[ExI] The silent PV revolution

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Mar 29, 2012 at 07:13:38PM +0200, Alfio Puglisi wrote:
> During the last few days, I have realized that something very interesting
> is going to happen on electricity markets this summer: there is a
> non-negligible chance that a major country is going to have so much
> production from solar photovoltaics that it will have to *export*
> a sizable fraction of it.

This happens quite regularly in Germany, where soon 1/3rd of peak
demand will be covered by PV. You might have noticed that the nuclear
France imported german renewable, including solar energy this winter.
Too much electric heating. The same happens during summer, when 
reactors are shut down because they'd otherwise overheat the
rivers.

So, yes, local and net exports can and do happen.
 
> The facts: Italy has a population of about 60 million, and peak electricity
> usage that hovers around 50 GW on working days, and 40 GW on weekends.
> 
> This February, mid-day PV production peaked at almost 10 GW. That's about
> 330% more than last February. Generous feed-in tariffs have fueled this
> crazy growth. Given the explosive results, tariffs are being slashed every
> few months, but PV installations show no signs of slowing down.
> 
> The graph of hour-by-hour prices in the electricity market
> is mightily interesting: http://www.mercatoelettrico.org/It/  (top left

See http://www.renewablesinternational.net/the-afternoon-dip/150/537/33320/
and http://www.transparency.eex.com/en/Statutory%20Publication%20Requirements%20of%20the%20Transmission%20System%20Operators/Power%20generation/Actual%20solar%20power%20generation 

> graph, red line is instantaneous price): two peaks at 9am and 8pm, while in
> the rest of the day the market is flooded with PV-generated energy, which
> keeps prices down. A few years ago the shape was totally different - a
> high plateau during the entire day.
> 
> in 2011, PV generation in August was 5x the one in February. If the trend
> holds, Italy risks to have too much electricity for its internal market at
> certain times (starting from noon at weekends, and working down from
> there), and will have to export. That's quite a change, since Italy has
> been a chronic energy importer for entire *decades*. Countless electrons
> inside the power lines coming in from France, Switzerland and Slovenia will
> have to suddenly move in a direction they have never witnessed before.

Soon, you'll have "problems" like http://www.renewablesinternational.net/yes-we-have-no-base-load/150/523/29353/
 
> Traditional energy giants are lobbying like hell the government to regulate
> the market back into something more manageable (for them), but I think it's
> too late. Gas-burning plants, designed to spin up during demand spikes,
> are already  being priced out.

Grid parity is only a couple years away, especially in Mezzogiorno.
 
> Is there anyone out there closely following the same developments, or it's
> just me having unhealthy interests? :-)

No, it's not just you.

In fact as the prices have now fallen sufficiently I intend to start with
experimental setups (some ~600 Wp insular) of my own this year.