profitable and it never was. And it was unable to compete
> against asian low cost jobs and more efficient resources allocation.

Are you objecting that we're getting really cheap PV from Asia?
That sounds kinda anti-competition. 

> I want to see how much the PV incentives will stay, without a national
> industry to receive the benefit of this policy and advocating for it.

The FITs are being slashed (the latest numbers I'm hearing are up to 70%,
not sure what the final verdict will be) because that mere 4% of PV destroys the
profits of utilities, since effectively removing peak where the profit
is. PV doesn't favor monopolies, it's a real end-user owned energy source.

That's not a bug, it's a feature. Grid parity in Germany is only a few more
years away, at which point the only way (save of lobbying for solar tax or
demand tax-backed guaranteed quotas for utilities) how the utilities can cope 
is by raising prices, which will of course make renewable look even better.




From painlord2k at libero.it  Sun Apr  8 19:25:47 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sun, 08 Apr 2012 21:25:47 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F81E63B.9090204@libero.it>

Il 08/04/2012 17:49, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Sun, Apr 08, 2012 at 05:16:42PM +0200, Mirco Romanato wrote:

>>> Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the 
>>> gullible?
>> I think so.

>> A very large chunk of the renewables are simply a scam of the
>> rich, connected, informed against the poor, unconnected and
>> uninformed.

> So you think we don't need renewables?

If "renewables" are not profitable, how can they be sustainable?

> That peak fossil does not happen in reality?

Political peak oil or mineral peak oil?
True or false, peak oil is a small nut to crack if you let the free
enterprises and the market to find a solution or more solutions.
You are smart, intelligent, informed, but you are not so smart, so
intelligent and so informed to be able to choose for others. Neither I am.

> It's an interesting theory. Do you have evidence for your theory?

Where did I say peak oil is true or false?
Please, do no argue pro something I didn't argue against.


>> Every one pushing for an investment needing subsides to return a
>> profit is, effectively, pushing for a scam. And scam have a bitter
>> end, like a bust, default, bankrupt declaration.

> Well, we now have grid parity in California.

Is this with or without subsides or other legislation forcing utilities
to buy the power produced at rates higher than market levels?
If it is without, are you admitting that all the previously installed PV
installations were not a good investment and needed someone to subside
them so the people installing them would, maybe, be able to turn a small
profit after 20 years?

Does California have the higher energy prices of all US because of silly
absurd legislation?

Does the profit of the current PV installations have nothing to do with
Mr. Bernanke inundating the economy with paper/electronic Fed. Notes
(aka US $) and reducing the burden of indebted people at the expenses of
savers and debasing the currency?

> I would call that as a resounding success of when governmental
> interventions work -- by bootstrapping a market.

When government intervention work we will sky on natural water snow on
Mercury surface (Sun side)

But are you talking about the US government or the German government?

>> The rest of the chit chat is only a distraction.

>> I want see how the German economy will fare when they will close
>> down their nuclear power (not only talk about it). I want see how
>> many jobs

> You don't sound informed. Please do look at the numbers. Both in 
> Germany, and in Japan.

My infos say Japans have just posted the first trade deficit in decades,
thank to the oil/NG imports to compensate the nuclear offline.
They could support the 200% GDP debt being big savers and exporters. Now
they are becoming old(er) and net importers. They are dancing on the
edge of a cliff, very high.

>> will flee to some saner place (like Poland). I want see how you
>> will be
> The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.

What is your definition of success?
Q-cell just defaulted, your PV industry is no more. The PV industry is
just China. Do you count on solar to power the heavy industries?

>> able to keep the heavy industry going without nuclear energy. Maybe
>> with coal?
> Again, you're confabulating something. Go get the numbers. They'll
> tell you the real story.


>> Your solar cell industry is bust, legally dead. The brains are
>> leaving for China or somewhere else.
> I'm not sure what drugs you're on.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/q-cells-files-for-insolvency-as-solar-bankrupcties-rise.html
Q-Cells Files for Insolvency as Solar Bankrupcties Rise

>> It is not profitable and it never was. And it was unable to
>> compete against asian low cost jobs and more efficient resources
>> allocation.

> Are you objecting that we're getting really cheap PV from Asia?

No, I'm only stating the awful reality.
All your incentive have only financed someone else PV industries and do
nothing but damage your overall economy.

> That sounds kinda anti-competition.

You sound kinda deflecting.


>> I want to see how much the PV incentives will stay, without a
>> national industry to receive the benefit of this policy and
>> advocating for it.
> 
> The FITs are being slashed (the latest numbers I'm hearing are up to
> 70%, not sure what the final verdict will be) because that mere 4% of
> PV destroys the profits of utilities, since effectively removing peak
> where the profit is. PV doesn't favor monopolies, it's a real
> end-user owned energy source.

We will see how much this will be true without incentives.

> That's not a bug, it's a feature. Grid parity in Germany is only a
> few more years away,

I would not bet the farm on this, mainly because without incentives and
with the economic disaster awaiting in the not so distant future prices
of many things will be re-evaluated and re-priced.

> at which point the only way (save of lobbying
> for solar tax or demand tax-backed guaranteed quotas for utilities)
> how the utilities can cope is by raising prices, which will of course
> make renewable look even better.

If it is so, more power to PV.
Just no incentives, tax or other against or for specific targets.
Let them live and walk on their feet or die.

Mirco


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  9 07:06:53 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 01:06:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 8, 2012 at 9:16 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> Il 06/04/2012 10:40, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
>> Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the
>> gullible?
>
> I think so.

Mirco,

You are right to a point. When the government unnaturally props up
renewables, it is a scam. When the marketplace needs renewables, then
it is not. One day, perhaps in the not too distant future according to
some very smart people, solar photovoltaics will be economically
competitive with coal. When it is, then it will no longer be a scam.
But until the market is asking for it naturally and on it's own,
without provocation from the government, then you'll see it become
real. For now, with government driven Ponzi schemes falling apart all
over the world, it looks like more of a joke than it ever has been
before.

When you have companies like Solera getting a half a billion dollars
from the government, spending it, then going out of business, it's
easy to get skeptical. But I would encourage you to point your
skepticism at the governments, not at the opportunists who are lining
up to lap at the teats of big government. Those who are REALLY
interested in solar photovoltaics will serve the small marketplace
(cabins and such) that naturally exists until technology reaches the
point that we can make it pay for more and more people. Eventually, I
think it will be profitable for all of us, and at that point it will
be ubiuqitous, and we'll wonder why didn't people ALWAYS do it this
way. The answer is the same as to why haven't they always built CPUs
as fast as they are today... it takes engineering and science, and
that takes time and builds on past successes.

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr  9 07:08:35 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 01:08:35 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
References: <CAJUeD7j4eUE-DY0WT-0zb-XrE_6w=X0w4-2d-yTBRsNKbCo+9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.

It wasn't in Spain.

-Kelly


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Apr  9 09:51:24 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 11:51:24 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>

On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:06:53AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> You are right to a point. When the government unnaturally props up
> renewables, it is a scam. When the marketplace needs renewables, then
> it is not. One day, perhaps in the not too distant future according to
> some very smart people, solar photovoltaics will be economically
> competitive with coal. When it is, then it will no longer be a scam.

I don't understand the full intricacies of
http://cleantechnica.com/2012/04/06/its-here-solar-renewable-grid-parity-or-better-in-californias-latest-renewable-power-auction/ 
but it indicates that grid parity in California has happened,
or is about to happen.

Many people are unaware that electricity is traded in large-scale,
realtime markets. Peak demand carries peak price, while low
demand (at night) at high plant thermal inertia. Because
of this e.g. 4% of PV in Germany result in 40% of peak
price reduction. This is bad for power utilities, good
for large consumers and neutral for small consumers, who
do not enjoy the bargaining power that large industry
consumers have.

So the question "when is X competitive with Y" is not very 
meaningful. You have to add where and when, and for whom.

> But until the market is asking for it naturally and on it's own,
> without provocation from the government, then you'll see it become
> real. For now, with government driven Ponzi schemes falling apart all
> over the world, it looks like more of a joke than it ever has been
> before.

I can tell you the local utilities don't think it's a joke at all.
They're in fact shitting bricks and lobby like the dickens to
kill FITs yesteryear, so to stop further increase in PV deployment
that is eating into their profits.
 
> When you have companies like Solera getting a half a billion dollars
> from the government, spending it, then going out of business, it's
> easy to get skeptical. But I would encourage you to point your

Many inefficient companies get bankrupt. Ability to fail is what makes markets
work.

> skepticism at the governments, not at the opportunists who are lining
> up to lap at the teats of big government. Those who are REALLY
> interested in solar photovoltaics will serve the small marketplace
> (cabins and such) that naturally exists until technology reaches the

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/03/26/germany-7-5-gw-of-new-solar-power-in-2011-confirmed/

Cabins, and such.

> point that we can make it pay for more and more people. Eventually, I
> think it will be profitable for all of us, and at that point it will
> be ubiuqitous, and we'll wonder why didn't people ALWAYS do it this

That's what I keep wondering for 30 years now. And yet we're still
having this conversations on this list, as if renewables were optional,
nice-to-have instead of a basic survival tool when brutal energy hunger
hits. Remember that we're on track for the "base case" scenario in
Limits to Growth. How people can serenely sail into that near future
never ceases to amaze me.

> way. The answer is the same as to why haven't they always built CPUs
> as fast as they are today... it takes engineering and science, and

Hardly a valid comparison. PV goes back to 1839, Si technology of
1955 with 1500 USD/Wp with 2% does not differ in its mode of function 
from mono Si of today with 17% and <1 USD/Wp. It's all a question
of production efficiency and economy of scale.

Interestingly, fuel cells also go back to 1838, and we still don't
have affordable fuel cells for home and propulsion.

> that takes time and builds on past successes.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Apr  9 10:06:10 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 12:06:10 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>

On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:08:35AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.
> 
> It wasn't in Spain.

Real estate crisis killed Spain. The government suddenly cut
subsidies, and everything collapsed. Solar is now 1% of Spain's
production.

Wind power, which did not receive such treatment, survived and
now produces 11%.

Moral of the story: don't cut subsidies suddenly. It can kill
the goose that will lay the golden eggs.

And, again, this isn't merely about jobs. It's ability to 
power the society when you run out of nonrenewables.

P.S. Spain is about to commit total renewable suicide, it seems:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/04/spain-imposes-temporary-halt-to-new-renewable-energy-co-generation-projects 

Moral of the story: don't do it like Spain.


From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Apr  9 16:55:48 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 09 Apr 2012 18:55:48 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
References: <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F831494.30408@libero.it>

Il 09/04/2012 11:51, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:06:53AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> 
>> You are right to a point. When the government unnaturally props up
>> renewables, it is a scam. When the marketplace needs renewables, then
>> it is not. One day, perhaps in the not too distant future according to
>> some very smart people, solar photovoltaics will be economically
>> competitive with coal. When it is, then it will no longer be a scam.
> 
> I don't understand the full intricacies of
> http://cleantechnica.com/2012/04/06/its-here-solar-renewable-grid-parity-or-better-in-californias-latest-renewable-power-auction/ 
> but it indicates that grid parity in California has happened,
> or is about to happen.

As usual the devil is in the details and if you are not sceptical enough
and don't know where to look, you will not see the details.
But you could anyway only read the title and make your mind and skip the
article and the critical analysis of it.

The reason the article can not be used to argue for a real parity grid
rate is:
1) the rate paid for feed in (8.9 cent) is lower of the feed out rate
paid by the grid customers (15 cent) because there is no accounting for
the costs of distribution of the power, the maintenance of the grid,
profit and so on.

2) looking here (
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Renewables/Feed-in+Tariff+Price.htm ),
the PV parity is true if compared with a MPR (MPR is the predicted
annual average cost of production for a combined-cycle natural gas fired
baseload proxy plant).

Gas baseload proxy plants are used to compensate for the lack of energy
production from intermittent "renovables" like solar and wind.
For every MW of power installed with solar or wind you need another MW
of gas burning plants ready to go online when the sun set (or the wind
stop). So your up front investment is "solar" + "gas" and you need
forever to amortize both together. This is the main reason the Danes
stopped to finance wind power (and they could use Germany to dump their
power in someone else grid)

So, yes, now solar power cost the same/less than the backup power needed
to make solar usable in a grid.

3) solar is mainly an up-front investment with little running costs
(yes, sunshine is free and you hope to not use gas much), so after the
upfront money is spent (in the PV plant and the gas plant), whatever the
price the managers of the PV power plants (not the homeowners with PV
panels) are able to receive is better than nothing. If it cover the
running costs and allow you to recover the investment you are very happy.

> Many people are unaware that electricity is traded in large-scale,
> realtime markets. Peak demand carries peak price, while low
> demand (at night) at high plant thermal inertia. Because
> of this e.g. 4% of PV in Germany result in 40% of peak
> price reduction. This is bad for power utilities, good
> for large consumers and neutral for small consumers, who
> do not enjoy the bargaining power that large industry
> consumers have.

> So the question "when is X competitive with Y" is not very 
> meaningful. You have to add where and when, and for whom.

And how much.

http://www.northcoastjournal.com/110305/cover1103.html
As this chart show (just as an example) the peak of electricity use
often is not near the peak of PV electricity production. Maybe sometimes
it is, often it is not. So you need to  fire the damned gas plants. This
peak also change with the seasons along with the electricity use (it
easily could double during summer).

So the peak in summer don't happen at the same time the peak in winter
and the power requested in summer peak is not the same requested in
winter peak. So you have your broken clock effect, where PV is perfect
for a couple of random days every year. In the others you need to fire
the gas.

When the big utilities lose their profit from peak demand, they simply
will (in the end) raise their base load prices to cover the losses (and
some). PV is not and will not (in the foreseeable future) be anywhere
near to cover the baseload energy demand in a reliable way. Nothing
wrong in this. The problem is when the PV plants are financed with
taxpayers/consumers money and then cause a raise of the baseload prices
they must directly or indirectly pay. For example, industrial bread oven
use electricity, so people will pay more for the food.

>> But until the market is asking for it naturally and on it's own,
>> without provocation from the government, then you'll see it become
>> real. For now, with government driven Ponzi schemes falling apart all
>> over the world, it looks like more of a joke than it ever has been
>> before.

> I can tell you the local utilities don't think it's a joke at all.
> They're in fact shitting bricks and lobby like the dickens to
> kill FITs yesteryear, so to stop further increase in PV deployment
> that is eating into their profits.

My opinion is their are worried about needing to raise the baseload
prices to cover for the loss of peak prices and much more worried to the
effects this will have on their baseload customers (like the before
mentioned industries). Many of them could be driven off the market by
increasing baseload costs. And this will eat in the utilities profits.

>> When you have companies like Solera getting a half a billion dollars
>> from the government, spending it, then going out of business, it's
>> easy to get skeptical. But I would encourage you to point your

> Many inefficient companies get bankrupt. 
> Ability to fail is what makes markets work.

Fail and grow alone for sure.
Fail and grow because of taxes, subsides and regulations a lot less.

>> point that we can make it pay for more and more people. Eventually, I
>> think it will be profitable for all of us, and at that point it will
>> be ubiuqitous, and we'll wonder why didn't people ALWAYS do it this

> That's what I keep wondering for 30 years now. And yet we're still
> having this conversations on this list, as if renewables were optional,
> nice-to-have instead of a basic survival tool when brutal energy hunger
> hits. Remember that we're on track for the "base case" scenario in
> Limits to Growth. How people can serenely sail into that near future
> never ceases to amaze me.

The current policies of the ECB, Fed.Reserve, Bank of Japan and likes
are the main danger we have in our future. They are able to destroy the
economy to save the banks and the governments.

Egypt will starve because its peasants were prevented from investing in
better agricultural equipments and education.

The problem rarely is the lack of resources, often it is the politicians
and the policies.


>> way. The answer is the same as to why haven't they always built CPUs
>> as fast as they are today... it takes engineering and science, and

> Hardly a valid comparison. PV goes back to 1839, Si technology of
> 1955 with 1500 USD/Wp with 2% does not differ in its mode of function 
> from mono Si of today with 17% and <1 USD/Wp. It's all a question
> of production efficiency and economy of scale.

Easy to say, a bit different to do.
It is like telling the Ford T and the Prius are not so different, just
production efficiency and economy of scale. Take away the Green
Revolution and probably the Prius would not be possible, because people
would spend more money to eat and would have less to drive.

> Interestingly, fuel cells also go back to 1838, and we still don't
> have affordable fuel cells for home and propulsion.

ICE engines come from the same times.

>> that takes time and builds on past successes.

But someone think he can fast forward what he want without fast
forwarding the whole economy organically.

Mirco


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr  9 23:03:28 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 16:03:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] FW: couldja post this, Spike?
In-Reply-To: <1334007904.80695.YahooMailNeo@web46116.mail.sp1.yahoo.com>
References: <1334007904.80695.YahooMailNeo@web46116.mail.sp1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <002601cd16a4$faddf430$f099dc90$@att.net>

Forwarded message. s

 

From: Alan Brooks [mailto:alaneugenebrooks52 at yahoo.com] 
Sent: Monday, April 09, 2012 2:45 PM
To: spike66 at att.net
Subject: couldja post this, Spike?

 

thanx.

http://news.yahoo.com/tiny-factories-aim-cancer-killing-drugs-201216212.html

 

  

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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Apr 10 03:09:52 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 21:09:52 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
References: <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYKAk7Z=G=11bdL3pN66sEKCKCEupxOhFoo8APSMfeJLg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 9, 2012 at 3:51 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:06:53AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> You are right to a point. When the government unnaturally props up
>> renewables, it is a scam. When the marketplace needs renewables, then
>> it is not. One day, perhaps in the not too distant future according to
>> some very smart people, solar photovoltaics will be economically
>> competitive with coal. When it is, then it will no longer be a scam.
>
> I don't understand the full intricacies of
> http://cleantechnica.com/2012/04/06/its-here-solar-renewable-grid-parity-or-better-in-californias-latest-renewable-power-auction/
> but it indicates that grid parity in California has happened,
> or is about to happen.

Here is the key paragraph Eugen...

"It may have even come too fast. The combination of California?s
market-based incentive programs, such as its RAM and Feed-in Tariff
(FiT), and its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), along with federal
government subsidies and China?s massive manufacturing and export
subsidies of crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) cells
and panels boosted both the supply and demand for solar power systems.
Sustaining costs at grid parity levels or better poses a stiff
challenge to solar power industry participants, as one or more of
these struts is removed.

Source: Clean Technica (http://s.tt/18TUm)"

So, in other words, they are at grid parity only because
1) There is a government created glut in supply
2) There are both state and federal government subsidies in place
creating artificial demand
3) They are afraid as hell that these are going to be pulled away,
leaving them unable to be at grid parity in the near future.
4) Mitt Romney will likely put an end to at least some of this silliness.

> Many people are unaware that electricity is traded in large-scale,
> realtime markets. Peak demand carries peak price, while low
> demand (at night) at high plant thermal inertia. Because
> of this e.g. 4% of PV in Germany result in 40% of peak
> price reduction. This is bad for power utilities, good
> for large consumers and neutral for small consumers, who
> do not enjoy the bargaining power that large industry
> consumers have.

I'm aware of that. This is a big advantage of solar. Especially in
California where the peak requirements are on sunny days where the air
conditioning kicks on everywhere. I'm not anti-solar, I'm
anti-government. These kinds of programs will, in the long run, hurt
solar. In the really long term, the government's clumsy meddling won't
change the cost and adoption curves because the market ULTIMATELY WILL
drive where you want to go.

This is also the BIG advantage of hydroelectric. Hoover dam releases
nearly spring flood levels of water on a hot day in California.

> So the question "when is X competitive with Y" is not very
> meaningful. You have to add where and when, and for whom.

The meaningful question for ME is when is it competitive WITHOUT
government meddling. In the long term, the government meddling
probably won't hurt solar too much, but it isn't helping all that much
either. In the long term, Germany will be servicing older solar
equipment while the rest of the world has the latest freshest good
stuff in 2020... You'll be ever so slightly less happy about what your
government did then. But thank you for subsidizing the rest of the
world. Heck, the USA does the same for you to an even greater extent
in the area of global security, so it's only fair that you carry some
of the 'stupid tax' for the rest of the world, just as we do for you.

>> But until the market is asking for it naturally and on it's own,
>> without provocation from the government, then you'll see it become
>> real. For now, with government driven Ponzi schemes falling apart all
>> over the world, it looks like more of a joke than it ever has been
>> before.
>
> I can tell you the local utilities don't think it's a joke at all.
> They're in fact shitting bricks and lobby like the dickens to
> kill FITs yesteryear, so to stop further increase in PV deployment
> that is eating into their profits.

California utilities are cry babies. When they were the producers of
Enron and rolling brown outs they were crying, now they are crying,
just a different tune.

>> When you have companies like Solera getting a half a billion dollars
>> from the government, spending it, then going out of business, it's
>> easy to get skeptical. But I would encourage you to point your
>
> Many inefficient companies get bankrupt. Ability to fail is what makes markets
> work.

But this was NOT a market failure. That's the difference silly boy.
That was just a half billion dollar transfer of wealth to China. We'll
be sorry we did it when they own the moon... LOL.

>> skepticism at the governments, not at the opportunists who are lining
>> up to lap at the teats of big government. Those who are REALLY
>> interested in solar photovoltaics will serve the small marketplace
>> (cabins and such) that naturally exists until technology reaches the
>
> http://cleantechnica.com/2012/03/26/germany-7-5-gw-of-new-solar-power-in-2011-confirmed/
>
> Cabins, and such.

I'm talking about market driven installations, not government
subsidized activity, which is all you've got in Germany.

>> point that we can make it pay for more and more people. Eventually, I
>> think it will be profitable for all of us, and at that point it will
>> be ubiuqitous, and we'll wonder why didn't people ALWAYS do it this
>
> That's what I keep wondering for 30 years now. And yet we're still
> having this conversations on this list, as if renewables were optional,
> nice-to-have instead of a basic survival tool when brutal energy hunger
> hits. Remember that we're on track for the "base case" scenario in
> Limits to Growth. How people can serenely sail into that near future
> never ceases to amaze me.

The article you just referenced said, "Solar can go in faster than
most people think!" When it is actually profitable to do so, you'll
see acres of solar go in every month here in the US. It will make your
head spin how fast we'll convert when it is profitable to do so.

>> way. The answer is the same as to why haven't they always built CPUs
>> as fast as they are today... it takes engineering and science, and
>
> Hardly a valid comparison.

Is so TOO!!! Kurzweil and Diamandis have both CPU power and
Photovoltaic cost on their "Law of Accelerating Returns" graphs.

> PV goes back to 1839, Si technology of
> 1955 with 1500 USD/Wp with 2% does not differ in its mode of function
> from mono Si of today with 17% and <1 USD/Wp. It's all a question
> of production efficiency and economy of scale.

Of course it is. What's your point?

> Interestingly, fuel cells also go back to 1838, and we still don't
> have affordable fuel cells for home and propulsion.

I've never seen fuel cells on a Kurzweil type presentation, so I don't
think it follows the same curves. (Could, but I've just never seen it)

Exponential curves are weird beasts... things don't work until they
work, and when they work, they work VERY well.

>> that takes time and builds on past successes.

Eugen... we'll just have to see if Ray and Peter are right about
solar... if they are, problem solved.... mostly. If I had a billion
dollars I'd be investing some in private desert property in Arizona
and southern California. That's gonna be much more valuable in ten
years!

-Kelly



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Apr 10 03:11:51 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2012 21:11:51 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Apr 9, 2012 at 4:06 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:08:35AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>> On Sun, Apr 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> > The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.
>>
>> It wasn't in Spain.
>
> Moral of the story: don't cut subsidies suddenly. It can kill
> the goose that will lay the golden eggs.

> Moral of the story: don't do it like Spain.

At least we agree on that. But I take the moral of the story to be,
Don't even start doing subsidies. Then you don't have to worry about
pulling the rug out from under your fake industry.

-Kelly


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Tue Apr 10 11:17:13 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 13:17:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6u8id94neSmjdKJ-dTLRjBUVJjXKNgS4xhdWVjkR=NaQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 10 April 2012 05:11, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

> At least we agree on that. But I take the moral of the story to be,
> Don't even start doing subsidies. Then you don't have to worry about
> pulling the rug out from under your fake industry.
>

In principle, I am pretty sure that subsidies *might* be a way to bootstrap
a paradigm shift out of a sub-optimal adaptative hole... :-)

It does not imply however that this was/is true for earth-based solar power.

I personally try to keep an open mind, some data and arguments and the
obvious thought devoted to the subject by Eugen made me pause, especially
given the fact that I am not eager to invest much time educating myself
with the details, but I cannot resist some degree of aesthetic and
philosophical hostility to earth-based solar in comparison, say, with
fusion reactors or space-based solar or deep geothermy or any such bolder
and more interesting bets.

While the sun is perfectly OK to dry oneself after a swim, or to operate
the lamp of a cabin in the wood, as far as the primary sources for the grid
and large-scale energy production are concerned no matter how efficient the
panels can be made, we would still be trying to squeeze the most of a
limited, low-temperature, diluted, discontinuous energy source. wasting
square meters with structures of dubious elegance and altering the albedo
of our planet.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com  Tue Apr 10 15:46:14 2012
From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 17:46:14 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6u8id94neSmjdKJ-dTLRjBUVJjXKNgS4xhdWVjkR=NaQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net>
 <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a6u8id94neSmjdKJ-dTLRjBUVJjXKNgS4xhdWVjkR=NaQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJUeD7jAFDErmvLieMuW03y_9Rv=j2ChfcTGHuyuFw9EtSCEnA@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/10 Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com>

>
> While the sun is perfectly OK to dry oneself after a swim, or to operate
> the lamp of a cabin in the wood, as far as the primary sources for the grid
> and large-scale energy production are concerned no matter how efficient the
> panels can be made, we would still be trying to squeeze the most of a
> limited, low-temperature, diluted, discontinuous energy source. wasting
> square meters with structures of dubious elegance and altering the albedo
> of our planet.
>
>
The dubious elegance of a solar panel, in my opinion, wins hands down over
the appearance of a nuclear plant's cooling tower (not to mention the
uranium mine! or how about the beauty of a drilling rig..), but it's a
subjective issue.
...while the albedo is not: the total electrical energy used by humanity is
1/7000th of the incoming solar energy from the sun, so even using 100%
solar power, the change is minuscole.
And with such low % of the incoming energy, the area is manageable:
existing roofs and structures are enough to collect all the required power.
For example, the 50GW italian consumption can be fed with 2800 km^2 of
panels, taking into account the current conversion efficiency and the total
day/night illumination cycle. That's about 1% of the total nation area,
less than the already built-up portion.

Alfio
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr 10 16:25:19 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 09:25:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6u8id94neSmjdKJ-dTLRjBUVJjXKNgS4xhdWVjkR=NaQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a6u8id94neSmjdKJ-dTLRjBUVJjXKNgS4xhdWVjkR=NaQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005201cd1736$85c49c20$914dd460$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj
.

>.While the sun is perfectly OK to dry oneself after a swim, or to operate
the lamp of a cabin in the wood, as far as the primary sources for the grid
and large-scale energy production are concerned no matter how efficient the
panels can be made, we would still be trying to squeeze the most of a
limited, low-temperature, diluted, discontinuous energy source. wasting
square meters with structures of dubious elegance and altering the albedo of
our planet.  -- Stefano Vaj

 

Solar has its limitations, but I see it being one of the major players.
Regardless of what we do, we must radically rethink how we use energy.
Currently the waste is absurd, and we do it just because we can.  In the
future we cannot.

 

spike

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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr 10 17:33:24 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 10:33:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] jack tramiel is dead
Message-ID: <007401cd1740$089c76f0$19d564d0$@att.net>

 

This was one of Robert Bradbury's friends:

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2012/04/09/computer-legend-and-gaming
-pioneer-jack-tramiel-dies-at-age-83/

 

RIP Jack.  The Vic-20 was the first personal computer I owned, although I
got one of the early Macs soon after, in 1984.  I did a lot of interesting
stuff on that little Vic20, even though it had no storage devices.  I had it
run a Mersenne Prime program.

 

spike

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From kryonica at gmail.com  Tue Apr 10 18:03:44 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 19:03:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Product B
Message-ID: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>

Anyone has some idea about Sierra Sciences Isagenix Product B "Telomere Support" supplement now marketed/recommended by Bill Andrews' Cure-aging-or-die-trying at http://www.sierrasci.com/? Would be great if they could at last come out with something that makes a real difference even if it is not the whole story....
His presentation in Florida in February this year is long but I enjoyed watching it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bmMv6dcsgE&list=UUB9UFIxyD9VUHjuNQzpLzeA&index=1&feature=plcp


From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Tue Apr 10 23:43:10 2012
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 16:43:10 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Product B
In-Reply-To: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

----- Original Message -----
> From: Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com>
> To: extrobritannia at yahoogroups.com; doctrinezero at googlegroups.com; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2012 11:03 AM
> Subject: [ExI] Product B
> 
> Anyone has some idea about Sierra Sciences Isagenix Product B "Telomere 
> Support" supplement now marketed/recommended by Bill Andrews' 
> Cure-aging-or-die-trying at http://www.sierrasci.com/? Would be great if they 
> could at last come out with something that makes a real difference even if it is 
> not the whole story....


This reminds me of when Rafal and I had our debate a few years back when I was doing my oral exams on telomeres and telomerase. My position was that shortened telomeres contributed directly to aging in addition to reactive oxygen species, Rafal's position was that they were merely a symptom and aging was entirely caused by oxidative damage to DNA, protiens, lipids, etc. I don't know if Rafal has changed his position over the years, but I still think they play a role. The lesson here is that experts disagree on the importance of telomere length in aging and how it differs between species. For example in in mice they?seem to be?less relevant.

That being said, think carefully about what Product B is. It is a mixture of *antioxidants*, the same ones that are sold separately?at Walmart, only combined into one product with the word *telomere* all over its advertising brochures. Now you figure out a way to activae

I am all for antioxidants. I am just against paying a premium for them.


Stuart LaForge
?
"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides. 



