[ExI] Doomsday Oil Price: (was RIP: Peak Oil)

[Adrian Tymes]

On Tue, Feb 28, 2012 at 12:10 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it> wrote:
> Il 28/02/2012 08:27, Eugen Leitl ha scritto:
>> Solar PV will be cheaper than dirty coal in less than 10 years, at
>> which point the whole debate will look very silly in the retrospect.
>
> In the next ten years is not now.
>
> If I'm in high water, being able to swim the next week will not prevent
> me from drowning now.

Within the next ten years:

* Earth's total human population will not decrease by 1% or more,
either over the next 10 years together or between any two consecutive
years.  Indeed, odds are that Earth's total human population will
continue to increase over this time period.

* Humanity's total volume of food produced will, likewise, not decrease
by 1% or more, and will likely increase.

* Humanity will not face starvation far more severe than it does today,
though local political situations may continue to deny food to most
people in certain areas.

* The net total energy output of all of humanity's power plants will
increase.  This applies to all types, to non-vehicular plants (typically
large, immobile,electricity-generating facilities), and to vehicular plants
(such as car engines).

Based on the data presently available, this - the null hypothesis, in
effect - seems very likely.

That does not sound like we are presently in a situation where we can
not afford to divert resources into increased energy production.