[ExI] Peak Oil -- Amory Lovins

[Kelly Anderson]

On Thu, May 31, 2012 at 2:45 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Thu, May 31, 2012 at 01:56:07AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> Honestly, from what he said, he did take them into account. He was
>> talking about global peaks. We can disagree with him in our gut all we
>> want, but he's got the real numbers... and I would hate to bet against
>> him on this stuff.
>
> You're taking one guy, on his word, without knowing the details
> which were not subjected to peer review? Really?

Eugen, don't have a knee jerk reaction just because you don't like
what he says. Nobody gets invited to TED once, let alone twice if they
are not serious.

Read his bio:
http://www.ted.com/speakers/amory_lovins.html

Listen to the talks. Then decide for yourself. You seem to be having a
religious reaction, rather than a rational one and I think you're
better than that. Lovin's answers to the problems we face aren't the
same answers everyone else is giving. Hear him out.

>> > If the Chinese and Indians figure out a way to leapfrog our technology from
>> > the latter 20th century, then I would agree we may have seen peak demand for
>> > oil.  But it isn't clear that they will do that, in which case they will
>> > want their personal ape-haulers and will drive the wheels off of them, just
>> > as we did.  The demand on oil will be astonishing.
>>
>> I don't know the basis for Lovin's claims precisely. I am pretty sure
>
> If you don't know what his claims are precisely, why are you wasting
> your time, and ours?

I know what his claims are. I just don't know the details of how he
arrives at the conclusions he arrives at. He did quote a Duechebank
report regarding peak oil demand... If you really want to know, I
would advise getting his book, "Reinventing Fire"... while I have not
read it, I have read excerpts and what he says sounds pretty rational
to me.

> Amory Lovins has 331 hits on The Oil Drum. A possibly more focused
> search still gives 59 hits http://www.theoildrum.com/search/apachesolr_search/%22amory%20lovins%22
> I'm not going to read them, but perhaps you should.

This is pretty typical of the stuff on the oil drum comments...
"I'm surprised by your lack of familiarity with Lovins. He is widely
published, a recognized international expert on renewable energy, and
someone that everyone interested in peak oil solutions should pay
attention to.
Read Winning the Oil Endgame cover to cover and let us know what you think."

>> he was talking globally though. If we do reach peak demand prior to
>> peak supply, that's good for all of us! Add one to the optimism
>> column... hopefully.

Eugen... If you want to be well versed on energy policy, and I think
you do, then don't you owe it to yourself to read things from more
than one source? Lovin's approach is BIG, and bold. He wants to fix a
lot of large problems all together, and by solving all these big
problems together, rather than tackling little bits independently, he
arrives at a solution that really sounds plausible.

I would recommend you listen to the two TED talks if nothing else. I
have been a subscriber to his snail mail mailing list for a couple of
years, and get letters in the mail from his organization pretty
frequently. He runs a real organization, with real money and real
clients.

-Kelly