From kryonica at gmail.com  Wed Apr 11 07:26:04 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 08:26:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Product B
In-Reply-To: <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
 <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>


On 11 Apr 2012, at 00:43, The Avantguardian wrote:

> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com>
>> To: extrobritannia at yahoogroups.com; doctrinezero at googlegroups.com; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>> Cc: 
>> Sent: Tuesday, April 10, 2012 11:03 AM
>> Subject: [ExI] Product B
>> 
>> Anyone has some idea about Sierra Sciences Isagenix Product B "Telomere 
>> Support" supplement now marketed/recommended by Bill Andrews' 
>> Cure-aging-or-die-trying at http://www.sierrasci.com/? Would be great if they 
>> could at last come out with something that makes a real difference even if it is 
>> not the whole story....
> 
> 
> This reminds me of when Rafal and I had our debate a few years back when I was doing my oral exams on telomeres and telomerase. My position was that shortened telomeres contributed directly to aging in addition to reactive oxygen species, Rafal's position was that they were merely a symptom and aging was entirely caused by oxidative damage to DNA, protiens, lipids, etc. I don't know if Rafal has changed his position over the years, but I still think they play a role. The lesson here is that experts disagree on the importance of telomere length in aging and how it differs between species. For example in in mice they seem to be less relevant.
> 
> That being said, think carefully about what Product B is. It is a mixture of *antioxidants*, the same ones that are sold separately at Walmart, only combined into one product with the word *telomere* all over its advertising brochures. Now you figure out a way to activae
> 
> I am all for antioxidants. I am just against paying a premium for them.
> 
> 
> Stuart LaForge
>  
> "The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides. 

In his video Andrews stresses that tests had shown that telomerase activators (he quoted the 3 products available, T65, Product B and one other) decrease the proportion of short telomeres in only a few months.  The conclusion he draws is that the telomeres are shortened at a slower pace, and therefore that teleomerase "activator is actually doing its job by protecting cells during cell division from shortening their telomeres.  The mechanism is allegedly that telomerase activator activates telomerase and that consequently telomerase adds a telomere to the chromosome during or after cell division to replace the one lost in cell division.  And so the cell can divide without shortening.  If this is true, then one's next question is : does preserving telomere length on chromosome keep one biologically younger?  Most likely is that telomere length is just ONE aspect of ageing.  And actually Andrews says that but he does stress that it is an important one;  so he takes his Product B.
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Apr 11 08:42:59 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 09:42:59 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Product B
In-Reply-To: <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
 <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg11pi4ohSsdCczDv3C8eYyLwE9cDK4NiYQzerJio+FYw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 8:26 AM, Kryonica  wrote:
> In his video Andrews stresses that tests had shown that telomerase activators (he quoted the 3 products
> available, T65, Product B and one other) decrease the proportion of short telomeres in only a few months.
>?The conclusion he draws is that the telomeres are shortened at a slower pace, and therefore that teleomerase
> "activator is actually doing its job by protecting cells during cell division from shortening their telomeres.
>?The mechanism is allegedly that telomerase activator activates telomerase and that consequently telomerase
> adds a telomere to the chromosome during or after cell division to replace the one lost in cell division.
> ?And so the cell can divide without shortening. ?If this is true, then one's next question is : does preserving
> telomere length on chromosome keep one biologically younger? ?Most likely is that telomere length is just
> ONE aspect of ageing. ?And actually Andrews says that but he does stress that it is an important one;
> ?so he takes his Product!
>

If you do a search, you find that Isagenix is a typical MLM organisation.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isagenix_International>
Isagenix International LLC is a multilevel marketing company which
sells products it says remove toxins and fat from the body.
i.e. weight loss, skin creams, diets, etc.etc.
And, of course, they want you to sign up so you too can become a
millionaire selling potions.

They are not illegal, but MLM companies have a severe image problem.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-level_marketing>
Multi-level marketing (MLM) is a marketing strategy in which the sales
force is compensated not only for sales they personally generate, but
also for the sales of others they recruit, creating a downline of
distributors and a hierarchy of multiple levels of compensation. Other
terms for MLM include pyramid selling, network marketing, and referral
marketing.
---------------

Their products will probably not damage you, except in your wallet.
(About 400 or 500 USD per month for the rest of your life).

After reading the pages and pages of carefully worded sales blurb and
enthusiastic testimonials, you find in the small print that all their
products include the standard disclaimer to avoid inspection by the
FDA.

"These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug
Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure
or prevent any disease."

Isagenix products have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug
Administration as the FDA does not pre-approve nutritional or dietary
supplements because they are regulated as foods (not drugs) under the
Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA) of 1994.[5] The
FDA does monitor manufacturing practices and labeling for compliance.
Isagenix does use products with an FDA GRAS (Generally Recognized As
Safe) certification if available.

and Associates selling the product are ordered that they
Cannot
    Make medical or curative claims
    Claim it reverses aging process
    Claim it lengthens telomeres
    Claim it induces telomerase (enzyme that can reverse telomeres shortening)
-------------------


I'd wait for some proper science reports before buying miracle vitamins.


BillK



From kryonica at gmail.com  Wed Apr 11 09:48:18 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 10:48:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Product B
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg11pi4ohSsdCczDv3C8eYyLwE9cDK4NiYQzerJio+FYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
 <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>
 <CAL_armg11pi4ohSsdCczDv3C8eYyLwE9cDK4NiYQzerJio+FYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <E1831477-9E6E-444D-B5E9-43BA67595DCE@gmail.com>


On 11 Apr 2012, at 09:42, BillK wrote:

> On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 8:26 AM, Kryonica  wrote:
>> In his video Andrews stresses that tests had shown that telomerase activators (he quoted the 3 products
>> available, T65, Product B and one other) decrease the proportion of short telomeres in only a few months.
>>  The conclusion he draws is that the telomeres are shortened at a slower pace, and therefore that teleomerase
>> "activator is actually doing its job by protecting cells during cell division from shortening their telomeres.
>>  The mechanism is allegedly that telomerase activator activates telomerase and that consequently telomerase
>> adds a telomere to the chromosome during or after cell division to replace the one lost in cell division.
>>  And so the cell can divide without shortening.  If this is true, then one's next question is : does preserving
>> telomere length on chromosome keep one biologically younger?  Most likely is that telomere length is just
>> ONE aspect of ageing.  And actually Andrews says that but he does stress that it is an important one;
>>  so he takes his Product!
>> 
> 
> If you do a search, you find that Isagenix is a typical MLM organisation.
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isagenix_International>
> Isagenix International LLC is a multilevel marketing company which
> sells products it says remove toxins and fat from the body.
> i.e. weight loss, skin creams, diets, etc.etc.
> And, of course, they want you to sign up so you too can become a
> millionaire selling potions.
> 
> They are not illegal, but MLM companies have a severe image problem.
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-level_marketing>
> Multi-level marketing (MLM) is a marketing strategy in which the sales
> force is compensated not only for sales they personally generate, but
> also for the sales of others they recruit, creating a downline of
> distributors and a hierarchy of multiple levels of compensation. Other
> terms for MLM include pyramid selling, network marketing, and referral
> marketing.
> ---------------
> 
> Their products will probably not damage you, except in your wallet.
> (About 400 or 500 USD per month for the rest of your life).
> 
> After reading the pages and pages of carefully worded sales blurb and
> enthusiastic testimonials, you find in the small print that all their
> products include the standard disclaimer to avoid inspection by the
> FDA.
> 
> "These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug
> Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure
> or prevent any disease."
> 
> Isagenix products have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug
> Administration as the FDA does not pre-approve nutritional or dietary
> supplements because they are regulated as foods (not drugs) under the
> Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA) of 1994.[5] The
> FDA does monitor manufacturing practices and labeling for compliance.
> Isagenix does use products with an FDA GRAS (Generally Recognized As
> Safe) certification if available.
> 
> and Associates selling the product are ordered that they
> Cannot
>    Make medical or curative claims
>    Claim it reverses aging process
>    Claim it lengthens telomeres
>    Claim it induces telomerase (enzyme that can reverse telomeres shortening)
> -------------------
> 
> 
> I'd wait for some proper science reports before buying miracle vitamins.
> 
> 
> BillK

What arose my interest is the research done by Sierra Sciences.  They are not the same company as Isagenix.  Now I realise that Sierra Sciences have teamed up with Isagenix in order to market the product of their research and thereby raise funding for more research.  The fact that Sierra Sciences has teamed up with Isagenix says nothing really about other Isagenix products.  As far as I can tell Isagenix is just another company selling "life-extending anti-oxidants" that your greengrocer will sell you at a better price.  This does it disqualify Product B as such.  Product B could after all have been endorsed and marketed by another company, LEF for instance.   It may have been unwise to team up with Isagenix to market this product, but I don't think one can blame any R&D to look for ways of funding, above all today when there is still so little funding into anti-ageing products.  Product B is not a vitamin, but an enzyme activator.  I have never taken "enzyme activators" before so I was wondering if anyone had some experience in "telomere length preservation" :-)
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Wed Apr 11 10:03:04 2012
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 03:03:04 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Product B
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
 <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com> 
Message-ID: <1334138584.26035.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

----- Original Message -----
> From: Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com>
> To: The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Wednesday, April 11, 2012 12:26 AM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Product B
> In his video Andrews stresses that tests had shown that telomerase activators 
> (he quoted the 3 products available, T65, Product B and one other) decrease the 
> proportion of short telomeres in only a few months.? The conclusion he draws is 
> that the telomeres are shortened at a slower pace, and therefore that 
> teleomerase "activator is actually doing its job by protecting cells during 
> cell division from shortening their telomeres.? The mechanism is allegedly that 
> telomerase activator activates telomerase and that consequently telomerase adds 
> a telomere to the chromosome during or after cell division to replace the one 
> lost in cell division.? And so the cell can divide without shortening.? If this 
> is true, then one's next question is : does preserving telomere length on 
> chromosome keep one biologically younger?? Most likely is that telomere length 
> is just ONE aspect of ageing.? And actually Andrews says that but he does stress 
> that it is an important one;? so he takes his Product B.

Actually the only product that has been tested is T65. He talked about *plans* to test Product B
?
Alright I finally found the time to look up the paper on T65:
?
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3045570/pdf/rej.2010.1085.pdf
?
?
The in vitro data on low to mid passage fetal cells (foreskin keritinocytes and lung fibroblasts) shows?significant telomerase activation but those are cells that are coming from very young subjects. The clinical data in fig 3.?is less exciting. In fig 3A, the average telomere length seems to have increased in some patients and decreased in others. So I can't draw much of a conclusion with regard to mean telomere length. Now the percentage of short (defined as less than 4kb) telomeres in fig 3B seems to show a more consistent effect, however?you need to be careful interpreting this. All you know is that patients taking the supplement seem to have the same average telomere lengths as people who did not but the minimum telomere length in patients that took the?supplement is longer.
?
There are two ways to interpret this data. One is that the supplement?selectively increases the telomere length only?in cells that have short telomeres.?The other way of interpreting it is that taking?the supplement *kills* cells with telomeres shorter than 4 kb, so all you get from the patient are average-lengthed telomeres. Looking?at their methods, I don't see any aspect of their protocol that could have controlled for the?"weeding out" of cells with short telomeres. Since I seem to recall that telomerase, which in humans interacts with a staggering array of other?proteins, is thought to be involved in apoptotic pathways for?"cellular suicide", this second explanation is certainly possible.
?
Too bad Sierra Biosciences?said they couldn't afford to hire me when I applied for a job there a couple of years ago, I might have been able to design an experiment to?rule out?that possibility. But then again, Dr. Andrew's staff wouldn't let me talk to the man personally. Of course negative results don't get grants, attract investors, or sell product.?See the?"medical research" thread for a good discussion of this phenemenon.
?
Since I am ranting anyway, allow me?a further?gripe about medical research as it is?practiced. In order to have a career in modern molecular biology, you must take one of the most compex systems?in existence i.e. the cell, choose?a single?gene/protein/molecule out of hundreds of thousands?and become the worlds foremost expert on that single gene by discovering something about that gene that nobody else knows. The problem this poses to the scientific understanding of the cell or?the entire organism?on a system level should be clear. You are never going to understand a car by studying a fan-belt for 20 years.
?
What is not so clear is that no matter how?mundane the gene you study is, let's say for example mucin, the key ingredient in snot, you are obliged by the system to hype, toot, and spin it as the end-all-be-all of genes.
?
Forget all those other genes! Fund my mucin?project because mucin is the most important gene in the human body! Fools, you would all?die without mucus!
?
And that sort of puffery makes some people feel dishonest.?????
?
?
Stuart LaForge


"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides. 



From scerir at alice.it  Wed Apr 11 11:30:31 2012
From: scerir at alice.it (scerir)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 13:30:31 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Sources of info on historical commodity prices
In-Reply-To: <1333831466.40896.YahooMailNeo@web132103.mail.ird.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.339.1333754933.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1333831466.40896.YahooMailNeo@web132103.mail.ird.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <6ECCA3D6F39449DF96E85C3B3AE1D8E2@PCserafino>

http://www.kitco.com/charts/

has historical charts & data for gold, silver, 
platinum, palladium, rhodium 



From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Apr 11 11:42:32 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 13:42:32 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
References: <00c401cd0de8$92b917f0$b82b47d0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <CAPy8RwYQVPX1pVpzo9OGquEsy4KE_7Au2OisQWPYLkKb=2F+uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409095124.GW28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F856E28.6010303@libero.it>

Il 09/04/2012 11:51, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Mon, Apr 09, 2012 at 01:06:53AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> 
>> You are right to a point. When the government unnaturally props up
>> renewables, it is a scam. When the marketplace needs renewables, then
>> it is not. One day, perhaps in the not too distant future according to
>> some very smart people, solar photovoltaics will be economically
>> competitive with coal. When it is, then it will no longer be a scam.
> 
> I don't understand the full intricacies of
> http://cleantechnica.com/2012/04/06/its-here-solar-renewable-grid-parity-or-better-in-californias-latest-renewable-power-auction/ 
> but it indicates that grid parity in California has happened,
> or is about to happen.

Just to add salt to the Californian wound:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/04/03/the-worlds-largest-solar-power-plant-goes-bankrupt

"The CEO of Solar Trust, Uwe T. Schmidt thought that the loan was "too
risky".  The Obama administration was willing to loan more than two
billion taxpayer dollars to a company who was unwilling to take that
kind of risk. The company's bankruptcy filings indicate they employed
only nine people.

This $2.1 billion loan guarantee would have been equivalent to more than
three Solyndra sized loans. Solar Trust is one of the companies Peter
Schweizer mentioned in his book Throw Them All Out who were offered or
received large Department of Energy loans or grants and also have ties
to President Obama. Schweizer notes in his book that Citigroup Global
Partners and Deutsche Bank have invested $6 billion in this project. "

How strange the subsides always turn out in the hands of "friends of the
friends". US, Italy, Germany. It is all the same.

Mirco


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Apr 11 14:51:54 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 07:51:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004701cd17f2$a3392c50$e9ab84f0$@att.net>

...
...

>>... Moral of the story: don't do it like Spain.

>... Don't even start doing subsidies. Then you don't have to worry about
pulling the rug out from under your fake industry. -Kelly
_______________________________________________

I have been listening and watching without saying much on this thread, the
silent PV revolution.  Ironic subject line: the PV revolution is anything
but silent.  It is being thrust to the front of the parade with great
fanfare, as if we expect, rather demand, that ground based solar be the
answer to all our problems.

I ask that we think hard and do calculations.  Solar is a good technology, a
clean way to gather the diffuse energy from the sun.  But it will not solve
every problem or meet every need.  We cause solar to look worse than it is
by over-subsidizing it, then when those subsidies run out, as they always
will eventually, the companies fail because they were not market-viable to
star with.  

We older guys have seen this all before, back in the 70s when it was hip to
have rooftop water heaters, and how industries were built around their
installation, then later industries grew around the removal of those
heaters.  That doesn't mean that rooftop solar water heaters are bad, in
fact they make more sense than rooftop PVs.  Now we are seeing all again:
subsidies for homeowners to install PVs, subsidies for the companies that
make them, ignoring the obvious fact that these solar manufacturing
companies are being started in the US in non-right to work states, places
where anyone with a lick of business sense knows the business has zero
chance of long term survival.

But if we look at it reasonably, PVs have their uses and can be economically
viable in the long run.  If one has a reasonable peak load user nearby, such
as lifting water from a deep aquifer, PV is economically viable now without
subsidy.  If we do the calculations reasonably, we can imagine ground based
PVs doing coal to liquid fuels, or other applications that would be tolerant
of intermittent power supply.

Of course I will always mention my drumbeat refrain: we are currently
absurdly wasteful, because energy has been plentiful.  From an engineering
perspective, finding more efficient uses of energy is interesting.

Summary: ground based PV is a contributor, not a savior.  Space based solar,
if we ever make that happen, is a contributor.  Coal to liquid fuels will be
a contributor.  Wind and falling water, smaller contributors.  Energy
efficiency will be an important contributor to our energy future.  As we
watch the PV industry collapse around us, keep in mind that we expected too
much from that one technology, and we chose to bet on it perhaps a bit too
enthusiastically.

spike



From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed Apr 11 19:14:53 2012
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 21:14:53 +0200
Subject: [ExI] The silent PV revolution
In-Reply-To: <004701cd17f2$a3392c50$e9ab84f0$@att.net>
References: <CAPy8RwY+CksBTbozJHSb1Rt32esE9StH_3Lfp+rLtjimE3F0Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120331183910.GP14482@leitl.org> <4F7D9335.7020400@libero.it>
 <008401cd1332$20e3b960$62ab2c20$@att.net> <4F7DB41B.7090502@libero.it>
 <CADDVf2KDHHjG7yUJP6JbUVtCiKjAtjfU8BT-CP2Lz=fsyfA=Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120406084008.GU14482@leitl.org> <4F81ABDA.1080201@libero.it>
 <20120408154951.GA31325@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbUgSMaZiM82JZ2Z-iVfj8DkKDY2B+VU+CsL_K2S7BOaQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120409100610.GX28282@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZoNrLEfPEAdOAkZfVBns-ihnZHiEqGBk0h4FEZ21_gVw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004701cd17f2$a3392c50$e9ab84f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F85D82D.6090901@libero.it>

Il 11/04/2012 16:51, spike ha scritto:

> Summary: ground based PV is a contributor, not a savior.  Space based solar,
> if we ever make that happen, is a contributor.  Coal to liquid fuels will be
> a contributor.  Wind and falling water, smaller contributors.  Energy
> efficiency will be an important contributor to our energy future.  As we
> watch the PV industry collapse around us, keep in mind that we expected too
> much from that one technology, and we chose to bet on it perhaps a bit too
> enthusiastically.

Agree with all, apart the "we choose to be..."
Someone else chose to  be enthusiast for us.

Mirco




From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Apr 11 19:07:30 2012
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 15:07:30 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Product B
In-Reply-To: <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>
References: <32E2555D-2A84-40A6-A8A9-7336034E8C19@gmail.com>
 <1334101390.31031.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <6EC15796-C3EE-4F70-8655-60B7C68BB881@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj01VFeUR8bRxEg1o+P6XcdHviUcRVdhYQs0+p5UssoZw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 3:26 AM, Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:

>> This reminds me of when Rafal and I had our debate a few years back when I was doing my oral exams on telomeres and telomerase. My position was that shortened telomeres contributed directly to aging in addition to reactive oxygen species, Rafal's position was that they were merely a symptom and aging was entirely caused by oxidative damage to DNA, protiens, lipids, etc. I don't know if Rafal has changed his position over the years, but I still think they play a role. The lesson here is that experts disagree on the importance of telomere length in aging and how it differs between species. For example in in mice they seem to be less relevant.

### A bit of clarification is in order: I believe that aging is caused
predominantly by mutational damage to DNA affecting both coding and
regulatory regions, and some of it is likely to be due to oxidative
processes. There is also a contribution from non-mutational damage to
DNA, i.e. epigenetic changes, perhaps also some adducts. Damage to
proteins and lipids is however mostly a symptom rather than a cause of
aging. And yes, I still think that telomeres are mostly a symptom as
well, or perhaps an internal damage meter whose output contributes to
a cell's decisions about its fate, such as senescence or apoptosis.

I haven't changed my opinion on this subject in a few years which
could be evidence of being right, or getting cognitively older.

A true cure for aging would most likely also lengthen telomeres but I
doubt that a reset of telomere length by directly activating
telomerase (without affecting the underlying coding and regulatory DNA
damage) would produce a prolongation of lifespan.

>> I am all for antioxidants. I am just against paying a premium for them.

### The situation with antioxidants is a bit tricky. I used to believe
that supplementation was a good idea but I changed my mind (so maybe I
am not yet mentally ossified). Antioxidants may require very specific
dosage, not all of them are actually beneficial, there is a lot of
noisy data published, and that's why I am not taking any antioxidant
supplements - although I do maintain a high intake by consuming
chocolate, daily.

Rafal



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Apr 11 23:04:37 2012
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 11 Apr 2012 19:04:37 -0400
Subject: [ExI] why teaching creationism is a lesser evil
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiV5u0EW+074xk8nfyrGinQXZVW-TnQiaQN8nhZCUU_YA@mail.gmail.com>

Cross-posted from another list:

On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 4:37 PM, Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com> wrote:
>
> Law allows creationism to be taught in Tenn. public schools
> Washington Post - ?1 hour ago?
>
> <http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/law-allows-creationism-to-be-taught-in-tenn-public-schools/2012/04/11/gIQAAjqxAT_story.html>

### Interesting how the article is trying to use the billy club of
"science" to bash two completely different sets of statements -
creationism, a religiously inspired denial of science, and climate
change skepticism, a scientific opposition to politicized
pseudoscience.

I am again reminded of the limitations of our minds and, much more so,
our social organizations. In a competitive environment, the truth has
a way of surviving and thriving which is why it's better to have a
chaotic, multicentric educational system that exposes some pupils to
intellectual garbage along with the truth rather than to have a
bureaucracy claiming to have a monopoly on truth - and predictably
failing to deliver, as evidenced by the mass brainwashing of children
along environmentalist, antihumanist lines in US government schools.

Rafal



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Apr 12 08:09:21 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 09:09:21 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
Message-ID: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>

If life evolved at just 25 different sites in the galaxy 10 billion
years ago, the combined ejecta from these places would now fill the
Milky Way.

<http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-amazing-trajectories-of-life-bearing-meteorites-from-earth>

The amazing trajectories of life-bearing meteorites from Earth
April 12, 2012

The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (10 km in
diameter, mass greater than 1 trillion tons) must have ejected
billions of tons of life-bearing meteorites into space. Now Kyoto
Sangyo University physicists have calculated this could have seeded
life in the solar system and even as far as Gliese 581.

The probability is almost 1 (close to certain) that our solar system
is visited by microorganisms that originated outside our solar system.
----------------------


BillK


From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com  Thu Apr 12 17:57:24 2012
From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:57:24 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJUeD7hCVUE=9gpjXmGypjDyjwJw13-Qcx6-f=wHfgfkmTMXjg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Apr 12, 2012 at 10:09 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> If life evolved at just 25 different sites in the galaxy 10 billion
> years ago, the combined ejecta from these places would now fill the
> Milky Way.
>
> <
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-amazing-trajectories-of-life-bearing-meteorites-from-earth
> >
>
> The amazing trajectories of life-bearing meteorites from Earth
> April 12, 2012
>
> The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (10 km in
> diameter, mass greater than 1 trillion tons) must have ejected
> billions of tons of life-bearing meteorites into space. Now Kyoto
> Sangyo University physicists have calculated this could have seeded
> life in the solar system and even as far as Gliese 581.
>
> The probability is almost 1 (close to certain) that our solar system
> is visited by microorganisms that originated outside our solar system.
>

The last sentence doesn't really follow from the rest.  Whatever the number
of rocks which have visited us from other planets, one has first to suppose
that those planets were filled with microorganisms to begin with.

Alfio
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Apr 12 18:07:01 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:07:01 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAJUeD7hCVUE=9gpjXmGypjDyjwJw13-Qcx6-f=wHfgfkmTMXjg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJUeD7hCVUE=9gpjXmGypjDyjwJw13-Qcx6-f=wHfgfkmTMXjg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgxSCMe23zH0OZRRh2V8V0d9B4MdqJGtBNBkLnB06LttQ@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/12 Alfio Puglisi wrote:
> The last sentence doesn't really follow from the rest. ?Whatever the number
> of rocks which have visited us from other planets, one has first to suppose
> that those planets were filled with microorganisms to begin with.
>
>

Yes, you have to assume that life appearing is not a one-off
occurrence on Earth alone.
But even then, earth life will almost certainly have dispersed to
other star systems.

The authors say in the abstract:
We also estimate the transfer velocity of the micro-organisms in the
interstellar space. In some assumptions, it could be estimated that,
if life has originated $10^{10}$\ years ago anywhere in our Galaxy as
theorized by Joseph and Schild (2010a, b), it will have since
propagated throughout our Galaxy and could have arrived on Earth by
4.6 billion years ago. Organisms disperse.
----------

BillK



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Apr 13 01:41:50 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:41:50 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgxSCMe23zH0OZRRh2V8V0d9B4MdqJGtBNBkLnB06LttQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJUeD7hCVUE=9gpjXmGypjDyjwJw13-Qcx6-f=wHfgfkmTMXjg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgxSCMe23zH0OZRRh2V8V0d9B4MdqJGtBNBkLnB06LttQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbYKRLn244BQxoV++wbOB31zSeyagqM5iKUPOfzUDdwYg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Apr 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 2012/4/12 Alfio Puglisi wrote:
>> The last sentence doesn't really follow from the rest. ?Whatever the number
>> of rocks which have visited us from other planets, one has first to suppose
>> that those planets were filled with microorganisms to begin with.
>
> Yes, you have to assume that life appearing is not a one-off
> occurrence on Earth alone.

And we just don't know... It will take us a long time to get farther
out than the 65,000,000 year old rocks... and who is to say that such
events didn't happen 3.8 or 2.5 billion years ago as well, they
probably did. So we've basically got to outrace all rocks hurtling
away from our solar system for 4.0 billion years worth before we'll
have a solid clue as to whether earth was the main source of life.

The really bad news here is that this makes alien microbes potentially
far more dangerous than if they were a completely separately evolved
phenomena, as they will have just enough in common with us to be
potentially hazardous.

> But even then, earth life will almost certainly have dispersed to
> other star systems.

This seems highly likely, and more so with each new study along these lines.

> The authors say in the abstract:
> We also estimate the transfer velocity of the micro-organisms in the
> interstellar space. In some assumptions, it could be estimated that,
> if life has originated $10^{10}$\ years ago anywhere in our Galaxy as
> theorized by Joseph and Schild (2010a, b), it will have since
> propagated throughout our Galaxy and could have arrived on Earth by
> 4.6 billion years ago. Organisms disperse.

One interesting side effect of this kind of information is that even
if some kind of molecular replicator evolved on earth independently,
it seems likely that any life form that could survive the trip from
another planet would likely be made of stronger stuff than the locally
evolved life. This would tend to indicate that even if non-DNA life
forms evolved in places that would be friendly to DNA based life, that
DNA based life landing there would likely out compete the local
alternative. (This assumes that DNA is the biggest bad ass out
there...)

Likewise, should we develop silicon based artificial life capable of
the same sort of trip, it might wipe out DNA based life throughout the
galaxy wherever it landed. Artificial life seems likely to be more
durable and bad ass than DNA. So, should artificial life be generated
on earth or anywhere else, it seems like the long term outlook for all
organic life is dim.

I think that is is likely that DNA based life originated on earth. I
also find it plausible that whatever arose here on its own got killed
or assimilated by alien invaders. So maybe Hollywood got it right
after all, scary.

>From the article a few weeks ago, it seems like prokaryotic life is
far more likely to survive outer space than eukaryotic life... so it
could be that eukaryotic life is rather rarer out there (even if
seeded by us).

It's all fascinating stuff. The big unanswered question is whether
life originates spontaneously anywhere that the conditions are
favorable... This is a question that might remain unanswered for a
very long time. I think we'll have to explore quite a bit of the
galaxy before we can really answer the question.

For me, the best evidence for galactic seeding of the early earth is
how very quickly life evolved after the earth cooled to the point that
it could sustain life at all. The best estimates are 100,000,000 years
or so... and if you look at entropic curves throughout history, this
is kind of the great outlying piece of data. The development of
prokaryotic life so suddenly just doesn't seem like it belongs on the
same Law of Accelerating returns curve as everything else that's
happened before and since, that we know about. So if, like me, you
really think Kurzweil and company are really onto something that is
basic physics, you are somewhat forced to take intergalactic
panspermia with a little more seriousness than just laughing it off as
pure nonsense.

I know I have argued against it before here... and those were
relatively good arguments too... but this new data I think bolsters
the panspermia argument.

-Kelly



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Apr 13 01:59:03 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 19:59:03 -0600
Subject: [ExI] why teaching creationism is a lesser evil
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiV5u0EW+074xk8nfyrGinQXZVW-TnQiaQN8nhZCUU_YA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiV5u0EW+074xk8nfyrGinQXZVW-TnQiaQN8nhZCUU_YA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwajgQ390EM_uoSj7FjqBeuLq7351jYCpMY8kKTpU4npxg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 5:04 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki
<rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
> Cross-posted from another list:
>
> On Wed, Apr 11, 2012 at 4:37 PM, Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com> wrote:
>>
>> Law allows creationism to be taught in Tenn. public schools
>> Washington Post - ?1 hour ago?
>>
>> <http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/law-allows-creationism-to-be-taught-in-tenn-public-schools/2012/04/11/gIQAAjqxAT_story.html>
>
> ### Interesting how the article is trying to use the billy club of
> "science" to bash two completely different sets of statements -
> creationism, a religiously inspired denial of science, and climate
> change skepticism, a scientific opposition to politicized
> pseudoscience.
>
> I am again reminded of the limitations of our minds and, much more so,
> our social organizations. In a competitive environment, the truth has
> a way of surviving and thriving which is why it's better to have a
> chaotic, multicentric educational system that exposes some pupils to
> intellectual garbage along with the truth rather than to have a
> bureaucracy claiming to have a monopoly on truth - and predictably
> failing to deliver, as evidenced by the mass brainwashing of children
> along environmentalist, antihumanist lines in US government schools.

