[ExI] Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

[BillK]

Two years ago the Rockefeller Foundation produced a report about
future development that presented four possible scenarios for the
future.
It is different to most of the future speculations that we consider
because it is not so much concerned about particular 'gee-whiz'
technologies but rather about how society and governments might cope
with future changes.

It was widely reviewed at the time (in 2010) with much criticism from
the web mainly aimed at one scenario (the Big Brother controlling
government scenario). But they presented *four* scenarios. I thought
it might be interesting to review them after two years have elapsed,
to see how the world has changed in the meantime.

The full pdf report can be downloaded here:
<http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/news/publications/scenarios-future-technology>

One of the more calmer reviews is here:
<http://www.techsoupglobal.org/blog/how-can-philanthropy-and-technology-co-evolve-development>

The four scenarios sketched out in 2010 were:

LOCK STEP: “A world of tighter top-down government control and more
authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen
pushback.”

In this world, working in the human rights arena will become more
difficult. Technology innovation is driven by government and national
security concerns, and surveillance technology is increasingly used to
monitor citizens, leading to the “fracture” of the World Wide Web as
we know it and to decreased entrepreneurship. This, however, leads to
citizens’ uprising.



CLEVER TOGETHER: “A world in which highly coordinated and successful
strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide
issues”.

This scenario unfolds an increase in international collaborations and
a dwindling of the power of nation states. Transparency and
accountability increases as data becomes more available and as the use
of technology becomes more important to the work of philanthropists.
Technology innovations in energy and water also take prominence.


HACK ATTACK: “An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which
governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations
emerge.”

Coined the doom decade (2010-2020), this scenario points to how
financial and overall resource scarcity, as well as trade disputes,
result in a breaking of partnerships, sparking wars and conflicts,
which are played out through the use of technology. Confidence in the
use of technology decreases as hacking increases and criminals become
more versed in the use of counterfeits. This world, which is filled
with IP address thefts, scamming, and viruses affects technology
innovation.


SMART SCRAMBLE: “An economically depressed world in which individuals
and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing
set of problems.”

Within such a scenario, the gap between rural and urban areas
increases because non-urban areas have difficulty gaining access to
ICT due to a lack of investment in ICT infrastructure. As technology
development resources diminish and economic and political instability
increases in the developed world, highly skilled migrants return home,
spreading knowledge to their native countries and “do-it-yourself
innovation” develops. And other problems in the technology innovation
ecosystem, such as unreliable Internet and difficulty in accessing
capital and markets, persist.


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BillK