[ExI] self driving cars

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] self driving cars

On Sat, Jun 2, 2012 at 12:36 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>>... Seniors here are now responsible for more accidents than young
drivers.

>...Because an aging population produces more seniors?...Probably 2030 for
widespread driverless cars... BillK
_______________________________________________


I suspect the market penetration of software-driven cars will be remarkably
fast if we do it right.  Brad Templeton had it exactly right: we must do all
robo-cars in such a way that they require no infrastructure change.  Reason:
anything that requires government decision-making or any actual change of
anything currently in place will move a glacier pace compared to what
individuals with money can do themselves.  

We have two states with legislatures that allow robo-cars (Nevada and
California) and an enormous market with pent-up demand for these things.  We
have plenty of people who have money to put down, to solve problems that
currently have no good solution, such as the need for an occasional drive to
shopping for the elderly.  We have large populations who can legally drive,
but are dangerous to themselves and other drivers because of ageing eyes and
reflexes, and in some cases impaired my medications such as powerful
painkillers.  These do not want to resort to assisted living: the cost of
that for four months will buy a decent new car.  They do not want someone to
bring them the goods: they want to go see them firsthand.  We get that.
They want some interaction with the world.  They do not want public transit:
that has been urged on us for decades: we don't like it, for so many
practical reasons.

I contend there is a huge existing potential market with both investors and
consumers holding PLENTY of money and plenty of demand, a public and private
safety benefit, no infrastructure modification required, very little legal
infrastructure modification required, and a demonstrated technology.  This
market will grow quickly, next five to ten years-ish.

Attention all investors who didn't drop your money into that absurd Facebook
farce: get ready to invest your brains out.  There will be fortunes made in
the next five years, investing in both add-on modifications to existing
ape-haulers and in manufacturing them as self-drivers from the ground up.

spike