The amount of ignorance along these lines is astonishing. Take a look
for example at this lovely piece of reporting...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/scientists-find-link-between-dinosaurs-and-birds-051/2012/04/12/gIQAuRCQDT_video.html

The video says that these Argentinian paleontologists have found the
"missing link" between dinosaurs and birds. And I'm just scratching my
head and saying what link between dinosaurs and birds was "missing"!!!
AAaargh. This is just one additional piece of evidence to add to the
hundreds of pieces of evidence that ALREADY have been discovered!!!

This would have been a valid headline in the 1850s when they found the
first archeopteryx.

So, if teaching creationism in school gets evolution taught too... as
opposed to nothing being taught now (apparently) then go for it.
Putting the two ideas head to head can't be too awful for science, can
it?

I'm also really disturbed by the mash-up of climate denial and
evolution denial. Denial of human caused climate change is the
political equivalent of holocaust denial... but scientifically, I
don't think they compare at all.

-Kelly



From natasha at natasha.cc  Fri Apr 13 03:00:47 2012
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2012 22:00:47 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Affordance Theory
Message-ID: <008c01cd1921$a0489960$e0d9cc20$@cc>

Is anyone familiar with Affordance Theory (Gibson 1986). I am applying it to
the environment of life expansion (life extension + whole brain emulation).
It is an interesting theory used in the design discipline
(engineering/industrial design/design) and provides an locus for perceiving
what could be before us, whether known or unknown, as a relationship between
the actor (human in my thesis) and technology (such as HCI) as the prospect
of being afforded (*not* in a monetary sense, but in relation to melioristic
aims).

 

Thanks,

 

Natasha

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More
Chairman, Humanity+ 

ExDir, Design ESM <emerging / speculative media>

PhD Researcher, Univ. of Plymouth, UK



Editor, The Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary 
Essays on the Science, Technology and Philosophy of the Human Future

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Apr 13 10:14:04 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 13 Apr 2012 12:14:04 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>

? wasn't too convinced by the paper because it mostly counted rocks 
rather than cells. The authors were much more interested in how many 
pebbles could get from point A to B than what was in them.

Let's assume 90 kg/m^2 of biomass (double a tropical forest; I am 
assuming just as much biomass in the lithoautotropic ecosystem as on the 
surface to be optimistic). They suggest that ejecta amounting to 30% of 
mass of the impactor (sounds *very* optimistic!). So some 
0.3*pi*5000^2*90=2.1e9 kg of biomass ends up in space (5000 from the 
radius of the impact site). The ejected total mass is 3*10^14 kg, so the 
fraction that is biomass is 7e-6 - that would indeed allow a few hundred 
million bacteria on each 1 cm pebble.

However, much of this material will be subjected to denaturating 
temperatures (it was a 96 teraton explosion), and worse, the 
distribution of cells is uneven: the vast majority of material will be 
from deep crust and the impactor itself, both which are likely 
cell-free. I don't think anybody knows how to calculate the denaturating 
effects, but they are likely severe. The uneven distribution on the 
other hand might be roughly approximated: if we assume the ejecta is an 
equal mix of impactor and the same volume of Earth, that only the top 
kilometer of rock is life-bearing, and that pebbles keep together, the 
fraction of ejecta that is from the life layer is (pi*5000^2*1000) / 
(4*pi*5000^3/3)=0.15 - just 15% of the pebbles will have cells, the rest 
are from impactors or deep crust.

I certainly cannot rule out panspermia this way; life can be amazingly 
hardy, and it is enough to just get a few cells into a survivable 
environment for them to spread. But I suspect the denaturation of impact 
is a massive factor that reduces the viability of launched pebbles even 
before they are subjected to space conditions. If the denaturation 
reduces the number of viable pebbles by just two orders of magnitude 
(which sounds eminently likely), then a thousand pebbles reaching Gliese 
581 will not transfer life. The numbers within the solar system still 
seem to be high enough to allow transfer (and KT was just one recent big 
impact), so if it is possible I expect local panspermia to have occurred.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Apr 13 13:50:08 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 13 Apr 2012 06:50:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] nork launch
Message-ID: <000301cd197c$5753ef10$05fbcd30$@att.net>


Are we free to identify the public mechanical failure yesterday by North
Korea a three-stooge rocket?



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Apr  2 09:19:12 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 02 Apr 2012 11:19:12 +0200
Subject: [ExI] China to Own the Moon by 2027
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8Rwa3LveZikL29M0cnb2cmo7j98vPt1z_shzrPoC14poAWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120402063120.GG14482@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNTfDd2KnM8rp6_8caJrjdx3qvz0sF+xdCCbUnJ8Kc1NgQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F796F10.8080709@aleph.se>

On 02/04/2012 09:32, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 1, 2012 at 11:31 PM, Eugen Leitl<eugen at leitl.org>  wrote:
>>
>> There's the only way to claim land: ability to defend it. I don't
>> see how can any state attempt to claim the whole of the Moon, if anything,
>> it would be some strategic locations (area at the poles, some mineral
>> deposits, etc).
> Set up guns.  (Railguns, possibly.)  Shoot anything that gets too close.
> As expensive as it is to send things up now, requiring armor - or
> powerful enough engines to dodge - would make it far more expensive.
> If you claim the entire Moon, you don't have to worry about whether
> anything incoming is going to land in your part or not.

It is not the moon end where force is relevant, it is in near Earth 
orbit and launch/reentry. A moonbase is nothing if it cannot get 
supplies or deliver whatever valuable is there down to Earth. Things in 
the stratosphere and low orbit can be hit (as demonstrated by the 
Chinese, and implicit in the ABM system). The problem is that defense is 
hard while offense is easy: armor is not feasible when you have to 
struggle against the rocket equation or re-entry aerodynamics, and 
anything at orbital velocity is already nearly a railgun bullet.

My guess is that any attempt at owning the moon requires having *all* 
powers able to wreck your expensive space infrastructure agree that it 
is OK.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri Apr 13 18:35:07 2012
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 13 Apr 2012 11:35:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] nork launch
In-Reply-To: <000301cd197c$5753ef10$05fbcd30$@att.net>
References: <000301cd197c$5753ef10$05fbcd30$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy0rBfcBGeeJjTVtucmDFQc2-sAQmfWUyVVba3+rH06D+g@mail.gmail.com>

I wonder what will befall the engineers and scientists who worked on the
project?  I shudder to think...


John
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 02:01:10 2012
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Fri, 13 Apr 2012 19:01:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>

http://hplusmagazine.com/2012/04/12/transhumanism-and-the-human-expansion-into-space-a-conflict-with-physics/

But you might want to comment

Keith


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 05:42:46 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 06:42:46 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 3:01 AM, Keith Henson  wrote:
> http://hplusmagazine.com/2012/04/12/transhumanism-and-the-human-expansion-into-space-a-conflict-with-physics/
>
>

The difficulty with speculating about the future is that there are
lots of alternatives continuously branching off. Speculating is also
about persuading people which future path to choose as well as what
paths are physically possible.

I can't see AI communities choosing to live in the deep ocean, so that
may be a further limitation on size.
I doubt whether scaling up human equivalents is useful. These AIs
probably think in a very different fashion to humans. e.g. look at the
way Watson is developing. A million times speedup AI will probably not
consist of 100,000 speeded up human parts. But rather one AI which is
as powerful as 100,000 humans. Human individuality is probably going
to be lost as we upload and merge into computronium.

The social interactions will be complicated as this starts to become
possible. Will all the scientists enter computronium first leaving
behind the human couch potatoes?  Or will virtual realities entice the
couch potatoes first, leaving scientists behind?

We live in interesting times (to quote the Chinese proverb).

BillK


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sat Apr 14 16:29:31 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:29:31 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>

On Fri, 13 Apr 2012, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> ? wasn't too convinced by the paper because it mostly counted rocks rather
> than cells. The authors were much more interested in how many pebbles could
> get from point A to B than what was in them.
> 
> Let's assume 90 kg/m^2 of biomass (double a tropical forest; I am assuming
> just as much biomass in the lithoautotropic ecosystem as on the surface to be
> optimistic). They suggest that ejecta amounting to 30% of mass of the impactor
> (sounds *very* optimistic!). So some 0.3*pi*5000^2*90=2.1e9 kg of biomass ends
> up in space (5000 from the radius of the impact site). The ejected total mass
> is 3*10^14 kg, so the fraction that is biomass is 7e-6 - that would indeed
> allow a few hundred million bacteria on each 1 cm pebble.
> 
> However, much of this material will be subjected to denaturating temperatures
> (it was a 96 teraton explosion), and worse, the distribution of cells is
> uneven: the vast majority of material will be from deep crust and the impactor
> itself, both which are likely cell-free. I don't think anybody knows how to
> calculate the denaturating effects, but they are likely severe. The uneven
> distribution on the other hand might be roughly approximated: if we assume the
> ejecta is an equal mix of impactor and the same volume of Earth, that only the
> top kilometer of rock is life-bearing, and that pebbles keep together, the
> fraction of ejecta that is from the life layer is (pi*5000^2*1000) /
> (4*pi*5000^3/3)=0.15 - just 15% of the pebbles will have cells, the rest are
> from impactors or deep crust.
> 
> I certainly cannot rule out panspermia this way; life can be amazingly hardy,
> and it is enough to just get a few cells into a survivable environment for
> them to spread. But I suspect the denaturation of impact is a massive factor
> that reduces the viability of launched pebbles even before they are subjected
> to space conditions. If the denaturation reduces the number of viable pebbles
> by just two orders of magnitude (which sounds eminently likely), then a
> thousand pebbles reaching Gliese 581 will not transfer life. The numbers
> within the solar system still seem to be high enough to allow transfer (and KT
> was just one recent big impact), so if it is possible I expect local
> panspermia to have occurred.

I was thinking of the other end of this "pan-sperm adventures", i.e. 
landing on a remote body. Escape velocity for Solar System is 525 km/s. 
This is how fast - at a minimum - an ejecta will have to go to make it 
anywhere.

One can play with impact effect calculator, here:

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

to see how hard (or maybe easy) actually it is going to be for any life to 
survive an impact with Earth-like planet. I assume if I could got burned 
alive standing at 100 km distance from impact of 1km-radius iron body 
running at 525 kmps, the effect is like quite a big nuclear weapon blast. 
How much life survived at test epicenters? Without looking for data, I 
guesstimate everything close to impact will get sterilized.

So much about naturally happening panspermia.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sat Apr 14 16:49:20 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:49:20 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141843210.23099@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sat, 14 Apr 2012, Tomasz Rola wrote:

> I was thinking of the other end of this "pan-sperm adventures", i.e. 
> landing on a remote body. Escape velocity for Solar System is 525 km/s. 
> This is how fast - at a minimum - an ejecta will have to go to make it 
> anywhere.
> 
> One can play with impact effect calculator, here:
> 
> http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/
> 
> to see how hard (or maybe easy) actually it is going to be for any life to 
> survive an impact with Earth-like planet. I assume if I could got burned 
> alive standing at 100 km distance from impact of 1km-radius iron body 
> running at 525 kmps, the effect is like quite a big nuclear weapon blast. 
> How much life survived at test epicenters? Without looking for data, I 
> guesstimate everything close to impact will get sterilized.

It is no better with smaller objects, which evaporate during atmospheric 
entry. Again, I assume temperature alone is enough to get rid of a life 
problem. Deceleration is going to improve this, I think.

Add to this millions of years it takes to get somewhere inside 20ly 
radius. All those years ejecta is subject to all kind of radiation - full 
spectra, actually, including possibility of supernova during such a long 
time.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 17:03:49 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:03:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141843210.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141843210.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjCMMPODuF9VfyriKTLuZHqOedvm4uPAO4rZArvB3frKg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 5:49 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> It is no better with smaller objects, which evaporate during atmospheric
> entry. Again, I assume temperature alone is enough to get rid of a life
> problem. Deceleration is going to improve this, I think.
>
> Add to this millions of years it takes to get somewhere inside 20ly
> radius. All those years ejecta is subject to all kind of radiation - full
> spectra, actually, including possibility of supernova during such a long
> time.
>
>

They are talking about microorganisms and I think you underestimate
how tough they are.
See:
<http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2010/08/the-x-files-dept-microbes-survive-yearandahalf-in-outer-space.html>
Quote:
In a separate experiment, another team ran computer models of giant
impacts like Chicxulub. In the simulations, millions of large boulders
were ejected from the earth. About 30 boulders from each Earth impact
even reached Titan, and they entered Titan?s atmosphere slower than
most meteors hit Earth?s atmosphere. Big rocks from Earth have no
doubt reached Enceladus, as well.

?That kind of entry should be no problem,? agreed Allan Treiman of the
Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, quoted in New Scientist.
Bacteria were found in wreckage of the shuttle Columbia when it
re-entered Earth?s atmosphere in 2003. And Earthly lichen survived
when exposed to the harsh environment of space.
-------------

Also
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microorganism>


BillK



From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 16:50:15 2012
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:50:15 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>

>  Escape velocity for Solar System is 525 km/s. This is how fast - at a
minim

Not true. More than 10 times less.

Still I agree with what are you saying.
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 17:32:24 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:32:24 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/14 Tomaz Kristan wrote:
>>? Escape velocity for Solar System is 525 km/s.?This is how fast - at a
>> minim
>
> Not true. More than 10 times less.
>
> Still I agree with what are you saying.
>
>

You need to correct Wikipedia then.   ;)
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity>


BillK



From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 17:43:53 2012
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 19:43:53 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>

>
> > You need to correct Wikipedia then.   ;)
>

Don't trust Wikipedia too much.

The velocity of the Pioneer probes was several tens of km per second.

The escape velocity from the distance of Earth's orbit out of the Solar
system is about 17 km/s.

Virtually everybody should know that. Especially people discussing here.
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 17:56:34 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 18:56:34 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/14 Tomaz Kristan wrote:
> The velocity of the?Pioneer probes was several tens of km per second.
>
> The escape velocity from the distance of Earth's orbit out of the Solar
> system is about 17 km/s.
>
> Virtually everybody should know that. Especially people discussing here.
>
>

:)  Escape velocity depends on what you are escaping from.

in the Solar System, to escape from the Milky Way's gravity:   	? 525 km/s

Pioneer was 'just' escaping from the solar system.

To leave planet Earth, an escape velocity of 11.2 km/s (approx. 40,320
km/h, or 25,000 mph) is required; however, a speed of 42.1 km/s is
required to escape the Sun's gravity (and exit the Solar System) from
the same position.


BillK



From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 18:19:52 2012
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 20:19:52 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFR0xQSrPYv9cTpMbwFDoUXsDzOj-vJ=nVsMj+pjqX_i5g@mail.gmail.com>

We want rocks to escape from the Solar system to seed life around in other
solar systems, don't we?

What the escape from the Galaxy has to do here?

One should never confuse the solar systems and galaxies!
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 20:21:14 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 14:21:14 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Apr 13, 2012 at 4:14 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> However, much of this material will be subjected to denaturating
> temperatures (it was a 96 teraton explosion), and worse, the distribution of
> cells is uneven: the vast majority of material will be from deep crust and
> the impactor itself, both which are likely cell-free.

Anders, while I agree with you that the impact itself would probably
kill a lot of bacteria, microbes are in the rocks a considerable
distance down. Estimates range from 3km at a low (they actually found
stuff at 1.6 miles) to a high of 7km where it would be too hot even
for the most heat loving bacteria we know of. (I wouldn't be surprised
if life surprised us by living deeper than we currently think of as
possible, by the way... as Micheal Crichton said, "Life will find a
way"...)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endolith
http://microbewiki.kenyon.edu/index.php/Deep_subsurface_microbes

Some theorists believe this is where life first evolved, in fact. Many
of these microbes have exceptionally slow metabolism, dividing as
little as once per century! They seem therefore very apt to be able to
survive in outer space.

I don't know how deep the crater was... was it over 7 km deep?

In addition to that, if you look at surviving rock from nuclear test
sites, what you find that while there is a core of silica glass near
the impact/explosion zone, that further out you get shocked quartz...
the closer it is to the blast, the more "shocked" it is. One page I
read indicated that shocked quartz is an indication of lots of
pressure, but not as much heat as you might imagine. Think about heat
transferrence through rock... it takes time... we're talking something
that happened in a matter of seconds or a few minutes at most... And
while there was a huge heating effect globally because some rocks were
super heated, many rocks further from the blast zone would not be.

In fact, I hypothesize (without factual basis) that you might even get
some rocks that would be encased with a little bit of a glass or
melted layer, providing further protection for any microbes further
inside a stone.

> I don't think anybody
> knows how to calculate the denaturating effects, but they are likely severe.

Undoubtedly, but we have recently learned that they can withstand
20,000 Gs of shock, which is rather amazing! I would bet if you were
to look back in the atomic underground testing data, you could find
data on the survival of microorganisms, though I don't know if they
knew to look for bugs in rock back then.... so maybe not.

> The uneven distribution on the other hand might be roughly approximated: if
> we assume the ejecta is an equal mix of impactor and the same volume of
> Earth, that only the top kilometer of rock is life-bearing, and that pebbles
> keep together, the fraction of ejecta that is from the life layer is
> (pi*5000^2*1000) / (4*pi*5000^3/3)=0.15 - just 15% of the pebbles will have
> cells, the rest are from impactors or deep crust.

The top kilometer should be increased to at least three for your
computation here Anders.

> I certainly cannot rule out panspermia this way; life can be amazingly
> hardy, and it is enough to just get a few cells into a survivable
> environment for them to spread. But I suspect the denaturation of impact is
> a massive factor that reduces the viability of launched pebbles even before
> they are subjected to space conditions. If the denaturation reduces the
> number of viable pebbles by just two orders of magnitude (which sounds
> eminently likely), then a thousand pebbles reaching Gliese 581 will not
> transfer life. The numbers within the solar system still seem to be high
> enough to allow transfer (and KT was just one recent big impact), so if it
> is possible I expect local panspermia to have occurred.

I heard on the radio (Michio Kaku) that Kepler scientists now believe
there is one earth like planet for about every 200 stars... another
element of the equation reduces to scientific knowledge, or at least a
well educated guess.

-Kelly


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sat Apr 14 21:00:16 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 23:00:16 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204142233510.23099@tau.ceti.pl>

> On Sat, 14 Apr 2012, BillK wrote:

> > 2012/4/14 Tomaz Kristan wrote: The velocity of the?Pioneer probes was 
> > several tens of km per second.
>> 
> > The escape velocity from the distance of Earth's orbit out of the 
> > Solar system is about 17 km/s.
> >
> > Virtually everybody should know that. Especially people discussing 
> > here.

Knowing is silver but learning is golden :-).


> :)  Escape velocity depends on what you are escaping from.

> in the Solar System, to escape from the Milky Way's gravity:  >= 525 km/s

> Pioneer was 'just' escaping from the solar system.

> To leave planet Earth, an escape velocity of 11.2 km/s (approx. 40,320
> km/h, or 25,000 mph) is required; however, a speed of 42.1 km/s is
> required to escape the Sun's gravity (and exit the Solar System) from
> the same position.

Yup, you guys are right. I misread the table from the very same wikipage. 
The right one is on the right.

Trying to go there by another means:

[4]> (defconstant +Big-G+ 6.67384L-11 "m^3 * kg^-1 * s^-2")
+BIG-G+
[5]> (defconstant +M-Sun+ 1.9891L30 "kg")
+M-SUN+
[6]> (defconstant +r-Sun-Earth+ 1.496L11 "m")
+R-SUN-EARTH+

[9]> (defun Vesc (m r) (sqrt (/ (* 2 +Big-G+ m) r)))
VESC

[10]> (Vesc +m-sun+ +r-sun-earth+)
42127.472624554873963L0

That's in m/s - success! 42 km/s!!

Applying this to the impact calculator doesn't change much, however. A 1km 
piece of ice falling down at 42km/s is going to burn me alive anyway.

Ten times slower speed required only means ten times longer exposure to 
life killing factors.

The escape velocity gets lower and lower, the farther from the Sun we talk 
about. If we assume total mass of Solar System to be 2 Sun mass and agree 
it ends at the biggest proposed distance for Oort cloud (~ 1.87 ly), we 
get:

[11]> (defconstant +LYear+ 9.461L15 "m")
+LYEAR+

[12]> (Vesc (* 2 +m-sun+) (* 1.87 +lyear+))
173.24347

Again, in m/s - a speed comparable to fastest cars. So, whatever gets this 
far is likely to be able to get away from the Sun, either directly or as 
side effect of relatively benign asteroid clashes.

So, it seems that indeed a big number of rocks can travel between the 
stars. The problem is, can they sustain life for a very long time periods.
Millions years, maybe billions. Everything can happen during such journey. 

Again, I don't think a natural panspermia is very likely to occur. And if 
it does, then it's on a very limited scale. Still, a nice idea to think 
about.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 21:07:50 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 15:07:50 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwb_4nEK+5=snZazPz5p-E2Tg90=ZD5AGB6QtGvoQBAUyA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Apr 13, 2012 at 11:42 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> I can't see AI communities choosing to live in the deep ocean, so that
> may be a further limitation on size.

I agree with the rest of your post, but why would you think we would
not choose to live in the deep ocean if we're in virtual reality
anyway? Seems like a pretty safe place to hide out, little radiation,
pretty stable heat and pressure, and what is the pressure going to
hurt? You could even power yourself off a geothermal vent and get off
of solar altogether.

Loved the rest, but this left me scratching my head wondering why you
would say this particular thing. After all, we talk about going into
outer space all the time...

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 21:15:41 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 15:15:41 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204142233510.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204142233510.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwb8z2Ox-k460pjTL5cBP5sbDLQ6GHVFd3NROGAZtLdWwA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 3:00 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
> Knowing is silver but learning is golden :-).

I'll second that one!!

> Applying this to the impact calculator doesn't change much, however. A 1km
> piece of ice falling down at 42km/s is going to burn me alive anyway.

Depends on how far away from you it hit, I suppose...

> Ten times slower speed required only means ten times longer exposure to
> life killing factors.

But there could be a sweet spot in there somewhere... Life might take
breaks along the way too... stop and reproduce on one rock before
progressing to the next...

> Again, in m/s - a speed comparable to fastest cars. So, whatever gets this
> far is likely to be able to get away from the Sun, either directly or as
> side effect of relatively benign asteroid clashes.

Even asteroid pass by could throw you out of the solar system... think
of a little rock rotating clockwise, and a bigger rock going
counterclockwise with a slightly larger radius. Upon crossing, the big
rock has a slightly more elliptical orbit, and the small rock is
ejected from the system entirely. No physical 'collision' is actually
necessary, just an encounter.

> So, it seems that indeed a big number of rocks can travel between the
> stars. The problem is, can they sustain life for a very long time periods.
> Millions years, maybe billions. Everything can happen during such journey.

Sure.

> Again, I don't think a natural panspermia is very likely to occur. And if
> it does, then it's on a very limited scale. Still, a nice idea to think
> about.

It would only have to happen once in a hundred million years for it to
be the source of life's blueprint... Deep time changes the probability
equations very much, making crazy seeming schemes like natural
selection and panspermia actually seem quite a bit less crazy.

-Kelly


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 21:26:46 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 22:26:46 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwb_4nEK+5=snZazPz5p-E2Tg90=ZD5AGB6QtGvoQBAUyA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8Rwb_4nEK+5=snZazPz5p-E2Tg90=ZD5AGB6QtGvoQBAUyA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi1ABvCUb_EW+mqoBzD8ZrkpOj9RfhKbf+ZtdrEO5566g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 10:07 PM, Kelly Anderson  wrote:
> I agree with the rest of your post, but why would you think we would
> not choose to live in the deep ocean if we're in virtual reality
> anyway? Seems like a pretty safe place to hide out, little radiation,
> pretty stable heat and pressure, and what is the pressure going to
> hurt? You could even power yourself off a geothermal vent and get off
> of solar altogether.
>
> Loved the rest, but this left me scratching my head wondering why you
> would say this particular thing. After all, we talk about going into
> outer space all the time...
>
>

That's the point. I can't see AIs shutting themselves away from the
rest of the universe.

Admittedly. the outside universe will appear nearly frozen due to
their mental speedup, but going to the bottom of the sea????
I just assumed they would want to see what was going on outside. Just
in case the sun went nova, or something.


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Sat Apr 14 17:43:56 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 19:43:56 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F89B75C.4040608@aleph.se>

On 2012-04-14 19:32, BillK wrote:
> 2012/4/14 Tomaz Kristan wrote:
>>>    Escape velocity for Solar System is 525 km/s. This is how fast - at a
>>> minim
>>
>> Not true. More than 10 times less.
>>
>> Still I agree with what are you saying.
>>
>>
>
> You need to correct Wikipedia then.   ;)
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity>

Yes, it needs to be corrected. The reference is to a paper talking about 
the escape velocity for stars from the Milky way, not the solar system.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From anders at aleph.se  Sat Apr 14 22:26:13 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:26:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>

An initial velocity of 42 km/s is no real guarantee it will be 
sterilized on impact. Remember that in space only relative velocity 
matters: an escaping rock might enter a solar system moving away from it 
in such a way that it loses plenty of velocity, and similarly for 
planets. I think there is a nice research paper in doing a Monte Carlo 
simulation of the velocity distributions here.

The survival of small impactor is a bit complicated. If I remember the 
literature right very small ones vaporize far up, likely burning all 
spores (they heat up in the very thin high atmosphere, where they are 
not strongly slowed). Larger impactors have a hot crust but reach denser 
lower atmosphere, where they reach terminal velocity and are even cooled 
by the surrounding air. Even larger impactors are subject to enough 
force that they can split apart, with fragments of different sizes and 
temperatures, some of which hit the ground and have fairly low 
temperatures. Even bigger "pancake" and explode - and then the biggest 
ones hit the ground.


On 2012-04-14 22:21, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Fri, Apr 13, 2012 at 4:14 AM, Anders Sandberg<anders at aleph.se>  wrote:
>> I don't think anybody
>> knows how to calculate the denaturating effects, but they are likely severe.
>
> Undoubtedly, but we have recently learned that they can withstand
> 20,000 Gs of shock, which is rather amazing!

Bacteria have been grown under 100,000 Gs. It is not the shock that is 
the problem. The problem is any temperature above (say) 200 degrees C.

A simple problem: a spherical granite pebble of radius R starts out with 
a core temperature ~300 K and a surface that is molten, ~1500 K. How 
long will it take for the core to become 500 K hot, and is this time 
shorter than the time it takes to cool the surface in a space 
environment down to around 300 K?

It is too late in my evening for me to try to solve the spherical heat 
equation for the initial value or with a Stefan law boundary 
condition... but it might be fun when I am awake.

But let's assume the temperature gradient is linear. Then the heat flux 
is F=k*delta T/R Watts, where k is the thermal conductivity of granite 
(1.7-4.0 W/mK) and delta T is the temperature difference between core 
and surface. The core will heat up as F/CM, where C is the heat capacity 
of granite, 790 J/kg K and M is the mass of the core. Let's make it 
equal to a fourth of the volume, giving a mass M=pi*rho*R^3/3, with rho 
the granite density 2691 kg/m^3. Putting it all together, the initial 
heat flux will make the core temperature go up by 3*k*delta T/(C 
pi*rho*R^2) = (0.00107/R^2) Kelvin/s. If R=1e-2, a pebble, the 
temperature rise will be 10.7 degrees per second. So unless the pebble 
has cooled significantly in the first 20 seconds the core will be 
denaturated.

Now, how fast is radiative cooling of ejecta? I am too sleepy to solve 
that differential equation right now. But I bet it is slower than 20 
seconds.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Apr 14 22:34:53 2012
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2012 15:34:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4uC0M01bdzh3hxd8F0SFtpzWPrRnCJ+0N7_Lai4+vugg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 2:49 PM,  BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 10:07 PM, Kelly Anderson ?wrote:
>> I agree with the rest of your post, but why would you think we would
>> not choose to live in the deep ocean if we're in virtual reality
>> anyway? Seems like a pretty safe place to hide out, little radiation,
>> pretty stable heat and pressure, and what is the pressure going to
>> hurt? You could even power yourself off a geothermal vent and get off
>> of solar altogether.

Maybe, but I don't think you could harvist enough power to run the
community off geothermal.  Have to research this

>> Loved the rest, but this left me scratching my head wondering why you
>> would say this particular thing. After all, we talk about going into
>> outer space all the time...

The reason to put the hardware in the deep ocean is cooling  That's
related to latency because it becomes hard to cool a lot of closely
spaced heat generators.  It's hard to beat cold water for cooling.

Trying to do the same thing in space would result in a very spread out
radiator and much higher latency.  That is thinking and communication
would be much slower.
>
> That's the point. I can't see AIs shutting themselves away from the
> rest of the universe.

The community lives on Barsoom or whereever they want.  This just
taking about the hardware level.

> Admittedly. the outside universe will appear nearly frozen due to
> their mental speedup, but going to the bottom of the sea????
> I just assumed they would want to see what was going on outside. Just
> in case the sun went nova, or something.

If you want to access any web camera feed from anywhere, you can.

But for your specific example, what use would it be to know the sun went nova?

Keith



From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Apr 15 00:37:34 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 02:37:34 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwb8z2Ox-k460pjTL5cBP5sbDLQ6GHVFd3NROGAZtLdWwA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
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Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204150140100.23099@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sat, 14 Apr 2012, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 3:00 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
> 
> > Applying this to the impact calculator doesn't change much, however. A 1km
> > piece of ice falling down at 42km/s is going to burn me alive anyway.
> 
> Depends on how far away from you it hit, I suppose...

You can see it here:

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=100&distanceUnits=1&diam=1000&diameterUnits=1&pdens=1000&pdens_select=8000&vel=42.1&velocityUnits=1&theta=90&tdens=1000&wdepth=1000&wdepthUnits=1

I have placed "observer-me" at 100km distance from ground zero. I have 
tried to be good for impactor, by giving it a nice and soft place to land
(a 1000m deep water with rocky seabed).

> > Ten times slower speed required only means ten times longer exposure to
> > life killing factors.
> 
> But there could be a sweet spot in there somewhere... Life might take
> breaks along the way too... stop and reproduce on one rock before
> progressing to the next...

Well, not so much, I'm afraid. I agree that microorganisms are 
hard-to-kill bastards. OTOH, to reproduce they require some kind of 
friendly conditions, which, to my knowledge, don't include absolute zero 
temperature.

