[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Subject: Re: [ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

On Sat, Feb 25, 2012 at 12:01:22PM +0100, Stefano Vaj wrote:

>> I see the point, and wonder whether in fact we are not already in such 
> a trap.  OTOH, rather than going for a replacement with lower-EROI
alternatives 
> which is becoming increasingly unlikely for the reasons explained 
> therein... Stefano

>...We pretty much know where to sink the bulk of the money and resources we
still have (which are going, going, gone) -- it's increasing electrification
wherever possible, energy conservation in nonessential areas, synfuels,
thin-film PV and so on -- I could give a long list but nobody will read it,
so I won't...  Eugen 


Reading up on the notion of EROI has been an astonishing and appalling
revelation.  I am convinced the model is useful and informative.  I am
surprised at how many sophisticated researchers dismiss the idea.  Perhaps
it is because they are looking at the short run, the next 10 to 20 years
only.

There is another fallacy which I see is failure to think through energy
alternatives end to end.  A perfect example I see is calculating the cost of
energy from PVs without considering the cost of load leveling, which is
already the dominant cost, if one does not assume the power company does
everything for us.

My own notions go towards the more radical conservation techniques, such as
the single seat sub-500 kg class ape haulers.  These ideas are far too often
dismissed as silliness, but I think in ten years they will be front and
center.

I am also thinking about retrofitting of semi-trucks with vastly undersized
engines, such that their top speed in still wind and level ground is about
50 mph, 80 kph, which should double their fuel economy.

A few weeks ago I posted a question about the fuel savings from slowing
cargo ships.  It works just as I estimated: there are big fuel savings from
tying up capital for a little longer on the sea.  Fuel can be saved by
slight changes in routes and schedules to better take advantage of
prevailing winds.  Fuel is getting more expensive, capital is becoming
cheaper.  

In the long run, I foresee a future in which physical objects move slower
than the pace to which we are so fondly accustomed, but data will move
faster and in greater quantities.  So in the immediately foreseeable future,
I can imagine highly automated milli-factories that produce goods more
locally, moving information more and finished goods less.  We can adjust:
the US has been in what appears to me as a declining average standard of
living (depending on how it is measured) for the last several years.  There
is more stuff we can cut, life goes on.

spike