[ExI] self-driving cars again

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of Kelly Anderson
Subject: Re: [ExI] self-driving cars again

On Sat, Jul 14, 2012 at 12:07 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Slate reasons this is a show stopper for auto^2s: they only go the 
>> speed limit always, and no one wants to go that slow:

>...I don't see why they should not go faster than people...

Besides the still-unsolved problems of legal liability, note that the
difficulty of the control problem posed by auto^2 scales by a function far
more complicated than any known polynomial relationship to the speed.  Some
form of auto^2 existed back in the mid 80s.  When I was up on the range at
China Lake setting up for an astronomical observation, there were marines
out there with an automated jeep.  It was going about walking speed.  Twenty
years later, I was at the first DARPA challenge, where about thirty entrants
attempted to herd their auto^2s over a desert road at an average speed of 20
mph.  All failed, every one.

I would argue that it might eventually be possible to go really fast with
auto^2, but the problem is vastly more difficult than it sounds.  There are
a large number of effects that can be ignored completely at small speeds,
but which increase dramatically with speed.

Thune is offering a free class through Udacity on programming auto^2s.
Check it out.

>> ... So when you are stuck in the traffic, the masters of the universe
will be hurtling past at 200 mph.

>...I agree with Bill here.. I think the auto-autos will go much faster,
though 200 mph might be a bit of an overstatement. -Kelly

I can easily imagine it taking a full decade of proofing before auto^2s are
allowed to go faster than the current speed limits, and even then, I can
imagine they wouldn't do it because of the challenges of interacting with
carbon based drivers.

Here's what I expect to see very soon: robot racing, probably on a dirt oval
flat track.  That would be a really cool control problem to try to solve.
In flat track, the cars actually have their wheels turned right while they
go left: the back end is splayed outboard and the wheels spinning.  I can
imagine something like half scale sprint cars:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyWwSG5a5gk

so the cars would be about 100 pound affairs with 500cc single cylinder
motorcycle engines for instance, and could be built for about a couple
thousand dollars, not including the cost of the software and sensors.  That
will be a really fun sport to watch.  I predict some form of robot racing
will show up in the next five years.

spike