> > Again, in m/s - a speed comparable to fastest cars. So, whatever gets this
> > far is likely to be able to get away from the Sun, either directly or as
> > side effect of relatively benign asteroid clashes.
> 
> Even asteroid pass by could throw you out of the solar system... think
> of a little rock rotating clockwise, and a bigger rock going
> counterclockwise with a slightly larger radius. Upon crossing, the big
> rock has a slightly more elliptical orbit, and the small rock is
> ejected from the system entirely. No physical 'collision' is actually
> necessary, just an encounter.

Right.

> > Again, I don't think a natural panspermia is very likely to occur. And if
> > it does, then it's on a very limited scale. Still, a nice idea to think
> > about.
> 
> It would only have to happen once in a hundred million years for it to
> be the source of life's blueprint... Deep time changes the probability
> equations very much, making crazy seeming schemes like natural
> selection and panspermia actually seem quite a bit less crazy.

Ok, so let's see it from another end. Panspermia event could have happened 
many times and by probability, the most of ejecta ended in Solar System, 
including bodies we can more or less easily observe.

Yet, on all those bodies surveyed so far, even if they have been 
contaminated with life, during so many millions of years it didn't evolved 
into a form that would leave visible signs of existence... Such that we 
could recognise, that is.

Seems to me, if life can get away from this planet, it has hard time out 
there. Maybe some spores or similar forms survive intact, but their 
chances are dwindling as time goes by. It's like playing Russian roullette 
for millions years and they can fight entropy only by reproduction, which 
they cannot do in harsh environment.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 06:13:51 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:13:51 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
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 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwawujXiAcSfJFnnsJNeYnxyr1oC8W7iL4oiYN+TQ6PC=A@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 4:26 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> The survival of small impactor is a bit complicated. If I remember the
> literature right very small ones vaporize far up, likely burning all spores
> (they heat up in the very thin high atmosphere, where they are not strongly
> slowed). Larger impactors have a hot crust but reach denser lower
> atmosphere, where they reach terminal velocity and are even cooled by the
> surrounding air. Even larger impactors are subject to enough force that they
> can split apart, with fragments of different sizes and temperatures, some of
> which hit the ground and have fairly low temperatures. Even bigger "pancake"
> and explode - and then the biggest ones hit the ground.

It is even more complicated than that when you figure in iron vs rock,
but I would assume for purposes of this discussion we're only
interested in rock.

>> Undoubtedly, but we have recently learned that they can withstand
>> 20,000 Gs of shock, which is rather amazing!
>
> Bacteria have been grown under 100,000 Gs. It is not the shock that is the
> problem. The problem is any temperature above (say) 200 degrees C.

Ok, good enough.

> A simple problem: a spherical granite pebble of radius R starts out with a
> core temperature ~300 K and a surface that is molten, ~1500 K. How long will
> it take for the core to become 500 K hot, and is this time shorter than the
> time it takes to cool the surface in a space environment down to around 300
> K?

And why would we assume that the entire surface is molten? And how
thick would that molten layer be? Wouldn't it make a difference if a
lot of the surface was melted vs just a little bit?

> It is too late in my evening for me to try to solve the spherical heat
> equation for the initial value or with a Stefan law boundary condition...
> but it might be fun when I am awake.
>
> But let's assume the temperature gradient is linear. Then the heat flux is
> F=k*delta T/R Watts, where k is the thermal conductivity of granite (1.7-4.0
> W/mK) and delta T is the temperature difference between core and surface.
> The core will heat up as F/CM, where C is the heat capacity of granite, 790
> J/kg K and M is the mass of the core. Let's make it equal to a fourth of the
> volume, giving a mass M=pi*rho*R^3/3, with rho the granite density 2691
> kg/m^3. Putting it all together, the initial heat flux will make the core
> temperature go up by 3*k*delta T/(C pi*rho*R^2) = (0.00107/R^2) Kelvin/s. If
> R=1e-2, a pebble, the temperature rise will be 10.7 degrees per second. So
> unless the pebble has cooled significantly in the first 20 seconds the core
> will be denaturated.

You're amazing Anders. If I'm reading right though, there is a bigger
size that works better... I'm sure you'll figure out how big it has to
be to work in your sleep, and will just awaken with the right answer
on your pillow.. :-)  I love hanging around with smart people!

> Now, how fast is radiative cooling of ejecta? I am too sleepy to solve that
> differential equation right now. But I bet it is slower than 20 seconds.

No doubt.

One of the most interesting factoids dancing around in my Ken Jennings
type mind is that water bears can survive in outer space. If a water
bear can do that, then why not a bacteria? It could just go into a
state of suspended animation... no need to reproduce, or keep extra
junk around. One worry is the degradation of DNA in the radiation of
space over thousands of years. That one is probably worthy of some
math by someone smarter than me. :-)

-Kelly


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 06:18:15 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:18:15 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armi1ABvCUb_EW+mqoBzD8ZrkpOj9RfhKbf+ZtdrEO5566g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwb_=FMm1SYF5TTk6RK5oE1VSDT66QTd_RCyvJ_HBqAzBA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 3:26 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 10:07 PM, Kelly Anderson ?wrote:
>> I agree with the rest of your post, but why would you think we would
>> not choose to live in the deep ocean if we're in virtual reality
>> anyway? Seems like a pretty safe place to hide out, little radiation,
>> pretty stable heat and pressure, and what is the pressure going to
>> hurt? You could even power yourself off a geothermal vent and get off
>> of solar altogether.
>>
>> Loved the rest, but this left me scratching my head wondering why you
>> would say this particular thing. After all, we talk about going into
>> outer space all the time...
>
> That's the point. I can't see AIs shutting themselves away from the
> rest of the universe.
>
> Admittedly. the outside universe will appear nearly frozen due to
> their mental speedup, but going to the bottom of the sea????
> I just assumed they would want to see what was going on outside. Just
> in case the sun went nova, or something.

Bill,

  I think you are forgetting one basic rule of life here. Life will
adapt to fill every ecological niche available. So yes, it will go
into outer space, but some will undoubtedly go under the ocean too.  I
don't see it as an either or kind of choice... and getting the massive
amount of material into space when there is plenty of material already
here seems like it might be the second problem solved.

  I see something kind of symmetrical about going back into the
oceans... it's where we came from in the first place... seems cozy and
familiar somehow. As for the sun going supernova, there's a lot of
time to figure that one out, and I'm betting they'll move the
planet... one piece at a time if necessary... unless it turns out that
the earth is just not that interesting in the grand scheme of things.

-Kelly



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Apr 15 08:23:21 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 10:23:21 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwawujXiAcSfJFnnsJNeYnxyr1oC8W7iL4oiYN+TQ6PC=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwawujXiAcSfJFnnsJNeYnxyr1oC8W7iL4oiYN+TQ6PC=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F8A8579.9050306@aleph.se>

(Summary: Panspermia is fun! So many different factors interacting, so 
much cool physics, mathematics and biology! Introduce your family to the 
joys of trying to estimate whether it works or not today! Oh, and big 
rocks are likely *much* more viable vehicles for spores than small ones. )

On 2012-04-15 08:13, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 4:26 PM, Anders Sandberg<anders at aleph.se>  wrote:
>> The survival of small impactor is a bit complicated. If I remember the
>> literature right very small ones vaporize far up, likely burning all spores
>> (they heat up in the very thin high atmosphere, where they are not strongly
>> slowed). Larger impactors have a hot crust but reach denser lower
>> atmosphere, where they reach terminal velocity and are even cooled by the
>> surrounding air. Even larger impactors are subject to enough force that they
>> can split apart, with fragments of different sizes and temperatures, some of
>> which hit the ground and have fairly low temperatures. Even bigger "pancake"
>> and explode - and then the biggest ones hit the ground.
>
> It is even more complicated than that when you figure in iron vs rock,
> but I would assume for purposes of this discussion we're only
> interested in rock.

You can check some of the physics in Collins, Melosh and Marcus' 
*excellent* paper describing their calculator:
http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/Content/pdf/Documentation.pdf

The real issue for us is sequential breakups, since we are interested in 
the conditions that produce pieces that have cores that are not too hot; 
whether they get deposited on the ground with a bang or just float down 
as dust doesn't matter.


>> A simple problem: a spherical granite pebble of radius R starts out with a
>> core temperature ~300 K and a surface that is molten, ~1500 K. How long will
>> it take for the core to become 500 K hot, and is this time shorter than the
>> time it takes to cool the surface in a space environment down to around 300
>> K?
>
> And why would we assume that the entire surface is molten? And how
> thick would that molten layer be? Wouldn't it make a difference if a
> lot of the surface was melted vs just a little bit?

We have to start somewhere with the calculations. We can be fairly 
confident that the interior of a major impact is going to be a fireball, 
so a thin molten layer is likely not a bad approximation.

In fact, for doing the calculation properly the thickness of the molten 
layer matters a lot. Obviously the initial amount of hot rock vs cold 
rock matters for estimating the end temperatures. But then there is 
this: the surface is radiating away P = 4*pi*R^2sigma*epsilon*T^4 Watts 
of heat. This will decrease its temperature as P/(4*pi*R^2*t*K) = 
sigma*epsilon*T^4/(t*K) Kelvin/second (ignoring heating from the 
inside), where t is the thickness of the IR-optically transparent outer 
layer and K is the thermal capacity. A thick layer of melt means that it 
will cool quicker since it can move heat out faster (also, it might shed 
droplets, a far more potent cooling mechanism than radiation). However, 
I don't know how much t should be in this estimate - any thermal 
physicist or hot material scientist around?


>> It is too late in my evening for me to try to solve the spherical heat
>> equation for the initial value or with a Stefan law boundary condition...
>> but it might be fun when I am awake.
>>
>> But let's assume the temperature gradient is linear. Then the heat flux is
>> F=k*delta T/R Watts, where k is the thermal conductivity of granite (1.7-4.0
>> W/mK) and delta T is the temperature difference between core and surface.
>> The core will heat up as F/CM, where C is the heat capacity of granite, 790
>> J/kg K and M is the mass of the core. Let's make it equal to a fourth of the
>> volume, giving a mass M=pi*rho*R^3/3, with rho the granite density 2691
>> kg/m^3. Putting it all together, the initial heat flux will make the core
>> temperature go up by 3*k*delta T/(C pi*rho*R^2) = (0.00107/R^2) Kelvin/s. If
>> R=1e-2, a pebble, the temperature rise will be 10.7 degrees per second. So
>> unless the pebble has cooled significantly in the first 20 seconds the core
>> will be denaturated.
>
> You're amazing Anders. If I'm reading right though, there is a bigger
> size that works better... I'm sure you'll figure out how big it has to
> be to work in your sleep, and will just awaken with the right answer
> on your pillow.. :-)  I love hanging around with smart people!

Me too! Unfortunately my dreams tonight were about running a restaurant 
at the Cote d'Azure (involving noneuclidean geometry and some minor plot 
for world domination), so I will still have to do the calculations while 
awake.

But the basic point you made is right: big boulders will not be fried as 
easily as pebbles. They also have the benefit that they are less likely 
to be ablated to nothing when passing through a terrestrial atmosphere 
on impact. On the downside, and this could be major, there will be fewer 
of them. I suspect the size distribution is a power-law, with far more 
small pieces than bigger ones. So even if the probability of life 
surviving in small pebbles is much lower the sheer number of pebbles 
might outweigh the boulders in terms of viable cells lofted into space. 
More calculations are needed...


>> Now, how fast is radiative cooling of ejecta? I am too sleepy to solve that
>> differential equation right now. But I bet it is slower than 20 seconds.
>
> No doubt.

I did find this excellent little page:
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/cootime.html

Running the numbers likely for a small pebble suggests that it does 
indeed take more than a minute for it to cool down below temperatures 
that would denaturate life. A bit of a caveat: this assumes the pebble 
is all a uniform temperature and conducts heat instantly, so it will be 
somewhat wrong. But it still shows that the timescale is not in favor of 
life.

*************

The real problem to solve is this:

Solve the spherical heat equation
r^2 dT/dt = alpha*d/dr(r^2 dT/dr) + r^2 q'/rho c_p
where the thermal diffusivity = k/rho c_p is alpha, k is the thermal 
conductivity, rho is the density, c_p is the specific heat capacity and 
q' is the rate of addition/removal of heat.

Boundary conditions:
r<R, t>0
T(r,0) = T0 (say 300 K) for r < R-thickness (where thickness might be 1 mm)
R(r,0) = T1 (say 1200 K) for R < thickness < r < R
q' = 0 for r<R
q' = - sigma*pi*T(R,t)^4 / c_p rho thickness

What conditions on R, T1 and thickness will guarantee that T(0,t) always 
remain under a critical denaturation temperature T_d(say 500 K)?

*************

A quick mathematician's look at the problem and borrowing a bit from 
http://www.ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~ernesto/S2006/CHT/Notes/ch03.pdf
suggests that core temperatures will change roughly like Tx - 
(Tx-T0)exp(-alpha*lambda^2*t), where Tx is some hot temperature and 
lambda is the smallest eigenvalue, ~pi/R. So if that is true, the time 
to serious heating of the core will scale roughly as R^2. But again, 
this ignores the radiative cooling issue and the shape of the Fourier 
spectrum.


> One of the most interesting factoids dancing around in my Ken Jennings
> type mind is that water bears can survive in outer space. If a water
> bear can do that, then why not a bacteria? It could just go into a
> state of suspended animation... no need to reproduce, or keep extra
> junk around. One worry is the degradation of DNA in the radiation of
> space over thousands of years. That one is probably worthy of some
> math by someone smarter than me. :-)

Yup, DNA degradation is likely the big problem. To be honest, I think 
launch due to big impacts is less of a problem: if it is possible at 
all, the amount of mass launched and the number of cells are going to be 
large. But then they will drift around for potentially millions of years.

In most papers I have read the idea is that bacteria on the surface of 
grains are going to get killed quickly, but bacteria inside are fairly 
safe. Of course, that might be biased because the papers are typically 
written by pro-panspermia people.

I guess the relation to look at is something like this: radiation will 
penetrate into the material with some decay length lambda, so over time 
T cells at depth d will have received a dose of D_0*exp(-lambda*d)*T. So 
a cell at the core will survive until its dose reaches D_max, at time 
T_max = D_max/(D_0*exp(-lambda*R)). D_max for Deinococcus radiodurans is 
5,000 Gray, although I am uncertain that relates to spores or the living 
bacterium. Lambda depends on the type of radiation; UV mostly affects 
the surface (a few hundred microns in basalt, 
http://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1101&context=star 
), while cosmic rays go deeper (64 cm for typical rocks on Rarth, 
according to 
http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/classes/Geo656/656notes03/656%2003Lecture13.pdf 
). D_0 in the solar system is on the order of 0.1 Gray per year
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_threat_from_cosmic_rays
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/bibliography/ICRC2005/usa-mewaldt-RA-abs1-sh35-oral.pdf
(I am here ignoring the difference between Grays and Sievert dose 
equivalents - Bad Anders! Bad Anders! - but I don't think I know how to 
estimate it properly for bacterial spores...)
So, putting it all together: T_max = 5000/(0.1*exp(-R*0.64)) years. For 
R=0.01 pebbles T_max is 50,000 years. For R=0.1 rocks T_max is 53,000 
years. For R=1 m boulders T_max is 95,000 years. For big R=10 m boulders 
T_max is 30 million years.

Conclusion: bigger is better. Especially since damage and cell death is 
a random (Poisson) process: more cells means that some are more likely 
to be lucky - expect to find some viable spores beyond a few multiples 
of T_max. Since the number of cells likely scales as some power of 
volume (why a power? fractal distribution!) and the earlier discussion 
shows that surface heating is less likely to kill everything in big 
boulders, big is good.

Of course, big is also likely to be rare, as the earlier power law 
argument pointed out. This might be another reason why relatively low 
velocity impactors on light icy moons produce more viable spores than 
hits on terrestrials. KT impactors are rare, hot and tend to spray 
short-lived vehicles for spores, while small impacts on tiny moons are 
common, cold and can launch big chunks.

OK, My work here is done. Time to run off and give a lecture. Wheeeee!

(As you can tell, I got good morning coffee today :-) )


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From anders at aleph.se  Sun Apr 15 07:06:09 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 09:06:09 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204150140100.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se> <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204150140100.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <4F8A7361.2030505@aleph.se>

It is worth considering how efficient different biospheres are at 
distributing potentially life-bearing ejecta.

The heavier the planet the more likely and energetic impacts are, but 
they tend to be more denaturating, have atmospheres slowing particles 
down and the escape velocity is higher. Small worlds like Europa might 
have frozen life in their ice crust that are easily chipped away by 
small impacts - and despite orbiting heavy Jupiter Europa is pretty high 
up in the solar s6ystem gravity well (see http://xkcd.com/681_large/ - 
much more trustworthy than Wikipedia :-) ) And of course, smaller worlds 
are likely to be more common too. Places like Ceres are also more likely 
to be hit than planets and moons in more upscale neighborhoods.

It would be fun to calculate this. Sounds like a good research paper, if 
it doesn't exist.

I suspect the emission rate varies by at least two orders of magnitude, 
perhaps much more. Once life spreads through a solar system in a 
panspermia model I suspect that the spore production becomes dominated 
by the most efficient emitter, no matter where life originated. So we 
should not obsess over whether Earth-originating spores can reach the 
stars, but rather whether Earth can seed Europa and Europa can seed the 
stars.


(And, remember, if panspermia turns out to be true, then the risk of the 
Great Filter being in our future goes up a lot! Panspermia is not good 
news for us. )

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From jonkc at bellsouth.net  Sun Apr 15 15:30:34 2012
From: jonkc at bellsouth.net (john clark)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 08:30:34 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Topological Quantum Computer
In-Reply-To: <4F8A8579.9050306@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <1334503834.91593.YahooMailClassic@web82904.mail.mud.yahoo.com>

A new type of particle (a quasi particle actually) called a? "Majorana fermion" has just been found, it is thought that they are non-abelian, if so then a particle exchange operation between two of them would be? non-commutative; the particles (called Anyons) would in a sense remember where they have been and you could tie their world lines into a knot. This could have big implications for a new type of quantum computer called a "Topological Quantum Computer" because Anyons would be MUCH less sensitive to quantum decoherence than normal matter and decoherence is the main obstacle to making a practical quantum computer. It's easy to jolt a string into a new position but its far more unlikely that you could jolt a string in just the right way to untie a knot in it, and a Topological Quantum Computer uses the knots in the world line of those? Majorana Anyons to do its quantum computing. These quasi particles form on the 2 dimensional surface of a
 topological insulator, a substance that is conductive on its surface but not in it's interior, if it is cooled to very close to absolute zero and placed in a powerful magnetic field. 

Incidentally some think Dark Matter is also some sort of? Majorana fermion, although in this case it would be real particles not quasi particles as in the above, but quasi particles would work fine in a computer.

Take a look at the breaking news:

http://prl.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v108/i13/e130501


? John K Clark


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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 16:09:55 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:09:55 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a5E7mrp2JP4adFN7iWTVR2EZwbpq95pTFsZKEHDrsR8UA@mail.gmail.com>

On 14 April 2012 07:42, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> We live in interesting times (to quote the Chinese proverb).
>

"That you may live in intereresting times" is a Chinese course.

Strangely enough, this seems to have become also a curse for some
singularitarians and/or transhumanists... :-)

Personally, I do not make any real difference between "uninteresting" and
any other, alleged, x-risk, stagnation and end of change being "death" for
all practical and emotional purposes.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 16:14:27 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:14:27 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6SvqKXh3_xgj2QuXQhvw40PU0TqLU_0db+qksAzCuFcg@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 April 2012 10:09, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (10 km in
> diameter, mass greater than 1 trillion tons) must have ejected
> billions of tons of life-bearing meteorites into space.
>

What seems pretty likely to me is that no meteorites had dinosaurs on
board. :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 16:00:40 2012
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:00:40 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F8A7361.2030505@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204141810280.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALMrAFTBTNSeuvd4afSytLQLd_SN6QF8GuBB+H6fs-2S38ypvA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_arminqK6YGyh5uERNQ9sNYBHbt5HxCsVyfH49Fk+RViFa9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSg6M=97MWfxwsAEa+1RwmnK8SupvRY0q0GDMa7VofJKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjG_SKSLedno8m6pSDNhRuKJnuuKg0Or4X2PMmAx-_xDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204142233510.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAPy8Rwb8z2Ox-k460pjTL5cBP5sbDLQ6GHVFd3NROGAZtLdWwA@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204150140100.23099@tau.ceti.pl>
 <4F8A7361.2030505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKsLuSN9VT3WdTes3zJKS+0Fo7ZtmT5QMee9B-3zPy-6A@mail.gmail.com>

Could bacteria land on a planet before it has an atmosphere to avoid
the "burnt upon entry" scenario?  If it's been patiently dormant
through millions of years of space travel, sitting around waiting for
a primordial broth to cook up seems as likely as surviving the rest of
the trip.


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 16:00:23 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:00:23 +0200
Subject: [ExI] nork launch
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy0rBfcBGeeJjTVtucmDFQc2-sAQmfWUyVVba3+rH06D+g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000301cd197c$5753ef10$05fbcd30$@att.net>
 <CAGSKFy0rBfcBGeeJjTVtucmDFQc2-sAQmfWUyVVba3+rH06D+g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6DZ-mzM0zkTP3dy6=QBRBQYp2JP-pAO_S7zj8fEoeHSw@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/13 John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>

> I wonder what will befall the engineers and scientists who worked on the
> project?  I shudder to think...
>
>
Yep, it is my impression that they had better to keep a little more focused
the next time. If the next time is going to concern them personally at
all... :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 15:42:59 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 17:42:59 +0200
Subject: [ExI] why teaching creationism is a lesser evil
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiV5u0EW+074xk8nfyrGinQXZVW-TnQiaQN8nhZCUU_YA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiV5u0EW+074xk8nfyrGinQXZVW-TnQiaQN8nhZCUU_YA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4tDR60FqhMkMO7kxY8ov4HuhnAUMvoUk3agJ5CD8F1fQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 April 2012 01:04, Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> I am again reminded of the limitations of our minds and, much more so,
> our social organizations. In a competitive environment, the truth has
> a way of surviving and thriving which is why it's better to have a
> chaotic, multicentric educational system that exposes some pupils to
> intellectual garbage along with the truth rather than to have a
> bureaucracy claiming to have a monopoly on truth - and predictably
> failing to deliver, as evidenced by the mass brainwashing of children
> along environmentalist, antihumanist lines in US government schools.
>

If you are Sparta, or the Soviet Union, or the Vatican, or even Iran, I may
well imagine that what is taught to people is a state's concern.

For allegedly "pluralistic" regimes everything and anything could in
principle be taught, astrology included, to those interested.

Let us say that even in such circumstances, there is probably nothing wrong
that federal, state or municipal education be equally offered. And the
relevant entity or agency has obviously to decide what should or should not
included in the programmes, even though a libertarian might argue that if
such programmes are offered at taxpayers' expenses this amounts to unfair
competition to private educational initiatives. OTOH, the same taxpayers
are also the electors of the federal, statal or municipal authorities
concerned, or of those appointing them, so...

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 16:44:50 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 17:44:50 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6SvqKXh3_xgj2QuXQhvw40PU0TqLU_0db+qksAzCuFcg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a6SvqKXh3_xgj2QuXQhvw40PU0TqLU_0db+qksAzCuFcg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhZOua8GCBub8eisb7Tcm_z5eCuM3AMHxCmw8P7skVg+w@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/15 Stefano Vaj wrote:
> What seems pretty likely to me is that no meteorites had dinosaurs on board.
> :-)
>
>

Oh ye of little faith.

Look on page 7 of this 8 page pdf article from Scientific American magazine,
(2009) discussing how planets lose their atmosphere.
<http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/~meech/a281/handouts/SciAm_Air.pdf>

Quote:
When a comet or asteroid strikes a planet, it creates an enormous explosion that
throws rock, water, dinosaurs and air into space.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Apr 15 18:08:35 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 20:08:35 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
Message-ID: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> -----

From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com

Focus on Munich!

With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on the
ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner Keller
beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three weeks time (May
5th, 2012).

Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you can
help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:

1) SPREAD THE WORD!

Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or
even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who might
like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and what
we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!

To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the ZS website:
http://zerostate.net/munich.html

Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS events:
http://meetup.com/zero-state

Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg

2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!

What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on voting
on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this stage? What
opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if you can't be
there in person?

3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!

We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and hacktivism
tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking about things we
might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups we might cooperate
with etc, and finally have a teamwork competition to see who can come
up with the most interesting, workable hacktivism ideas in a short
space of time.

Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or develop
these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you have any
thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with several sharp,
knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same table?

JOIN THE CONVERSATION!

25

-- 
ZERO STATE
RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
http://zerostate.net

-- 
Zero State mailing list:
http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 19:50:31 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:50:31 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhZOua8GCBub8eisb7Tcm_z5eCuM3AMHxCmw8P7skVg+w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a6SvqKXh3_xgj2QuXQhvw40PU0TqLU_0db+qksAzCuFcg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhZOua8GCBub8eisb7Tcm_z5eCuM3AMHxCmw8P7skVg+w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7qBo9iTovpA-z+AEJBWDVRuJN32_JSeW=VUw=4z5ho9w@mail.gmail.com>

On 15 April 2012 18:44, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> 2012/4/15 Stefano Vaj wrote:
> > What seems pretty likely to me is that no meteorites had dinosaurs on
> board.
> > :-)
>
> Oh ye of little faith.
>
> Look on page 7 of this 8 page pdf article from Scientific American
> magazine,
> (2009) discussing how planets lose their atmosphere.
> <http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/~meech/a281/handouts/SciAm_Air.pdf>
>
> Quote:
> When a comet or asteroid strikes a planet, it creates an enormous
> explosion that
> throws rock, water, dinosaurs and air into space.
>


OK.

Let us say that I am not persuaded that dinosaurs can in average hold their
breath for the time necessary to land somewhere else. :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From kryonica at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 20:20:13 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:20:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>

I'll be there, arrive on 4th and leave Sunday night
On 15 Apr 2012, at 19:08, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> ----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> -----
> 
> From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
> Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
> To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
> Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
> Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com
> 
> Focus on Munich!
> 
> With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on the
> ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner Keller
> beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three weeks time (May
> 5th, 2012).
> 
> Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you can
> help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:
> 
> 1) SPREAD THE WORD!
> 
> Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or
> even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who might
> like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and what
> we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!
> 
> To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the ZS website:
> http://zerostate.net/munich.html
> 
> Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS events:
> http://meetup.com/zero-state
> 
> Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg
> 
> 2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!
> 
> What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on voting
> on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this stage? What
> opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if you can't be
> there in person?
> 
> 3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!
> 
> We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and hacktivism
> tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking about things we
> might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups we might cooperate
> with etc, and finally have a teamwork competition to see who can come
> up with the most interesting, workable hacktivism ideas in a short
> space of time.
> 
> Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or develop
> these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you have any
> thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with several sharp,
> knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same table?
> 
> JOIN THE CONVERSATION!
> 
> 25
> 
> -- 
> ZERO STATE
> RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
> http://zerostate.net
> 
> -- 
> Zero State mailing list:
> http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero
> 
> ----- End forwarded message -----
> -- 
> Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
> ______________________________________________________________
> ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
> 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 20:28:42 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 22:28:42 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
 <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a7DZ97pf_-OSs=O0jKZHjpJTbOtbOApwwh7BTyEuh8DYw@mail.gmail.com>

I will also be there.

On 15 April 2012 22:20, Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:

> I'll be there, arrive on 4th and leave Sunday night
> On 15 Apr 2012, at 19:08, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>
> > ----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> -----
> >
> > From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
> > Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
> > To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
> > Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
> > Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com
> >
> > Focus on Munich!
> >
> > With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on the
> > ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner Keller
> > beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three weeks time (May
> > 5th, 2012).
> >
> > Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you can
> > help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:
> >
> > 1) SPREAD THE WORD!
> >
> > Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or
> > even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who might
> > like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and what
> > we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!
> >
> > To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the ZS
> website:
> > http://zerostate.net/munich.html
> >
> > Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS events:
> > http://meetup.com/zero-state
> >
> > Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
> > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
> > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
> > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
> > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg
> >
> > 2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!
> >
> > What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on voting
> > on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this stage? What
> > opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if you can't be
> > there in person?
> >
> > 3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!
> >
> > We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and hacktivism
> > tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking about things we
> > might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups we might cooperate
> > with etc, and finally have a teamwork competition to see who can come
> > up with the most interesting, workable hacktivism ideas in a short
> > space of time.
> >
> > Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or develop
> > these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you have any
> > thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with several sharp,
> > knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same table?
> >
> > JOIN THE CONVERSATION!
> >
> > 25
> >
> > --
> > ZERO STATE
> > RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
> > http://zerostate.net
> >
> > --
> > Zero State mailing list:
> > http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero
> >
> > ----- End forwarded message -----
> > --
> > Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
> > ______________________________________________________________
> > ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
> > 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr 16 04:26:23 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:26:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <029201cd1b89$15673fd0$4035bf70$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Keith Henson
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list

>...http://hplusmagazine.com/2012/04/12/transhumanism-and-the-human-expansio
n-into-space-a-conflict-with-physics/

>...But you might want to comment.  Keith
_______________________________________________

Keith regarding your comment on an M-Brain being of one mind, it should
rather be thought of as a community of minds that works in unison.  At least
I hope to heck that is how it works out.  If we manage to create an MBrain,
then upload ourselves, then end up in a big meme war, I will be most
disappointed in us.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr 16 04:41:17 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:41:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <029301cd1b8b$2b926170$82b72450$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
...

>...We live in interesting times (to quote the Chinese proverb).  BillK
_______________________________________________

The ancient Chinese curse, may you live in interesting times, is so very
illustrative of how good we have it.  Back in the old days, and really most
of history including now for most of the planet, interesting was nearly
always bad news.  Change was so painful, and still is for most of modern
humanity.  But you and I are in a very special place in a very special time,
where interesting is good.  For us, change is progress, and progress is
good.  

