[ExI] Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?

[Kelly Anderson]

It should come as no surprise that I lean strongly towards the
optimists. One reason is because the pessimists have been playing
their game for hundreds if not thousands of years, and they have never
been right except temporarily. I do worry about bumps in the road. I
do not worry about where the road is headed, if we avoid existential
threats.

I do worry about one aspect of the Diamandis Abundance model... he
claims that the world economy will be much improved as the bottom
billions begin to contribute economically using the now ubiquitous
cell phones. And that is a noble thought, as well as a noble goal. I
love business ideas that help the very poorest among us. Got to work
better than aid. So the problem is, if there is a depopulation event,
such as a big flu outbreak, or mass starvation because of something
akin to the Irish potato famine hitting corn, rice or wheat, and we
lose a billion people, then will the magic fall apart? And if so, for
how long?

I look at the recent flooding of hard drive plants in Thailand as an
example of a bump in the road. How has it affected Kryder's Law? I
can't find good numbers yet... but I suspect it hasn't affected it at
all. It has made hard drives more expensive for a while... but we even
seem to be coming out of that a bit now. I'd bet in 5 years you will
see a wiggle in the price per bit graph, but overall, the curve will
still be followed, despite the flood.

I also don't think the pessimists give technology the credit it
deserves for solving the insoluble problems of the past. And given
technology's penchant for pulling our asses out of the fire in the
past, where is the expectation that it won't also do this in the
future generated? People have been creating solutions from rocks for
Odin's sake for 3 million years!

The article talked about the coming water shortage. Diamandis talks
about water abundance through the application of relatively simple and
relatively cheap technology. We will know soon who is right on this
particular matter. I'm betting on water abundance. Dirty water isn't
that rare. Salt water isn't that rare. Clean water can be manufactured
from either of these given the right technology, which has already
been developed (though perhaps not yet adapted for use in the 3rd
world), and an energy source.

The real answer to the question probably lies in the future of energy.
I find it curious that Eugen, who promotes the German approach to
solar as being a great solution, is among the energy pessimists when
it comes to oil. For heaven's sake Eugen... look at the history of
Germany... during WWII and the preceding decade, you brilliant Germans
turned coal into gasoline to run your economy and your war machine. Or
is teaching that part of history forbidden because the Nazi's could
not possibly have done ANYTHING correctly?

-Kelly