[ExI] The silent PV revolution

[Mirco Romanato]

Il 08/04/2012 17:49, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
> On Sun, Apr 08, 2012 at 05:16:42PM +0200, Mirco Romanato wrote:

>>> Are you actually saying that renewables are a scam, to milk the 
>>> gullible?
>> I think so.

>> A very large chunk of the renewables are simply a scam of the
>> rich, connected, informed against the poor, unconnected and
>> uninformed.

> So you think we don't need renewables?

If "renewables" are not profitable, how can they be sustainable?

> That peak fossil does not happen in reality?

Political peak oil or mineral peak oil?
True or false, peak oil is a small nut to crack if you let the free
enterprises and the market to find a solution or more solutions.
You are smart, intelligent, informed, but you are not so smart, so
intelligent and so informed to be able to choose for others. Neither I am.

> It's an interesting theory. Do you have evidence for your theory?

Where did I say peak oil is true or false?
Please, do no argue pro something I didn't argue against.


>> Every one pushing for an investment needing subsides to return a
>> profit is, effectively, pushing for a scam. And scam have a bitter
>> end, like a bust, default, bankrupt declaration.

> Well, we now have grid parity in California.

Is this with or without subsides or other legislation forcing utilities
to buy the power produced at rates higher than market levels?
If it is without, are you admitting that all the previously installed PV
installations were not a good investment and needed someone to subside
them so the people installing them would, maybe, be able to turn a small
profit after 20 years?

Does California have the higher energy prices of all US because of silly
absurd legislation?

Does the profit of the current PV installations have nothing to do with
Mr. Bernanke inundating the economy with paper/electronic Fed. Notes
(aka US $) and reducing the burden of indebted people at the expenses of
savers and debasing the currency?

> I would call that as a resounding success of when governmental
> interventions work -- by bootstrapping a market.

When government intervention work we will sky on natural water snow on
Mercury surface (Sun side)

But are you talking about the US government or the German government?

>> The rest of the chit chat is only a distraction.

>> I want see how the German economy will fare when they will close
>> down their nuclear power (not only talk about it). I want see how
>> many jobs

> You don't sound informed. Please do look at the numbers. Both in 
> Germany, and in Japan.

My infos say Japans have just posted the first trade deficit in decades,
thank to the oil/NG imports to compensate the nuclear offline.
They could support the 200% GDP debt being big savers and exporters. Now
they are becoming old(er) and net importers. They are dancing on the
edge of a cliff, very high.

>> will flee to some saner place (like Poland). I want see how you
>> will be
> The renewable programm is a resounding success, job-wise.

What is your definition of success?
Q-cell just defaulted, your PV industry is no more. The PV industry is
just China. Do you count on solar to power the heavy industries?

>> able to keep the heavy industry going without nuclear energy. Maybe
>> with coal?
> Again, you're confabulating something. Go get the numbers. They'll
> tell you the real story.


>> Your solar cell industry is bust, legally dead. The brains are
>> leaving for China or somewhere else.
> I'm not sure what drugs you're on.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/q-cells-files-for-insolvency-as-solar-bankrupcties-rise.html
Q-Cells Files for Insolvency as Solar Bankrupcties Rise

>> It is not profitable and it never was. And it was unable to
>> compete against asian low cost jobs and more efficient resources
>> allocation.

> Are you objecting that we're getting really cheap PV from Asia?

No, I'm only stating the awful reality.
All your incentive have only financed someone else PV industries and do
nothing but damage your overall economy.

> That sounds kinda anti-competition.

You sound kinda deflecting.


>> I want to see how much the PV incentives will stay, without a
>> national industry to receive the benefit of this policy and
>> advocating for it.
> 
> The FITs are being slashed (the latest numbers I'm hearing are up to
> 70%, not sure what the final verdict will be) because that mere 4% of
> PV destroys the profits of utilities, since effectively removing peak
> where the profit is. PV doesn't favor monopolies, it's a real
> end-user owned energy source.

We will see how much this will be true without incentives.

> That's not a bug, it's a feature. Grid parity in Germany is only a
> few more years away,

I would not bet the farm on this, mainly because without incentives and
with the economic disaster awaiting in the not so distant future prices
of many things will be re-evaluated and re-priced.

> at which point the only way (save of lobbying
> for solar tax or demand tax-backed guaranteed quotas for utilities)
> how the utilities can cope is by raising prices, which will of course
> make renewable look even better.

If it is so, more power to PV.
Just no incentives, tax or other against or for specific targets.
Let them live and walk on their feet or die.

Mirco