My friends, we are damn lucky people.

spike



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Apr 16 05:48:32 2012
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 23:48:32 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F8A8579.9050306@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwawujXiAcSfJFnnsJNeYnxyr1oC8W7iL4oiYN+TQ6PC=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F8A8579.9050306@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaGz-KKt_A6dLJ710td6todctqLa=Bv8zxuCuX6XcLT0g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 15, 2012 at 2:23 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> (Summary: Panspermia is fun! So many different factors interacting, so much
> cool physics, mathematics and biology! Introduce your family to the joys of
> trying to estimate whether it works or not today! Oh, and big rocks are
> likely *much* more viable vehicles for spores than small ones. )

I would have to agree, this is highly interdisciplinary. Don't forget
the computer science in the monte carlo simulations... :-)

> On 2012-04-15 08:13, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>>
>> On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 4:26 PM, Anders Sandberg<anders at aleph.se> ?wrote:
>>>
> You can check some of the physics in Collins, Melosh and Marcus' *excellent*
> paper describing their calculator:
> http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/Content/pdf/Documentation.pdf

My brother works at the University of Arizona... should we need, I'm
sure he could run over and ask these fine gentlemen questions for
us... :-)

> The real issue for us is sequential breakups, since we are interested in the
> conditions that produce pieces that have cores that are not too hot; whether
> they get deposited on the ground with a bang or just float down as dust
> doesn't matter.

By sequential breakups, do you mean big rocks that get broken into
littler pieces later?

>>> A simple problem: a spherical granite pebble of radius R starts out with
>>> a
>>> core temperature ~300 K and a surface that is molten, ~1500 K. How long
>>> will
>>> it take for the core to become 500 K hot, and is this time shorter than
>>> the
>>> time it takes to cool the surface in a space environment down to around
>>> 300
>>> K?
>>
>>
>> And why would we assume that the entire surface is molten? And how
>> thick would that molten layer be? Wouldn't it make a difference if a
>> lot of the surface was melted vs just a little bit?
>
>
> We have to start somewhere with the calculations. We can be fairly confident
> that the interior of a major impact is going to be a fireball, so a thin
> molten layer is likely not a bad approximation.

There will clearly be a molten portion nearest the impact site.

> In fact, for doing the calculation properly the thickness of the molten
> layer matters a lot. Obviously the initial amount of hot rock vs cold rock
> matters for estimating the end temperatures.

That was just intuition on my part, but it makes sense. Seems it could
be rather thin if the event happens fast enough. Looking at the stuff
scattered around meteor crater in Arizona, some is clearly
resolidified glass, and other is just broken up rock, it varies a lot.

> But then there is this: the
> surface is radiating away P = 4*pi*R^2sigma*epsilon*T^4 Watts of heat. This
> will decrease its temperature as P/(4*pi*R^2*t*K) = sigma*epsilon*T^4/(t*K)
> Kelvin/second (ignoring heating from the inside), where t is the thickness
> of the IR-optically transparent outer layer and K is the thermal capacity. A
> thick layer of melt means that it will cool quicker since it can move heat
> out faster (also, it might shed droplets, a far more potent cooling
> mechanism than radiation). However, I don't know how much t should be in
> this estimate - any thermal physicist or hot material scientist around?

Not me.

>> You're amazing Anders. If I'm reading right though, there is a bigger
>> size that works better... I'm sure you'll figure out how big it has to
>> be to work in your sleep, and will just awaken with the right answer
>> on your pillow.. :-) ?I love hanging around with smart people!
>
> Me too! Unfortunately my dreams tonight were about running a restaurant at
> the Cote d'Azure (involving noneuclidean geometry and some minor plot for
> world domination), so I will still have to do the calculations while awake.

Can I be the Pinky to your Brain? LOL

> But the basic point you made is right: big boulders will not be fried as
> easily as pebbles. They also have the benefit that they are less likely to
> be ablated to nothing when passing through a terrestrial atmosphere on
> impact. On the downside, and this could be major, there will be fewer of
> them.

I think that it would be safe to estimate boulder size with a Poisson
distribution. The other really big problem is that smaller stuff seems
likely to travel faster (F=ma and all) and thus have a better chance
of escaping the solar system.

> I suspect the size distribution is a power-law, with far more small
> pieces than bigger ones.

I don't recall if Poisson is a power law, but it's close.

> So even if the probability of life surviving in
> small pebbles is much lower the sheer number of pebbles might outweigh the
> boulders in terms of viable cells lofted into space. More calculations are
> needed...

There is clearly a sweet spot... where the chance of survival and
transport are both optimal... :-) It might not be that either is
totally satisfied in any given event, and that in and of itself would
be an interesting thing to ponder.

If you're talking about a life bearing planet other than earth, the
mass of that planet probably also figures into the calculations quite
a bit. That is, the more massive the planet, the less likely for life
bearing rocks to escape.

>>> Now, how fast is radiative cooling of ejecta? I am too sleepy to solve
>>> that
>>> differential equation right now. But I bet it is slower than 20 seconds.
>>
>>
>> No doubt.
>
>
> I did find this excellent little page:
> http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/cootime.html

Looks promising. Been a long time since I did any physics at all, and
I don't know if I ever did heat stuff.

> Running the numbers likely for a small pebble suggests that it does indeed
> take more than a minute for it to cool down below temperatures that would
> denaturate life. A bit of a caveat: this assumes the pebble is all a uniform
> temperature and conducts heat instantly, so it will be somewhat wrong. But
> it still shows that the timescale is not in favor of life.

So how big does it have to be? Depends on how hot it initially is, and
the cooler areas farther from the impact site are going to be blown
out with a much lower velocity, as energy is lost as it gets farther
from the impact zone.

However, If you look at the computer models they make of these things,
it looks like planting an onion... there is a puncture in the skin of
the planet, then a huge powerful explosion from inside, down below, (I
think more deeply for iron than rock impactors, but that's from
memory) and then the skin of the planet above that is pushed out with
fantastic velocity without being severely heated. So a significant
amount of ejecta, and in fact some of the stuff that would be going
the fastest would not be heated at all. I can't find the animation
that I was looking for that showed this... but you can imagine what
I'm talking about... especially when (as is most common) the asteroid
comes in at an angle.

There's just so many variables in all this. Monte carlo does seem like
the only way to go.

> *************
>
> The real problem to solve is this:
>
> Solve the spherical heat equation
> r^2 dT/dt = alpha*d/dr(r^2 dT/dr) + r^2 q'/rho c_p
> where the thermal diffusivity = k/rho c_p is alpha, k is the thermal
> conductivity, rho is the density, c_p is the specific heat capacity and q'
> is the rate of addition/removal of heat.
>
> Boundary conditions:
> r<R, t>0
> T(r,0) = T0 (say 300 K) for r < R-thickness (where thickness might be 1 mm)
> R(r,0) = T1 (say 1200 K) for R < thickness < r < R
> q' = 0 for r<R
> q' = - sigma*pi*T(R,t)^4 / c_p rho thickness
>
> What conditions on R, T1 and thickness will guarantee that T(0,t) always
> remain under a critical denaturation temperature T_d(say 500 K)?

Or side step that problem entirely, and just figure out that a lot of
stuff gets shot out really fast without heating up all that much...
but that requires modelling the impact very carefully. However a
number of people have done that sort of thing to great specificity.

> *************
>
> A quick mathematician's look at the problem and borrowing a bit from
> http://www.ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~ernesto/S2006/CHT/Notes/ch03.pdf
> suggests that core temperatures will change roughly like Tx -
> (Tx-T0)exp(-alpha*lambda^2*t), where Tx is some hot temperature and lambda
> is the smallest eigenvalue, ~pi/R. So if that is true, the time to serious
> heating of the core will scale roughly as R^2. But again, this ignores the
> radiative cooling issue and the shape of the Fourier spectrum.
>
>
>
>> One of the most interesting factoids dancing around in my Ken Jennings
>> type mind is that water bears can survive in outer space. If a water
>> bear can do that, then why not a bacteria? It could just go into a
>> state of suspended animation... no need to reproduce, or keep extra
>> junk around. One worry is the degradation of DNA in the radiation of
>> space over thousands of years. That one is probably worthy of some
>> math by someone smarter than me. :-)
>
>
> Yup, DNA degradation is likely the big problem. To be honest, I think launch
> due to big impacts is less of a problem: if it is possible at all, the
> amount of mass launched and the number of cells are going to be large. But
> then they will drift around for potentially millions of years.

And be subjected to the vicissitudes of interstellar radiation. I
would assume (big assumption???) that most of the radiation in our
vicinity actually comes from the sun. Most of the articles I could
find on the subject seemed to talk about solar behavior with respect
to radiation. So perhaps interstellar space is somewhat less
radioactive than close to stars. Though of course you could pass by
some really nasty neighbors in a few million years.

> In most papers I have read the idea is that bacteria on the surface of
> grains are going to get killed quickly, but bacteria inside are fairly safe.
> Of course, that might be biased because the papers are typically written by
> pro-panspermia people.

Well, yeah... who knows how this stuff really works.

> I guess the relation to look at is something like this: radiation will
> penetrate into the material with some decay length lambda, so over time T
> cells at depth d will have received a dose of D_0*exp(-lambda*d)*T. So a
> cell at the core will survive until its dose reaches D_max, at time T_max =
> D_max/(D_0*exp(-lambda*R)). D_max for Deinococcus radiodurans is 5,000 Gray,
> although I am uncertain that relates to spores or the living bacterium.
> Lambda depends on the type of radiation; UV mostly affects the surface (a
> few hundred microns in basalt,
> http://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1101&context=star
> ), while cosmic rays go deeper (64 cm for typical rocks on Rarth, according
> to
> http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/classes/Geo656/656notes03/656%2003Lecture13.pdf
> ). D_0 in the solar system is on the order of 0.1 Gray per year
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_threat_from_cosmic_rays
> http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/bibliography/ICRC2005/usa-mewaldt-RA-abs1-sh35-oral.pdf
> (I am here ignoring the difference between Grays and Sievert dose
> equivalents - Bad Anders! Bad Anders! - but I don't think I know how to
> estimate it properly for bacterial spores...)
> So, putting it all together: T_max = 5000/(0.1*exp(-R*0.64)) years. For
> R=0.01 pebbles T_max is 50,000 years. For R=0.1 rocks T_max is 53,000 years.
> For R=1 m boulders T_max is 95,000 years. For big R=10 m boulders T_max is
> 30 million years.

On the biology side of things though... Bacteria are MUCH less
susceptible to radiation damage than Eukaryotes. Our DNA has the
protection of the nuclear sack, and so it has lost some of the ability
that prokaryotic cells have for ongoing DNA repair. So the take home
message here is that prokaryotes are much more likely to have come
from outer space than eukaryotes. And since it did take a long time
for the eukaryotes to emerge on earth, that is consistent with the Law
of Accelerating returns whereas the sudden appearance of the
prokaryotes seems rather sudden.

> Conclusion: bigger is better.

Not so fast. Bigger is only better in terms of survival... but not
necessarily in terms of getting there. Bigger = slower.

> Especially since damage and cell death is a
> random (Poisson) process: more cells means that some are more likely to be
> lucky - expect to find some viable spores beyond a few multiples of T_max.

You only need to get one or just a few there...

> Since the number of cells likely scales as some power of volume (why a
> power? fractal distribution!) and the earlier discussion shows that surface
> heating is less likely to kill everything in big boulders, big is good.
>
> Of course, big is also likely to be rare, as the earlier power law argument
> pointed out. This might be another reason why relatively low velocity
> impactors on light icy moons produce more viable spores than hits on
> terrestrials. KT impactors are rare, hot and tend to spray short-lived
> vehicles for spores, while small impacts on tiny moons are common, cold and
> can launch big chunks.

But moons aren't very good for life, in general... And just because
big impactors are now rare here, remember they weren't always rare
here... and they might not be quite as rare in solar systems without
gas giants.

> OK, My work here is done. Time to run off and give a lecture. Wheeeee!
>
> (As you can tell, I got good morning coffee today :-) )

Yeah, I can tell you are into this. Sounds like fun stuff to send
students chasing off after... LOL  They could have fun with it. Maybe
a Panspermia seminar...

-Kelly



From kryonica at gmail.com  Sun Apr 15 20:20:13 2012
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica)
Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 21:20:13 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>

I'll be there, arrive on 4th and leave Sunday night
On 15 Apr 2012, at 19:08, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> ----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> -----
> 
> From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
> Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
> To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
> Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
> Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com
> 
> Focus on Munich!
> 
> With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on the
> ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner Keller
> beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three weeks time (May
> 5th, 2012).
> 
> Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you can
> help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:
> 
> 1) SPREAD THE WORD!
> 
> Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or
> even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who might
> like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and what
> we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!
> 
> To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the ZS website:
> http://zerostate.net/munich.html
> 
> Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS events:
> http://meetup.com/zero-state
> 
> Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
> http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg
> 
> 2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!
> 
> What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on voting
> on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this stage? What
> opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if you can't be
> there in person?
> 
> 3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!
> 
> We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and hacktivism
> tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking about things we
> might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups we might cooperate
> with etc, and finally have a teamwork competition to see who can come
> up with the most interesting, workable hacktivism ideas in a short
> space of time.
> 
> Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or develop
> these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you have any
> thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with several sharp,
> knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same table?
> 
> JOIN THE CONVERSATION!
> 
> 25
> 
> -- 
> ZERO STATE
> RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
> http://zerostate.net
> 
> -- 
> Zero State mailing list:
> http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero
> 
> ----- End forwarded message -----
> -- 
> Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
> ______________________________________________________________
> ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
> 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Mon Apr 16 10:51:39 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 12:51:39 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <029201cd1b89$15673fd0$4035bf70$@att.net>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <029201cd1b89$15673fd0$4035bf70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4F3emU_gW4jzD3Ly5bD-pghGtsUSC7gM9myhOhZjdm+A@mail.gmail.com>

On 16 April 2012 06:26, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Keith regarding your comment on an M-Brain being of one mind, it should
> rather be thought of as a community of minds that works in unison.
>

Why, if I am not mistaken, according to Minsky (*The Society of the
Mind*<http://www.amazon.com/The-Society-Mind-Marvin-Minsky/dp/0671657135/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1334573441&sr=8-1>),
our own single minds already work pretty much this way, don't they?

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Apr 16 12:06:57 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 14:06:57 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a7DZ97pf_-OSs=O0jKZHjpJTbOtbOApwwh7BTyEuh8DYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
 <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7DZ97pf_-OSs=O0jKZHjpJTbOtbOApwwh7BTyEuh8DYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120416120657.GU28282@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 15, 2012 at 10:28:42PM +0200, Stefano Vaj wrote:
> I will also be there.

Great! Me too, and quite a few locals.
 
> On 15 April 2012 22:20, Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > I'll be there, arrive on 4th and leave Sunday night
> > On 15 Apr 2012, at 19:08, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> >
> > > ----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> -----
> > >
> > > From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
> > > Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
> > > To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
> > > Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
> > > Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com
> > >
> > > Focus on Munich!
> > >
> > > With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on the
> > > ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner Keller
> > > beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three weeks time (May
> > > 5th, 2012).
> > >
> > > Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you can
> > > help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:
> > >
> > > 1) SPREAD THE WORD!
> > >
> > > Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or
> > > even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who might
> > > like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and what
> > > we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!
> > >
> > > To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the ZS
> > website:
> > > http://zerostate.net/munich.html
> > >
> > > Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS events:
> > > http://meetup.com/zero-state
> > >
> > > Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg
> > >
> > > 2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!
> > >
> > > What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on voting
> > > on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this stage? What
> > > opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if you can't be
> > > there in person?
> > >
> > > 3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!
> > >
> > > We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and hacktivism
> > > tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking about things we
> > > might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups we might cooperate
> > > with etc, and finally have a teamwork competition to see who can come
> > > up with the most interesting, workable hacktivism ideas in a short
> > > space of time.
> > >
> > > Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or develop
> > > these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you have any
> > > thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with several sharp,
> > > knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same table?
> > >
> > > JOIN THE CONVERSATION!
> > >
> > > 25
> > >
> > > --
> > > ZERO STATE
> > > RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
> > > http://zerostate.net
> > >
> > > --
> > > Zero State mailing list:
> > > http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero
> > >
> > > ----- End forwarded message -----
> > > --
> > > Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
> > > ______________________________________________________________
> > > ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
> > > 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > extropy-chat mailing list
> > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> Stefano Vaj

> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE


From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Mon Apr 16 12:01:24 2012
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 05:01:24 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Memories are stored  in individual neurons
Message-ID: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>

?
?
?
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/123485-mit-discovers-the-location-of-memories-individual-neurons

http://www.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/conjuring-memories-artificially-0322.html
?
?
"MIT researchers have shown, for the first time ever, that memories are stored in specific brain cells. By triggering a small cluster of neurons, the researchers were able to force the subject to recall a specific memory. By removing these neurons, the subject would lose that memory . . ."
------------------------------------
?
This is an amazing discovery that I think would be very relevant?to the brain-simulation strategy of AI development.?The scientific article?is behind a paywall so I can't give an informed opinion on the data but it is MIT and the group did publish in Nature so it is likely credible.
?
Stuart LaForge


"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides.



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr 16 13:42:17 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 06:42:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a4F3emU_gW4jzD3Ly5bD-pghGtsUSC7gM9myhOhZjdm+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <029201cd1b89$15673fd0$4035bf70$@att.net>
 <CAPoR7a4F3emU_gW4jzD3Ly5bD-pghGtsUSC7gM9myhOhZjdm+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <032201cd1bd6$bdc8b0d0$395a1270$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj
Subject: Re: [ExI] Old stuff on this list

 

On 16 April 2012 06:26, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>.Keith regarding your comment on an M-Brain being of one mind, it should
rather be thought of as a community of minds that works in unison.  


>.Why, if I am not mistaken, according to Minsky (
<http://www.amazon.com/The-Society-Mind-Marvin-Minsky/dp/0671657135/ref=sr_1
_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1334573441&sr=8-1> The Society of the Mind), our own single
minds already work pretty much this way, don't they? -- Stefano Vaj

 

 

Ja.  My vision of an MBrain is that it works more like a super unified
community than as a massive single brain.  It could have structures within
the MBrain that operate in a way analogous to our cities and corporations,
that do things interdependently and independently of the rest.  If we use
the dimensions I suggested for an MBrain in an engineering society
presentation I made last fall, assume a ring of nodes spaced one meter apart
in orbit at 1 AU.  That ring contains about a trillion nodes.  Those
trillion nodes can communicate with each other by passing signals serially
along the ring.  Another ring outboard of that one would be analogous to a
second city or corporation.  

 

As we move outward from the sun, the rings have more nodes but less energy
falling per unit area on each node, so the optimum design differs.  In that
way, the MBrain forms another analogy to our modern world: we have a few of
us who use energy like crazy and do a lot of things which impact everyone
else on the planet.  We, everyone reading this comment, are analogous to the
MBrain nodes which orbit close and collect a lot of sunlight.  Do cool stuff
with that energy.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Apr 16 15:43:57 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 17:43:57 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaGz-KKt_A6dLJ710td6todctqLa=Bv8zxuCuX6XcLT0g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwawujXiAcSfJFnnsJNeYnxyr1oC8W7iL4oiYN+TQ6PC=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F8A8579.9050306@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwaGz-KKt_A6dLJ710td6todctqLa=Bv8zxuCuX6XcLT0g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F8C3E3D.20307@aleph.se>

I did a quick-and-dirty simulation of the heat diffusion in spherical 
rock. I don't trust the quantitative results but the qualitative picture 
looks a bit like I thought: a wave of high temperature diffusing into 
the rock, with a fairly rapid cooling of the surface in space. Small 
pebbles get fried before they cool, large ones dissipate the wave before 
it gets too deep.

I also re-read the paper that initiated the whole discussion, and I 
found it to be severely lacking. The authors seem to have relied very 
strongly on the pro-panspermia community for impact physics, producing 
very high estimates. However, there is a decent literature of proper 
simulations with less of an axe to grind. In particular, "Impact Seeding 
and Reseeding in the Inner Solar System "
http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/ast.2005.5.483
suggests that the timescale for particles in the inner system from 
launch to impact is about 30,000 years, which is good news for local 
panspermia. It also includes fragment calculations based on Melosh, H J. 
(1985) Ejection of rock fragments from planetary bodies. Geology 13, 
144?148. that seem to imply a power law.


On 16/04/2012 07:48, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> By sequential breakups, do you mean big rocks that get broken into 
> littler pieces later? 

Yup. One can run the above calculation backwards: heating spreads into 
an initially frozen impactor as it descends. If it is too small, 
everything gets fried. If it is larger a core survives, but it might 
still get vaporised on impact. But if the rock is slowed by friction and 
then blows up, then cold fragments might now find themselves in the 
lower atmosphere where their terminal velocity doesn't heat them up too 
much. Unfortunately this kind of cascades are hard to analyse and little 
constrained by data.

> I think that it would be safe to estimate boulder size with a Poisson
> distribution. The other really big problem is that smaller stuff seems
> likely to travel faster (F=ma and all) and thus have a better chance
> of escaping the solar system.

Not sure if the sizes are going to be Poisson or power law - I suspect 
the later, since fragmentation processes typically give power laws.


> On the biology side of things though... Bacteria are MUCH less 
> susceptible to radiation damage than Eukaryotes. Our DNA has the 
> protection of the nuclear sack, and so it has lost some of the ability 
> that prokaryotic cells have for ongoing DNA repair. So the take home 
> message here is that prokaryotes are much more likely to have come 
> from outer space than eukaryotes. And since it did take a long time 
> for the eukaryotes to emerge on earth, that is consistent with the Law 
> of Accelerating returns whereas the sudden appearance of the 
> prokaryotes seems rather sudden.

However, D radiodurans is pretty extreme by prokaryote standards too. I 
would not trust the LoAR in biology. Plenty of observation bias and all 
that.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From natasha at natasha.cc  Mon Apr 16 16:05:38 2012
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 11:05:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <20120416120657.GU28282@leitl.org>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
 <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7DZ97pf_-OSs=O0jKZHjpJTbOtbOApwwh7BTyEuh8DYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120416120657.GU28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <00df01cd1bea$c42b6d50$4c8247f0$@cc>

Can you all send any and all information on this to info at humanityplus.org
and also to H+ Magazine to cover? !!

Thanks,
Natasha

Natasha Vita-More
Chairman, Humanity+ 
ExDir, Design ESM <emerging / speculative media>
PhD Researcher, Univ. of Plymouth, UK

Editor, The Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary 
Essays on the Science, Technology and Philosophy of the Human Future



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Sent: Monday, April 16, 2012 7:07 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!

On Sun, Apr 15, 2012 at 10:28:42PM +0200, Stefano Vaj wrote:
> I will also be there.

Great! Me too, and quite a few locals.
 
> On 15 April 2012 22:20, Kryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > I'll be there, arrive on 4th and leave Sunday night On 15 Apr 2012, 
> > at 19:08, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> >
> > > ----- Forwarded message from "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net> 
> > > -----
> > >
> > > From: "ZeroState.net" <info at zerostate.net>
> > > Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:28:17 +0100
> > > To: Doctrine Zero <DoctrineZero at googlegroups.com>
> > > Subject: [ZS] Focus on Munich!
> > > Reply-To: doctrinezero at googlegroups.com
> > >
> > > Focus on Munich!
> > >
> > > With yesterday's event out of the way, now it is time to focus on 
> > > the ZS AGM & Hacktivism workshop, to be held at the Augustiner 
> > > Keller beergarden in Munich, Germany, in a little under three 
> > > weeks time (May 5th, 2012).
> > >
> > > Even if you won't be attending yourself, there are three ways you 
> > > can help make the event a success, and thereby help ZS:
> > >
> > > 1) SPREAD THE WORD!
> > >
> > > Please, tell people about the event, even if it highly unlikely or 
> > > even impossible that they'll attend. They may know someone who 
> > > might like to hear about it, or may just like to hear about ZS and 
> > > what we're getting up to. Every little bit helps!
> > >
> > > To spread the word, you can point people at the Munich page on the 
> > > ZS
> > website:
> > > http://zerostate.net/munich.html
> > >
> > > Or at our meetup.com group, where they'll see details of all ZS
events:
> > > http://meetup.com/zero-state
> > >
> > > Or you could simply show them any of these flyers:
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_003.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_004.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_001.jpg
> > > http://zerostate.net/printables/ZSflyer_002.jpg
> > >
> > > 2) SUGGEST DISCUSSION ITEMS FOR THE AGM!
> > >
> > > What big decisions should we be thinking or talking about, on 
> > > voting on? What questions should ZS be asking itself at this 
> > > stage? What opinions would you like expressed at the meeting, if 
> > > you can't be there in person?
> > >
> > > 3) SUGGEST HACKTIVISM WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES!
> > >
> > > We're going to be talking about darknet, cryptography, and 
> > > hacktivism tools and goals, brainstorming up a few ideas, talking 
> > > about things we might work on ourselves as ZS sub-projects, groups 
> > > we might cooperate with etc, and finally have a teamwork 
> > > competition to see who can come up with the most interesting, 
> > > workable hacktivism ideas in a short space of time.
> > >
> > > Have you got any ideas or suggestions which might improve or 
> > > develop these plans? Even if you can't make it yourself, do you 
> > > have any thoughts on how we could best be spending our time with 
> > > several sharp, knowledgable, dedicated people sat around the same
table?
> > >
> > > JOIN THE CONVERSATION!
> > >
> > > 25
> > >
> > > --
> > > ZERO STATE
> > > RADICAL DEMOCRATIC FUTURISM
> > > http://zerostate.net
> > >
> > > --
> > > Zero State mailing list:
> > > http://groups.google.com/group/DoctrineZero
> > >
> > > ----- End forwarded message -----
> > > --
> > > Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org 
> > > ______________________________________________________________
> > > ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com 
> > > http://postbiota.org
> > > 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE 
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > extropy-chat mailing list
> > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
> 
> 
> 
> --
> Stefano Vaj

> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Apr 16 16:25:20 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 18:25:20 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [ZS] Focus on Munich!
In-Reply-To: <20120416120657.GU28282@leitl.org>
References: <20120415180835.GK28282@leitl.org>
 <BFB4A599-B1E0-4F2A-9222-4F4F6EE48C14@gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a7DZ97pf_-OSs=O0jKZHjpJTbOtbOApwwh7BTyEuh8DYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20120416120657.GU28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F8C47F0.2070001@aleph.se>

Ironic, I will be going to Munich this weekend (memory enhancement 
workshop at the local Max Planck Institute for Psychology) and will miss 
the ZS event. Too bad, but I guess you can manage without a confused 
philosopher/neuroscientist/whatever...

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Apr 16 16:32:52 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 18:32:52 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Memories are stored  in individual neurons
In-Reply-To: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <4F8C49B4.1070109@aleph.se>

Neat result. Not really "individual neurons" but sparse neural networks 
as expected.

On 16/04/2012 14:01, The Avantguardian wrote:
> This is an amazing discovery that I think would be very relevant to the brain-simulation strategy of AI development.

In particular, things like this will help us figure out the links 
between physiological function and the data we can extract from scans.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From max at maxmore.com  Mon Apr 16 17:11:25 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 10:11:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Memories are stored in individual neurons
In-Reply-To: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wWo9GpU7kj7nkLHZj28ukHPtiKLRxxw6v9NJUZB2_571w@mail.gmail.com>

The headline about "individual neurons" seems to be misleading. Even if
individual neurons were targeted, the researchers are actually talking
about activating small clusters of neurons. How small is small? No
information is provided. Small might mean dozens, hundreds, or even
thousands.

If anyone has access to the full article behind the paywall, I would be
very interested in reading it -- both personally and because it's important
to cryonics.

--Max


On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 5:01 AM, The Avantguardian <
avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/123485-mit-discovers-the-location-of-memories-individual-neurons
>
>
> http://www.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/conjuring-memories-artificially-0322.html
>
>
> "MIT researchers have shown, for the first time ever, that memories are
> stored in specific brain cells. By triggering a small cluster of neurons,
> the researchers were able to force the subject to recall a specific memory.
> By removing these neurons, the subject would lose that memory . . ."
> ------------------------------------
>
> This is an amazing discovery that I think would be very relevant to the
> brain-simulation strategy of AI development. The scientific article is
> behind a paywall so I can't give an informed opinion on the data but it is
> MIT and the group did publish in Nature so it is likely credible.
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
> "The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its
> thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Apr 16 18:04:42 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 16 Apr 2012 19:04:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Memories are stored in individual neurons
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wWo9GpU7kj7nkLHZj28ukHPtiKLRxxw6v9NJUZB2_571w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1334577684.23969.YahooMailNeo@web164503.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
 <CAJX-7wWo9GpU7kj7nkLHZj28ukHPtiKLRxxw6v9NJUZB2_571w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhqEu8LDjm34pXBsDAAkbEO+ihMweX_mnQz86Kk-6uAkw@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/16 Max More wrote:
> The headline about "individual neurons" seems to be misleading. Even if
> individual neurons were targeted, the researchers are actually talking about
> activating small clusters of neurons. How small is small? No information is
> provided. Small might mean dozens, hundreds, or even thousands.
>
> If anyone has access to the full article behind the paywall, I would be very
> interested in reading it -- both personally and because it's important to
> cryonics.
>
>

PDF file here:  Grab it while you can.......
<http://extremelongevity.net/wp-content/uploads/memory-storage.pdf>


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr 17 12:16:42 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2012 14:16:42 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Old stuff on this list
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armi1ABvCUb_EW+mqoBzD8ZrkpOj9RfhKbf+ZtdrEO5566g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB693zZRgBN74Yh=-keB9q9LZgwx7Bb1W6mNhUFD1LhAaA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhwQfyVxPAWj306vZ+dTbSWE9E-sBQG0zAaCVbNvwgaWw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8Rwb_4nEK+5=snZazPz5p-E2Tg90=ZD5AGB6QtGvoQBAUyA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armi1ABvCUb_EW+mqoBzD8ZrkpOj9RfhKbf+ZtdrEO5566g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120417121642.GU28282@leitl.org>

On Sat, Apr 14, 2012 at 10:26:46PM +0100, BillK wrote:

> That's the point. I can't see AIs shutting themselves away from the
> rest of the universe.

How much interaction do you have with the rest of the universe?
 
> Admittedly. the outside universe will appear nearly frozen due to

Do you see the stars move?

> their mental speedup, but going to the bottom of the sea????
> I just assumed they would want to see what was going on outside. Just

Why is everybody into solipsism so much?

> in case the sun went nova, or something.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Apr 17 12:20:13 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2012 14:20:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20120417122013.GV28282@leitl.org>

On Sun, Apr 15, 2012 at 12:26:13AM +0200, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> Bacteria have been grown under 100,000 Gs. It is not the shock that is  
> the problem. The problem is any temperature above (say) 200 degrees C.

Nobody remembers this article? I thought we discussed it here.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/290/5492/791.abstract

Science 27 October 2000:
Vol. 290 no. 5492 pp. 791-795
DOI: 10.1126/science.290.5492.791

    Report

A Low Temperature Transfer of ALH84001 from Mars to Earth

    Benjamin P. Weiss1,*,
    Joseph L. Kirschvink1,
    Franz J. Baudenbacher2,
    Hojatollah Vali3,
    Nick T. Peters2,
    Francis A. Macdonald1 and
    John P. Wikswo2

+ Author Affiliations

    1 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, 170-25, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
    2 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, 6301 Stevenson Center, Nashville, TN 37235, USA.
    3 Electron Microscopy Centre, Department of Anatomy and Cell Biology and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, 3640 University Street, Montreal QC H3A 2B2, Canada.

Abstract

The ejection of material from Mars is thought to be caused by large impacts that would heat much of the ejecta to high temperatures. Images of the magnetic field of martian meteorite ALH84001 reveal a spatially heterogeneous pattern of magnetization associated with fractures and rock fragments. Heating the meteorite to 40?C reduces the intensity of some magnetic features, indicating that the interior of the rock has not been above this temperature since before its ejection from the surface of Mars. Because this temperature cannot sterilize most bacteria or eukarya, these data support the hypothesis that meteorites could transfer life between planets in the solar system.



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr 17 14:03:23 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2012 16:03:23 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Life must be everywhere!
In-Reply-To: <20120417122013.GV28282@leitl.org>
References: <CAL_armiSzJjTQKXKYy1uHQ-8NmeyabO5FbS+SPTb05aKoRgn=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F87FC6C.3010304@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwbbPoxxDpi+1s=OJeGT-qzWMt_x8u92C_4UcdbkaOjPfQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F89F985.4050304@aleph.se> <20120417122013.GV28282@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <4F8D782B.2090304@aleph.se>

On 17/04/2012 14:20, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Sun, Apr 15, 2012 at 12:26:13AM +0200, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
>> Bacteria have been grown under 100,000 Gs. It is not the shock that is
>> the problem. The problem is any temperature above (say) 200 degrees C.
> Nobody remembers this article? I thought we discussed it here.
>
> http://www.sciencemag.org/content/290/5492/791.abstract

Yup. But it might be easier to do a low+temperature launch from Mars 
than Earth, due to lack of thick atmosphere and lower gravity. Here we 
need K/T impactor size impacts to launch stuff, and they tend to be much 
more energetic = heat more material.

An interesting aspect is whether ALH84001 is a fragment of a larger 
block that was launched.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Apr 19 08:20:29 2012
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:20:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [astro] Space firm about to make a big announcement. I take a
	stab	at what	it is.
Message-ID: <20120419082029.GR28282@leitl.org>


http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/04/18/space-firm-about-to-make-a-big-announcement-i-take-a-stab-at-what-it-is/

Space firm about to make a big announcement. I take a stab at what it is.

I?m overwhelmed with work right now prepping for a half dozen different
things, but I had to make some comment on a press release I just got in the
mail.

Here?s the important bit [emphasis mine]:

    Join visionary Peter H. Diamandis, M.D.; leading commercial space
entrepreneur Eric Anderson; former NASA Mars mission manager Chris Lewicki;
and planetary scientist & veteran NASA astronaut Tom Jones, Ph.D. on Tuesday,
April 24 at 10:30 a.m. PDT in Seattle, or via webcast, as they unveil a new
space venture with a mission to help ensure humanity?s prosperity.

    Supported by an impressive investor and advisor group, including Google?s
Larry Page & Eric Schmidt, Ph.D.; film maker & explorer James Cameron;
Chairman of Intentional Software Corporation and Microsoft?s former Chief
Software Architect Charles Simonyi, Ph.D.; Founder of Sherpalo and Google
Board of Directors founding member K. Ram Shriram; and Chairman of Hillwood
and The Perot Group Ross Perot, Jr., the company will overlay two critical
sectors ? space exploration and natural resources ? to add trillions of
dollars to the global GDP. This innovative start-up will create a new
industry and a new definition of ?natural resources?.

Well now, what could that mean? What natural resources are there in space?
Solar energy might count, but I have a strong suspicion what they?re really
talking about is asteroid mining.

Yes, you heard me. Let me be VERY clear: I?m speculating here. I have no more
info on this than what I?ve quoted there, but it fits what the release says.
Peter Diamandis is a big thinker, to put it mildly. His Wikipedia page should
give you a taste of that. Asteroid mining is big enough for him to be
interested in it! And heck, he said as much in his TED talk.

The engineering behind it would be fearsome. We?re a ways out from being able
to do this, but if we had a big rocket ? say SpaceX?s Falcon Heavy (though I
don?t see any SpaceX folks listed in the release) ? then getting an operation
to a near-Earth asteroid is feasible. Even a rocky asteroid would have metals
in it, and we can pick in advance one that has a higher abundance of metals.
And like I said in my TED talk, we can move asteroids around if we?re
patient.

If I were being optimistic, I might say something like this could get off the
ground in 20 years or so, depending on several variables, and maybe sooner.
Let me be frank: I don?t think this is a crazy idea.

This?ll take a lot of money? but he seems to have some fairly wealthy people
? billionaires, and more than one ? affiliated with this. So whatever idea
he?s got, he?s being backed very seriously for it.

I have lots of other thoughts on this, but I think I?ll hold them back for
now due to lack of info. The press release says the group is planning on
making the announcement on Tuesday, April 24 at 10:30 a.m. PDT. It?ll be
webcast, and I?ll post more info when I get it.

[UPDATE: Heh. MIT's Technology Review came to the same conclusion.]

Image credit: ESA 2010 MPS for OSIRIS Team.

MPS/UPD/LAM/IAA/RSSD/INTA/UPM/DASP/IDA

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/27776/

Are Ross Perot Jr. and Google's Founders Launching a New Asteroid Mining
Operation?

An impressive array of backers are behind the new firm Planetary Resources.

Christopher Mims 04/18/2012

    14 Comments


On Tuesday, a new company called Planetary Resources will announce its
existence at the Charles Simonyi Space Gallery at The Museum of Flight in
Seattle. It's not clear what the firm does, but its roster of backers incudes
Google cofounders Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, filmmaker James Cameron,
former Microsoftie (and space philanthropist) Charles Simonyi, and Ross Perot
Jr., son of the former presidential candidate.

According to the company's press release (below):

    [...] the company will overlay two critical sectors ? space exploration
and natural resources ? to add trillions of dollars to the global GDP. This
innovative start-up will create a new industry and a new definition of
?natural resources?.

That sounds like asteroid mining. Because what else is there in space that we
need here on earth? Certainly not a livable climate or a replacement for our
dwindling supplies of oil.

* * *

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 18, 2012

*** Media Alert *** Media Alert *** Media Alert ***

Space Exploration Company to Expand Earth's Resource Base

WHAT:             Join visionary Peter H. Diamandis, M.D.; leading commercial
space entrepreneur Eric Anderson; former NASA Mars mission manager Chris
Lewicki; and planetary scientist & veteran NASA astronaut Tom Jones, Ph.D. on
Tuesday, April 24 at 10:30 a.m. PDT in Seattle, or via webcast, as they
unveil a new space venture with a mission to help ensure humanity's
prosperity.

			Supported by an impressive investor and advisor
group, including Google?s Larry Page & Eric Schmidt, Ph.D.; film maker &
explorer James Cameron; Chairman of Intentional Software Corporation and
Microsoft?s former Chief Software Architect Charles Simonyi, Ph.D.; Founder
of Sherpalo and Google Board of Directors founding member K. Ram Shriram; and
Chairman of Hillwood and The Perot Group Ross Perot, Jr., the company will
overlay two critical sectors ? space exploration and natural resources ? to
add trillions of dollars to the global GDP. This innovative start-up will
create a new industry and a new definition of ?natural resources?.

The news conference will be held at the Museum of Flight in Seattle on
Tuesday, April 24 at 10:30 a.m. PDT and available online via webcast.

WHEN:             Tuesday, April 24

			10:30 a.m. PDT

WHO:               Charles Simonyi, Ph.D., Space Tourist, Planetary
Resources, Inc. Investor

Eric Anderson, Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, Planetary Resources, Inc.

Peter H. Diamandis, M.D., Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, Planetary Resources, Inc.

Chris Lewicki, President & Chief Engineer, Planetary Resources, Inc.

Tom Jones, Ph.D., Planetary Scientist, Veteran NASA Astronaut & Planetary
Resources, Inc. Advisor

WHERE:           Charles Simonyi Space Gallery at The Museum of Flight

9404 East Marginal Way South  

Seattle, WA 98108

Event will also be streamed online.
_______________________________________________
astro mailing list
astro at postbiota.org
http://postbiota.org/mailman/listinfo/astro



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Fri Apr 20 12:27:08 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2012 14:27:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Logical Fallacies
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a6x79MrF_X32GVJ3g_Kq78wskDpJCj7HO4GpB3uh2fMJg@mail.gmail.com>

That's fantastically concise, handy and clever. Going to make massive us of
that in Internet fora, rather than repeating ever and ever the same retorts.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Fri Apr 20 13:59:27 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:59:27 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Logical Fallacies
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a6x79MrF_X32GVJ3g_Kq78wskDpJCj7HO4GpB3uh2fMJg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6x79MrF_X32GVJ3g_Kq78wskDpJCj7HO4GpB3uh2fMJg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a4yQJ1DFgxfGRPsvwCXwJ__+EBqr3BH5iFKeE1tAm4ixg@mail.gmail.com>

My multitasking abilities must be declining... :-)

http://www.yourlogicalfallacyis.com/home

On 20 April 2012 14:27, Stefano Vaj <stefano.vaj at gmail.com> wrote:

> That's fantastically concise, handy and clever. Going to make massive us
> of that in Internet fora, rather than repeating ever and ever the same
> retorts.
>
> --
> Stefano Vaj
>



-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Apr 20 15:16:53 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2012 16:16:53 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Logical Fallacies
In-Reply-To: <CAPoR7a4yQJ1DFgxfGRPsvwCXwJ__+EBqr3BH5iFKeE1tAm4ixg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPoR7a6x79MrF_X32GVJ3g_Kq78wskDpJCj7HO4GpB3uh2fMJg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPoR7a4yQJ1DFgxfGRPsvwCXwJ__+EBqr3BH5iFKeE1tAm4ixg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhvJRhK+X+8_ZEHmXBsf4CPNO4KZJRO6h1fw4ePQit=gQ@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/20 Stefano Vaj muttered:
> My multitasking abilities must be declining... :-)
>
> http://www.yourlogicalfallacyis.com/home
>

I like the fallacy fallacy.
Presuming that because a claim has been poorly argued, or a fallacy
has been made, that it is necessarily wrong.
Much of the time a debate is won not because the victor is right, but
because s/he is better at debating than their opponent.

So, if you jump in to help argue the case and are even worse at
arguing, then that would be
the fallacy fallacy fallacy????

BillK


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat Apr 21 02:46:39 2012
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2012 22:46:39 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
Message-ID: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

I've been sold on the idea since I was five; I've just lacked the
billions to fund it.

<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/21/us-google-space-idUSBRE83K01R20120421>

(Reuters) - Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt and
billionaire co-founder Larry Page have teamed up with "Avatar"
director James Cameron and other investors to back an
ambitious space exploration and natural resources venture,
details of which will be unveiled next week.


-- David.



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 21 04:04:26 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2012 21:04:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of David Lubkin
Subject: [ExI] Finally!

>...I've been sold on the idea since I was five; I've just lacked the
billions to fund it.

<http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/21/us-google-space-idUSBRE83K01R2012
0421>  -- David.

_______________________________________________


So now you are a multi-billionaire?  Congratulations David!  We always knew
you had it in you.

spike



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat Apr 21 10:46:43 2012
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 06:46:43 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <201204211046.q3LAkvu8002722@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Spike wrote:

>So now you are a multi-billionaire?  Congratulations David!  We always knew
>you had it in you.

I keep my holdings in friends. You're only semi-liquid, but I get a
substantial return on investment.


-- David.



From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sat Apr 21 11:28:27 2012
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 04:28:27 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Vivapary evolving in birds?
Message-ID: <1335007707.38873.YahooMailNeo@web160604.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/17769677
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From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sat Apr 21 13:19:51 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 07:19:51 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>


Extropians,

Obviously, even if there is one billionaire he can't do much alone.  
It's all about building consensus, finding out how many people share a 
desire to do these kinds of things, and then working together.  If we 
can do that, it's already easy, there is plenty of money to go around.  
Many hands make light work and make all things easy.

Forcefully taxing government needs to focus on the minimum 'safety nets' 
for all people and such, but that shouldn't stop the rich from freely 
reaching for the stars.  All that's needed is the ability to build 
consensus and better organize and co-operate, since lonely people can do 
nothing by themselves, even if the do have billions.

You know, kind of like we do with the consensus building, leaderless 
system at canonizer.com.  What is the most important things you'd like 
to be working on?  canonizer.com/topic.asp/90

The only hard part is knowing, concisely and quantitatively what 
everyone wants.  There are enough rich people now so that getting it is 
very easy, if we can just find better ways to co-operate.

Brent Allsop




On 4/20/2012 10:04 PM, spike wrote:
>> ... On Behalf Of David Lubkin
> Subject: [ExI] Finally!
>
>> ...I've been sold on the idea since I was five; I've just lacked the
> billions to fund it.
>
> <http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/21/us-google-space-idUSBRE83K01R2012
> 0421>   -- David.
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> So now you are a multi-billionaire?  Congratulations David!  We always knew
> you had it in you.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sat Apr 21 13:28:01 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 15:28:01 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
 <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a5KcTZ1uQqWzx54bjAPP7kg46Wx2XqH+-rVC76sEyS1-Q@mail.gmail.com>

On 21 April 2012 15:19, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:

> Obviously, even if there is one billionaire he can't do much alone.  It's
> all about building consensus, finding out how many people share a desire to
> do these kinds of things, and then working together.  If we can do that,
> it's already easy, there is plenty of money to go around.  Many hands make
> light work and make all things easy.
>

SF, transhumanism, space fan movements, technophilia, etc. do not appear to
have made for the time being such a grand dent amongst western bureaucrats
and politicians and their perception of their respective costituencies, but
if they ever achieved anything good is to have got on board a few US
super-rich individuals... :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 21 13:53:20 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 06:53:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
Subject: Re: [ExI] Finally!


>...Obviously, even if there is one billionaire he can't do much alone...
Brent Allsop

If one is a billionaire, one is never alone.  She can hire arbitrarily many
brains to work on her ideas.  Example, Peter Thiel.  He is one of ours.  It
is remarkable how having a ton of money causes people to see things your
way.  Consensus quickly follows.

Brent here's my offer: as soon as I make my first billion (US, not Zimbabwe
dollars) I will hire you to head the Qualia Foundation for Consensus
Building.

spike

  
 




From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sat Apr 21 15:46:15 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 09:46:15 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>


Spike,

So, you want me to be your bitch, doing your bidding, or your out - not 
willing to help at all - otherwise?  I would be willing to do it, if 
there was enough money in what I wanted to do.  Sure, I can be bought.  
But I still think if we could find everyone interested in qualia and 
consensus building, we could way fund more than even a $billion, and we 
wouldn't be beholden to any morally bottle necked individual.  And I 
think it's still going to take a bit more than a $billion to discover 
and fully achieve phenomenal mind uploading.  (which, by the way would 
solve all world problems, including aging, disease, expensive, risky, 
space travel... making these early space efforts still a complete moral 
waist of time leading to the damnation of how many more people 
unnecessarily rotting in the grave?)

Sure, Thiel is doing great things, along with a bunch of other rich 
transhumanists like Branson hiring, Burt Rutan.  LIke hotel billionaire 
Robert Bigalow funding Bigelow Aerospace.  Gazilionar Jeff Greason 
starting XCOR, after his rotary rocket endeavors.  Like Amazon.com 
founder Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin....  But what have any of those lonely 
immoral bastards accomplished, working alone like that, really?  Even 
Thiel, with his billions, is just barely able to get a rocket to low 
earth orbit, and even then he still needs lots of forceful bickering 
government funding to do even that.  All this do it yourself thinking, 
everyone waring with all other hierarchies, trying to compete with, and 
convert or outcompete everyone else, so thay can be the bastard at the 
top of some waring hierarchy, all missing the real moral point and what 
is most important, first, is the big problem, and the only reason we're 
morally blindly achieving so little, while fighting and bickering so 
much, while we continue to rot our loved ones in the grave.

At least this latest effort is more than one gazillionare working 
together.  Do you think even a handful of gazillionares like this will 
be enough to do something real, like mining of asteroids?  I have my 
doublts, they'll likely quickly find some minor issue to disagree on and 
take a my way or the highway path.  But if we could get everyone on 
board, knowing and doing what everyone at the bottom truly wanted, in an 
amplification of the moral wisdom of the crowd,  consensus building way, 
then we could all work together to really accomplish something great.

Brent Allsop






On 4/21/2012 7:53 AM, spike wrote:
>> ... On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Finally!
>
>
>> ...Obviously, even if there is one billionaire he can't do much alone...
> Brent Allsop
>
> If one is a billionaire, one is never alone.  She can hire arbitrarily many
> brains to work on her ideas.  Example, Peter Thiel.  He is one of ours.  It
> is remarkable how having a ton of money causes people to see things your
> way.  Consensus quickly follows.
>
> Brent here's my offer: as soon as I make my first billion (US, not Zimbabwe
> dollars) I will hire you to head the Qualia Foundation for Consensus
> Building.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 21 16:39:07 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 09:39:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <002801cd1fdd$45fcc7c0$d1f65740$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: Brent Allsop [mailto:brent.allsop at gmail.com] On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
...
Subject: Re: [ExI] Finally!


Spike,

>...So, you want me to be your bitch, doing your bidding, or your out - not
willing to help at all - otherwise?  I would be willing to do it, if there
was enough money in what I wanted to do.  Sure, I can be bought...


As we all can, but the reply seems unnecessarily negative.  We all have a
voice, but with sufficient funds, one can buy a really cool bullhorn.  With
even more funds, one can stack them end to end and really be heard.  This is
a good thing really, for if we have a ton of money, we can hire the people
we know are better at something that sounds good.  Qualia is a perfect
example in your case: I know I don't understand that concept.  I have
struggled, never have grokked that notion.  But you do.  So if I end up with
a ton of money, I hire you to explore that idea and explain it to me.
Everyone wins.

  
>...But I still think if we could find everyone interested in qualia and
consensus building, we could way fund more than even a $billion, and we
wouldn't be beholden to any morally bottle necked individual... Sure, Thiel
is doing great things, along with a bunch of other rich transhumanists like
Branson hiring, Burt Rutan...

I like the example of Peter Thiel, because he is a shining example of a guy
with a ton of money who is not morally bottlenecked.  He didn't steal his
money, didn't trick anyone out of it, he made it by being smart and
insightful.  He uses it to do useful things, such as PayPal, Facebook, to
support Eliezer's group and plenty of others doing worthwhile stuff.  If you
have ever heard him speak, it is an experience.  I heard Peter give a
lecture at one of the local Singularity events, and he blew my mind.  He
spoke for an hour without notes, tossing out more good memes per minute than
anyone.  I first met Peter when he was just finishing up at Stanford, before
he made it big with PayPal.  We knew back then he was a special guy.


>...  And I think it's still going to take a bit more than a $billion to
discover and fully achieve phenomenal mind uploading...  But if we could get
everyone on board, knowing and doing what everyone at the bottom truly
wanted, in an amplification of the moral wisdom of the crowd,  consensus
building way, then we could all work together to really accomplish something
great... Brent Allsop

Ja.  Having a ton of money and hiring the right people to create consensus
is currently one path.  This is so much more satisfying to me than doing
alternative things with money, such as building the Playboy mansion.  We
need more transhumanist minded people striking it really rich.  We could
create the transhumanist equivalent to Hefner's work.  Call it the Thinkboy
empire.  Or take the gender-specificity, build the Think-person mansion.
Were it not for people like Peter, people like Eliezer would be flipping
burgers for a living, assuming the local Burger King would hire him.

spike




From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 21 17:46:58 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 10:46:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] interesting comments by neal stephenson
Message-ID: <000b01cd1fe6$c07d51f0$4177f5d0$@att.net>


Stephenson gave a lecture for MIT and made some comments I thought were
right on:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/27775/

spike



From agrimes at speakeasy.net  Sat Apr 21 20:55:55 2012
From: agrimes at speakeasy.net (Alan Grimes)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:55:55 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>

Brent Allsop wrote:

> And I think it's still going to take a bit more than a $billion to discover
> and fully achieve phenomenal mind uploading. 

Google just confirmed that is the first time anyone has used that phrase
so therefore I don't know what you mean by that "phenomenal" adjective.

> (which, by the way would
> solve all world problems, including aging, disease, expensive, risky,
> space travel... making these early space efforts still a complete moral
> waist of time leading to the damnation of how many more people
> unnecessarily rotting in the grave?)

I completely disagree on all points.

> At least this latest effort is more than one gazillionare working
> together.  Do you think even a handful of gazillionares like this will
> be enough to do something real, like mining of asteroids?  I have my
> doublts, they'll likely quickly find some minor issue to disagree on and
> take a my way or the highway path.  But if we could get everyone on
> board, knowing and doing what everyone at the bottom truly wanted, in an
> amplification of the moral wisdom of the crowd,  consensus building way,
> then we could all work together to really accomplish something great.

Probably not. There are definitely some serious structural flaws with
our society such as all the invasions of other countries that no sane
person wants yet continue to get started at horribly regular intervals.
Most recently Libya was bombed back to the stone age, now it's Syria's
turn. =(

But there probably aren't that many people who would/could actually
strive for something interesting given vast resources...

Furthermore, I have a tree of technologies that I want to develop. My
willingness to cooperate with uploaders is strictly limited by the
overlap of my tree and your tree. Furthermore, I do not trust uploaders
to respect my values and therefore would not risk attempting to start a
mutual back-scratching session with them.

My reason for this mistrust is that when I express my point of view I
don't get in reply "oh, that's interesting, my point of view is
different" but rather "You're wrong and your philosophy is bad."
Furthermore I have consistently opposed taking steps that would unleash
a process that would render the universe incompatible with all known
forms of DNA based life. The uploaders don't seem to recognize that as a
priority at all.


-- 
E T F
N H E
D E D

Powers are not rights.



From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sat Apr 21 22:47:21 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:47:21 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
 <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
Message-ID: <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>




On 4/21/2012 2:55 PM, Alan Grimes wrote:
> Brent Allsop wrote:
>
>> And I think it's still going to take a bit more than a $billion to discover
>> and fully achieve phenomenal mind uploading.
> Google just confirmed that is the first time anyone has used that phrase
> so therefore I don't know what you mean by that "phenomenal" adjective.

I don't know what Google you're using, but I see the top hit in Google 
for "phenomenal uploading" being the canonizer camp that concisely 
defines just what it is, and which indicates how many people are in 
this, and the parent uploading is good camp.  It also makes reference to 
the emerging "scientific consensus" camp that describes that most 
experts believe more than simple uploading to an abstract ones and zeros 
based computer is required.  But if you're a "software = qualia" camp 
guy, then I just use the term 'uploading' so we can agree, as that is 
what is most important.

>
>> (which, by the way would
>> solve all world problems, including aging, disease, expensive, risky,
>> space travel... making these early space efforts still a complete moral
>> waist of time leading to the damnation of how many more people
>> unnecessarily rotting in the grave?)
> I completely disagree on all points.
Is that because you think uploading isn't possible?  Or do you think it 
is possible and just think such would be immoral?

>
>> At least this latest effort is more than one gazillionare working
>> together.  Do you think even a handful of gazillionares like this will
>> be enough to do something real, like mining of asteroids?  I have my
>> doublts, they'll likely quickly find some minor issue to disagree on and
>> take a my way or the highway path.  But if we could get everyone on
>> board, knowing and doing what everyone at the bottom truly wanted, in an
>> amplification of the moral wisdom of the crowd,  consensus building way,
>> then we could all work together to really accomplish something great.
> Probably not. There are definitely some serious structural flaws with
> our society such as all the invasions of other countries that no sane
> person wants yet continue to get started at horribly regular intervals.
> Most recently Libya was bombed back to the stone age, now it's Syria's
> turn. =(

No democracy has ever gone to war against any other democracy.  The only 
'structural flaw' I see is all the fear mongering all the remaining 
hierarchies are bread to do towards any competing hierarchy.  All the 
money the world spends on weapons, because of such easy we've been bread 
to support such, fear mongering bastard leaders is the only problem.

If we had the ability to go into Syria, North Korea... and survey for 
what the general population really wanted, it'd be trivial for them to 
just ignore their selfish leaders.  And the same goes for the 'Arab 
springs' that are now suffering through the 'Arab winter'  The only 
problem is, nobody is able to efficiently know what they all want, 
concisely and quantitatively, in an amplification of the wisdom of the 
entire crowd way.  Once you can know that, all wars and contentions 
stop, and everyone can finally, instead, co-operates and easily gets it 
all, for everyone.

>
> But there probably aren't that many people who would/could actually
> strive for something interesting given vast resources...
You don't see wikipedia as proof this assertion is wrong?  I sure do.  
The only reason people spend so much time still doing things like 
watching "Gilligans Island" and "Who's got Talent"... is because it is 
no fun being someone else bitch or fighting edit wars on wikipedia, or 
dreming about when they can be a billionair so everyone else will be 
their bitch.  But imagine if everyone could do what they wanted to do, 
and work on and support what they wanted to get done?  Achieving the 
millenium is easy, given all the resources and technology we now have.  
The only thing lacking is the ability to build consensus, find out what 
everyone wants, concisely and quantitatively, so we can finally stop 
fighting, bickering, fear mongering, and finally just get it all done.

> Furthermore, I have a tree of technologies that I want to develop. My
> willingness to cooperate with uploaders is strictly limited by the
> overlap of my tree and your tree.

And the overlap of everyone else out there.  You'll never get any of 
that done yourself, but if you canonize what you want, there is bound to 
be millions of others that share you're values, and interested in doing 
the same thing, even if I, or any other uploaders, aren't some of them.

> Furthermore, I do not trust uploaders
> to respect my values and therefore would not risk attempting to start a
> mutual back-scratching session with them.

No back scratching or compromises (as in being a bitch for some selfish 
leader of a hierarchy) required.  You just need to find the millions of 
people out there that want to do the same thing you do and work 
together.  What would you like to do that a million people that share 
you passion couldn't do?  The only important thing is that nobody get in 
the way of what anyone else wants.  And of course, if you don't 
'canonize' what you want, it kind of makes it impossible to keep in mind 
what to others may be a very 'immoral or mistaken' idea.

> My reason for this mistrust is that when I express my point of view I
> don't get in reply "oh, that's interesting, my point of view is
> different" but rather "You're wrong and your philosophy is bad."
What, you don't want to know, concicely and quantitatively,  when people 
think you're mistaken and your philosophy is bad, and how this is 
trending, according to all your chosen experts?  We created 
Canonizer.com, precisely because we want to have a place where we can 
fully communicate where experts think naive people are making mistakes, 
while still valuing what they believe, and if not fully supporting, at 
least doing all they can to not get in the way of anything you may 
want.  I may be saying you are wrong and imoral, but I'm still asking 
you to 'canonize' just what it is you still believe, so I can help you 
in any and all ways possible.


> Furthermore I have consistently opposed taking steps that would unleash
> a process that would render the universe incompatible with all known
> forms of DNA based life. The uploaders don't seem to recognize that as a
> priority at all.
>

It sounds like you are saying you're going to try to do all you can to 
stand in the way of what the expert consensus uploaders want to do?  It 
seems to me it'd be much more productive if you'd just concisely state 
what it is you want, so us uploaders will be sure not to get in your 
way, and get started, with all the millions that surely share your 
passion, for getting what it is you want, rather thin spending so much 
time and effort fighting against us in such a fear mongering way?

Brent Allsop







From seculartranshumanist at gmail.com  Sun Apr 22 00:39:59 2012
From: seculartranshumanist at gmail.com (Joseph Bloch)
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 20:39:59 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
 <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
 <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com> <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
 <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAOFRd6ip7Ztx1qVHWvisQk13u1UO45s0sw-FMwHr0aa_Lz56MA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 6:47 PM, Brent Allsop
<brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>
> On 4/21/2012 2:55 PM, Alan Grimes wrote:
>>
>> Google just confirmed that is the first time anyone has used that phrase
>> so therefore I don't know what you mean by that "phenomenal" adjective.
>
> I don't know what Google you're using, but I see the top hit in Google for
> "phenomenal uploading" being the canonizer camp that concisely defines just
> what it is, and which indicates how many people are in this, and the parent
> uploading is good camp.

I daresay he's using the Google that, when the phrase "phenomenal mind
uploading" is entered into it, only brings up this email thread,
because your original email was the first time it was ever used. That
phrase, not your redacted version, is what he was referring to (note
the inclusion of the word "mind" in there, which you had originally
used, and which you conveniently removed in your reply). And he is
correct. Nobody before you had ever used it. Whatever "the canonizer
camp" might think, nobody else cares.

> No democracy has ever gone to war against any other democracy.

That depends on your definition of "democracy". Does modern Russia
count as a democracy? If so, they certainly went to war against
Georgia in 2008, and both purport to have elected governments. Perhaps
your vaunted expert opinion consensus maintains the old canard you
trotted out, but fact contradicts it.

> What, you don't want to know, concicely and quantitatively, ?when people
> think you're mistaken and your philosophy is bad, and how this is trending,
> according to all your chosen experts? ?We created Canonizer.com, precisely
> because we want to have a place where we can fully communicate where experts
> think naive people are making mistakes, while still valuing what they
> believe, and if not fully supporting, at least doing all they can to not get
> in the way of anything you may want. ?I may be saying you are wrong and
> imoral, but I'm still asking you to 'canonize' just what it is you still
> believe, so I can help you in any and all ways possible.

Once again you trot out that internet backwater as some sort of
solution to all the world's problems. There is a reason it hasn't
caught on. But I daresay you're too close to the problem to see what
it is. You live in a world of nails, and canonizer.com is your hammer.

> It sounds like you are saying you're going to try to do all you can to stand
> in the way of what the expert consensus uploaders want to do? ?It seems to
> me it'd be much more productive if you'd just concisely state what it is you
> want, so us uploaders will be sure not to get in your way, and get started,
> with all the millions that surely share your passion, for getting what it is
> you want, rather thin spending so much time and effort fighting against us
> in such a fear mongering way?

I don't have a dog in the uploaders vs. non-uploaders debate, but I do
know that we could convincingly upload your personality to a computer
today. Just have it spit out the words "canonizer,com" into 50% of
every email thread, regardless of topic, and it would be a convincing
facsimile.

Joseph



From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Apr 22 05:31:31 2012
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 01:31:31 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <CAOFRd6ip7Ztx1qVHWvisQk13u1UO45s0sw-FMwHr0aa_Lz56MA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
 <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
 <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com> <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
 <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
 <CAOFRd6ip7Ztx1qVHWvisQk13u1UO45s0sw-FMwHr0aa_Lz56MA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKD7FjyxcTvnK4_tfDg8vm_HD_1RWQjt1Y4YVfQ54Xw7g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 8:39 PM, Joseph Bloch
<seculartranshumanist at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 6:47 PM, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>> On 4/21/2012 2:55 PM, Alan Grimes wrote:
>>> Google just confirmed that is the first time anyone has used that phrase
>>> so therefore I don't know what you mean by that "phenomenal" adjective.
>>
>> I don't know what Google you're using, but I see the top hit in Google for
>> "phenomenal uploading" being the canonizer camp that concisely defines just
>> what it is, and which indicates how many people are in this, and the parent
>> uploading is good camp.
>
> I daresay he's using the Google that, when the phrase "phenomenal mind
> uploading" is entered into it, only brings up this email thread,
> because your original email was the first time it was ever used. That
> phrase, not your redacted version, is what he was referring to (note
> the inclusion of the word "mind" in there, which you had originally
> used, and which you conveniently removed in your reply). And he is
> correct. Nobody before you had ever used it. Whatever "the canonizer
> camp" might think, nobody else cares.
[blah blah blah snipped because it was rude and I feel it's just as
rude to requote]
> I don't have a dog in the uploaders vs. non-uploaders debate, but I do
> know that we could convincingly upload your personality to a computer
> today. Just have it spit out the words "canonizer,com" into 50% of
> every email thread, regardless of topic, and it would be a convincing
> facsimile.

Why such venom?  If you don't like reading Brent, you could surely
have created a filter in your email in less time than writing ...
well... all that you wrote.

I don't expect that everyone will get along all the time - but can't
we be mature enough to ignore each other in a civil way?


From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Apr 22 08:31:31 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 09:31:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
 <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
 <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com> <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
 <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgPe2rQE_qZkT52f3Qxx23kqU9EfLVWUHEKyHpBt00cvw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 11:47 PM, Brent Allsop  wrote:
<snip>
> It sounds like you are saying you're going to try to do all you can to stand
> in the way of what the expert consensus uploaders want to do? ?It seems to
> me it'd be much more productive if you'd just concisely state what it is you
> want, so us uploaders will be sure not to get in your way, and get started,
> with all the millions that surely share your passion, for getting what it is
> you want, rather thin spending so much time and effort fighting against us
> in such a fear mongering way?
>
>

I don't see how cataloguing different opinions is going to remove
competition, disagreement, arguing, fighting, etc.

We don't live in a world where everyone can get what they want.

Everything from religions, politics, manufacturing soft drinks, etc.
involves trying to destroy competitive organisations. 'Why can't
everybody just get along?'  Because we are resource limited. Even when
just the people themselves are the resource you are trying to
accumulate.

If I can't drive my car because you've got the oil I need, then I'm
likely to try and get it from you by any means possible.

Cataloguing opinions is useful, like a dictionary. But it won't stop
opposing opinion groups fighting.


BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sun Apr 22 13:14:55 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 06:14:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgPe2rQE_qZkT52f3Qxx23kqU9EfLVWUHEKyHpBt00cvw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
 <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net> <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
 <CAL_armgPe2rQE_qZkT52f3Qxx23kqU9EfLVWUHEKyHpBt00cvw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <001501cd2089$e96b1590$bc4140b0$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of BillK
...
Subject: Re: [ExI] Finally!

On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 11:47 PM, Brent Allsop  wrote:
<snip>
...
>> stand in the way of what the expert consensus uploaders want to do? ?
...

>...I don't see how cataloguing different opinions is going to remove
competition, disagreement, arguing, fighting, etc...Cataloguing opinions is
useful, like a dictionary. But it won't stop opposing opinion groups
fighting...BillK

_______________________________________________

I have been looking for some means of multiplying opinions by the level of
information in the opinion holder.  We have an informal way of doing that
now: we find subject matter experts.  But we don't have a way to rigorously
scale the value of an opinion, or map how an opinion might be influenced by
external factors, such as religious or political views.  The canonizer might
do something like that, or have the capacity to be expanded in that way.

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Apr 22 14:47:19 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 15:47:19 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <001501cd2089$e96b1590$bc4140b0$@att.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net>
 <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net>
 <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com> <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
 <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
 <CAL_armgPe2rQE_qZkT52f3Qxx23kqU9EfLVWUHEKyHpBt00cvw@mail.gmail.com>
 <001501cd2089$e96b1590$bc4140b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgpEjN1jP2HxZ8Fj+trKtf75coj5ApoXooNUsiKMkW6rw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Apr 22, 2012 at 2:14 PM, spike wrote:
> I have been looking for some means of multiplying opinions by the level of
> information in the opinion holder. ?We have an informal way of doing that
> now: we find subject matter experts. ?But we don't have a way to rigorously
> scale the value of an opinion, or map how an opinion might be influenced by
> external factors, such as religious or political views. ?The canonizer might
> do something like that, or have the capacity to be expanded in that way.
>
>


I fear we are working in a small backwater while the tide of ignorance
sweeps past us.

A nice article published a few days ago..
<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-talk-huppke-obit-facts-20120419,0,809470.story>

Facts, 360 B.C.-A.D. 2012
In memoriam: After years of health problems, Facts has finally died.
By Rex W. Huppke, Chicago Tribune reporter    April 19, 2012

To the shock of most sentient beings, Facts died Wednesday, April 18,
after a long battle for relevancy with the 24-hour news cycle, blogs
and the Internet. Though few expected Facts to pull out of its
years-long downward spiral, the official cause of death was from
injuries suffered last week when Florida Republican Rep. Allen West
steadfastly declared that as many as 81 of his fellow members of
theU.S. House of Representatives are communists.

"There was an erosion of any kind of collective sense of what's true
or how you would go about verifying any truth claims," Poovey said.
"Opinion has become the new truth. And many people who already have
opinions see in the 'news' an affirmation of the opinion they already
had, and that confirms their opinion as fact."

"American society has lost confidence that there's a single
alternative," she said. "Anybody can express an opinion on a blog or
any other outlet and there's no system of verification or
double-checking, you just say whatever you want to and it gets
magnified. It's just kind of a bizarre world in which one person's
opinion counts as much as anybody else's."

Facts is survived by two brothers, Rumor and Innuendo, and a sister,
Emphatic Assertion.
-------------------

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sun Apr 22 15:27:47 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2012 08:27:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgpEjN1jP2HxZ8Fj+trKtf75coj5ApoXooNUsiKMkW6rw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
 <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net> <4F9338F9.6010404@canonizer.com>
 <CAL_armgPe2rQE_qZkT52f3Qxx23kqU9EfLVWUHEKyHpBt00cvw@mail.gmail.com>
 <001501cd2089$e96b1590$bc4140b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgpEjN1jP2HxZ8Fj+trKtf75coj5ApoXooNUsiKMkW6rw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003001cd209c$79868b20$6c93a160$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] Finally!

On Sun, Apr 22, 2012 at 2:14 PM, spike wrote:
>>... I have been looking for some means of multiplying opinions by the
level of information in the opinion holder. ?We have an informal way ...

>...I fear we are working in a small backwater while the tide of ignorance
sweeps past us.

>...<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-talk-huppke-obit-facts-2012
0419,0,809470.story>

>...Facts is survived by two brothers, Rumor and Innuendo, and a sister,
Emphatic Assertion.
------------------- BillK

_______________________________________________

I can't imagine any good way of filtering out the influence of business,
religion and politics from scientific questions.  We live in an era when
those forces swamp the quiet learned voices of science.  Two modern poster
child examples: evolution and global warming.

spike




From spike66 at att.net  Mon Apr 23 07:49:07 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:49:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] this is your brain on faith
Message-ID: <002301cd2125$9062e800$b128b800$@att.net>

What do you guys make of this?

 

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/04/22/can-faith-reside-within-brain/

 

There are comments in there which have the ring of truth, almost appropriate
for an afterword to Sagan's excellent work the Demon Haunted World.

 

spike

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From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Mon Apr 23 12:02:14 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 14:02:14 +0200
Subject: [ExI] this is your brain on faith
In-Reply-To: <002301cd2125$9062e800$b128b800$@att.net>
References: <002301cd2125$9062e800$b128b800$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a56sY1hfrZr43c05W+fbUQT8bQ0MZtqUDjR6z7FBWMSZg@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/23 spike <spike66 at att.net>

> What do you guys make of this?
>
>
>
> http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/04/22/can-faith-reside-within-brain/
>
>
>
> There are comments in there which have the ring of truth, almost
> appropriate for an afterword to Sagan?s excellent work the Demon Haunted
> World.
>

Sounds to me as an absurdly parochial view of "spirituality".

"Jesus" and "Satana" fighting for one's "soul" is such an obvious cultural
artifact that all the discussion is akin to one upon the fact that the
letter "s" after all may be encoded in the brain as a marker of grammatical
plural.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Apr 23 14:24:35 2012
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 07:24:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] A use for canonizer/consensus
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>

Given an understanding of the physics of lasers for beamed energy and
hydrogen for reaction mass, there seems to be a very strong feedback
between the existence of power satellites and low cost transportation
to build them.

In fact, the physics and feedback indicates that future energy costs
will be very low.  This seems to be inevitable if you build power
satellites at all and take the beamed energy route to power lifting
the parts.  The energy cost looks to be so low that solar energy from
space will displace fossil fuels by underpricing them.  (Half or
less.)

Further, with only a ten percent feedback, that is dedicating ten
percent of new power sats to propulsion, the construction rate triples
every year, offering the possibility of ending the fossil fuel era in
a decade.

The minimum investment to reach the self sustaining scale is not
precisely known, but seems likely to exceed $10 B and to be less than
$100 B.

I can go into the technical and math details if anyone cares to see them.

Keith


From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Mon Apr 23 15:52:49 2012
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 10:52:49 -0500
Subject: [ExI] this is your brain on faith
In-Reply-To: <002301cd2125$9062e800$b128b800$@att.net>
References: <002301cd2125$9062e800$b128b800$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfg50nBxdGmmEpUDXfds-6rqG9D3rgUVLN-aotoaLrz9g@mail.gmail.com>

Very disappointing, the article starts in a acceptable manner trying to
list all the evidence that spiritual experiences are nothing else than
neurons firing then in a strange twist the authors invoke dark matter and
the possible holes in scientific understanding of the world to still give a
last chance to a mystical explanation of spiritual experiences, to justify
the ignorance of faith, to allow for it to be still considered a virtue.
It will just add to the confusion of believers that use often science in a
completely unjustified way to support their belief, as for example energy
conservation to use as evidence that consciousness would survive death of
the physical body.

Giovanni


On Mon, Apr 23, 2012 at 2:49 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> What do you guys make of this?****
>
> ** **
>
> http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/04/22/can-faith-reside-within-brain/**
> **
>
> ** **
>
> There are comments in there which have the ring of truth, almost
> appropriate for an afterword to Sagan?s excellent work the Demon Haunted
> World.****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From eric at m056832107.syzygy.com  Mon Apr 23 17:05:31 2012
From: eric at m056832107.syzygy.com (Eric Messick)
Date: 23 Apr 2012 17:05:31 -0000
Subject: [ExI] Planetary Resources (Was: A use for canonizer/consensus)
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20120423170531.11103.qmail@syzygy.com>

Keith writes:
>Given an understanding of the physics of lasers for beamed energy and
>hydrogen for reaction mass, there seems to be a very strong feedback
>between the existence of power satellites and low cost transportation
>to build them.
>[...]
>The minimum investment to reach the self sustaining scale is not
>precisely known, but seems likely to exceed $10 B and to be less than
>$100 B.

Given the recent announcement by a bunch of billionaires that they
want to try to capture a near earth asteroid, perhaps that could be
the way to start down this feedback loop.

Their web site isn't live yet, but you can sign up for an email list
at:

http://www.planetaryresources.com/

They're claiming an announcement tomorrow (Tue, April 24), so perhaps
more info will show up on their website then.

If they're willing to spend the money to capture an asteroid without
building the heavy lift infrastructure necessary for launching power
satellites, they'll at least have gotten some of the necessary mass
into place.  It seems we'd still be stuck sending expensively canned
astronauts up to do the actual construction.  Big problem is of course
the need to fabricate the parts in orbit instead of with the more
developed infrastructure on the ground.

My gut reaction is that it's the more expensive way to go, but if
no one is willing to fund laser launch, and they are willing to try
asteroid capture...

The media was questioning their economic sanity, saying that it
wouldn't even be worth it to de-orbit gold, so clearly they're
thinking along the lines of mass resources in orbit.  Perhaps they're
already considering beamed power.

-eric


From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Tue Apr 24 03:42:36 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 21:42:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] A use for canonizer/consensus
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F96212C.1060309@canonizer.com>


Hi Keith,

Yea, obviously no need to convince me.  Having a place where more people 
can be found, and so more can join and brainstorm about, and work 
towards such in a prioritized way certainly wouldn't hurt.

Is there such a place, anywhere, where people that want to work on such 
exciting new projects can find each other, and work together, in a 
leaderless / networked way?

I think we should definitely have an entry for such a project on the 
prioritized list of things for humanity to do we've started here:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/120

and, like the consciousness survey project, we could start some 
dedicated survey topics where people could sign up, and start 
contributing ideas for how to best move forward with such.  I'd 
certainly delegate my support to you, Keith, as I consider you much more 
of an expert on this topic, than me.  In other words, any camp you'd 
join, dictating what we should do, on such survey topics, my vote, and 
votes of anyone delegating to me, would follow you.

Brent Allsop




On 4/23/2012 8:24 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
> Given an understanding of the physics of lasers for beamed energy and
> hydrogen for reaction mass, there seems to be a very strong feedback
> between the existence of power satellites and low cost transportation
> to build them.
>
> In fact, the physics and feedback indicates that future energy costs
> will be very low.  This seems to be inevitable if you build power
> satellites at all and take the beamed energy route to power lifting
> the parts.  The energy cost looks to be so low that solar energy from
> space will displace fossil fuels by underpricing them.  (Half or
> less.)
>
> Further, with only a ten percent feedback, that is dedicating ten
> percent of new power sats to propulsion, the construction rate triples
> every year, offering the possibility of ending the fossil fuel era in
> a decade.
>
> The minimum investment to reach the self sustaining scale is not
> precisely known, but seems likely to exceed $10 B and to be less than
> $100 B.
>
> I can go into the technical and math details if anyone cares to see them.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Tue Apr 24 12:54:13 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 14:54:13 +0200
Subject: [ExI] A use for canonizer/consensus
In-Reply-To: <4F96212C.1060309@canonizer.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6oTzfjFfmhLGTzhs6QtbNmGpLuxt3hA8OzHgatmESs=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <4F96212C.1060309@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a50Uj31JQ6u1fOOYc8xSBbbhY5MwATTbQ8cLdO96b23hg@mail.gmail.com>

On 24 April 2012 05:42, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:

>
> Yea, obviously no need to convince me.
>

Really? So you *actually* like the Canonizer? Don't tell us... :-)

Seriously, you have (almost) persuaded me to look into the thing, whatever
it may be, so I think that at the end of the day I am subject to evangelism
like the next guy. :-)

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr 24 17:43:51 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 10:43:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
Message-ID: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>

 

Guys do you remember these?  I didn't own one, but one of my classmates did
in 1982.  The rubber chicklet keys didn't last very long, but it would run
for hours at a time once you got the program in there, so it was good for
the kinds of stuff I wanted to do: math calculations that usually took a
long time.  This was before spreadsheets.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17776666

 

Those too young to know of the early 80s in low-end computing have it way
too good.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Apr 24 18:24:55 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 19:24:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>

2012/4/24 spike <spike66 at att.net>:
> Guys do you remember these?? I didn?t own one, but one of my classmates did
> in 1982.? The rubber chicklet keys didn?t last very long, but it would run
> for hours at a time once you got the program in there, so it was good for
> the kinds of stuff I wanted to do: math calculations that usually took a
> long time.? This was before spreadsheets.
>
>

I never owned a speccy though I tried some friends machines.

I'm clearing out my loft at the moment and discovered my old Atari 800XL.
<http://www.atarimuseum.com/computers/8BITS/XL/800xl/800xl.htm>

I remember that I bought it so I could play 'Star Raiders' which was
the hot game at that time!
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Raiders>

BillK



From max at maxmore.com  Tue Apr 24 18:09:24 2012
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 11:09:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wXiwP-vharsyQMfsfLM9qugR5rB57fuavns4zip8p=W_Q@mail.gmail.com>

Oh yes. I owned its predecessor, the ZX81, with its whopping 1 K of RAM.

--Max


2012/4/24 spike <spike66 at att.net>

> ** **
>
> Guys do you remember these?  I didn?t own one, but one of my classmates
> did in 1982.  The rubber chicklet keys didn?t last very long, but it would
> run for hours at a time once you got the program in there, so it was good
> for the kinds of stuff I wanted to do: math calculations that usually took
> a long time.  This was before spreadsheets.****
>
> ** **
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17776666****
>
> ** **
>
> Those too young to know of the early 80s in low-end computing have it way
> too good.****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480/905-1906 ext 113
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr 24 19:11:13 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 12:11:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <008001cd224e$04ca6960$0e5f3c20$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30

2012/4/24 spike <spike66 at att.net>:
>>... Guys do you remember these?? I didn?t own one, but one of my 
> classmates did in 1982.? The rubber chicklet keys didn?t last very 
> long, but it would run for hours at a time once you got the program in 
> there, so it was good for the kinds of stuff I wanted to do: math 
> calculations that usually took a long time.? This was before spreadsheets.


>...I'm clearing out my loft at the moment and discovered my old Atari
800XL.
<http://www.atarimuseum.com/computers/8BITS/XL/800xl/800xl.htm>  BillK



Take this word of wisdom from your old pal the geezer Spike.  If you are
cleaning out and find any old computer from the 80s, and even better, from
the 70s, find a place for it somewhere and keep it.  Don't worry if it
doesn't work or you don't have all the peripherals, such as, like, memory.
Just keep it somewhere.  Fifty years from now you will be glad you did.

spike




From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr 24 18:52:33 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 19:52:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F96F671.1080204@aleph.se>

On 24/04/2012 18:43, spike wrote:
>
> Guys do you remember these?
>
Oh yes... this is how I spent the 80s, more or less.

I need to send a congratulation card to my speccy. It is nicely packaged 
next to my ZX81 up in Stockholm.

The wonder of the machine was that it was graspable: all aspects were 
more or less known, from the hardware over the assembler to the limited 
operating system. One could in principle understand it completely, no 
aspects were secret or inaccessible.

This kind of machine made you very aware of the importance of optimizing 
code. Kids today don't know how good they have it and waste so much 
resources...

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Apr 24 19:34:52 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 20:34:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <008001cd224e$04ca6960$0e5f3c20$@att.net>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <008001cd224e$04ca6960$0e5f3c20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F97005C.1050000@aleph.se>

On 24/04/2012 20:11, spike wrote:
> Take this word of wisdom from your old pal the geezer Spike. If you 
> are cleaning out and find any old computer from the 80s, and even 
> better, from the 70s, find a place for it somewhere and keep it. Don't 
> worry if it doesn't work or you don't have all the peripherals, such 
> as, like, memory. Just keep it somewhere. Fifty years from now you 
> will be glad you did.

That reminds me of a mild worry I have: how long will I be able to 
connect my Speccy to the television set? Do they still have analog 
antenna input, or do we need to start looking for an A/D converter?

(Obviously TV-less)

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Apr 24 22:00:09 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 23:00:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <4F97005C.1050000@aleph.se>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <008001cd224e$04ca6960$0e5f3c20$@att.net>
 <4F97005C.1050000@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjsWPPZHRh8LcKo5EAVS_wK5R+fW4=FKeB4YezpFGi+hw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> That reminds me of a mild worry I have: how long will I be able to connect
> my Speccy to the television set? Do they still have analog antenna input, or
> do we need to start looking for an A/D converter?
>
> (Obviously TV-less)
>


The analogue transmission has been switched off in the UK. But my new
Freeview set gets the digital signals from the same aerial and the
aerial plug is still available on the set. There are additional
sockets for connecting other devices.

But I'm going to store an old 14" portable analogue TV with my old
Atari 800XL just in case.

I've just thrown out boxes of old 5 1/4 " floppy disks, as I couldn't
see any point in keeping them.  :)


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Apr 24 22:46:17 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:46:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <4F97005C.1050000@aleph.se>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhKPyNtXmHE1Z4sD=DkaQuRMK60H12RQF0otsVBD==-Zw@mail.gmail.com>
 <008001cd224e$04ca6960$0e5f3c20$@att.net> <4F97005C.1050000@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <000001cd226c$0f99c340$2ecd49c0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Tuesday, April 24, 2012 12:35 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30

On 24/04/2012 20:11, spike wrote:
> >... If you are cleaning out and find any old computer from the 80s, and
even 
> better, from the 70s, find a place for it somewhere and keep it...

>...That reminds me of a mild worry I have: how long will I be able to
connect my Speccy to the television set? Do they still have analog antenna
input, or do we need to start looking for an A/D converter? -- Anders
Sandberg,


If you still have one of those old portable TVs find a corner in the attic
for that too.  Post-CRT televisions don't have what you need to run old time
computers in general.  

There is a store down the street which keeps old junk like that: Weird Stuff
Warehouse.  We had a laser test station which used reams of code developed
on an HP9826A series 200 computer from 1984.  It was obsolete by the time it
hit the market, for the Mac was coming, no stopping the GUI.  But our
software was specific to HP's 9826, so the most cost-effective solution was
to give Weird Stuff four thousand dollars for one that still worked.

What amazes me is how cool we thought the 9826 was in its day, since it had
that Motorola 68000 processor, and oh my, are we high-tech or what?  We had
it going 8 megahertz!  We even tried overclocking it, and it ran fine up to
about 11 MHz.  We were so uptown with that setup.  All you needed to do was
put a piece of tape over the blinking LED, which would otherwise drive you
insane, and you were ready for some serious computing on that thing.

spike



From natasha at natasha.cc  Thu Apr 26 13:35:42 2012
From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More)
Date: Thu, 26 Apr 2012 08:35:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Extropy and McKenna
Message-ID: <008901cd23b1$7a6586f0$6f3094d0$@cc>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctjNqQPnAk8
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctjNqQPnAk8&fb_source=message&noredirect=1>
&fb_source=message&noredirect=1

 

The music alone set my teeth on edge.

 

 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Apr 26 17:50:15 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 26 Apr 2012 10:50:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Extropy and McKenna
In-Reply-To: <008901cd23b1$7a6586f0$6f3094d0$@cc>
References: <008901cd23b1$7a6586f0$6f3094d0$@cc>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQQWHfsT16Qhzs86Du9kjpcLV1HZmpTr9X6H=a4zSJaTg@mail.gmail.com>

More apoctalyptic nonsense.  He claims to measure
"Newness" as if it could be quantified, when it is by
definition subjective.  (What is new to me might not
be new to you.)  That he needs music and art to
make his case is not disproof, but does make his
case less convincing.  Likewise for the "coincidence"
between his projected date of significance and the
end of the Mayan calendar (which has been amply
shown to merely end without implying any
apocalypse, in exactly the same sense as our
calendars end every year; only cranks still apply
much significance to it, and since he does despite it
being a "coincidence"...).

On Thu, Apr 26, 2012 at 6:35 AM, Natasha Vita-More <natasha at natasha.cc> wrote:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctjNqQPnAk8&fb_source=message&noredirect=1
>
>
>
> The music alone set my teeth on edge.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Sat Apr 28 00:06:43 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2012 18:06:43 -0600
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
Message-ID: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>


Folks,

I was just wondering if anyone else is as frustrated as I am about all 
the blind to the future, talking heads, news pundats, politicians, and 
so on, so bent on "Controlling the cost of health care".

If we want to the average life span to continue on it's exponentially 
growing trajectory, we, as a society, need to be ready to pay the 
exponentially growing cost of funding such.  There is an exponentially 
growing number of things physicians can do to help us live longer, and 
even though the costs of all such are dropping, dramatically, none of it 
is going to be free, especially the initial development of all such.

We simply need some visionary leaders that can see the future, and to 
help is enjoy paying more of what we earn in life for something that is 
SOO worth it, and give up this blind, immoral, destructive, primitive, 
and evil attitude that "health care costs need to be controlled" as if 
we should expect them to stay what they were in the dark ages, when 
doctors could do nothing at all.

Brent Allsop










From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Fri Apr 27 23:31:15 2012
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2012 17:31:15 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Avitar idea leads to Cryonics....
Message-ID: <4F9B2C43.6080209@canonizer.com>


Extropians,

I had a great experience this morning during my physical therapy.  I had 
surgery on some rotator cuff tendon tears last year and have been going 
to physical therapy at this clinic 3 times a week since then.  (Almost 
back to normal, ready to graduate)  You get to know everyone there quite 
well, and have some great conversations about life, and so on.

Today, my physical therapists opened up with something like: "I bet 
you're like one of those guys that plans on having your head frozen when 
you die?" and of course was glad she recognized that, and very happy she 
brought this issue up for everyone to talk about.  This started a fire 
storm of conversation by everyone there, some saying things like: "I 
wish I had a spouse that could offord $80K for something like that." to 
"are you going to enjoy being frozen with the aliens from Area 51?"  
Some of them were real good questions like how are the bodies stored, 
and so on.  I of course responded to all such with the standard replies 
I'm sure all you cryonicists know so well.  Most of the curious and 
positive questions were coming from the younger people, and the 
ridiculing questions from the older people.  And it was all quite 
positive and fun, as things started getting back to getting some 
physical therapy done.

Then, quite a bit later, after she and everyone had been obviosly 
thinking about it very deeply she started the conversation up again 
with:   "So you're probably going to have your own 'Avatar' then?".  It 
took me a minute to fully realize what she was saying, and to recover 
from the shock from the way she phrased the question in a way indicating 
she was assuming it was going to eventually be reality.  But then I 
finally responded with: "Yea, my own avatar like body, then I'll try an 
eagle body, a dolphin body, ... and anything else I may fancy wanting to 
be...."

It made me realize just how powerful this Avitar meme is to help people 
to think about themselves as so much more than just this primitive 
mortal body, and what is going to some day be possible, along the lines 
of disembodied or uploaded Avitar experiences.  And I realized from this 
experience, once you get people there, it's a very small step to cryonics.

Brent Allsop





















From anders at aleph.se  Sat Apr 28 01:27:41 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 02:27:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <4F9B478D.4010501@aleph.se>

On 28/04/2012 01:06, Brent Allsop wrote:
>
> If we want to the average life span to continue on it's exponentially 
> growing trajectory, we, as a society, need to be ready to pay the 
> exponentially growing cost of funding such.  There is an exponentially 
> growing number of things physicians can do to help us live longer, and 
> even though the costs of all such are dropping, dramatically, none of 
> it is going to be free, especially the initial development of all such.

Well, the real question is how much health per dollar you can get. All 
increases in cost are not due to better options. And given the health 
disparities between the US and Europe despite the higher US costs of 
care, it is pretty safe to say that you have plenty of room for 
efficiency improvement. However, health care systems seem to be 
excellent at locking themselves into local optima with strong incumbents 
and big costs of switching to other systems, so fixing issues like that 
might be hard.

As a card-carrying crazy libertarian I am fine with the existence of 
very expensive health care options, even when few can afford them. 
Technology will often lower their prices over time, their development 
paid for by rich early adopters. But it would be stupid for any 
consumer, whether individual or a group, not to try to find an optimal 
balance between health and cost. We might have different setpoints 
(another reason for aiming for a more individualistic system), but few 
if any would pay *all* their disposable income for a bit of extra health.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 01:30:08 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2012 18:30:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRG7X3Ge+W2qPFzGbFwt-42TZawy9orcT4uunmYQB2xTw@mail.gmail.com>

Show them the exponentially increasing income stream first.  Otherwise,
they believe they won't be able to pay exponentially increasing costs, no
matter how important.

Also, not all costs of health care are actually about health care.  Quite a
bit is guarding against opportunistic lawyers, waiting for doctors to make
the slightest mistake.

On Fri, Apr 27, 2012 at 5:06 PM, Brent Allsop
<brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
> I was just wondering if anyone else is as frustrated as I am about all the
> blind to the future, talking heads, news pundats, politicians, and so on, so
> bent on "Controlling the cost of health care".
>
> If we want to the average life span to continue on it's exponentially
> growing trajectory, we, as a society, need to be ready to pay the
> exponentially growing cost of funding such. ?There is an exponentially
> growing number of things physicians can do to help us live longer, and even
> though the costs of all such are dropping, dramatically, none of it is going
> to be free, especially the initial development of all such.
>
> We simply need some visionary leaders that can see the future, and to help
> is enjoy paying more of what we earn in life for something that is SOO worth
> it, and give up this blind, immoral, destructive, primitive, and evil
> attitude that "health care costs need to be controlled" as if we should
> expect them to stay what they were in the dark ages, when doctors could do
> nothing at all.
>
> Brent Allsop
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 28 01:34:13 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2012 18:34:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <000b01cd24df$053cf3c0$0fb6db40$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?


Folks,

>...I was just wondering if anyone else is as frustrated as I am about all
the blind to the future, talking heads, news pundats, politicians, and so
on, so bent on "Controlling the cost of health care"... Brent Allsop

Paradoxically, everything that is being done to control health care costs
actually go towards defeating controls.  Being a controls engineer, I tend
to see everything as a feedback system.  Medicare and medical insurance in
general are two factors which suppress the feedback loop from the patient to
the doctor.  When one has a good insurance policy, by working for a big
company for instance, it removes the negative aspect (cost) of
over-consuming health care.  My own company has a policy which pays for a
prole to go see the doctor every year.  So I do.  No reason, no
justification, but no reason to not.  So I do.  My doctor knows she has a
good paying customer, my insurance company, so she spends way too much time
with me, when she knows there is nothing wrong.  Then of course the LOLs who
really do need medical help don't get it.  Even I can see this system is
broken.  In response our government is breaking it.

spike







From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 06:10:41 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 07:10:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg=pcxERatiqj4oy=XXjHxxqPeahF=yprpGwvRDj1xyeA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 1:06 AM, Brent Allsop wrote:
> We simply need some visionary leaders that can see the future, and to help
> is enjoy paying more of what we earn in life for something that is SOO worth
> it, and give up this blind, immoral, destructive, primitive, and evil
> attitude that "health care costs need to be controlled" as if we should
> expect them to stay what they were in the dark ages, when doctors could do
> nothing at all.
>

Perhaps our leaders see the future and it frightens them.

Western society is faced with the closing jaws of an aging population
with extended lifespans and the 'death of work'.

Big changes are approaching faster than we think.


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Sat Apr 28 10:56:42 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 11:56:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg=pcxERatiqj4oy=XXjHxxqPeahF=yprpGwvRDj1xyeA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
 <CAL_armg=pcxERatiqj4oy=XXjHxxqPeahF=yprpGwvRDj1xyeA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4F9BCCEA.3020807@aleph.se>

On 28/04/2012 07:10, BillK wrote:
> Perhaps our leaders see the future and it frightens them. Western 
> society is faced with the closing jaws of an aging population with 
> extended lifespans and the 'death of work'.

Seeing the future and reacting to it rationally are two different 
things. Just consider the behavior of certain European governments in 
the face of unsustainable economic and demographic factors.

I think a fair number of political decisionmakers know the big 
challenges ahead well enough. There is no shortage of academics, think 
tanks and advisers talking about them, and those I have talked to 
certainly know plenty. Unfortunately it might not be politically 
rational to act on the challenges, since the voters often do not get it. 
Again, some voters are smarter and more informed than one might think. 
But if the perception is that not enough agree, then it will seem 
politically rational not to do anything. The result is a situation where 
action is delayed longer than any individual agent would actually want.

Technocratic and authoritarian systems replace this form of 
irrationality with a tendency towards bias instead. They are free to 
implement policies without support, but that means they will get weaker 
or no feedback. Mistakes, bureaucratic empire-building and groupthink 
are amplified.

Multi-layer systems of course can combine voter/politician irrationality 
with bias in wonderful ways. The principal-agent problem is deep and 
tricky to solve.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Sat Apr 28 12:23:08 2012
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 08:23:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral
Message-ID: <843AA71A-3ABF-4AB6-A65B-31CE99D7804A@alumni.Virginia.edu>

Here is a recent article relevant to this topic which to me supports the idea the healthcare costs are not responsive to market forces, at least under our current system in the US.  -Henry
Appendix removal: Huge sticker shock in study
http://medicalxpress.com/news254418856.html

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From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com  Sat Apr 28 13:33:29 2012
From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 06:33:29 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRG7X3Ge+W2qPFzGbFwt-42TZawy9orcT4uunmYQB2xTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
 <CALAdGNRG7X3Ge+W2qPFzGbFwt-42TZawy9orcT4uunmYQB2xTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1335620009.74852.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>



?----- Original Message -----
> From: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: 
> Sent: Friday, April 27, 2012 6:30 PM
> Subject: Re: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
> 
> Also, not all costs of health care are actually about health care.? Quite a
> bit is guarding against opportunistic lawyers, waiting for doctors to make
> the slightest mistake.

True but doctors themselves?share a fair degree of?culpability for the health care disaster.?Just because the American Medical Association is considered a right-wing organization and votes accordingly does not make it any less a?trade union?then?UAW, AFT,?or?the teamsters. And like any union, the AMA raises the barriers of entry into?the profession?for aspiring doctors. It all starts with medical school.

Every year millions of bright?hopeful college students in the U.S.?pay hundreds to thousands of dollars to get their medical school applications denied because the AMA needs to keep the supply of doctors low enough to justify?the price of medical treatment. The?typical?applicant that gets accepted?applies to approximately thirty schools at about fifty dollars each. Then you have to take out a few hundred thousand?dollars in student loans to pay the tution. Then you pay the state licensing fee to take your board exams. Should you pass?your board exams, then?you get to?be a resident and work 60-80 hour work weeks in a hospital?for crap pay.

What do you think this is all about? Do you think that it's because sleep-deprived interns have better medical judgement? Or that making life so difficult for beginning?doctors builds character? Or is it simply because the vested union members i.e. the?senior physicians?are out playing golf and the intern simply does not have enough colleagues to pick up the slack?

Sure it's really easy to respect the hard-working physician, the hero in the lab coat who went through hell for the privilege of charging you an arm and a leg to save your life. But if you do not see how?the unionized cartel that the physician belongs to has lowered your access to and ability to pay for the medicine you need, then you are not seeing clearly.

The AMA?has already had its fill by the time the?hyenas and the vultures show up.?

Stuart LaForge
?
"The state that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards, and its fighting by fools." -Thucydides.



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 28 15:29:04 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 08:29:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] emp again
Message-ID: <00bc01cd2553$a59ff7d0$f0dfe770$@att.net>

It's been about five years since we discussed electromagnetic pulse.  Have
we any EMP hipsters who are keeping up with the current thinking on that
topic?  If so, here's why I ask.  We are trying to decide what skills are
relevant to teach a kindergartner.  Most arithmetic is good for training the
mind in logic, but not worth mastering, for we have cell phones that can do
arithmetic.  Last I heard, an EMP would take out wire based communications
and cell phone towers but not the cell phones themselves.  They would still
be stand-alone computers, which could easily be charged with pedal-driven
electricity.  Last I heard, the prevailing opinion was the cell phones would
likely survive an EMP if the prole is not talking on it at the time.  Does
that sound right?  Source?

 

spike

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 15:59:19 2012
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 08:59:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 103, Issue 12
In-Reply-To: <mailman.600.1335610615.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.600.1335610615.17650.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7_j07RjdnNPSKip0rTekzFkS+Pt0SpbBSbsdJiz855Xw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 3:56 AM,  Brent Allsop
<brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:

snip

> ?I'd
> certainly delegate my support to you, Keith, as I consider you much more
> of an expert on this topic, than me. ?In other words, any camp you'd
> join, dictating what we should do, on such survey topics, my vote, and
> votes of anyone delegating to me, would follow you.

Actually, I would rather have thoughtful critics than followers, at
least at this stage.  If the combination of power satellites and
propulsion lasers makes physical and economic sense, then it should
pick up the support  needed.  The problem is that the number of people
who have the knowledge to work on it or critique it is so small.

Keith



From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 17:12:01 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 10:12:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] emp again
In-Reply-To: <00bc01cd2553$a59ff7d0$f0dfe770$@att.net>
References: <00bc01cd2553$a59ff7d0$f0dfe770$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTSnuTBm-3nmE0YXJTkeOh8ixJKfqawtMi9YV5fukgX8Q@mail.gmail.com>

Nope.  In fact, there are devices for sale that claim to be able to use
EMP to fry cell phones.  Use of them is, of course, blatantly illegal
for non-government-personnel in most industrialized countries, at
least in the typical situation where you're destroying someone else's
property without the property owner's consent.

Of course, anyone who would sell these is probably counting on that.
Mere ownership might not be a crime...but if it's a crime to try to use
it - do the courts look favorably on someone who claims a device
broke while it was being used for an attempted crime, thus preventing
that crime?

Further, there are quite a few places where at least basic arithmetic
is required and obvious electronic aids are either not permitted or are
a hindrance.  So it still seems appropriate to train children in basic
arithmetic: multiplication tables through 10*10, order of operations,
basic trig, and so on.

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 8:29 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> It?s been about five years since we discussed electromagnetic pulse.? Have
> we any EMP hipsters who are keeping up with the current thinking on that
> topic?? If so, here?s why I ask.? We are trying to decide what skills are
> relevant to teach a kindergartner.? Most arithmetic is good for training the
> mind in logic, but not worth mastering, for we have cell phones that can do
> arithmetic.? Last I heard, an EMP would take out wire based communications
> and cell phone towers but not the cell phones themselves.? They would still
> be stand-alone computers, which could easily be charged with pedal-driven
> electricity.? Last I heard, the prevailing opinion was the cell phones would
> likely survive an EMP if the prole is not talking on it at the time.? Does
> that sound right?? Source?
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 28 17:49:42 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 10:49:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE:  emp again
Message-ID: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2012 10:12 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] emp again


>> ...could easily be charged with pedal-driven electricity.  Last I heard, 
> the prevailing opinion was the cell phones would likely survive an EMP 
> if the prole is not talking on it at the time.  Does that sound right?
Source?...> spike

>...Nope.  In fact, there are devices for sale that claim to be able to use
EMP to fry cell phones.  Use of them is, of course, blatantly illegal for
non-government-personnel in most industrialized countries, at least in the
typical situation where you're destroying someone else's property without
the property owner's consent...

Clarification: an EMP caused by an exoatmospheric burst of a nuclear device.
I know we can fry local electronics with a local pulse, but what I meant was
a hostile power trying to destroy a western civilization by suddenly
removing its communications infrastructure.

>...Further, there are quite a few places where at least basic arithmetic is
required and obvious electronic aids are either not permitted or are a
hindrance.  So it still seems appropriate to train children in basic
arithmetic: multiplication tables through 10*10, order of operations, basic
trig, and so on...

Ja, but where I am going is a rethinking of what skills should be mastered
by the student, rather than which should be introduced.

I perhaps should have titled this thread "relevant skills movement" to start
with, even though the survivability of cell phones impacts the question
directly.

I have taught my son arithmetic functions, and he knows how to do all of
them.  But is it worth his valuable time to really master that, when he
carries a calculator in the form of a cell phone?  It is already far more
likely that he will carry a cell phone than a pencil and a piece of paper.  

I can argue it either way: mastery of hand calculation trains the mind in
ways that will be useful for writing software, or mastery of hand
calculation is as irrelevant (and time costly) as mastering how to extract
square roots by hand, for we have better ways to do those tasks today, and
furthermore you wouldn't trust your hand calcs anyway unless you could check
it with your phone.

So, if we recognize that mastery of arithmetic such as long division takes
time that can be used on more relevant skills but trains the mind, I can go
two routes with it: arithmetic either makes children smart or makes them
stupid.

Comments please.

spike




From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sat Apr 28 18:21:06 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 20:21:06 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Finally!
In-Reply-To: <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
References: <201204210334.q3L3YtPb006995@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <001a01cd1f73$d8ff1bf0$8afd53d0$@att.net> <4F92B3F7.1070300@canonizer.com>
 <004901cd1fc6$1cfada40$56f08ec0$@att.net> <4F92D647.5030305@canonizer.com>
 <4F931EDB.70205@speakeasy.net>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204281928120.27716@tau.ceti.pl>

On Sat, 21 Apr 2012, Alan Grimes wrote:

> Brent Allsop wrote:
> 
> > (which, by the way would
> > solve all world problems, including aging, disease, expensive, risky,
> > space travel... making these early space efforts still a complete moral
> > waist of time leading to the damnation of how many more people
> > unnecessarily rotting in the grave?)
> 
> I completely disagree on all points.

Right. I think too many people idealise conflict as something belonging to 
the world of idea, while in fact it is (I suspect) always rooted in the 
world of matter. Therefore we can talk ourselves dead but on the morning 
will grab the flint and go hunting our disputants. Or else we will be 
surprised.

However, even those who pretend to not understand a conflict will switch 
to their instincts when situation calls for it. Later forget about it all. 
Idealise something again.

Now, that's the source of the problem. Idealism not talking about what 
lives in a basement.

It is both tragic and fancy. Many such idealists spend their days babbling 
about memes and genes, and how we are just vehicles for them. Then, 
magically, they switch to talk how to solve world's problems like if they 
were caused by just some error in translation.

About uploading: I smell a swindle. I would have big difficulty convincing 
myself that I should give up myself and become, basically, a process in a 
computer. Unless I will be able to control the computer. And I don't think 
I will give away my physical properties, however small, in exchange for
living in a machine owned by some caring corporation.

Other than that, i.e. no corporations, no resigning, no expecting secular 
heavens, expecting some hell in a machine, no giving up control and 
wanting no swindles, I am very enthusiastic to uploading. But I guess my 
expectations drive the level too high to be realised by homo 
not-very-sapiens.

BTW, I am always ten times more enthusiastic to idea of downloading. A 
computer can be smashed by a troglodite (or pissed on by him).

> My reason for this mistrust is that when I express my point of view I
> don't get in reply "oh, that's interesting, my point of view is
> different" but rather "You're wrong and your philosophy is bad."
> Furthermore I have consistently opposed taking steps that would unleash
> a process that would render the universe incompatible with all known
> forms of DNA based life. The uploaders don't seem to recognize that as a
> priority at all.

Is there a place where prospective opponent could have a read about your 
philosophy? Like, I would really like to berate it but I tend to not 
criticize things that I have no idea about. So I cannot. It is very 
stressing situation, you know. I'd like to do something about it.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 18:28:02 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 19:28:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgzBWKzQY2ZNuFUpGq=c9Hg9wCm-cguLZTPe38C41JUMA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 6:49 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
> I have taught my son arithmetic functions, and he knows how to do all of
> them. ?But is it worth his valuable time to really master that, when he
> carries a calculator in the form of a cell phone? ?It is already far more
> likely that he will carry a cell phone than a pencil and a piece of paper.
>
> I can argue it either way: mastery of hand calculation trains the mind in
> ways that will be useful for writing software, or mastery of hand
> calculation is as irrelevant (and time costly) as mastering how to extract
> square roots by hand, for we have better ways to do those tasks today, and
> furthermore you wouldn't trust your hand calcs anyway unless you could check
> it with your phone.
>
> So, if we recognize that mastery of arithmetic such as long division takes
> time that can be used on more relevant skills but trains the mind, I can go
> two routes with it: arithmetic either makes children smart or makes them
> stupid.
>
>

I'm no expert on the strange creatures called children, but I have an
opinion.....

Yes, teach arithmetic, but follow it up with mental arithmetic. Like
playing chess, it improves the logic and analyzing functions. It will
come in handy for estimating and planning lots of things, including
strategy games. Which you should also introduce.

He will encounter many cases where mental maths shows that the
intuitive answer is wrong.

It will impress the checkout girls as well, when he can add up his
shopping and have the correct money ready, or tell them when they give
the wrong change due to a key-in error   ;)


BillK



From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 18:17:43 2012
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 11:17:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRFS6Qp+iU4PPzNmBbApUkKZxsg1XCv3NAWQCbq0SSDsw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> So, if we recognize that mastery of arithmetic such as long division takes
> time that can be used on more relevant skills but trains the mind, I can go
> two routes with it: arithmetic either makes children smart or makes them
> stupid.

It is a much better "waste" of time than most of the rest of what
they do.  If you are looking to optimize their training, this is one
of the last bits to consider - as in, good odds that you won't have
to go this far before optimizing to your satisfaction.

A much better optimization is to simply get them interested in
scientific or technical matters, at all.  For too many children,
these are presented as intense and complicated but without
obvious reward.  You and I know that there is a reward; it seems
obvious to us only because we have been aware of it for so long.
It is easy to lose track of the perspective of a child - or adult -
who has literally never known the joys of knowing how the
universe works, and can thus justify a believe that learning this
is not worth doing.


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 28 19:04:15 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 12:04:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgzBWKzQY2ZNuFUpGq=c9Hg9wCm-cguLZTPe38C41JUMA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgzBWKzQY2ZNuFUpGq=c9Hg9wCm-cguLZTPe38C41JUMA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00f401cd2571$b50c3260$1f249720$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2012 11:28 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 6:49 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
>>... I have taught my son arithmetic functions, and he knows how to do all 
> of them. ?But is it worth his valuable time to really master that...
arithmetic either makes children 
> smart or makes them stupid.
>
>

...

>...Yes, teach arithmetic, but follow it up with mental arithmetic...

Thanks BillK, I think you went straight to the best answer.

>...He will encounter many cases where mental maths shows that the intuitive
answer is wrong...

Ja mental arithmetic is useful, trains the mind, works well in everyday
life, impresses the girls, all of these.

>... he can add up his shopping and have the correct money ready...

Define please this term "money?"

>... or tell them when they give the wrong change...?

Define please this term "change?"

>... due to a key-in error   ;)  BillK

Ja, thanks for the reminder of how far we have already come.  Locally there
is no key-in error.  In those places that still have checkers, they scan bar
codes of the products and you swipe your card.  Where I do my regular
trading now, they have self-checkout, which I love because I don't need to
deal with actual proles.  It's all machines all the time.  They love it too
because the proles do not need to deal with actual geeks.  Everyone wins.  

spike








From spike66 at att.net  Sat Apr 28 19:32:06 2012
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 12:32:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRFS6Qp+iU4PPzNmBbApUkKZxsg1XCv3NAWQCbq0SSDsw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNRFS6Qp+iU4PPzNmBbApUkKZxsg1XCv3NAWQCbq0SSDsw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010201cd2575$98d1f3b0$ca75db10$@att.net>



>... On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> >...arithmetic either makes children smart or makes them stupid.

>...It is a much better "waste" of time than most of the rest of what they
do...

Ja, so I agree that to a large extent the answer depends on what is the
alternative and what is the goal.

In my own mind, the goal is admission to Berkeley.  A still more ambitious
goal is admission to Stanford, but that would require a really good
scholarship for I cannot afford Stanford.  It looks to me like Berkeley is
nearly as good an education and the Taxifornia taxpayer picks up most of the
tab.  So getting into Berkeley is equivalent to getting about a 30k a year
scholarship.

If these are the goals, then I must help my son master the subject matter on
the SAT.  I know how to do that, being an SAThlete myself.  So he would need
language arts and such, as well as math skills.

However...

I am anticipating an eminent landslide change in the way top-end colleges do
their recruitment and award scholarships.  Some of the skills they look for
currently are irrelevant.  For instance, that arithmetic example: is not a
far more relevant skill demonstrated by the ability to use one's own cell
phone to do a bunch of calculations?  Think of all the stuff your cell phone
does.  Have you mastered all of it?  I haven't.  I can take pictures and
video, take notes, send yak-o-grams, do calcs, but I am not very fast at any
of this.  A more useful skill than doing long division is the ability to
whip out a phone and do five long divisions in the same amount of time.  But
will standardized testing reflect this?  How will we deal with college
recruitment based on the use of all available resources?  We know that it
gives an inherent advantage to those who can invest heavily in enhancements,
but that doesn't come to an end when college starts or ends.  So why would
we want to ignore the skillset of mastering the use of mechanical/electronic
augmentation and enhancements?

spike






From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 19:51:20 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 20:51:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <00f401cd2571$b50c3260$1f249720$@att.net>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgzBWKzQY2ZNuFUpGq=c9Hg9wCm-cguLZTPe38C41JUMA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00f401cd2571$b50c3260$1f249720$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjpxvPSo72V4NOC5bPE=ERjgZ1sazesyomKhdEd4HxCzg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 8:04 PM, spike wrote:
> Define please this term "money?"

Money is the tokens I use to exchange for goods or services when I
don't want the time, date and list of items stored in my database
record.

> Ja, thanks for the reminder of how far we have already come. ?Locally there
> is no key-in error. ?In those places that still have checkers, they scan bar
> codes of the products and you swipe your card. ?Where I do my regular
> trading now, they have self-checkout, which I love because I don't need to
> deal with actual proles. ?It's all machines all the time. ?They love it too
> because the proles do not need to deal with actual geeks. ?Everyone wins.
>

Yes, even in the medieval UK we have these machines as well in the supermarkets.

The key-in error comes when your bill comes to 7.13 and you give the
checker a 10 note and 13 in coins. They have to stare in amazement,
then attempt to key-in 10.13 correctly so the till can calculate the
correct change for them.

We also have self-checkout lanes (or shoplifter lanes as they are
commonly known). They are supposed to be supervised by staff, but it
is so boring that they don't bother much. It is easy to have a
distraction where one person needs the staff to rush over to help
while the other shoplifter walks stuff through on another till.
I don't use them unless I only have 1 or 2 items and I'm in a hurry.
Mainly because I don't wish to do unpaid work for the supermarket. I'd
rather loiter in the till queue, people watching and musing on their
dress and the items they have purchased. There is often a queue for
the self-checkout tills as well, so there is not much time difference.

You should also teach probability and stats as soon as possible.
Financial maths is also very useful. Compound interest is very
relevant to amassing debt. Coming out of college with 100,000 debt
load should be avoided if possible.


BillK

BillK



From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Sat Apr 28 20:10:15 2012
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Sat, 28 Apr 2012 13:10:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CADYziYBMsm7=XSi=eWe-G7xV9EQeR1v6X56Mm2xQMzvAco3vDw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> I have taught my son arithmetic functions, and he knows how to do all of
> them.  But is it worth his valuable time to really master that, when he
> carries a calculator in the form of a cell phone?
>

Short answer, yes.  A few years ago, I was teaching beginning nursing
students.  They were alllowed to use calculators for even the most trivial
functions, and most needed them for even such things as multiplying by 10.
If you led them by hand, they were able to to do basic functions by hand,
but they weren't "fluent".  Because they had not mastered arithmetic, the
calculator was a magic box, literally.  They were totally unable to
recognize errors (such as multiplying when they meant to divide).  They
would write down the most absurd answers, just because that was what the
box told them.

I think it is difficult for those of us who are fluent in at least some
areas of mathematics to realize how much of it is internalized and not
natural.  Learning more advanced mathematics without thoroughly mastering
hand arithmetic because you have a calculator is like trying to learn a
foreign language without learning basic vocabulary, just because you can
have a dictionary.  You might be able to squeak through the test, but you
will never converse freely and will quickly forget what you learned.

I second the suggestion for mental arithmetic.  I think this will give you
the most bang for the buck, and rapidly build mathematical intuition.

--s
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Apr 29 10:20:58 2012
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 29 Apr 2012 12:20:58 +0200
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE:  emp again
In-Reply-To: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
Message-ID: <4F9D160A.3050107@aleph.se>

I see two important aspects of learning mental arithmetic:

One is quick calculations while standing at the whiteboard in front of 
your team, working out something together. Being able to handle the 
exponents and mantissas right when you do an order-of-magnitude 
estimation of something very useful - having to look at a phone while 
doing it tends to break the flow. Similarly for many other situations, 
like checking that the store total is accurate (or when doing Fermi 
calculations for fun while queuing).

Second, learning how to do long division is an excellent introduction to 
algorithms. Recognizing that one can break down computations into parts, 
see that some methods are better than others, recognize that one can 
both blackbox the method or dive into it, and so on, gives a great sense 
of the underlying logic of math and computation.

Third, learning to maintain mental representations is good training of 
working memory. I have not seen any studies showing enhancing effects of 
maths training beyond maths, but I would not be surprised if it boosted 
frontal lobe control. You learn to maintain several chunks of abstract 
information and to run mental algorithms.

Fourth, there is general numeracy. Being able to check orders of 
magnitude is useful. Seeing how easy it is to slip with manual 
calculation makes you appreciate calculators so much more - and distrust 
people's numerical claims.


As for areas of math beyond arithmetic, I would also suggest looking at 
probability. Very easy to start by playing games and doing statistics. I 
like geometry, but probability/stats help make you more rational.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University



From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Apr 29 16:25:00 2012
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 29 Apr 2012 18:25:00 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] sinclair zx spectruim is 30
In-Reply-To: <4F96F671.1080204@aleph.se>
References: <006601cd2241$d086db90$719492b0$@att.net>
 <4F96F671.1080204@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1204291712530.7917@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 24 Apr 2012, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> On 24/04/2012 18:43, spike wrote:
> >
> > Guys do you remember these?
> >
> Oh yes... this is how I spent the 80s, more or less.
> 
> I need to send a congratulation card to my speccy. It is nicely packaged next
> to my ZX81 up in Stockholm.

As an adolescent, I wanted to have a relationship with Spectrum. However, 
I ended up jumping from one computer to another, learning things in a 
process. By the time I settled with Amiga few years later, I had already 
known three and a half programming languages (and heard this or that of 
few others). Paradoxically, having my own hardware dumbed me down :-). And 
this state of mind persisted up to these days.

BTW, Commodore PET turned 35 in January and Amiga 1000 will turn 27 in 
July.

One thing I like about old machines is that they were selfsufficient. They 
came with tools, so every owner could plug them to the wall and start 
writing software for himself.

Nowadays - Arduinos, which are barely comparable to various ZX models, 
but with pitiful amounts of RAM... Ip(h|)(a|o)(d|ne)s, with no onboard 
compilers nor interpreters at all... Cellphones, at least, have one
limited Java version - but, well, for me it is twelve years or more since 
Java stopped being sexy. OTOH, it is better to have it than to have not.

Fortunately, PC is still in use. And Android tablet can be supplied with 
keyboard, so at least in theory it can be converted into normal computing 
device, capable of serving its own needs. And if I really wanted, I can 
have something more hardcore, like BeagleBone (but I don't think it could 
be bootstrapped without PC).

> The wonder of the machine was that it was graspable: all aspects were more or
> less known, from the hardware over the assembler to the limited operating
> system. One could in principle understand it completely, no aspects were
> secret or inaccessible.

I read this about every older computer from time to time. Some of them 
have been first programmed by some legendary engineers, who sat in front 
of the panel and typed in hex or binary from their memory.

A similar contemporary effort is, for example, Scheme-from-scratch:

http://code.google.com/p/scheme-from-scratch/wiki/StartFromScratch

Note the guy advises using DOSemu for DOS thing, because under newer 
Windows one supposedly couldn't do such interesting operation as entering 
raw bytes.

> This kind of machine made you very aware of the importance of optimizing code.
> Kids today don't know how good they have it and waste so much resources...

While reading Jon Bentley's "Programming Pearls" some 15 y ago, he made 
one fancy remark, something like "today, people say like, one megabyte 
here, one there and now we can write a program". It is "gigabyte there, 
gigabyte here" nowadays. 

Weeeell. I sure can find a good use for a gigabyte. And I won't mind a 
terabyte a bit later. And while most programmers are spoilt by "free" 
resources, there are some who enjoy optimising, so let's not worry too 
much. After all, there are only 10 kinds of programmers and the zero kind 
is still possible to be found.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From stefano.vaj at gmail.com  Sun Apr 29 20:03:58 2012
From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj)
Date: Sun, 29 Apr 2012 22:03:58 +0200
Subject: [ExI] relevant skills movement, was: RE: emp again
In-Reply-To: <4F9D160A.3050107@aleph.se>
References: <00ea01cd2567$4ad20730$e0761590$@att.net>
 <4F9D160A.3050107@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPoR7a5D+C9O_dD4KO6nQ3FoJixnfFdxJwSkWoGp1KY84jua4A@mail.gmail.com>

On 29 April 2012 12:20, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> I see two important aspects of learning mental arithmetic:
> Fourth, there is general numeracy.
>

Two as in... four? :-)

But yes, I think that "orders of magnitude" is really a way of thinking. My
son, age 12, is bordering on the idiot savant in respect of mental
arithmetic, but he is in turn amazed how I can get to results that are
"almost right" much faster than him.

-- 
Stefano Vaj
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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Mon Apr 30 19:18:49 2012
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan)
Date: Mon, 30 Apr 2012 12:18:49 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <1335813529.5887.YahooMailNeo@web160604.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>



I suspect much of this is pessimistic bias in action. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_the_Rational_Voter#Pessimistic_bias

Regards,

Dan
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Apr 30 20:49:53 2012
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 30 Apr 2012 21:49:53 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Milky Way escape velocity
Message-ID: <CAL_armiY0tk-11rCPDYbNLbsH0D1a4KgLAAkBEkGjLkOhO8VBA@mail.gmail.com>

We recently mentioned the velocity required to escape the Milky Way
galaxy - over 1 million miles per hour.

And now they've found some rogue stars moving at these tremendous
speeds and heading out of the galaxy!

<http://phys.org/news/2012-04-rogue-stars-ejected-galaxy-intergalactic.html>
Quote:
Rogue stars ejected from the galaxy are found in intergalactic space
April 30, 2012

Vanderbilt astronomers have identified nearly 700 rogue stars that
appear to have been ejected from the Milky Way galaxy. When these
stars received the powerful kick that knocked them out of the galaxy,
they were small, yellow stars like the sun. But in the
multi-million-year journey they evolved into red giant stars. Credit:
Michael Smelzer, Vanderbilt University

It's very difficult to kick a star out of the galaxy.

In fact, the primary mechanism that astronomers have come up with that
can give a star the two-million-plus mile-per-hour kick it takes
requires a close encounter with the supermassive black hole at the
galaxy's core.
------------


The article doesn't mention any planets orbiting these rogue stars,
but maybe they just didn't look for them.
And the encounter with the black hole might have torn the planets away.

BillK


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Mon Apr 30 22:53:21 2012
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Mon, 30 Apr 2012 18:53:21 -0400
Subject: [ExI] "Controlling the cost of health care" an immoral idea?
In-Reply-To: <1335620009.74852.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
References: <4F9B3493.7010302@canonizer.com>
 <CALAdGNRG7X3Ge+W2qPFzGbFwt-42TZawy9orcT4uunmYQB2xTw@mail.gmail.com>
 <1335620009.74852.YahooMailNeo@web164505.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFioFeaN-qgA6R24fpQ9KExS-cyppOxR7FdmGurKEUE1eg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Apr 28, 2012 at 9:33 AM, The Avantguardian
<avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Sure it's really easy to respect the hard-working physician, the hero in the lab coat who went through hell for the privilege of charging you an arm and a leg to save your life. But if you do not see how?the unionized cartel that the physician belongs to has lowered your access to and ability to pay for the medicine you need, then you are not seeing clearly.

### Wow, an anti-market government policy (systematic suppression of
the number of medical care providers) being criticized, albeit
indirectly!

Not all is lost. One day enough people will see that most of
government regulations are destructive, and then maybe they will stop
voting (as I did, a long time ago).

Rafal